Lamorinda 2019 Q1 Market Update

LAMORINDA 2019 Q1 MARKET UPDATE Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MARTIN HOMES TEAM CHANGING HOUSES INTO HOMES MartinHomesTeam.com

LAMORINDA 2019 Q1 MARKET UPDATE Below is a summary of Multiple Listing Service (“MLS”) data for Lamorinda residential detached home sales over the last twelve months from April 2018 to March 2019 (the prioryear comparison is from April 2017 to March 2018). In summary: • Our overall real estate market remains strong but the numbers don’t tell the full story The early 2019 market delivered strong results for most of Lamorinda. Lamorinda average sales price is now $1.71M, up 9%, average sales price per square foot is $649, up 5%, and average days on market is consistent with last year at 25 days.

• Lafayette continues to outpace both Moraga and Orinda - Lafayette’s average sales price is now $1.82M and average sales price per square foot is $686, up 6%. Average sales price per square foot is $588, up 3% for Moraga and $637, up 5% for Orinda.

• Certain homes are showing signs of softening – While recently remodeled, commute friendly homes with functional yards continue to push the market to new heights, beginning last Summer homes that needed updating or homes in less desirable locations took longer to sell and experienced price reductions. Volatility of mortgage rates and the stock market combined with the new Tax Plan have led homebuyers to be cautious with homes that do not check all their boxes.

• Bay Area Tech IPOs Could Boost The Market – Recent and potential upcoming IPOs from the likes of Lyft, Uber, Pinterest, Stripe and Airbnb that are within commute distance of Lamorinda could boost our real estate market in the second half of the year if stock valuations remain strong The following pages provide further details and breaks down the numbers by home size.

MartinHomesTeam.com

Lamorinda

Lamorinda Market Update Apr '18 - Mar '19 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT < 1,501 SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

All Homes

308

209

129

701

$1,338,001 $3,600,000 $570,000

$1,809,508 $3,340,000 $1,025,000

$2,732,192 $12,250,000 $1,300,000

$1,711,047 $12,250,000 $570,000

$670 $1,646 $334

$606 $1,064 $350

$603 $1,068 $271

$649 $1,646 $271

19 225 0

27 158 0

43 294 0

25 294 0

Home Size # of Transactions 55 Sales Price Average $1,030,902 High $1,365,000 Low $706,500 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $799 High $1,237 Low $496 Days on MLS Average 13 High 85 Low 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Apr '18 - Mar '19 vs. Apr '17 - Mar '18) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT Total < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -8.3% -9.4% -3.2% -5.8% -6.9% Sales Price Average 2.9% 5.1% 6.7% 14.0% 8.5% High 5.4% 63.3% 21.2% 88.5% 88.5% Low 23.7% -12.3% 28.0% 7.4% -0.2% Sales Price Per SQFT Average 0.8% 5.2% 4.4% 9.0% 5.0% High 21.0% 46.4% 14.7% -0.4% 46.4% Low 1.4% -9.1% 11.0% -8.1% -8.1% Days on MLS Average -4.0% -2.2% -0.6% 8.2% 2.0% High 32.8% -18.5% -32.5% -12.5% -12.5% Low NA NA NA NA NA

< 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 60 Sales Price Average $1,001,433 High $1,295,000 Low $571,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $792 High $1,022 Low $489 Days on MLS Average 14 High 64 Low 0 Source: MLS

Apr '17 - Mar '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

340

216

137

753

$1,272,585 $2,205,000 $650,000

$1,695,605 $2,755,000 $801,000

$2,397,551 $6,500,000 $1,210,000

$1,576,999 $6,500,000 $571,000

$637 $1,125 $367

$581 $928 $316

$553 $1,071 $295

$618 $1,125 $295

19 276 0

27 234 0

40 336 0

25 336 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MartinHomesTeam.com

1 of 4

Lafayette

Lafayette Market Update Apr '18 - Mar '19 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT

Home Size # of Transactions 31 Sales Price Average $1,037,097 High $1,349,000 Low $715,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $833 High $1,237 Low $496 Days on MLS Average 15 High 85 Low 0

Total

125

73

63

292

$1,397,199 $3,600,000 $825,000

$1,881,492 $3,225,000 $1,025,000

$2,967,242 $7,800,000 $1,500,000

$1,818,784 $7,800,000 $715,000

$705 $1,646 $400

$626 $1,064 $369

$644 $1,068 $423

$686 $1,646 $369

18 125 0

25 143 0

30 203 0

22 203 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Apr '18 - Mar '19 vs. Apr '17 - Mar '18) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT Total < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -22.5% -10.1% -12.0% -6.0% -11.2% Sales Price Average 2.3% 8.4% 9.0% 19.8% 13.1% High 4.2% 63.6% 17.1% 20.0% 20.0% Low 5.9% 1.6% 28.0% 9.1% 5.9% Sales Price Per SQFT Average 0.8% 5.8% 5.6% 13.2% 5.9% High 21.0% 46.4% 14.7% -0.4% 46.4% Low -9.3% -4.7% 16.8% 43.5% 25.1% Days on MLS Average -1.2% 5.4% 8.7% -22.6% -3.1% High 32.8% 33.0% -38.9% -39.6% -39.6% Low NA NA NA NA NA

< 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 40 Sales Price Average $1,014,150 High $1,295,000 Low $675,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $826 High $1,022 Low $547 Days on MLS Average 15 High 64 Low 0 Source: MLS

Apr '17 - Mar '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

139

83

67

329

$1,288,778 $2,200,000 $812,000

$1,725,414 $2,755,000 $801,000

$2,476,756 $6,500,000 $1,375,000

$1,607,472 $6,500,000 $675,000

$666 $1,125 $420

$592 $928 $316

$569 $1,071 $295

$647 $1,125 $295

17 94 0

23 234 0

39 336 0

23 336 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MartinHomesTeam.com

2 of 4

Moraga

Moraga Market Update Apr '18 - Mar '19 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT

Home Size # of Transactions 3 Sales Price Average $908,333 High $980,000 Low $845,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $672 High $712 Low $606 Days on MLS Average 8 High 14 Low 0

Total

60

45

12

120

$1,254,353 $1,739,000 $800,000

$1,608,862 $2,225,000 $1,125,000

$2,172,582 $3,500,000 $1,440,000

$1,470,466 $3,500,000 $800,000

$628 $806 $439

$546 $686 $350

$524 $713 $376

$588 $806 $350

13 89 0

18 95 0

35 105 0

17 105 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Apr '18 - Mar '19 vs. Apr '17 - Mar '18) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT Total < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -40.0% -34.8% -21.1% 0.0% -27.7% Sales Price Average -9.4% 2.0% -1.6% 13.1% 4.2% High -12.9% -7.3% -16.0% 37.0% 32.1% Low -5.1% 10.3% 7.1% 4.7% 10.3% Sales Price Per SQFT Average -4.9% 5.9% -1.6% 14.3% 2.5% High -9.7% -2.9% -10.7% 34.3% -2.9% Low -0.4% 15.6% 5.4% 0.0% 5.4% Days on MLS Average -33.3% -30.7% -46.4% -1.4% -31.8% High -17.6% -63.7% -39.9% -34.0% -57.1% Low NA NA NA NA NA

< 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 5 Sales Price Average $1,003,000 High $1,125,000 Low $890,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $706 High $789 Low $608 Days on MLS Average 12 High 17 Low 8 Source: MLS

Apr '17 - Mar '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

92

57

12

166

$1,229,207 $1,875,000 $725,000

$1,634,400 $2,650,000 $1,050,000

$1,920,167 $2,554,000 $1,375,000

$1,411,475 $2,650,000 $725,000

$593 $830 $380

$554 $768 $333

$458 $531 $376

$573 $830 $333

19 245 0

33 158 0

36 159 0

25 245 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MartinHomesTeam.com

3 of 4

Orinda

< 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 21 Sales Price Average $1,039,268 High $1,365,000 Low $706,500 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $766 High $1,007 Low $563 Days on MLS Average 11 High 27 Low 5

Orinda Market Update Apr '18 - Mar '19 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

123

91

54

289

$1,318,645 $1,845,000 $570,000

$1,850,984 $3,340,000 $1,025,000

$2,582,326 $12,250,000 $1,300,000

$1,702,087 $12,250,000 $570,000

$655 $917 $334

$621 $1,049 $359

$572 $909 $271

$637 $1,049 $271

22 225 0

32 158 0

61 294 0

32 294 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Apr '18 - Mar '19 vs. Apr '17 - Mar '18) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT Total < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 50.0% 12.8% 19.7% -6.9% 12.5% Sales Price Average 4.4% 2.3% 8.3% 7.4% 3.2% High 9.2% -16.3% 30.0% 206.3% 206.3% Low -5.8% -12.3% 0.0% 7.4% -12.3% Sales Price Per SQFT Average 2.8% 3.0% 5.5% 3.3% 4.5% High 7.5% 1.9% 18.2% 10.3% 12.0% Low -5.0% -9.1% -1.6% -11.1% -11.1% Days on MLS Average 6.0% 1.2% 23.7% 43.5% 17.0% High 8.0% -18.5% -15.5% 13.1% 6.5% Low NA NA NA NA NA

< 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 14 Sales Price Average $995,286 High $1,250,000 Low $750,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $745 High $937 Low $592 Days on MLS Average 11 High 25 Low 0 Source: MLS

Apr '17 - Mar '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

109

76

58

257

$1,288,547 $2,205,000 $650,000

$1,708,952 $2,570,000 $1,025,000

$2,404,826 $4,000,000 $1,210,000

$1,648,817 $4,000,000 $650,000

$636 $900 $367

$589 $888 $365

$554 $824 $305

$610 $937 $305

22 276 0

26 187 0

42 260 0

27 276 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MartinHomesTeam.com

4 of 4

HISTORICAL BAY AREA & LAMORINDA MARKET It is helpful to provide historical context to our real estate market to understand past PERFORMANCE cycles and how Lamorinda faired compared to the rest of the Bay Area. Each cycle always has different market influences and therefore makes pinpointing the exact timing of when cycles begin and end very difficult. Even during bubble or irrational exuberance periods markets can run well beyond what market experts believe is rational. An example is the 2008-9 Financial Crisis caused by early 2000’s lax underwriting mortgage standards that allowed housing prices to skyrocket from zero-down and negative amortization loans.

Most economists in 2003-4 believed homes were overvalued but values continued to rise another three to four years until 2007-8.

Over the last thirty plus years Bay Area real estate markets were not only influenced by the health of our macro economy but also heavily influenced by Bay Area high-tech sector. Innovation creates new markets that translate into wealth creation that propels the growth of our real estate markets. The Silicon Valley influence today extends well beyond the Peninsula. In recent years the run up in Lamorinda home prices has been fueled by “new-tech” companies headquartered in San Francisco such as Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, Pinterest, Stripe, Salesforce, Twitter, Dropbox and Square where previously the lengthy commute to the Silicon Valley prohibited Lamorinda from being a viable option to most tech workers.

The following page provides a historical perspective of past cycles and how Lamorinda price appreciation compares to the rest of the Bay Area.

MartinHomesTeam.com

Historical Bay Area Home Values 500%

450%

400%

350%

300%

Over the last 30+ years in the Bay Area expansionary periods have averaged 7 years while contractionary periods have averaged 2-3 years

+95% 9 yrs

+57%

250%

5 yrs

200%

-28% 2 yrs

150%

+110%

SF Earthquake 100% 50%

-11% 1 yr

7 yrs

-12%

Dotcom Bubble

90's Recession

4 yrs

Financial Crisis

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index

0%

Historical Lamorinda Home Values 300%

249%

250%

200%

+95%

Compared to high-end Bay Area homes prices since 1997, Lafayette outperformed the market, Orinda is just below market while Moraga underperformed the market

9 yrs

Financial Crisis -28%

150%

2 yrs

100%

+57% 5 yrs

50%

-11% 1 yr

0%

Dotcom Bubble Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index / MLS. 2018 data thru Oct

0%

Bay Area

Lafayette

Orinda

Moraga

MartinHomesTeam.com

238% 231% 214%

Erin Martin

Darrick Martin

925.951.3817 Erin@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#01922810

925.900.8218 Darrick@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#02006564

Lafayette, CA

Lafayette, CA

MartinHomesTeam.com