KNOWLEDGE SERIES
KNOWLEDGE SERIES THE GREAT TRANSITION: LESSONS FROM A HALF-DECADE OF ZEB DEPLOYMENT
2026 2026
FULL REPORT
2026 Volume 7 Number 1
Written by: Dr. Josipa Petrunić, President and CEO Bernard Ross, Zero Emissions Bus (ZEB) Simulation Modeller Ryan Welfle, IP Development Lead
ALL BACKGROUND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND MODELLING TOOLS, INPUT AND OUTPUT VARIABLES REMAIN IN THE SOLE OWNERSHIP OF CUTRIC. ANY USE, REPRODUCTION OR REDISTRIBUTION MUST INCLUDE PROPER CREDIT TO CUTRIC AS THE SOURCE AND AT THEIR OWN DISCRETION AND RESPONSIBILITY. COPYRIGHT © 2026 CUTRIC-CRITUC
CUTRIC-CRITUC, KNOWLEDGE SERIES, THE GREAT TRANSITION: LESSONS FROM A HALF-DECADE OF ZEB DEPLOYMENT VOLUME 7. NO. 1 (2026)
Table of contents Table of contents .................................................................................................................... 2 List of figures ........................................................................................................................... 4 Acronym list ............................................................................................................................. 5 Intellectual property (IP), confidentiality and copyright statement ..................................... 7 Background IP ...................................................................................................................... 7 Confidentiality and non-disclosure statement .................................................................. 7 Executive summary ................................................................................................................. 8 1
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 23
2
Recent technology advancements ............................................................................... 25
3
2.1
Battery electric buses (BEBs)................................................................................ 25
2.2
Hydrogen fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) ........................................................... 26
2.3
Charge management systems (CMS) .................................................................. 27
Case study: zero emissions transit feasibility – Cochrane On-Demand Local Transit 29 3.1
The operational context......................................................................................... 29
3.2
Technical performance and success rates ......................................................... 30
3.3
Economic and environmental paradoxes ............................................................ 31
3.4
Conclusion and strategic recommendations ...................................................... 31
4
Case study: Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) ........................................................ 33
5
Case study: Rout∑.i™ Social impact analytics ............................................................. 35 5.1
Evolution from noise reduction to holistic equity ................................................ 35
5.2
Scaling to Rout∑.i™ Social 2.0 ............................................................................... 35
2 All background intellectual property and modelling tools, input and output variables remain in the sole ownership of CUTRIC. Any use, reproduction or redistribution must include proper credit to CUTRIC as the source and at their own discretion and responsibility. Copyright © 2026 CUTRIC-CRITUC CUTRIC-CRITUC, Knowledge Series, The Great Transition: Lessons from a Half-Decade of ZEB Deployment. Volume 7. No. 1 (2026)
6 Industry insights: Heliox, A Siemens Business and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) infrastructure............................................................................................................. 38 7
8
Market opportunities and challenges: Panel discussion insights ............................. 40 7.1
Operational feasibility and data accuracy............................................................ 40
7.2
Technological advancements in charge management....................................... 40
7.3
The human factor: Charge management and operator psychology .................. 41
7.4
The impact of industry standards......................................................................... 42
Government advocacy and funding landscape ........................................................... 44 8.1
Pillar 1: Bolstering the CPTF through dedicated infrastructure funding portfolios 45
8.2 Pillar 2: Establishing a workable harmonized Canadian content framework (HCCF) ................................................................................................................................ 46 8.3 Pillar 3: Cross-pollinating investments in zero emissions bus (ZEB) infrastructure with the Automotive Strategy ................................................................... 49 8.4 9
Pillar 4: Cross-pollinating with the modernized Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS) 50
Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 53 9.1
Recent technological advances ............................................................................ 53
9.2
Case studies ........................................................................................................... 53
9.3
Industry and market insights ................................................................................ 54
9.4
Government advocacy ........................................................................................... 55
9.5
Final conclusion ..................................................................................................... 56
References ............................................................................................................................. 57
3 All background intellectual property and modelling tools, input and output variables remain in the sole ownership of CUTRIC. Any use, reproduction or redistribution must include proper credit to CUTRIC as the source and at their own discretion and responsibility. Copyright © 2026 CUTRIC-CRITUC CUTRIC-CRITUC, Knowledge Series, The Great Transition: Lessons from a Half-Decade of ZEB Deployment. Volume 7. No. 1 (2026)
List of figures Figure 1. Improvements in ZEB technology since 2020..................................................... 11 Figure 2. Summary of Cochrane on-demand transit analysis ........................................... 13 Figure 3. Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) key outcomes ............................................ 15 Figure 4. Socio-economic impact of ZEBs .......................................................................... 17 Figure 5. Panel discussion outcomes.................................................................................. 18 Figure 6. Federal advocacy four core pillars ....................................................................... 21 Figure 7. Advancements in BEBs ......................................................................................... 26 Figure 8. Advancements in FCEBs ....................................................................................... 27 Figure 9. Advancements in CMS .......................................................................................... 28 Figure 10. Electrification cases ............................................................................................ 30 Figure 11. Case One (25-foot BEB solution) summary....................................................... 32 Figure 12. Case Two (30-foot BEB solution) summary ...................................................... 32 Figure 13. Parameters assessed in the social analysis ..................................................... 36 Figure 14. Charge management and operator psychology ............................................... 41 Figure 15. Impact of industry standards ............................................................................. 43 Figure 16. Pillar 1: Bolstering the CPTF through dedicated infrastructure funding portfolios ................................................................................................................................ 46 Figure 17. Pillar 2: Establishing a workable harmonized Canadian content framework (HCCF) .................................................................................................................................... 48 Figure 18. Pillar 3: Cross-pollinating investments in ZEB infrastructure with the Automotive Strategy.............................................................................................................. 50 Figure 19. Pillar 4: Cross-pollinating with the modernized Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS) ........................................................................................................................................ 52
4 All background intellectual property and modelling tools, input and output variables remain in the sole ownership of CUTRIC. Any use, reproduction or redistribution must include proper credit to CUTRIC as the source and at their own discretion and responsibility. Copyright © 2026 CUTRIC-CRITUC CUTRIC-CRITUC, Knowledge Series, The Great Transition: Lessons from a Half-Decade of ZEB Deployment. Volume 7. No. 1 (2026)
Acronym list BCSF BEB BOREALIS CAPEX CCIIRT CCV CETA CMS CNG COLT CPTF CUSMA CUTRIC DBRF DC DIA DIS EVSE FACT FCEB GIS H2 HCCF HICC HVAC IP ISO ITB kWh
Build Communities Strong Fund Battery electric bus Bureau of Research, Engineering and Advanced Leadership in Innovation and Science Capital expenditures Canadian Cybersecurity Innovation Initiative in Rail and Transit Canadian content value Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement Charge management system Compressed natural gas Cochrane On-Demand Local Transit Canadian Public Transit Fund Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium Depot Build and Retrofit Fund Direct current Defence Investment Agency Defence Industrial Strategy Electric vehicle supply equipment Foreign Affairs, Commerce and Trade Fuel cell electric bus Geographic information systems Hydrogen Harmonized Canadian content framework Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada Heating, ventilation and air conditioning Intellectual property International Organization for Standardization Industrial and technological benefits Kilowatt-hour 5
All background intellectual property and modelling tools, input and output variables remain in the sole ownership of CUTRIC. Any use, reproduction or redistribution must include proper credit to CUTRIC as the source and at their own discretion and responsibility. Copyright © 2026 CUTRIC-CRITUC CUTRIC-CRITUC, Knowledge Series, The Great Transition: Lessons from a Half-Decade of ZEB Deployment. Volume 7. No. 1 (2026)