LAMORINDA Q2 2018 MARKET UPDATE Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin
MARTIN HOMES TEAM CHANGING HOUSES TO HOMES
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LAMORINDA Q2 2018 MARKET UPDATE Below is a summary of Multiple Listing Service (“MLS”) data for Lamorinda residential detached home sales over the last twelve months from July 2017 to June 2018 (the prioryear comparison is from July 2016 to June 2017). In summary: •
• • •
Our real estate market remains strong - The late Spring market delivered record figures for most of Lamorinda. Lamorinda average sales price is now $1.60M, up 4%, average sales price per square foot is $627, up 4%, and average days on market is down 6% to only 24 days Lafayette continues to outpace both Moraga and Orinda - Lafayette’s average sales price is now $1.64M and average sales price per square foot is $658, up 6%. Average sales price per square foot is $569, up 2% for Moraga and $626, up 3% for Orinda Smaller size homes experienced the largest gains - Average sales price per square foot is up 5% for homes < 1,500 sqft and 7% for homes between 1,501–2,500 sqft Larger, higher priced homes are showing signs of softening - Average sales price per square foot is down 4% for homes > 3,500 sqft. This trend is more concentrated on homes priced $3.0M and above. Rising mortgage rates and the impact of the New Tax Plan, where real estate taxes for most Lamorinda homeowners are no longer deductible, are increasing the switching costs for move-up buyers that previously locked-in a historical low mortgage rate and have a $1M tax basis on their existing home
The following pages provide further details and breaks down the numbers by home size.
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Lamorinda
Lamorinda, CA Detached Residential Transactions Jul '17 - Jun '18
< 1,501 SQFT
Home Size # of Transactions
1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
Total
58
331
218
128
735
$1,021,071 $1,365,000 $571,000
$1,298,962 $2,200,000 $650,000
$1,733,424 $3,340,000 $801,000
$2,394,348 $6,500,000 $1,210,000
$1,596,655 $6,500,000 $571,000
$807 $1,209 $489
$655 $1,125 $367
$584 $1,049 $316
$547 $1,071 $295
$627 $1,209 $295
13 64 0
18 276 0
26 187 0
42 336 0
24 336 0
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Home Size
Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '17 - Jun '18 vs. Jul '16 - Jun '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
# of Transactions
Total
26.1%
5.4%
19.1%
16.4%
12.6%
4.1% 9.2% -10.1%
4.8% -0.9% -10.3%
3.8% 23.7% 6.8%
-0.5% 3.2% 0.9%
3.8% 3.2% -10.1%
4.9% 23.1% 2.8%
7.3% 13.1% 8.0%
2.1% 21.7% 9.9%
-3.8% 2.6% 1.1%
3.9% 15.8% 2.5%
-16.2% 0.0% NA
-5.6% 12.7% NA
-11.4% -20.1% NA
-3.0% 63.1% NA
-6.3% 37.1% NA
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Home Size # of Transactions
Jul '16 - Jun '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
Total
46
314
183
110
653
$980,391 $1,250,000 $635,000
$1,240,033 $2,220,000 $725,000
$1,669,834 $2,700,000 $750,000
$2,405,383 $6,300,000 $1,199,000
$1,538,499 $6,300,000 $635,000
$769 $982 $476
$610 $994 $340
$572 $862 $287
$568 $1,044 $292
$604 $1,044 $287
16 64 0
19 245 0
30 234 0
43 206 0
26 245 0
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Source: MLS
Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin
MartinHomesTeam.com
1 of 4
Lafayette
Lafayette, CA Detached Residential Transactions Jul '17 - Jun '18
< 1,501 SQFT
Home Size # of Transactions
1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
Total
34
135
77
63
309
$1,040,868 $1,349,000 $675,000
$1,338,092 $2,200,000 $812,000
$1,767,828 $2,875,000 $801,000
$2,466,947 $6,500,000 $1,375,000
$1,642,629 $6,500,000 $675,000
$850 $1,209 $565
$692 $1,125 $420
$594 $934 $316
$558 $1,071 $295
$658 $1,209 $295
15 64 3
17 94 0
23 143 0
37 336 0
22 336 0
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Home Size
Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '17 - Jun '18 vs. Jul '16 - Jun '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
# of Transactions
Total
21.4%
7.1%
4.1%
21.2%
10.4%
6.5% 7.9% 6.3%
10.8% 0.0% 5.1%
3.0% 6.5% -5.8%
-3.0% 3.2% -1.8%
4.8% 3.2% 6.3%
8.5% 24.5% 6.8%
12.2% 13.1% 23.6%
1.9% 8.3% 9.9%
-5.4% 2.6% -14.2%
6.2% 15.8% 2.5%
-5.7% 10.3% NA
-6.7% -19.0% NA
-27.6% -38.9% NA
-7.5% 79.7% NA
-12.5% 43.6% NA
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Home Size # of Transactions
Jul '16 - Jun '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
Total
28
126
74
52
280
$977,018 $1,250,000 $635,000
$1,207,497 $2,200,000 $772,650
$1,715,989 $2,700,000 $850,000
$2,543,487 $6,300,000 $1,400,000
$1,566,949 $6,300,000 $635,000
$783 $971 $529
$616 $994 $340
$583 $862 $287
$590 $1,044 $343
$619 $1,044 $287
16 58 0
18 116 0
31 234 0
40 187 0
25 234 0
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Source: MLS
Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin
MartinHomesTeam.com
2 of 4
Moraga
Moraga, CA Detached Residential Transactions Jul '17 - Jun '18
< 1,501 SQFT
Home Size # of Transactions
1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
Total
4
80
62
14
160
$900,250 $1,125,000 $571,000
$1,244,256 $1,875,000 $828,000
$1,618,946 $2,200,000 $1,050,000
$1,912,570 $2,800,000 $1,375,000
$1,439,326 $2,800,000 $571,000
$647 $789 $489
$604 $830 $434
$546 $695 $333
$452 $531 $376
$569 $830 $333
11 17 8
15 129 0
27 126 0
33 159 0
21 159 0
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Home Size
Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '17 - Jun '18 vs. Jul '16 - Jun '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
# of Transactions
Total
0.0%
2.6%
77.1%
40.0%
26.0%
-2.1% 8.7% -16.6%
3.7% 11.6% 14.2%
4.7% -17.0% -4.5%
6.3% 1.8% 14.7%
7.9% 1.8% -16.6%
-1.0% 8.1% 2.8%
3.9% 7.3% 14.3%
0.9% -9.5% -17.8%
6.3% -4.2% 28.8%
1.6% 7.3% 14.1%
-8.7% 13.3% NA
-33.3% -47.3% NA
-22.6% -20.3% NA
-48.7% -22.8% NA
-27.1% -35.1% NA
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Home Size # of Transactions
Jul '16 - Jun '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
Total
4
78
35
10
127
$920,000 $1,035,000 $685,000
$1,199,321 $1,680,000 $725,000
$1,546,897 $2,650,000 $1,100,000
$1,799,900 $2,750,000 $1,199,000
$1,333,602 $2,750,000 $685,000
$654 $730 $476
$581 $774 $380
$541 $768 $404
$425 $554 $292
$560 $774 $292
12 15 8
23 245 0
35 158 0
64 206 0
29 245 0
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Source: MLS
Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin
MartinHomesTeam.com
3 of 4
Orinda
Orinda, CA Detached Residential Transactions Jul '17 - Jun '18
< 1,501 SQFT
Home Size # of Transactions
1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
Total
20
116
79
51
266
$1,011,582 $1,365,000 $706,500
$1,291,151 $1,850,000 $650,000
$1,789,733 $3,340,000 $1,025,000
$2,436,919 $4,250,000 $1,210,000
$1,637,883 $4,250,000 $650,000
$766 $1,007 $592
$647 $907 $367
$605 $1,049 $359
$558 $909 $305
$626 $1,049 $305
11 25 0
21 276 0
29 187 0
51 294 0
28 294 0
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Home Size
Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '17 - Jun '18 vs. Jul '16 - Jun '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
# of Transactions
Total
42.9%
5.5%
6.8%
6.3%
8.1%
0.7% 12.8% -2.6%
-1.1% -16.7% -24.4%
6.4% 29.0% 36.7%
2.3% 9.0% -3.2%
1.6% 9.0% -10.3%
-1.1% 2.6% -5.1%
3.8% -0.5% -11.2%
5.0% 32.5% 23.6%
-2.8% 6.1% -12.5%
3.0% 6.8% 5.0%
-36.0% -60.9% NA
20.5% 81.6% NA
14.1% 62.6% NA
19.1% 79.3% NA
14.6% 79.3% NA
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Home Size # of Transactions
Jul '16 - Jun '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT
Total
14
110
74
48
246
$1,004,392 $1,210,000 $725,000
$1,306,170 $2,220,000 $860,000
$1,681,826 $2,590,000 $750,000
$2,381,912 $3,900,000 $1,250,000
$1,611,899 $3,900,000 $725,000
$774 $982 $624
$624 $911 $413
$577 $792 $290
$574 $857 $348
$608 $982 $290
17 64 0
18 152 0
26 115 0
42 164 0
25 164 0
Sales Price Average High Low
Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low
Days on MLS Average High Low
Source: MLS
Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin
MartinHomesTeam.com
4 of 4
HISTORICAL BAY AREA & LAMORINDA MARKET PERFORMANCE It is helpful to provide historical context to our real estate market to understand past cycles and how Lamorinda faired compared to the rest of the Bay Area. Each cycle always has different market influences and therefore makes pinpointing the exact timing of when cycles begin and end very difficult. Even during bubble or irrational exuberance periods markets can run well beyond what market experts believe is rational. An example is the 2008-9 Financial Crisis caused by early 2000’s lax underwriting mortgage standards that allowed housing prices to skyrocket from zero-down and negative amortization loans. Most economists in 2003-4 believed homes were overvalued but values continued to rise another three to four years until 2007-8. Over the last thirty plus years Bay Area real estate markets were not only influenced by the health of our macro economy but also heavily influenced by Bay Area high-tech sector. Innovation creates new markets that translate into wealth creation that propels the growth of our real estate markets. The Silicon Valley influence today extends well beyond the Peninsula. In recent years the run up in Lamorinda home prices has been fueled by “newtech” companies headquartered in San Francisco such as Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, Pinterest, Salesforce, Twitter, Dropbox and Square where previously the lengthy commute to the Silicon Valley prohibited Lamorinda from being a viable option to most tech workers. The following page provides a historical perspective of past cycles and how Lamorinda price appreciation compares to the rest of the Bay Area.
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Historical Bay Area Home Values 500%
450%
400%
350%
300%
250%
Over the last 30+ years in the Bay Area expansionary periods have averaged 7 years while contractionary periods have averaged 2-3 years
+85% 9 yrs
+57% 5 yrs
-28%
200%
2 yrs
100%
Financial Crisis
-11%
150%
1 yr
+110%
SF Earthquake
7 yrs
Dotcom Bubble
50%
-12%
90's Recession
4 yrs
0%
Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index
Historical Lamorinda Home Values 300%
250%
200%
150%
+85% 9 yrs
Compared to high-end Bay Area homes prices since 1997, Lafayette outperformed the market, Orinda is at market while Moraga underperformed the market
-28%
+57% 5 yrs
50%
-11% 1 yr
0%
225% 224% 20 0 %
Financial Crisis
2 yrs 100%
240 %
Dotcom Bubble
Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index / MLS
0%
Bay Area
Lafayette
Orinda
Moraga
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Lafayette, CA
Erin Martin
Darrick Martin
925.951.3817 Erin@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#01922810
925.900.8218 Darrick@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#02006564
Lafayette, CA
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