Proof of Altseason (October 2021)

RESEARCH NOTE 25 October 2021

Executive Summary 

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Seasonality

25 October 2021

Seasonality in the U.S. Equity Markets

Seasonality in Bitcoin

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Bitcoin Since 2010

S&P 500 Since 2010

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Mining Seasonality and Bitcoin

Seasonality in Altcoins

25 October 2021

Ethereum as a Proxy for the Altcoin Market

25 October 2021

Methodology

Mechanics of the Seasonal Effect in Ethereum

𝑟 = 𝛼 + 𝛽𝑆 + 𝜀

𝜀 =𝑟 −𝐸

[𝑟 ]

α β

α β

Disproportionate Network Effects

Linear (Money Flow) Example

25 October 2021

Network (User Flow) Example

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A Back-tested Altcoin Rotation Strategy

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25 October 2021

σ ρ β

α10

Conclusion

25 October 2021

25 October 2021