Lamorinda Q3 2018 Market Update

LAMORINDA Q3 2018 MARKET UPDATE Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MARTIN HOMES TEAM CHANGING HOUSES TO HOMES MartinHomesTeam.com

LAMORINDA Q3 2018 MARKET UPDATE Below is a summary of Multiple Listing Service (“MLS”) data for Lamorinda residential detached home sales over the last twelve months from October 2017 to September 2018 (the prior-year comparison is from October 2016 to September 2017). In summary: •

•

• •

Our real estate market remains strong - The Summer market delivered strong results for most of Lamorinda. Lamorinda average sales price is now $1.62M, up 4%, average sales price per square foot is $638, up 5%, and average days on market is down 3% to only 25 days Lafayette continues to outpace both Moraga and Orinda - Lafayette’s average sales price is now $1.64M and average sales price per square foot is $672, up 6%.

Average sales price per square foot is $582, up 4% for Moraga and $631, up 4% for Orinda Smaller size homes experienced the largest gains - Average sales price per square foot is up 4% for homes < 1,500 sqft and 8% for homes between 1,501–2,500 sqft Larger, higher priced homes are showing signs of softening - Average sales price per square foot is up only 1% for homes > 3,500 sqft. This trend is more concentrated on homes priced $2.5M and above. Rising mortgage rates and the impact of the New Tax Plan, where real estate taxes for most Lamorinda homeowners are no longer deductible, are increasing the switching costs for move-up buyers that previously locked-in a historical low mortgage rate and have a ~ $1M tax basis on their existing home

The following pages provide further details and breaks down the numbers by home size.

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Lamorinda

Lamorinda, CA Detached Residential Transactions Oct '17 - Sept '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT

Home Size

# of Transactions 56 Sales Price Average $1,030,806 High $1,365,000 Low $571,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $825 High $1,237 Low $489 Days on MLS Average 15 High 85 Low 0

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

334

207

120

717

$1,313,797 $3,600,000 $650,000

$1,758,576 $3,340,000 $801,000

$2,534,673 $12,250,000 $1,210,000

$1,624,434 $12,250,000 $571,000

$662 $1,646 $367

$590 $1,049 $316

$563 $943 $271

$638 $1,646 $271

18 276 0

27 187 0

44 336 0

25 336 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Oct '17 - Sept '18 vs. Oct '16 - Sept '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions Sales Price Average High Low Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low Days on MLS Average High Low

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

5.7%

6.4%

5.1%

-3.2%

4.2%

2.4% 5.4% -21.2%

5.5% 63.3% -10.3%

3.5% 23.7% -5.8%

6.1% 88.5% 0.9%

3.9% 88.5% -21.2%

4.4% 21.0% -10.6%

7.5% 55.9% 8.0%

1.2% 21.7% -0.8%

1.0% -12.0% -7.1%

4.6% 53.6% -7.1%

31.1% 54.5% NA

-9.8% 12.7% NA

-7.8% -20.1% NA

11.3% 33.3% NA

-2.9% 33.3% NA

Oct '16 - Sept '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 53 Sales Price Average $1,006,294 High $1,295,000 Low $725,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $791 High $1,022 Low $547 Days on MLS Average 12 High 55 Low 0 Source: MLS

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

314

197

124

688

$1,245,439 $2,205,000 $725,000

$1,699,579 $2,700,000 $850,000

$2,388,560 $6,500,000 $1,199,000

$1,563,081 $6,500,000 $725,000

$616 $1,056 $340

$583 $862 $318

$557 $1,071 $292

$609 $1,071 $292

20 245 0

29 234 0

40 252 0

25 252 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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1 of 4

Lafayette

Lafayette, CA Detached Residential Transactions Oct '17 - Sept '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 34 Sales Price Average $1,050,368 High $1,349,000 Low $675,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $869 High $1,237 Low $576 Days on MLS Average 18 High 85 Low 0

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

139

69

53

295

$1,363,568 $3,600,000 $812,000

$1,767,864 $2,875,000 $801,000

$2,575,148 $4,970,000 $1,450,000

$1,639,708 $4,970,000 $675,000

$695 $1,646 $400

$592 $934 $316

$587 $943 $341

$672 $1,646 $316

17 103 0

24 143 0

32 336 0

21 336 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Oct '17 - Sept '18 vs. Oct '16 - Sept '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions Sales Price Average High Low Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low Days on MLS Average High Low

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

3.0%

10.3%

-13.8%

-10.2%

-1.0%

3.7% 4.2% -8.8%

10.6% 89.0% 5.1%

-0.2% 6.5% -5.8%

2.3% -23.5% 5.5%

2.0% -23.5% -8.8%

6.3% 21.0% 5.4%

10.1% 55.9% 17.7%

-1.6% 8.3% -0.8%

2.5% -12.0% 15.6%

6.2% 53.6% 7.2%

42.5% 54.5% NA

-11.5% -11.2% NA

-18.2% -38.9% NA

-11.3% 33.3% NA

-12.4% 33.3% NA

Oct '16 - Sept '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 33 Sales Price Average $1,013,258 High $1,295,000 Low $740,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $818 High $1,022 Low $547 Days on MLS Average 12 High 55 Low 0 Source: MLS

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

126

80

59

298

$1,232,842 $1,905,000 $772,650

$1,771,795 $2,700,000 $850,000

$2,518,061 $6,500,000 $1,375,000

$1,607,667 $6,500,000 $740,000

$631 $1,056 $340

$602 $862 $318

$573 $1,071 $295

$633 $1,071 $295

19 116 0

29 234 0

36 252 0

24 252 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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2 of 4

Moraga

Moraga, CA Detached Residential Transactions Oct '17 - Sept '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 4 Sales Price Average $844,000 High $1,015,000 Low $571,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $624 High $703 Low $489 Days on MLS Average 12 High 17 Low 8

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

75

55

16

150

$1,254,189 $1,875,000 $800,000

$1,629,308 $2,200,000 $1,050,000

$2,100,187 $3,500,000 $1,395,000

$1,471,034 $3,500,000 $571,000

$621 $830 $434

$550 $695 $397

$496 $713 $376

$582 $830 $376

14 129 0

25 126 0

39 159 0

21 159 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Oct '17 - Sept '18 vs. Oct '16 - Sept '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions Sales Price Average High Low Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low Days on MLS Average High Low

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

0.0%

-9.6%

25.0%

23.1%

4.2%

-18.1% -9.8% -39.9%

4.2% 11.6% 10.3%

4.0% -17.0% -4.5%

15.6% 27.3% 16.3%

7.7% 27.3% -21.2%

-14.7% -10.9% -30.4%

6.4% 7.3% 14.3%

2.0% -9.5% 19.5%

13.9% 28.7% 28.8%

3.7% 5.3% 28.8%

11.6% 13.3% NA

-27.8% -47.3% NA

-29.0% -20.3% NA

-26.1% -22.8% NA

-23.8% -35.1% NA

Oct '16 - Sept '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 4 Sales Price Average $1,030,000 High $1,125,000 Low $950,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $732 High $789 Low $703 Days on MLS Average 11 High 15 Low 8 Source: MLS

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

83

44

13

144

$1,203,943 $1,680,000 $725,000

$1,566,867 $2,650,000 $1,100,000

$1,816,462 $2,750,000 $1,199,000

$1,365,302 $2,750,000 $725,000

$584 $774 $380

$539 $768 $333

$436 $554 $292

$561 $789 $292

20 245 0

35 158 0

53 206 0

27 245 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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3 of 4

Orinda

Orinda, CA Detached Residential Transactions Oct '17 - Sept '18 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT

Home Size

# of Transactions 18 Sales Price Average $1,035,368 High $1,365,000 Low $706,500 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $787 High $1,007 Low $590 Days on MLS Average 12 High 27 Low 0

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

120

83

51

272

$1,293,402 $1,830,000 $650,000

$1,836,513 $3,340,000 $1,025,000

$2,628,920 $12,250,000 $1,210,000

$1,692,465 $12,250,000 $650,000

$651 $907 $367

$615 $1,049 $359

$558 $909 $271

$631 $1,049 $271

21 276 0

30 187 0

59 294 0

30 294 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Oct '17 - Sept '18 vs. Oct '16 - Sept '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions Sales Price Average High Low Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low Days on MLS Average High Low

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

12.5%

14.3%

13.7%

-1.9%

10.6%

5.0% 12.8% -2.6%

0.0% -17.0% -13.3%

8.0% 41.0% 0.0%

10.2% 214.1% -3.2%

4.2% 214.1% -10.3%

5.1% 14.2% -0.3%

4.4% 0.8% -11.2%

4.5% 27.4% -9.5%

-1.9% 10.3% -21.1%

3.6% 16.6% -21.1%

12.4% 8.0% NA

2.8% 81.6% NA

20.4% 62.6% NA

43.9% 79.3% NA

18.8% 79.3% NA

Oct '16 - Sept '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 Home Size

< 1,501 SQFT

# of Transactions 16 Sales Price Average $986,006 High $1,210,000 Low $725,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $749 High $882 Low $592 Days on MLS Average 10 High 25 Low 0 Source: MLS

SQFT

SQFT

> 3,500 SQFT

Total

105

73

52

246

$1,293,356 $2,205,000 $750,000

$1,700,431 $2,368,700 $1,025,000

$2,384,650 $3,900,000 $1,250,000

$1,624,844 $3,900,000 $725,000

$623 $900 $413

$588 $824 $396

$569 $824 $343

$610 $900 $343

21 152 0

25 115 0

41 164 0

26 164 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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HISTORICAL BAY AREA & LAMORINDA MARKET It is helpful to provide historical context to our real estate market to understand past PERFORMANCE cycles and how Lamorinda faired compared to the rest of the Bay Area. Each cycle always has different market influences and therefore makes pinpointing the exact timing of when cycles begin and end very difficult. Even during bubble or irrational exuberance periods markets can run well beyond what market experts believe is rational. An example is the 2008-9 Financial Crisis caused by early 2000’s lax underwriting mortgage standards that allowed housing prices to skyrocket from zerodown and negative amortization loans. Most economists in 2003-4 believed homes were overvalued but values continued to rise another three to four years until 2007-8.

Over the last thirty plus years Bay Area real estate markets were not only influenced by the health of our macro economy but also heavily influenced by Bay Area high-tech sector. Innovation creates new markets that translate into wealth creation that propels the growth of our real estate markets. The Silicon Valley influence today extends well beyond the Peninsula. In recent years the run up in Lamorinda home prices has been fueled by “new-tech” companies headquartered in San Francisco such as Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, Pinterest, Salesforce, Twitter, Dropbox and Square where previously the lengthy commute to the Silicon Valley prohibited Lamorinda from being a viable option to most tech workers.

The following page provides a historical perspective of past cycles and how Lamorinda price appreciation compares to the rest of the Bay Area.

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Historical Bay Area Home Values 500%

450%

400%

350%

300%

Over the last 30+ years in the Bay Area expansionary periods have averaged 7 years while contractionary periods have averaged 2-3 years

+94% 9 yrs

+57%

250%

5 yrs

200%

-28%

100%

2 yrs

-11%

150%

+110%

SF Earthquake

50%

1 yr

7 yrs

-12%

Dotcom Bubble

90's Recession

4 yrs

Financial Crisis

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index. 2018 data thru Q3

0%

Historical Lamorinda Home Values 300%

249%

250%

200%

Compared to high-end Bay Area homes prices since 1997, Lafayette outperformed the market, Orinda is at market while Moraga underperformed the market

+94% 9 yrs

Financial Crisis -28%

150%

2 yrs

100%

+57% 5 yrs

50%

-11% 1 yr

0%

Dotcom Bubble Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index / MLS. . 2018 data thru Q3

0%

Bay Area

Lafayette

Orinda

Moraga

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232% 229% 222%

Erin Martin

Darrick Martin

925.951.3817 Erin@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#01922810

925.900.8218 Darrick@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#02006564

Lafayette, CA

Lafayette, CA

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