The real GDP growth for the Q1 FY24 will come at 8.1% : SBI

Withdrawal of Rs 2,000 note can boost growth by pushing consumpon: Report

MUMBAI: The Rs. 2,000 note withdrawal decision and response to it so far suggest that the move can help boost FY24 GDP growth to beyond 6.5% estimated by the RBI, areportsaid.TherealGDPgrowthfor the first quarter of FY24 will come at 8.1% with an upward bias and the ReserveBankofIndia's6.5%estimate can also be exceeded, economists at thecountry'slargestlenderSBIsaid.

"We expect Q1 FY24 GDP growth at8.1%withanupwardbiasduetothe impact of Rs. 2,000 note withdrawal event...this reinforces our projection that FY24 GDP could be higher than 6.5%, basis the RBI estimate," a note said.

It can be noted that earlier this month,theRBIinformedthatoverhalf of the currency notes in the denomination have returned back, with 85% of it coming as deposits into banks, while the remaining 15% have been exchanged at bank counters.

Based on this experience, the SBI note saidtheconsumptioncangetaRs.55,000 croreboostbecauseofthemove.

It estimated Rs. 3.08 lakh crore to come back as deposits into the system, of which Rs. 92,000 crore will come into saving banks accounts, of which 60% will get withdrawn, thus giving an immediate increase in consumption at Rs. 55,000 crore. In the long run, the boost can be Rs. 1.83 lakh crore because of the consumptionmultiplier,itadded.

"One of the major benefits of withdrawal of Rs. 2000 note might be the immediate uptick in consumption demand," the report said. It is expected that high-value amounts could move to high-value spends, accordingtothenote.

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