Q2-2021 | Office Marketbeat | Luxembourg

M A R K E T B E AT

Luxembourg Office Market Office Q2 2021

YoY Chg

12-Mo. Forecast

268,000

Take-Up YTD (sq m)

Economic Overview After a limited decline in 2020, the real GDP growth is expected to bounce back to 6% on an annual basis in 2021, before moderating to 3.3% in 2022. Luxembourg’s economy performed relatively well in 2020, thanks to information and communication exports and the financial services sector. In recent weeks, the accelerating pace of the vaccination campaign and the improvement of the health situation have prompted a gradual relaxation of restrictions affecting contact-intensive services. This trend is assumed to continue in the coming months, along with a broader reopening of the economy.

€52

Prime Rent, (€/sq m/ Month)

3.50%

Prime Yield (3/6/9 Lease)

Sentiment indicators also suggest a positive outlook for Luxembourg’s economy. Business sentiment has improved, also outside the financial services sector. Consumer sentiment, meanwhile, showed a strong recovery in spring, particularly concerning expectations about consumers’ future financial situation. This is in line with an observed increase in employment, which should also support the rebound in consumption. Despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate forecasted to 7.4% this year, unemployment rate should decrease as from 2022.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q2 2021

Inflation is projected to rise to 2.5% in 2021 due to oil price increases, the introduction of a carbon tax, the rebound in consumption, and base effects linked to the introduction of free public transportation in 2020. However, this pressure on prices is expected to be temporary and to ease in 2022. Consequently, inflation is expected to decline to 1.7% in 2022.

Vacancy Rate

3.60%

7.4%

YoY Chg

12-Mo. Forecast

Unemployment Rate 2021

GDP Growt h

Unemployment r at e

20 21 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 25

20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20

20 15 20 16

20 21 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 25

Please note the economic data can vary significantly from one source to the other. Therefore, the figures provided should merely be used as an indication or trend.

20 19 20 20

Source: Statec.lu, Eurostat

20 18

Inflation for 2021

Employment growth 5,0% 4,5% 4,0 % 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0 % 0, 5% 0, 0%

20 17

2.5%

8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 20 16

GDP Growth for 2021

GDP Growth (LHS) and Unemployment rate (RHS)

20 15

6%

M A R K E T B E AT

Luxembourg Office Market Office Q2 2021 A record half-year despite unprecedented context

Take-up (in 000s sq m, LHS) & number of deals (RHS)

Following a year 2020 which recorded solid performance with more than 350,000 sq m, helped by important transactions of the public sector (namely the CNS and the European Investment Bank), the year 2021 witnessed its best start ever, with already 268,000 sq m of take-up, mainly driven by the public sector: 127,000 sq m occupied by the European Parliament in the brand new KAD 2 in the Kirchberg, the occupation of the Post Luxembourg (27,000 sq m in place de la Gare) or the occupation of the OPOCE in the Mercier building (18,000 sq m). However, some important transactions from the private sector are also to point out: 17,000 sq m let by the Société Générale in the Icone building or 10,000 sq m let by Union Investment in the Aerogolf in the Airport district.

400

If the COVID-19 outbreak massively introduced Working from Home (WFH) policies all around the globe, the implementation of a structural WFH policy in Luxembourg will be more limited than in any other European country, and this for personal income tax and social security reasons. Today, 48% of the Luxembourg labour force is composed of cross-border commuters. To benefit from the attractive Luxembourg income tax and social security system, those cross-border commuters need to operate physically in country and are allowed to work outside of the country only 25% of the time. This will therefore limit the space reductions due to WFH and will contribute to a dynamic letting market, helped by robust economic fundamentals and strong employment growth in the coming months.

0

The vacancy rate will remain stable in 2021 before new downward movement as from 2022 The office stock in Luxembourg is on a continuous rise these last years, standing currently around 4,4 million sq m.

This stock is expected to grow at a pace of 150,000 to 180,000 sq m per year and will reach the 5 million sq m cap in 2025. Close to 520,000 sq m are currently under construction while 200,000 sq m could be launched, depending on the economy and market dynamics.

On this 520,000 sq m, roughly 50% are already pre-let, while the rest is still available at the time being. Worth mentioning that the impact on the vacancy rate should remain relatively limited as we forecast a stability of the vacancy by the end of 2021. The vacancy rate should decrease as from 2022 and could even record better performances if the letting activity continues to peak up in the coming months.

Prime rents on the rise in 2021 and further increase expecetd for the coming years

300

350

250

300

200

250 200

150

150

100

100

50

50

Q1

Q2

Q3

20 21

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

20 16

20 15

0

Q4

# Deals

Awaited new supply (000s sq m, LHS) & Vacancy rate (RHS)

250

4,0 %

200

3,8%

150

3,6%

100

3,4%

50

3,2%

0 2020 2021 Deliver ed

2022 2023 2024 Awaited new supply

3,0% 2025 Vacancy r ate

Prime and average rents (EUR/sq m/month) 55

35 25

CBD Statio n Other inner dis tricts Peri phery

20 21

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

15 20 16

As market activity is expected to remain high in the coming months with a vacancy rate still at low levels, prime rental levels are forecasted to witness further upward movement in the coming months and years. If no major changes are awaited before year-end, prime rents could reach 56 EUR/sq m/month by the end of 2025 in the CBD. The other districts should record a similar evolution.

45

20 15

Prime rents in almost all the districts are on a continuous rise since 2015, ranging currently from 26 EUR in the Periphery to 52 EUR/sq m/month in the CBD. No changes are recorded so far this year with the exception of the Kirchberg which observed a slight increase of its prime rent to 41 EUR/ sq m/month.

Kirchberg Cloche d 'Or Decentralis ed

M A R K E T B E AT

Luxembourg Office Market Office Q2 2021 The investment market records robust performances As observed on the occupational market, the Luxembourg investment market witnessed strong performances in H1 2021, despite the unprecedented circumstances. Despite the COVID-19 outbreak and the travel restrictions observed these last months, the Luxembourg investment market recorded 734 MEUR, all asset classes included. This is the second best start since 2015, thanks to two solid quarters, with 301.5 and 432.5 MEUR. The office sector represents close to 85% of the total investments. Two deals have been observed on the retail investment market, the purchase of the Grand-Rue 79 by a private Luxembourg investor and the purchase of the Cora in Foetz by a Belgian investor for 70 MEUR.

Total invested volumes by quarter (MEUR) 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500

As a result of values’ increase and a strong competition for prime office assets, we observed a strong rise of the average size of the office deals in H1 21 to stand above 63 MEUR, one of the highest level observed since 2015. On 10 office transactions observed since the start of the year, 3 are above the 100 MEUR mark: the purchase of the 26,000 sq m H2O by Lonestar for 145 MEUR, the acquisition of the former Renault site in the Cloche d’Or for 130 MEUR by Atenor and the purchase of the 12,000 sq m Melius for 105 MEUR by Generali.

These recent purchases also confirm the attractiveness of the Luxembourg investment market for international investors. Indeed all the major transactions are done by foreign investors, willing to invest in Luxembourg as the country offers robust economic fundamentals, a very dynamic office market (high level of take-up, low vacancy rate and increases of the rental values) and a relatively attractive pricing compared to other European cities.

Q1

Q2

Q3

20 21

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

The average size of the office deal at high levels, boosted by transactions above the 100 MEUR mark

20 16

20 15

0

Q4

Office deals by size (LHS) and average size (MEUR, RHS) 100 %

100

80%

80

60%

60

40%

40

20%

20

Prime office yields at historically low and further compression still to expect

1 12 H

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

€10-20m €100-200m

€20-50m €200m+

Prime office yield evolution 5,5% 5,0% 4,5%

Conversely to some European cities, prime office yields are expected to compress further in 2021 to reach a new threshold of 3.50% in the CBD. And the evolution in the longer-term foresees further decrease to reach 3.40%.

4,0 %

Activity should remain intense in Luxembourg in the coming months as the country shows robust fundamentals, with positive outlook for the office market which will be less impacted than other European cities by the COVID-19 outbreak.

3,0% 20 22 20 23 20 24

H 12 1 En d21

20 19 20 20

20 18

20 15

3,5%

20 17

Looking at the other office districts, yields range from 3.60% in the CBD or the Kirchberg to 5.90% in the Periphery and stand for example at 4% in the Station or 5.15% in the other decentralised districts.

Under €10m €50-100m Average siz e

20 16

Prime office yields witnessed no changes in the first half of the year 2021, they are still at 3.60% in the CBD, their historically low levels. However, for long-term let assets, yields are below this mark as the recent sales of the Melius confirms. The deal was indeed closed at a yield of 3.50%.

20 16

0 20 15

0%

M A R K E T B E AT

Luxembourg Office Market Office Q2 2021 MARKET STATISTICS INVENTORY (SQM)

SUBMARKET

CBD Kirchberg

AVAILABILITY (SQM)

VACANCY RATE

Q2 2021 TAKE-UP

CURENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SQM)

2021 YTD TAKE-UP

PRIME RENT (€/sq m/month)

PRIME YIELD

862,000

11,000

1.3%

545

9,434

32,000

€52

3.60%

1,360,000

25,000

1.8%

129,000

130,209

194,000

€41

3.75%

Station

421,000

11,000

2.6%

3,620

51,432

28,000

€36

4.00%

Cloche d’Or

465,000

18,000

3.9%

1,350

3,484

38,000

€35

4.25%

Other inner districts

251,000

16,000

6.4%

3,027

5,149

34,000

€33

5.15%

Decentralised districts

442,000

31,000

7.0%

2,460

33,229

48,000

€28.5

5.70%

Periphery

572,000

39,000

6.8%

7,498

35,774

137,000

€26

5.90%

4,373,000

152,000

3.48%

147,422

268,715

511,000

€52

3.60%

Luxembourg (Overall)

KEY LEASE TRANSACTIONS Q2 2021 PROPERTY

SUBMARKET

TENANT

SIZE (SQ.M) TRANSACTION TYPE

KAD II

Kirchberg

European Parliament

127,000

Letting

High 5

Belair / Merl

CHL

1,933

Letting

WSV B

Capellen / Mamer / Windhof

Armacell International

1,130

Letting

H20

Howald

FWU

1,094

Letting

WSV A

Capellen / Mamer / Windhof

Cronos International

941

Letting

SEBASTIEN BEQUET Head of Luxembourg +352 27 21 33 07 sebastien.bequet@cushwake.com

cushmanwakefield.com

*Renewals not included in leasing statistics

KEY INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS Q2 2021 PROPERTY

CÉDRIC VAN MEERBEECK Head of Research & Marketing | Belgium & Luxembourg +32 477 98 11 83 cedric.vanmeerbeeck@cushwake.com

SUBMARKET

SELLER / BUYER

H2O

Cloche d’Or

Aerium Properties / Lonestar

Ex-Renault Site

Cloche d’Or

Renault France / Atenor

Melius

Cloche d’Or

Ravelin

CBD

YIELD

PRICE € MILLIONS

6.50%

145

N/A

130

Hannover Leasing / Generali

3.50%

105

Baltisse / Spanish Family Office

3.35%

41,5

A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 52,000 employees in 400 offices and 70 countries. In 2019, the firm had revenue of $8.8 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services.

©2021 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.