Lamorinda 2019 Q3 Market Update

LAMORINDA 2019 Q3 MARKET UPDATE Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MARTIN HOMES TEAM CHANGING HOUSES INTO HOMES MartinHomesTeam.com

LAMORINDA 2019 Q3 MARKET UPDATE Below is a summary of Multiple Listing Service (“MLS”) data for Lamorinda residential detached home sales over the last twelve months from October 2018 to September 2019 (the prior-year comparison is from October 2017 to September 2018). In summary:

• Our real estate market remains strong, however Q3 2019 results require further explanation Lamorinda average sales price is now $1.71M, up 4%, average sales price per square foot is $648, up 1%, and average days on market is 27 days, up 12%.

• The slowdown in price per sqft growth was primarily related to the composition of homes sold in Q3 vs an overall market shift – In focusing on Lafayette, 2019 Q3 sales included larger and less updated homes sold in Lafayette compared to Q3 of 2018, which results were dropped from the current twelve-month average of Q4 2018 through Q3 2019. The average home size sold in Q3 2019 was 2826 sqft compared to 2518 in Q3 2018. Generally, larger homes sell at a lower price per sqft. The average sales price per sqft was $657 in Q3 2019 compared to $710 in Q3 2018. Supporting the notion that less updated homes were sold in Q3 2019, there were only 9 homes sold above $800 per sqft in Q3 2019 compared to 17 in Q3 2018 and there were 9 homes sold below $500 per sqft in Q3 2019 compared to only 5 in Q3 2018.

• In light of the mixed Q3 2019 results, Q4 results should be closely monitored as we prepare for the 2020 Spring selling season.

• Lafayette continues to outpace both Moraga and Orinda - Lafayette’s average sales price is now $1.88M and average sales price per square foot is $694, flat from prior year. Average sales price per square foot is $605, up 4% for Moraga and $622, down 1% for Orinda.

• Bay Area home price index increased in July, further supporting the strength in the overall market. The Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index increased to 262.42 in July from 261.59 in June.

The following pages provide further details and breaks down the numbers by home size. Note, Lafayette figures included herein only include transactions within the Lafayette School District.

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Lamorinda

Lamorinda Market Update Oct '18 - Sept '19 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 44 Sales Price Average $1,030,045 High $1,350,000 Low $669,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $775 High $1,014 Low $496 Days on MLS Average 14 High 75 Low 0

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

282

211

All Homes

124

661

$1,360,710 $2,850,000 $570,000

$1,804,552 $3,225,000 $885,000

$2,564,527 $7,800,000 $1,360,000

$1,706,209 $7,800,000 $570,000

$681 $1,517 $313

$613 $1,064 $340

$589 $1,068 $275

$648 $1,517 $275

20 225 0

26 218 0

52 262 0

27 262 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Oct '18 - Sept '19 vs. Oct '17 - Sept '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -24.1% Sales Price Average 0.1% High -1.1% Low -0.9% Sales Price Per SQFT Average -5.8% High -18.1% Low -13.9% Days on MLS Average -4.7% High -11.8% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

-15.1%

4.5%

6.0%

-6.8%

2.4% -20.8% -12.3%

1.9% -3.4% 10.5%

-1.3% -36.3% 12.4%

4.1% -36.3% -12.3%

2.0% -7.9% -14.7%

3.1% 1.4% 7.6%

2.6% 13.2% 1.5%

0.7% -7.9% 1.5%

11.4% -18.5% NA

-2.8% 16.6% NA

15.6% -22.0% NA

11.6% -22.0% NA

Oct '17 - Sept '18 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 58 Sales Price Average $1,028,795 High $1,365,000 Low $675,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $823 High $1,237 Low $576 Days on MLS Average 14 High 85 Low 0 Source: MLS

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

332

202

117

709

$1,328,752 $3,600,000 $650,000

$1,770,570 $3,340,000 $801,000

$2,597,260 $12,250,000 $1,210,000

$1,639,422 $12,250,000 $650,000

$668 $1,646 $367

$594 $1,049 $316

$574 $943 $271

$644 $1,646 $271

18 276 0

27 187 0

45 336 0

25 336 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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Lafayette

Lafayette Market Update Oct '18 - Sept '19 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Home Size # of Transactions 27 Sales Price Average $1,037,778 High $1,320,000 Low $715,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $791 High $959 Low $496 Days on MLS Average 14 High 35 Low 0

Total

104

76

65

272

$1,440,283 $2,850,000 $900,000

$1,996,801 $3,225,000 $1,140,000

$2,783,044 $7,800,000 $1,370,000

$1,876,707 $7,800,000 $715,000

$733 $1,517 $430

$672 $1,064 $373

$617 $1,068 $356

$694 $1,517 $356

17 125 0

18 81 0

49 262 0

25 262 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Oct '18 - Sept '19 vs. Oct '17 - Sept '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -22.9% Sales Price Average 0.2% High -2.1% Low 5.9% Sales Price Per SQFT Average -8.2% High -22.5% Low -13.9% Days on MLS Average -16.3% High -58.8% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

-18.8%

20.6%

35.4%

-0.7%

2.6% -20.8% 10.8%

10.6% 12.2% 42.3%

2.6% 56.9% -5.5%

11.8% 56.9% 5.9%

2.3% -7.9% 2.4%

11.0% 13.9% 18.1%

0.1% 13.2% 0.3%

0.3% -7.9% 12.8%

11.2% 21.4% NA

-23.3% -43.4% NA

43.6% -22.0% NA

19.0% -22.0% NA

Oct '17 - Sept '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT SQFT SQFT

Home Size # of Transactions 35 Sales Price Average $1,036,100 High $1,349,000 Low $675,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $862 High $1,237 Low $576 Days on MLS Average 16 High 85 Low 0 Source: MLS

Total

128

63

48

274

$1,404,367 $3,600,000 $812,000

$1,805,994 $2,875,000 $801,000

$2,711,333 $4,970,000 $1,450,000

$1,678,628 $4,970,000 $675,000

$716 $1,646 $420

$606 $934 $316

$617 $943 $355

$692 $1,646 $316

16 103 0

23 143 0

34 336 0

21 336 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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2 of 4

Moraga

Moraga Market Update Oct '18 - Sept '19 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 2 Sales Price Average $1,040,000 High $1,100,000 Low $980,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $726 High $739 Low $712 Days on MLS Average 10 High 10 Low 9

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

73

47

8

130

$1,321,080 $1,800,000 $895,000

$1,633,606 $2,225,000 $1,055,000

$2,035,991 $2,805,000 $1,360,000

$1,473,741 $2,805,000 $895,000

$644 $905 $470

$556 $738 $350

$507 $780 $375

$605 $905 $350

17 89 0

23 116 0

45 107 1

21 116 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Oct '18 - Sept '19 vs. Oct '17 - Sept '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -50.0% Sales Price Average 14.0% High 8.4% Low 16.0% Sales Price Per SQFT Average 11.0% High 5.2% Low 17.6% Days on MLS Average -2.6% High -41.2% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 > 3,500 SQFT SQFT

Total

-7.6%

-13.0%

-52.9%

-15.6%

5.3% -4.0% 11.9%

0.5% 1.1% 0.5%

-2.3% -19.9% -2.5%

0.4% -19.9% 11.9%

3.8% 9.0% 8.3%

1.0% 6.2% -11.8%

1.9% 9.4% -0.1%

3.7% 9.0% -6.7%

22.9% -31.0% NA

-8.8% -7.9% NA

18.2% -32.7% NA

2.3% -27.0% NA

Oct '17 - Sept '18 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 4 Sales Price Average $912,500 High $1,015,000 Low $845,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $654 High $703 Low $606 Days on MLS Average 10 High 17 Low 0 Source: MLS

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 > 3,500 SQFT SQFT

Total

79

54

17

154

$1,254,964 $1,875,000 $800,000

$1,625,684 $2,200,000 $1,050,000

$2,083,999 $3,500,000 $1,395,000

$1,467,579 $3,500,000 $800,000

$620 $830 $434

$550 $695 $397

$498 $713 $376

$583 $830 $376

14 129 0

25 126 0

38 159 0

20 159 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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Orinda

Orinda Market Update Oct '18 - Sept '19 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 15 Sales Price Average $1,014,800 High $1,350,000 Low $669,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $754 High $1,014 Low $563 Days on MLS Average 14 High 75 Low 3

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

105

88

51

259

$1,309,447 $2,000,000 $570,000

$1,729,820 $2,875,000 $885,000

$2,368,933 $4,850,000 $1,500,000

$1,643,837 $4,850,000 $570,000

$657 $917 $313

$591 $871 $340

$565 $834 $275

$622 $1,014 $275

24 225 0

34 218 0

57 255 3

33 255 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Oct '18 - Sept '19 vs. Oct '17 - Sept '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -21.1% Sales Price Average -2.4% High -1.1% Low -5.3% Sales Price Per SQFT Average -4.2% High 0.6% Low -4.7% Days on MLS Average 21.5% High 177.8% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

-16.0%

3.5%

-1.9%

-7.8%

0.9% 9.3% -12.3%

-5.8% -13.9% -13.7%

-10.9% -60.4% 24.0%

-3.0% -60.4% -12.3%

1.2% 1.0% -14.7%

-3.6% -17.0% -5.4%

1.1% -8.3% 1.5%

-1.4% -3.4% 1.5%

7.4% -18.5% NA

14.3% 16.6% NA

-0.6% -13.3% NA

9.9% -13.3% NA

Oct '17 - Sept '18 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 19 Sales Price Average $1,039,823 High $1,365,000 Low $706,500 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $788 High $1,007 Low $590 Days on MLS Average 12 High 27 Low 0 Source: MLS

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

125

85

52

281

$1,297,958 $1,830,000 $650,000

$1,836,360 $3,340,000 $1,025,000

$2,659,758 $12,250,000 $1,210,000

$1,695,371 $12,250,000 $650,000

$649 $907 $367

$613 $1,049 $359

$559 $909 $271

$631 $1,049 $271

22 276 0

30 187 0

58 294 0

30 294 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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HISTORICAL BAY AREA & LAMORINDA MARKET PERFORMANCE

It is helpful to provide historical context to our real estate market to understand past cycles and how Lamorinda faired compared to the rest of the Bay Area. Each cycle always has different market influences and therefore makes pinpointing the exact timing of when cycles begin and end very difficult. Even during bubble or irrational exuberance periods markets can run well beyond what market experts believe is rational. An example is the 2008-9 Financial Crisis caused by early 2000’s lax underwriting mortgage standards that allowed housing prices to skyrocket from zero-down and negative amortization loans. Most economists in 2003-4 believed homes were overvalued but values continued to rise another three to four years until 2007-8.

Over the last thirty plus years Bay Area real estate markets were not only influenced by the health of our macro economy but also heavily influenced by Bay Area high-tech sector. Innovation creates new markets that translate into wealth creation that propels the growth of our real estate markets. The Silicon Valley influence today extends well beyond the Peninsula. In recent years the run up in Lamorinda home prices has been fueled by “new-tech” companies headquartered in San Francisco such as Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, Pinterest, Stripe, Salesforce, Twitter, Dropbox and Square where previously the lengthy commute to the Silicon Valley prohibited Lamorinda from being a viable option to most tech workers.

The following page provides a historical perspective of past cycles and how Lamorinda price appreciation compares to the rest of the Bay Area.

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Historical Bay Area Home Values 500%

450%

400%

350%

300%

Over the last 30+ years in the Bay Area expansionary periods have averaged 7 years while contractionary periods have averaged 2-3 years

+95% 9 yrs

+57%

250%

5 yrs

200%

-28% 150%

+110%

SF Earthquake 100%

2 yrs

-11% 1 yr

7 yrs

Financial Crisis

Dotcom Bubble

50%

-12%

90's Recession

4 yrs

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index. 2019 data thru Jul

0%

Historical Lamorinda Home Values 300%

250%

200%

Compared to high-end Bay Area homes prices since 1997, Lafayette outperformed the market, Orinda is just below market while Moraga underperformed the market

+95% 9 yrs

249% 233% 231% 214%

Financial Crisis -28%

150%

2 yrs

100%

+57% 5 yrs

50%

-11% 1 yr

0%

Since 1997: - Lafayette: +249% - Bay Area High-End Homes: +233% - Orinda: +231% - Moraga: +214%

Dotcom Bubble

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index / MLS

0%

Bay Area

Lafayette

Orinda

Moraga

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Erin Martin

Darrick Martin

925.951.3817 Erin@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#01922810

925.900.8218 Darrick@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#02006564

Lafayette, CA

Lafayette, CA

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