Historic Trends

The historic trends section of this newsletter presents a series of time series graphs that show changes that have occurred in Wilson County in the last ten years or more. In interpreting the historic trends graphs (H series), as well as the “recent trends” graphs (R series) that follow, one should keep in mind the obvious connections that exist between Wilson County’s economy and the U.S. economy in general. As some of our historic business data on WC goes back almost half a century (to 1970), conclusions about local business trends must take into account, for example, the various economic upturns or downturns that have occurred nationally. In particular, we should not forget the many national economic recessions that have taken place. Major U.S. recessionary periods include 1970, 1973-75, 1980-1982, 1990-1991, 2001, and 2008-2009.

Over past decades, Wilson County has shifted from a primarily agricultural community to a suburban region of Nashville, as well as a metropolitan zone in its own right. Population growth in Wilson County has been fairly constant. In 1970, a time when Richard Nixon occupied the White House and the Kansas City Chiefs were beating the heavily favored Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV, about 37,000 people lived in Wilson County. Since then, a steady average yearly influx of 2,083 individuals have moved into the county. In the past half century or so, Wilson County’s recent (2016) population of 132,781 persons is more than triple the number of residents in 1970. See Fig. H1.

Cumberland University

Founded in 1842, Cumberland University offers a variety of educational, athletic and social experiences to enhance the learning opportunities of the current student body. The university has an exceptional academic program steeped in the liberal arts, business, technology, nursing and many other fields. The University’s athletic teams regularly compete for conference and national championships. Cumberland University is located in Lebanon, Tennessee, 30 miles east of Nashville.

President ……………….…….………..... Dr. Paul Stumb Provost ………………..……..…. Dr. C. William McKee Dean, Labry School ……..……………. Dr. Chris Fuller Wilson County Trends Editor ….… Dr. Steve Shao

Cover photo: Amazon trailer yard, Gladeville, TN

Figure H1 –

Population Growth in Wilson County, 19702016*

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), US Federal Reserve System of St. Louis (*) not seasonally adjusted, data plots based on January 1st value for each year.

Figure H2 –

Civilian Labor Force in Wilson County by Month, 1990-2017*

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (*) not seasonally adjusted

Regarding employment, the size of the civilian labor force residing in Wilson County has almost doubled from 35,729 employees at the beginning of 1990 to 69,820 persons at the end of 2017. During this 38 year span, the size of WC’s workforce has increased steadily, adding about 1,200 employees annually. See Fig. H2.

Except for a drop in 2013-2014, wage earnings in Wilson County have grown steadily in the past decade. Average weekly wages in Wilson County’s business sector have increased about $7.40 annually, from $740 over a decade ago (2007) to $814 in 2017. See Fig. H3.

Since the early 1990s, WC’s unemployment rate has compared favorably with the rest of Tennessee and the nation at large. Major upwards spikes in the county’s unemployment rate (1991 and 2009 in particular) are mostly due to trickle down economic impacts during periods of national recession.

We note that the annual unemployment rate percentages (seasonally unadjusted2) for Wilson

Figure H3 –

Average Weekly Wage (Private Industries) in Wilson County, 2007-2017*

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (*) 2017 data is based on preliminary estimates

2 For certain inquiries at the county level, the US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides only seasonally unadjusted data.

County, the state of Tennessee, and the USA overall all steadily dropped during the past decade - from 8.4, 9.7 and 9.6 in 2010, respectively; to 4.6, 5.6 and 5.3 (2015), and to 2.9, 3.7 and 4.4 (2017). WC’s highest unadjusted unemployment rate, a jump from 5.1% in January 2008 to 9.6% in January 2010, was undoubtedly due at least in part to the nation’s subprime mortgage crisis that occurred at this time. See Fig. H4.

Growth in the total number of business establishments residing in Wilson County has occurred at a fairly constant rate over the past three decades or so. The net addition to WC’s economy is about 59 new businesses per year. A slight decrease in the number of establishments occurred in the 3rd to 4th quarters of 2004 but rebounded quickly in 2005. Three years later, coinciding with the 2008 U.S. recession, a somewhat flat period began in 1Q2008 and lasted until 2Q2015 before returning to its pre-recession growth rate.

Overall, we note that from January 1st 1990 to January 1st 2017, the business population in Wilson County more than doubled, increasing from 1,091 to 2,684 business establishments. See Fig. H5

Figure H4 –

Unemployment Rate in Wilson County, 19902016*

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (*) not seasonally adjusted.

Figure H5 –

Number of Business Establishments in Wilson County by Quarter, 19902017*

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (*) not seasonally adjusted