Jan e-way bill generation ebbs from peak but still robust

NEW DELHI: Generation of electronic permits in January for goods shipment within and across states came off the peak seen at the end of the fiscal third quarter but remained above 82.4 million, official data showed, indicating that the New Year has started off with robust economicactivity.

E-way bill generation in January is a notch below the 84.1 million seen in December, but it is the third straight month of remaining above 80 million andhigherthanthe68.8millionseenin January last year. Early e-way bill trendinthelastquarterofthefinancial yearpointstothepossibilityofrevenue collectionsremainingstrong.

Another high-frequency indicator, the seasonally-adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), showed earlier this month that manufacturing activity in the country recordedthe19thsuccessivemonthly improvement in operating conditions in January. Despite falling from the high of 57.8 in December, the manufacturing PMI figure remained aboveitslong-runaverage,backedby demand resilience and favourable economic conditions supporting sales. PMI is based on a survey, while e-way bills generation is based on actual supplies that require transportation.

Experts found e-way bill data as a pointer to a healthy fourth quarter. “The GST e-way bill numbers are very enthusing. These should signal a pickup in economic activity in the current quarter. The base, however, might be somewhat constrained on account of the onset of the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in January 2022,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief EconomistatratingagencyIcraLtd.

The Government has assumed a growth of about 12% in GST revenue collections in FY24. Going by that, the average monthly GST receipts in FY24 could be in the range of ₹1.68 trillion, a Senior Government Officialsaidonconditionofanonymity.