Lamorinda Year-End 2018 Market Update by Darrick Martin

LAMORINDA YEAR-END 2018 MARKET UPDATE Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MARTIN HOMES TEAM CHANGING HOUSES INTO HOMES MartinHomesTeam.com

LAMORINDA YEAR-END 2018 MARKET UPDATE Below is a summary of Multiple Listing Service (“MLS”) data for Lamorinda residential detached home sales over the last twelve months from January 2018 to December 2018 (the prior-year comparison is from January 2017 to December 2017). In summary: •

• •

Our overall real estate market remains strong but the numbers don’t tell the full story The Fall market delivered strong results for most of Lamorinda. Lamorinda average sales price is now $1.69M, up 8%, average sales price per square foot is $649, up 6%, and average days on market is down 4% to only 24 days. Lafayette continues to outpace both Moraga and Orinda - Lafayette’s average sales price is now $1.74M and average sales price per square foot is $686, up 7%. Average sales price per square foot is $589, up 4% for Moraga and $639, up 5% for Orinda. Certain homes are showing signs of softening – While recently remodeled, commute friendly homes with functional yards continue to push the market to new heights, in late Spring and through the Fall homes that needed updating or homes in less desirable locations took longer to sell and experienced price reductions. With a strong economy and a shortage of quality contractors, homebuyers are still willing to pay a premium for homes that are move-in ready. Rising interest rates, the new Tax Plan and stock market volatility has led homebuyers to be cautious with homes that do not check all their boxes. We expect this trend to continue in 2019 as home preparation, professional staging and a personalized marketing plan are critical for those looking to sell their home.

The following pages provide further details and breaks down the numbers by home size.

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Lamorinda

Lamorinda Market Update Jan '18 - Dec '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 63 Sales Price Average $1,007,312 High $1,365,000 Low $571,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $795 High $1,237 Low $489 Days on MLS Average 13 High 85 Low 0

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

All Homes

329

197

124

713

$1,333,587 $3,600,000 $760,000

$1,796,161 $3,340,000 $801,000

$2,814,376 $12,250,000 $1,300,000

$1,690,094 $12,250,000 $571,000

$667 $1,646 $367

$602 $1,049 $316

$605 $1,068 $271

$649 $1,646 $271

17 276 0

26 187 0

44 294 0

24 294 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jan '18 - Dec '18 vs. Jan '17 - Dec '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions Sales Price Average High Low Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low Days on MLS Average High Low

Home Size

16.7%

0.6%

-4.8%

-8.1%

-1.4%

-0.7% 5.4% -21.2%

5.4% 63.3% 16.9%

6.0% 21.2% -5.8%

20.9% 88.5% 8.3%

7.8% 88.5% -12.2%

0.3% 21.0% -10.6%

5.7% 46.4% 0.4%

3.4% 13.1% -0.8%

11.1% -0.4% -8.1%

6.0% 46.4% -8.1%

3.7% 32.8% NA

-14.2% 12.7% NA

1.8% -20.1% NA

8.0% -12.5% NA

-3.9% -12.5% NA

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 54 Sales Price Average $1,014,881 High $1,295,000 Low $725,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $793 High $1,022 Low $547 Days on MLS Average 13 High 64 Low 0 Source: MLS

Total

Jan '17 - Dec '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

327

207

135

723

$1,264,699 $2,205,000 $650,000

$1,695,261 $2,755,000 $850,000

$2,327,813 $6,500,000 $1,200,000

$1,567,820 $6,500,000 $650,000

$631 $1,125 $366

$582 $928 $318

$545 $1,071 $295

$613 $1,125 $295

20 245 0

25 234 0

41 336 0

25 336 0

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1 of 4

Lafayette

Home Size

Lafayette Market Update Jan '18 - Dec '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

# of Transactions 39 Sales Price Average $1,015,205 High $1,349,000 Low $675,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $828 High $1,237 Low $496 Days on MLS Average 15 High 85 Low 0

Total

138

301

$1,385,287 $3,600,000 $825,000

$1,808,484 $2,875,000 $801,000

$3,052,647 $7,800,000 $1,500,000

$1,743,148 $7,800,000 $675,000

$698 $1,646 $400

$607 $934 $316

$654 $1,068 $423

$686 $1,646 $316

17 125 0

24 143 0

28 153 0

20 153 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jan '18 - Dec '18 vs. Jan '17 - Dec '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT Total Home Size # of Transactions Sales Price Average High Low Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low Days on MLS Average High Low

Home Size

11.4%

7.0%

-18.1%

-15.2%

-3.8%

-0.4% 4.2% -8.8%

8.2% 63.6% 1.6%

3.2% 4.4% -5.8%

24.0% 20.0% 9.1%

7.3% 20.0% -8.8%

1.8% 21.0% -9.3%

5.7% 46.4% 9.5%

1.3% 0.7% -0.8%

16.3% -0.4% 43.5%

7.1% 46.4% 7.2%

6.9% 32.8% NA

-7.6% 7.8% NA

6.5% -38.9% NA

-29.8% -54.5% NA

-13.3% -54.5% NA

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 35 Sales Price Average $1,019,371 High $1,295,000 Low $740,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $814 High $1,022 Low $547 Days on MLS Average 14 High 64 Low 0 Source: MLS

Jan '17 - Dec '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

129

313

$1,279,747 $2,200,000 $812,000

$1,752,643 $2,755,000 $850,000

$2,461,477 $6,500,000 $1,375,000

$1,625,215 $6,500,000 $740,000

$660 $1,125 $366

$599 $928 $318

$563 $1,071 $295

$641 $1,125 $295

18 116 0

23 234 0

40 336 0

24 336 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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2 of 4

Moraga

Home Size

Moraga Market Update Jan '18 - Dec '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

# of Transactions 4 Sales Price Average $801,500 High $900,000 Low $571,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $600 High $698 Low $489 Days on MLS Average 8 High 14 Low 0

Total

132

$1,269,234 $1,875,000 $800,000

$1,635,061 $2,200,000 $1,125,000

$2,201,922 $3,500,000 $1,440,000

$1,479,944 $3,500,000 $571,000

$627 $830 $439

$555 $686 $350

$514 $713 $376

$589 $830 $350

11 55 0

18 102 0

33 105 0

16 105 0

Home Size

-20.0%

-28.0%

-9.4%

-18.8%

-21.0%

-22.0% -20.0% -39.9%

4.4% 17.6% 10.3%

3.4% -17.0% 7.1%

18.3% 27.3% 20.0%

6.6% 27.3% -21.2%

-17.4% -11.6% -30.4%

6.5% 7.3% 15.6%

2.7% -10.7% 5.4%

13.2% 28.7% 12.7%

4.3% 5.3% 5.4%

-35.4% -17.6% NA

-47.4% -77.6% NA

-47.3% -35.4% NA

-38.3% -49.0% NA

-44.3% -57.1% NA

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 5 Sales Price Average $1,027,000 High $1,125,000 Low $950,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $726 High $789 Low $703 Days on MLS Average 12 High 17 Low 8 Source: MLS

Jan '17 - Dec '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

167

$1,215,346 $1,595,000 $725,000

$1,581,908 $2,650,000 $1,050,000

$1,860,813 $2,750,000 $1,200,000

$1,387,882 $2,750,000 $725,000

$589 $774 $380

$540 $768 $333

$454 $554 $333

$565 $789 $333

21 245 0

35 158 0

53 206 0

28 245 0

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Orinda

Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 20 Sales Price Average $1,033,082 High $1,365,000 Low $706,500 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $769 High $1,007 Low $590 Days on MLS Average 11 High 27 Low 0

Orinda Market Update Jan '18 - Dec '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

124

280

$1,310,821 $1,830,000 $760,000

$1,881,283 $3,340,000 $1,025,000

$2,716,535 $12,250,000 $1,300,000

$1,732,131 $12,250,000 $706,500

$653 $907 $367

$626 $1,049 $359

$577 $909 $271

$639 $1,049 $271

21 276 0

31 187 0

64 294 0

32 294 0

Home Size

42.9%

18.1%

14.1%

3.8%

15.2%

3.4% 9.2% -2.6%

1.6% -17.0% 16.9%

9.8% 38.6% 0.0%

18.0% 214.1% 7.4%

7.1% 214.1% 8.7%

0.6% 7.5% -0.3%

3.5% 0.8% -8.5%

5.4% 18.2% -9.5%

4.8% 10.3% -11.1%

4.6% 12.0% -11.1%

10.3% 8.0% NA

-1.5% 81.6% NA

51.0% 68.5% NA

62.8% 79.3% NA

29.9% 79.3% NA

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 14 Sales Price Average $999,328 High $1,250,000 Low $725,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $764 High $937 Low $592 Days on MLS Average 10 High 25 Low 0 Source: MLS

Total

Jan '17 - Dec '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

105

243

$1,289,924 $2,205,000 $650,000

$1,712,796 $2,410,000 $1,025,000

$2,302,344 $3,900,000 $1,210,000

$1,617,553 $3,900,000 $650,000

$631 $900 $401

$594 $888 $396

$550 $824 $305

$610 $937 $305

21 152 0

20 111 0

39 164 0

24 164 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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HISTORICAL BAY AREA & LAMORINDA MARKET It is helpful to provide historical context to our real estate market to understand past PERFORMANCE cycles and how Lamorinda faired compared to the rest of the Bay Area. Each cycle always has different market influences and therefore makes pinpointing the exact timing of when cycles begin and end very difficult. Even during bubble or irrational exuberance periods markets can run well beyond what market experts believe is rational. An example is the 2008-9 Financial Crisis caused by early 2000’s lax underwriting mortgage standards that allowed housing prices to skyrocket from zero-down and negative amortization loans. Most economists in 2003-4 believed homes were overvalued but values continued to rise another three to four years until 2007-8. Over the last thirty plus years Bay Area real estate markets were not only influenced by the health of our macro economy but also heavily influenced by Bay Area high-tech sector. Innovation creates new markets that translate into wealth creation that propels the growth of our real estate markets. The Silicon Valley influence today extends well beyond the Peninsula. In recent years the run up in Lamorinda home prices has been fueled by “new-tech” companies headquartered in San Francisco such as Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, Pinterest, Salesforce, Twitter, Dropbox and Square where previously the lengthy commute to the Silicon Valley prohibited Lamorinda from being a viable option to most tech workers. The following page provides a historical perspective of past cycles and how Lamorinda price appreciation compares to the rest of the Bay Area.

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Historical Bay Area Home Values 500%

450%

400%

350%

300%

Over the last 30+ years in the Bay Area expansionary periods have averaged 7 years while contractionary periods have averaged 2-3 years

+95% 9 yrs

+57%

250%

5 yrs

200%

-28%

100%

2 yrs

-11%

150%

+110%

SF Earthquake

50%

1 yr

7 yrs

-12%

Dotcom Bubble

90's Recession

4 yrs

Financial Crisis

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index. 2018 data thru Oct

Historical Lamorinda Home Values 300%

249%

250%

200%

+95%

Compared to high-end Bay Area homes prices since 1997, Lafayette outperformed the market, Orinda is just below market while Moraga underperformed the market

9 yrs

Financial Crisis -28%

150%

2 yrs

100%

+57% 5 yrs

50%

-11% 1 yr

Dotcom Bubble Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index / MLS. 2018 data thru Oct

Bay Area

Lafayette

Orinda

Moraga

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238% 231% 214%

Erin Martin

Darrick Martin

925.951.3817 Erin@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#01922810

925.900.8218 Darrick@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#02006564

Lafayette, CA

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