Lamorinda 2019 Q4 Market Update

LAMORINDA 2019 Q4 MARKET UPDATE Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MARTIN HOMES TEAM CHANGING HOUSES INTO HOMES MartinHomesTeam.com

LAMORINDA 2019 Q4 MARKET UPDATE Below is a summary of Multiple Listing Service (“MLS”) data for Lamorinda residential detached home sales over the last twelve months from January 2019 to December 2019 (the prior-year comparison is from January 2018 to December 2018).

In summary:

• 2019 delivered mixed results for Lamorinda real estate - Lamorinda average sales price is now $1.69M,

down 1.3%, average sales price per square foot is $646, also down 1.3%, and average days on market is 29 days, up 23.3%.

The mixed lackluster results were driven by cautionary buyer sentiment from uncertain economic forecasts that hovered over most of 2019, disappointing IPO results from Uber and Lyft that failed to provide fuel for our real estate market and a lack of quality inventory compared to 2018 (in 2019 larger less updated homes were sold)

• 2020 predictions are bright – Despite the mixed 2019 results and cautionary sentiment that persisted in early

2019, most 2020 market predictions are bright • The stock market rallied 10% in Q4 and 29% for all of 2019 as concerns about 2020 economic uncertainty began to fade • Goldman Sachs is now forecasting 2020 US GDP growth of 2.3%, interest rates to remain at historical lows, fading concerns of global trade wars, reduced probability of recession (only 20% chance) and above-trend job gains • A stronger 2020 economic sentiment was evident in Lamorinda in late November and December as many homes that remained on the market from the Fall sold with relatively strong results

• Lafayette continues to outpace both Moraga and Orinda - Lafayette’s average sales price is now $1.84M and average sales price per square foot is $685, down 2.6% from 2018. Moraga’s average sales price per square foot is $610, up 3.4%, and Orinda’s average sales price per square foot is $624, down 2.1%

The following pages provide further details and breaks down the numbers by home size. Note, Lafayette figures included herein only include transactions within the Lafayette School District

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Lamorinda

Lamorinda Market Update Jan '19 - Dec '19 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 41 Sales Price Average $1,040,491 High $1,450,000 Low $620,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $788 High $1,014 Low $505 Days on MLS Average 22 High 224 Low 2

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

282

209

All Homes

119

651

$1,362,301 $2,215,000 $570,000

$1,799,968 $3,225,000 $885,000

$2,475,185 $5,850,000 $1,250,000

$1,685,974 $5,850,000 $570,000

$678 $952 $313

$610 $1,064 $340

$585 $984 $275

$646 $1,064 $275

22 225 0

29 223 0

50 262 0

29 262 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jan '19 - Dec '19 vs. Jan '18 - Dec '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -32.8% Sales Price Average 2.5% High 6.2% Low -8.1% Sales Price Per SQFT Average -1.7% High -18.1% Low 1.9% Days on MLS Average 64.8% High 163.5% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

-10.8%

7.7%

-0.8%

-5.8%

1.1% -38.5% -25.0%

-0.5% -3.4% 10.5%

-13.1% -52.2% -3.8%

-1.3% -52.2% -15.6%

0.6% -42.2% -14.7%

0.7% 1.4% 7.6%

-4.0% -7.8% 1.5%

-1.3% -35.4% 1.5%

28.0% -18.5% NA

16.4% 19.3% NA

11.8% -10.9% NA

23.3% -10.9% NA

Jan '18 - Dec '18 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 61 Sales Price Average $1,015,404 High $1,365,000 Low $675,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $802 High $1,237 Low $496 Days on MLS Average 13 High 85 Low 0 Source: MLS

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

316

194

120

691

$1,347,499 $3,600,000 $760,000

$1,808,782 $3,340,000 $801,000

$2,848,438 $12,250,000 $1,300,000

$1,708,344 $12,250,000 $675,000

$673 $1,646 $367

$606 $1,049 $316

$609 $1,068 $271

$655 $1,646 $271

17 276 0

25 187 0

45 294 0

24 294 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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1 of 4

Lafayette

Lafayette Market Update Jan '19 - Dec '19 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Home Size # of Transactions 20 Sales Price Average $1,060,625 High $1,300,000 Low $818,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $831 High $972 Low $637 Days on MLS Average 18 High 91 Low 2

Total

107

72

66

265

$1,419,717 $2,215,000 $900,000

$2,003,841 $3,225,000 $1,140,000

$2,576,295 $5,850,000 $1,250,000

$1,839,375 $5,850,000 $818,000

$718 $952 $483

$675 $1,064 $376

$598 $984 $342

$685 $1,064 $342

20 124 0

19 81 0

51 262 0

27 262 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jan '19 - Dec '19 vs. Jan '18 - Dec '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -47.4% Sales Price Average 4.3% High -3.6% Low 21.2% Sales Price Per SQFT Average -0.3% High -21.4% Low 28.4% Days on MLS Average 19.6% High 7.1% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

-13.7%

14.3%

24.5%

-4.7%

-0.5% -38.5% 0.0%

8.2% 12.2% 42.3%

-17.7% -25.0% -21.6%

2.6% -25.0% 21.2%

-0.2% -42.2% 13.7%

8.4% 13.9% 18.9%

-10.4% -7.8% -19.0%

-2.6% -35.4% 8.4%

18.2% -0.8% NA

-15.1% -43.4% NA

86.8% 71.2% NA

37.1% 71.2% NA

Jan '18 - Dec '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT SQFT SQFT

Home Size # of Transactions 38 Sales Price Average $1,016,921 High $1,349,000 Low $675,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $833 High $1,237 Low $496 Days on MLS Average 15 High 85 Low 0 Source: MLS

Total

124

63

53

278

$1,426,585 $3,600,000 $900,000

$1,852,332 $2,875,000 $801,000

$3,131,476 $7,800,000 $1,595,000

$1,792,103 $7,800,000 $675,000

$719 $1,646 $424

$623 $934 $316

$667 $1,068 $423

$703 $1,646 $316

17 125 0

23 143 0

27 153 0

20 153 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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2 of 4

Moraga

Moraga Market Update Jan '19 - Dec '19 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 4 Sales Price Average $1,065,154 High $1,100,000 Low $980,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $728 High $739 Low $712 Days on MLS Average 10 High 10 Low 9

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

70

47

8

129

$1,339,534 $1,800,000 $925,000

$1,645,856 $2,225,000 $1,055,000

$2,044,116 $2,805,000 $1,360,000

$1,486,327 $2,805,000 $925,000

$651 $905 $503

$556 $738 $365

$516 $780 $375

$610 $905 $365

17 89 0

26 190 0

39 107 1

21 190 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jan '19 - Dec '19 vs. Jan '18 - Dec '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 33.3% Sales Price Average 21.3% High 22.2% Low 16.0% Sales Price Per SQFT Average 14.2% High 6.0% Low 17.6% Days on MLS Average 29.5% High -28.6% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 > 3,500 SQFT SQFT

Total

2.9%

-2.1%

-38.5%

-2.3%

5.5% -4.0% 15.6%

0.7% 1.1% -6.2%

-7.2% -19.9% -5.6%

0.0% -19.9% 15.6%

3.8% 9.0% 14.6%

0.1% 7.6% 4.1%

0.3% 9.4% -0.1%

3.4% 9.0% 4.1%

45.1% 61.8% NA

42.8% 86.3% NA

18.9% 1.9% NA

33.5% 81.0% NA

Jan '18 - Dec '18 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 3 Sales Price Average $878,333 High $900,000 Low $845,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $637 High $698 Low $606 Days on MLS Average 7 High 14 Low 0 Source: MLS

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 > 3,500 SQFT SQFT

Total

68

48

13

132

$1,270,165 $1,875,000 $800,000

$1,635,061 $2,200,000 $1,125,000

$2,201,922 $3,500,000 $1,440,000

$1,485,713 $3,500,000 $800,000

$627 $830 $439

$555 $686 $350

$514 $713 $376

$590 $830 $350

12 55 0

18 102 0

33 105 0

16 105 0

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3 of 4

Orinda

Orinda Market Update Jan '19 - Dec '19 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 17 Sales Price Average $1,011,000 High $1,450,000 Low $620,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $753 High $1,014 Low $505 Days on MLS Average 30 High 224 Low 3

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

105

90

45

257

$1,318,970 $2,000,000 $570,000

$1,717,349 $2,645,000 $885,000

$2,403,524 $4,850,000 $1,512,000

$1,628,011 $4,850,000 $570,000

$655 $917 $313

$587 $828 $340

$578 $834 $275

$624 $1,014 $275

28 225 0

39 223 0

51 212 0

36 225 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jan '19 - Dec '19 vs. Jan '18 - Dec '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -15.0% Sales Price Average -2.1% High 6.2% Low -12.2% Sales Price Per SQFT Average -2.0% High 0.6% Low -14.5% Days on MLS Average 160.7% High 729.6% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

-15.3%

8.4%

-16.7%

-8.5%

0.6% 9.3% -25.0%

-8.5% -20.8% -13.7%

-11.8% -60.4% 16.3%

-5.9% -60.4% -19.3%

0.3% 1.0% -14.7%

-5.8% -21.1% -5.4%

0.4% -8.3% 1.5%

-2.1% -3.4% 1.5%

33.9% -18.5% NA

25.9% 19.3% NA

-21.5% -27.9% NA

13.6% -23.5% NA

Jan '18 - Dec '18 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 20 Sales Price Average $1,033,082 High $1,365,000 Low $706,500 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $769 High $1,007 Low $590 Days on MLS Average 11 High 27 Low 0 Source: MLS

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

124

83

54

281

$1,310,821 $1,830,000 $760,000

$1,876,192 $3,340,000 $1,025,000

$2,726,285 $12,250,000 $1,300,000

$1,730,060 $12,250,000 $706,500

$653 $907 $367

$624 $1,049 $359

$576 $909 $271

$638 $1,049 $271

21 276 0

31 187 0

65 294 0

32 294 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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HISTORICAL BAY AREA & LAMORINDA MARKET PERFORMANCE

It is helpful to provide historical context to our real estate market to understand past cycles and how Lamorinda faired compared to the rest of the Bay Area. Each cycle always has different market influences and therefore makes pinpointing the exact timing of when cycles begin and end very difficult. Even during bubble or irrational exuberance periods markets can run well beyond what market experts believe is rational. An example is the 2008-9 Financial Crisis caused by early 2000’s lax underwriting mortgage standards that allowed housing prices to skyrocket from zero-down and negative amortization loans. Most economists in 2003-4 believed homes were overvalued but values continued to rise another three to four years until 2007-8.

Over the last thirty plus years Bay Area real estate markets were not only influenced by the health of our macro economy but also heavily influenced by Bay Area high-tech sector. Innovation creates new markets that translate into wealth creation that propels the growth of our real estate markets. The Silicon Valley influence today extends well beyond the Peninsula. In recent years the run up in Lamorinda home prices has been fueled by “new-tech” companies headquartered in San Francisco such as Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, Pinterest, Stripe, Salesforce, Twitter, Dropbox and Square where previously the lengthy commute to the Silicon Valley prohibited Lamorinda from being a viable option to most tech workers.

The following page provides a historical perspective of past cycles and how Lamorinda price appreciation compares to the rest of the Bay Area.

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Historical Bay Area Home Values 500%

450%

400%

350%

300%

Over the last 30+ years in the Bay Area expansionary periods have averaged 7 years while contractionary periods have averaged 2-3 years

+95% 9 yrs

+57%

250%

5 yrs

200%

-28% 150%

+110%

SF Earthquake 100%

2 yrs

-11% 1 yr

7 yrs

Financial Crisis

Dotcom Bubble

50%

-12%

90's Recession

4 yrs

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index. 2019 data thru Jul

0%

Historical Lamorinda Home Values 300%

250%

200%

Compared to high-end Bay Area homes prices since 1997, Lafayette outperformed the market, Orinda is just below market while Moraga underperformed the market

+95% 9 yrs

249% 233% 231% 214%

Financial Crisis -28%

150%

2 yrs

100%

+57% 5 yrs

50%

-11% 1 yr

0%

Since 1997: - Lafayette: +249% - Bay Area High-End Homes: +233% - Orinda: +231% - Moraga: +214%

Dotcom Bubble

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index / MLS

0%

Bay Area

Lafayette

Orinda

Moraga

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Erin Martin

Darrick Martin

925.951.3817 Erin@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#01922810

925.900.8218 Darrick@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#02006564

Lafayette, CA

Lafayette, CA

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