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South Australian Container Trade Forecasts
11 | South Australian Container Trade Forecasts
The vast majority of containerised trade passes through Port Adelaide, with only negligible volumes of containers through Port Pirie / Port Lincoln.
Predominant containerised exports include the export of fortified and unfortified wine, hay & fodder and cereal grain and pulses, whilst imports mainly include consumer products, along with manufacturing goods and some construction-based goods. Recent strong import volumes can be attributed to solar farm projects, which are expected to continue for the next few years.
Figure 5 – Base Containerised Trade Forecast to 2070 (Black Quay & FPH 2020)
Whilst some sectors may experience further containerisation, it is expected that the majority of the shift towards containerisation has already occurred and therefore growth will be more closely linked to GSP and population related factors.
Containerised trade through Flinders Ports is expected to rise from 410,000 TEUs in FY20 to approximately 1,254,000 TEUs in FY70. This could increase marginally to 1,481,000 TEU’s where upper case population forecasts are realised (influencing imports predominately).
The baseline containerised trade has been forecast to 2070 and is illustrated below. At the lower end, a shift in contestable trade could raise Port Adelaide trade by a minimum of 150,000 TEU per year. However, in theory, this could increase to as much as 2 million TEU, depending on the amount of services captured.
Alongside investment from FPH, a change will also require South Australian and Federal Government investment in rail improvements in the Adelaide Hills. This could require between $0.5billion and $3billion.
The figure below provides the lower end only, but also combines this with the proposed alternative SA population forecast for a true upper limit container trade scenario. This results in a 2070 container trade of approximately 1.63 million TEU.
Figure 6 Flinders Ports Ultimate Container Trade Scenario (Black Quay, 2020)
Additionally, multi governmental and thirdparty investments and buy ins will be required, including but not necessarily limited to: • Renewal SA and DIT (Influence in terms of landside access to the port and associated logistics land planning) • Adjacent land holder buy-ins (several key parties) • Wider Government transport planning and support
