Issuu

LAMORINDA Q1 2018 MARKET UPDATE Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MARTIN HOMES TEAM CHANGING HOUSES TO HOMES

www.MartinHomesTeam.com

LAMORINDA Q1 2018 MARKET UPDATE Below is a summary of Multiple Listing Service (“MLS”) data for Lamorinda residential detached home sales over the last twelve months from April 2017 to March 2018 (the prior-year comparison is from April 2016 to March 2017). In summary: •

• • • • •

Our real estate market remains strong as the early Spring market delivered record figures for most of Lamorinda. Lamorinda average sales price is now $1.57M, up 6%, average sales price per square foot is $618, up 5%, and average days on market is down 5% to only 25 days Lafayette continues to outpace both Moraga and Orinda. Lafayette’s average sales price is now $1.60M and average sales price per square foot is $647, up 9% Moraga transaction volumes are up 42% year-over-year and continues to experience solid gains in sales price and average sales price per square foot Orinda has experienced only modest price growth and average days on market is up 16% to 27 days The biggest gains in Lamorinda came from homes between 2,500–3,500 square feet where the price per square foot is up 8%. Families are feeling more confident about their financial situation and are moving up into larger homes The new tax plan does not appear to be impacting our real estate markets

The following pages provide further details and breaks down the numbers by home size.

www.MartinHomesTeam.com

Lamorinda

Lamorinda, CA Detached Residential Transactions Apr '17 - Mar '18

Home Size # of Transactions

< 1,501 SQFT

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

338

216

134

746

$1,004,155 $1,295,000 $571,000

$1,271,757 $2,205,000 $650,000

$1,695,605 $2,755,000 $801,000

$2,377,292 $6,500,000 $1,210,000

$1,572,255 $6,500,000 $571,000

$794 $1,022 $489

$637 $1,125 $367

$581 $928 $316

$551 $1,071 $295

$618 $1,125 $295

14 64 0

19 276 0

27 234 0

40 336 0

25 336 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Change From Prior 12-Months (Apr '17 - Mar '18 vs. Apr '16 - Mar '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT Total Home Size # of Transactions 41.5% 12.7% 26.3% 41.1% 22.9% Sales Price Average 3.9% 3.6% 7.2% 0.2% 5.6% High 2.4% -0.7% 5.4% 27.9% 27.9% Low -10.1% -12.8% 6.8% 2.1% -10.1% Sales Price Per SQFT -0.4% 5.2% Average 7.5% 5.6% 7.5% 8.1% 9.1% 13.1% High 4.1% 13.1% 9.9% 1.1% 2.5% Low 2.8% 8.0% Days on MLS -5.6% -18.9% -5.0% Average -13.6% 3.0% 36.0% 0.3% 0.3% High -4.5% 124.4% NA NA NA Low NA NA

Home Size # of Transactions

Apr '16 - Mar '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

300

171

607

$966,344 $1,265,000 $635,000

$1,227,509 $2,220,000 $745,000

$1,582,194 $2,615,000 $750,000

$2,372,693 $5,082,388 $1,185,000

$1,489,018 $5,082,388 $635,000

$738 $982 $476

$604 $994 $340

$540 $858 $287

$553 $982 $292

$587 $994 $287

16 67 0

19 123 0

28 172 0

49 335 0

26 335 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Source: MLS

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

1 of 4

Lafayette

Lafayette, CA Detached Residential Transactions Apr '17 - Mar '18

Home Size # of Transactions

< 1,501 SQFT

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

138

326

$1,021,564 $1,295,000 $675,000

$1,287,247 $2,200,000 $812,000

$1,725,414 $2,755,000 $801,000

$2,461,480 $6,500,000 $1,375,000

$1,604,749 $6,500,000 $675,000

$831 $1,022 $547

$667 $1,125 $420

$592 $928 $316

$566 $1,071 $295

$647 $1,125 $295

15 64 3

17 94 0

23 234 0

38 336 0

22 336 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Change From Prior 12-Months (Apr '17 - Mar '18 vs. Apr '16 - Mar '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT Total Home Size # of Transactions 77.3% 15.0% 22.1% 50.0% 28.3% Sales Price Average 5.8% 6.7% 7.7% -0.1% 6.3% High 2.4% 0.0% 5.4% 27.9% 27.9% Low 6.3% 5.1% -13.4% 3.8% 6.3% Sales Price Per SQFT 0.2% 9.2% Average 12.8% 10.2% 9.1% 8.1% 22.8% 13.1% High 8.2% 13.1% 9.9% -11.8% 2.5% Low 3.3% 23.6% Days on MLS -25.7% -6.6% -14.0% Average -4.7% -15.9% 36.0% 79.7% 79.7% High 10.3% -19.0% NA NA NA Low NA NA

Home Size # of Transactions

Apr '16 - Mar '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

120

254

$965,864 $1,265,000 $635,000

$1,206,879 $2,200,000 $772,650

$1,602,723 $2,615,000 $925,000

$2,464,380 $5,082,388 $1,325,000

$1,509,813 $5,082,388 $635,000

$736 $945 $529

$605 $994 $340

$543 $858 $287

$565 $873 $334

$593 $994 $287

16 58 0

20 116 0

31 172 0

41 187 0

26 187 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Source: MLS

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

2 of 4

Moraga

Moraga, CA Detached Residential Transactions Apr '17 - Mar '18

Home Size # of Transactions

< 1,501 SQFT

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

166

$931,000 $1,125,000 $571,000

$1,228,154 $1,875,000 $725,000

$1,634,400 $2,650,000 $1,050,000

$1,920,167 $2,554,000 $1,375,000

$1,406,933 $2,650,000 $571,000

$670 $789 $489

$594 $830 $380

$554 $768 $333

$458 $531 $376

$573 $830 $333

12 17 8

19 245 0

33 158 0

36 159 0

25 245 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Change From Prior 12-Months (Apr '17 - Mar '18 vs. Apr '16 - Mar '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT Total Home Size # of Transactions 100.0% 23.0% 83.9% 33.3% 41.9% Sales Price Average 14.5% 3.0% 11.3% 13.4% 8.7% High 11.4% 11.6% 34.2% -7.1% -3.6% Low -16.6% -2.7% 0.0% 16.0% -16.6% Sales Price Per SQFT 15.6% 4.3% Average 15.3% 2.4% 7.2% 16.0% -4.2% 11.2% High 11.8% 11.2% -10.4% 28.8% 14.1% Low 2.8% -7.5% Days on MLS 25.9% -72.6% -18.4% Average 81.6% -8.5% 22.5% -52.5% -26.9% High 54.5% 99.2% NA NA NA Low NA NA

Home Size # of Transactions

Apr '16 - Mar '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

117

$813,000 $1,010,000 $685,000

$1,192,142 $1,680,000 $745,000

$1,468,097 $1,975,000 $1,050,000

$1,693,222 $2,750,000 $1,185,000

$1,294,081 $2,750,000 $685,000

$581 $706 $476

$580 $747 $411

$517 $662 $371

$397 $554 $292

$549 $747 $292

6 11 0

21 123 0

26 129 0

131 335 0

31 335 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Source: MLS

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

3 of 4

Orinda

Orinda, CA Detached Residential Transactions Apr '17 - Mar '18

Home Size # of Transactions

< 1,501 SQFT

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

109

254

$985,692 $1,250,000 $750,000

$1,288,547 $2,205,000 $650,000

$1,708,952 $2,570,000 $1,025,000

$2,376,025 $4,000,000 $1,210,000

$1,638,596 $4,000,000 $650,000

$741 $937 $592

$636 $900 $367

$589 $888 $365

$552 $824 $305

$609 $937 $305

11 25 0

22 276 0

26 187 0

43 260 0

27 276 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Change From Prior 12-Months (Apr '17 - Mar '18 vs. Apr '16 - Mar '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT Total Home Size # of Transactions -18.8% 2.8% 5.6% 33.3% 7.6% Sales Price Average -1.0% 1.0% 6.0% -1.9% 4.8% High 1.6% -0.7% -0.8% -14.0% -14.0% Low 3.4% -21.2% 36.7% 0.8% -10.3% Sales Price Per SQFT -3.8% 1.6% Average -3.9% 2.8% 7.5% 12.5% -16.1% -4.6% High -4.6% -1.3% 25.6% -4.9% 5.0% Low -0.7% -8.4% Days on MLS -2.8% 5.9% 16.0% Average -40.0% 42.9% 62.6% 111.4% 124.4% High -62.7% 140.0% NA NA NA Low NA NA

Home Size # of Transactions

Apr '16 - Mar '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

106

236

$995,757 $1,230,000 $725,000

$1,275,552 $2,220,000 $825,000

$1,611,930 $2,590,000 $750,000

$2,422,240 $4,650,000 $1,200,000

$1,563,278 $4,650,000 $725,000

$771 $982 $596

$619 $911 $401

$548 $789 $290

$574 $982 $320

$600 $982 $290

18 67 0

16 115 0

27 115 0

41 123 0

24 123 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Source: MLS

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

4 of 4

HISTORICAL BAY AREA & LAMORINDA MARKET PERFORMANCE It is helpful to provide historical context to our real estate market to understand past cycles and how Lamorinda faired compared to the rest of the Bay Area. Each cycle always has different market influences and therefore makes pinpointing the exact timing of when cycles begin and end very difficult. Even during bubble or irrational exuberance periods markets can run well beyond what market experts believe is rational. An example is the 2008-9 Financial Crisis caused by early 2000’s lax underwriting mortgage standards that allowed housing prices to skyrocket from zero-down and negative amortization loans. Most economists in 2003-4 believed homes were overvalued but values continued to rise another three to four years until 2007-8. Over the last thirty plus years Bay Area real estate markets were not only influenced by the health of our macro economy but also heavily influenced by Bay Area high-tech sector. Innovation creates new markets that translate into wealth creation that propels the growth of our real estate markets. The Silicon Valley influence today extends well beyond the Peninsula. In recent years the run up in Lamorinda home prices has been fueled by “newtech” companies headquartered in San Francisco such as Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, Pinterest, Salesforce, Twitter, Dropbox and Square where previously the lengthy commute to the Silicon Valley prohibited Lamorinda from being a viable option to most tech workers. The following page provides a historical perspective of past cycles and how Lamorinda price appreciation compares to the rest of the Bay Area.

www.MartinHomesTeam.com

Historical Bay Area Home Values 500%

450%

400%

350%

300%

250%

Over the last 30+ years in the Bay Area expansionary periods have averaged 7 years while contractionary periods have averaged 2-3 years

+85% 9 yrs

+57% 5 yrs

-28%

200%

2 yrs

100%

Financial Crisis

-11%

150%

1 yr

+110%

SF Earthquake

7 yrs

Dotcom Bubble

50%

-12%

90's Recession

4 yrs

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index

Historical Lamorinda Home Values 300%

250%

200%

150%

+85% 9 yrs

Compared to high-end Bay Area homes prices since 1997, Lafayette outperformed the market, Orinda is at market while Moraga underperformed the market

-28%

+57% 5 yrs

50%

-11% 1 yr

225% 224% 20 0 %

Financial Crisis

2 yrs 100%

240 %

Dotcom Bubble

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index / MLS

Bay Area

Lafayette

Orinda

Moraga

www.MartinHomesTeam.com

Lafayette, CA

Erin Martin

Darrick Martin

925.951.3817 Erin@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#01922810

925.900.8218 Darrick@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#02006564

Lafayette, CA