A climate of change - Western Canada Water magazine

WESTERN CANADA

WATER

T H E O F F I C I A L M A G A Z I N E O F WAT E R P R O F E S S I O N A L S A C R O S S W E S T E R N C A N A D A FALL 2015 | Volume 67 | Issue No. 3

A Climate of

CHANGE 2015 WCWAnnual Conference & Exhibition

Western Canada Water

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Winnipeg, MB September 15-18

A Climate of

CHANGE

CRYOFRONT – News, Views and Muse from the Far North

Weather anomaly: high temperatures from Inuvik to Des Moines KEN JOHNSON, STANTEC

I

n the far north, the month of May hosts the transition from winter to spring to summer. The transition is usually completed in late May in the Yukon, when the ground is thawed enough to allow easy excavation, and extends into July in Nunavut.

The historic sign of spring in the Yukon is the breakup of the Yukon River at Dawson City, which has been recorded to the nearest minute for nearly 120 years starting in 1896. The earliest recorded breakup was April 28, 1940, and the latest recorded breakup was May 28, 1964. In Nunavut, an historic sign of spring is the arrival of the annual sealift, when the ocean ice has receded to a point where the cargo ships can navigate to the communities. In Iqaluit, the first ship of the sealift has generally arrived near the end of July.

The spring of 2015 in the far north was marked with record high temperatures reported in a number of communities in the NWT. In particular, in the Village of Fort Simpson, the community had a heat wave that “flabbergasted” Environment Canada climatologists. The village broke temperature records May 10 to 14 and four days later on May 18 and 19, when the mercury approached 30 C. Looking further north up the Mackenzie Valley, more records were broken. In particular, the Town of Inuvik set a record on Thursday, May 21, with a temperature of 27 C. The temperature recorded at 4 pm on the Environment Canada website was 25 C (see Figure 1).

What made this anomaly even more interesting was the continental jet stream map, which showed a continuous ‘hot strip’ extending from Inuvik, southeast into the central United States, and beyond (see Figure 2). In Des Moines, Iowa, 3800 kilometres southeast from Inuvik, the temperature at 5 pm local time on May 21, was a comparable 24 C (see Figure 3).

An explanation of this phenomenon was provided a few days later, in the context of hot, dry weather across the Prairies, and deadly flooding in Texas and Oklahoma – both the result of a ‘blocked’ jet stream. In fact, since the beginning of May, the jet stream, which normally carries weather systems from west to east, was blocked and splitting the stream in two, with extraordinarily warm air pushed north. Atmospheric blocking leads to a stagnation of weather patterns, and since the same pattern may repeat itself for several days or even weeks, the above normal temperatures lasted for an extended period in the far north.

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Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Whether or not this was another bit of evidence of climate change, the repercussions are significant with another serious wildfire season expected in the NWT and lower water levels in many the rivers, which is impacting hydro power generation, river transportation, and water quality.

Fall 2015

| WESTERN CANADA WATER | 63

A Climate of

CHANGE

A millennium perspective on the California drought Ken Johnson, Stantec

California is a state with the population and economic power of an independent nation, with the 10th largest economy in the world, and 3 million more people than Canada. The economy is massive with Silicon Valley, Hollywood and millions of hectares of farmland. However, this wonderland of glamour, technology and climate that has been developed over the past 165 years (more or less) in a semi-arid region that has clearly demonstrated a propensity for drought.

The current drought should therefore not come as a surprise because according to recent history, there have been drought conditions in the 1920s, the 30s, the 40s, the 70s, the 80s and the 90s. The 1987 to 1992 drought lasted six years, when statewide reservoir storage hovered around 60 percent. The worst drought was in 1976 - 77, when low rainfall sent the state scrambling, and runoff was just 20 percent of normal.

The modern history of California droughts is nothing compared to the last millennium. Through studies of tree rings, sediment and other natural evidence, researchers have documented multiple droughts that lasted 10 or 20 years in a row. There are also two severe mega droughts that make the Dust Bowl of the 1930s look tame. The first was a 240-year-long drought that started in 850, and 50 years after that another mega drought that stretched at least 180 years, from 1140 to 1320 CE. Based upon this history it is probably fair to say that, sadly, California is paying the price for gross water under-management over the past century and a half.

The cast of characters to this under-management is many, including farmers who have contributed through poor irrigation practices such as water-wasting open trenches. Homeowners have contributed to the shortage because many of their houses lack water meters, and the yards have lush lawns and big pools. Engineers and planners have contributed to the shortage because of lack of a foresight in spite of the overwhelming evidence of the full scope of the problem. However, the ultimate responsibility belongs to the California politicians for maintaining a short term perspective on a long term problem.

The current measures to meet the state governor’s executive order for a 25 percent statewide reduction in urban water use may be too little too late. A prominent and knowledgeable hydrologist with NASA has been monitoring total water storage (surface water and ground) in California since 2002, when satellite based monitoring began. He has noted a steady decline in water storage.

This individual has tried to make a case to anyone who will listen, and his rather blunt conclusion was that “we’re screwed.” These harsh words were offered as part of a commentary on a very good documentary entitled “Last Call at the Oasis.”

Of course, given the immense scale of the resources that can be brought to bear by the State of California and the 72 | WESTERN CANADA WATER | Fall 2015

A large residential “oasis” near Palm Springs incorporating numerous golf courses, is contrasted to the dry and barren natural landscape next door.

United States of America, California will probably continue to flourish. However, there is a new chapter that is just beginning.

How it will unfold will be interesting, but water use and water management practices in the Golden State are probably going to change forever.

One of the numerous practices in California that is just plain silly is that water meters have still not been installed in each and every household. Although water meters have been in use in California for 70 years, there are still approximately 250,000 households without meters. Average water use in the state (not including agriculture) is 740 litres per capita per day (L/c.d) (200 US gallons per capita per day), which does not come as a surprise. However, Palm Springs is “over the top” with water use at 2800 L/c.d (740 USg/c.d) to satisfy the demand of all 125 golf courses. The lowest reported water use of 290 L/c.d (76 USg/c.d) is in the Westborough Water District of South San Francisco.

With the surface water crisis, groundwater pumping is increasing exponentially, and there are growing concerns that this virtually unregulated draining of California’s aquifers could have major consequences within the next couple of years. It is estimated that California’s aquifers could be completely depleted in 60 years, and some wells are already starting to run dry. In some areas of the large Central Valley agricultural region, which is east of San Francisco, the land is sinking by 30 centimetres or more per year.

Some of the current thinking is that the state should build dozens of desalination plants and construct new pipelines from CLICK HERE TO RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

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the north, which would cost billions of dollars. In fact, there are numeous existing desalination plants around the state that were under construction during previous droughts, and which were subsequently mothballed. However, these potential solutions are applying the prevailing “engineering” thinking of the past.

California water law was built around preserving the water rights of those who staked claims to waterways more than a century ago, or have property that abuts the rivers and streams. Thousands of people, water districts and entities with claims dating before 1914 have long enjoyed nearly guaranteed access to water.

Modern thinking about water shortages considers the problem from a watershed management perspective, with engagement of the full landscape (surface and subsurface) for improvements. This approach makes use of the “natural infrastructure” and applies action such as positive incentives for agricultural producers to implement better land use practices. To date, the State of California has had limited success associated with the watershed approach, resorting to imposing mandatory cutbacks by individuals on water use, which ultimately provide only a “drop in the bucket” toward a solution.

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Fall 2015

| WESTERN CANADA WATER | 73

A Climate of

CHANGE

Drought in the far north Ken Johnson, Stantec

Drought is a term that does not seem to be appropriate for the far north of Canada because of its seemly endless winters with snow, ice and perpetual cold. In fact, however, the north has the characteristics of a desert, with the average precipitation in Yellowknife being 250 mm per year, which officially puts it on the cusp of being a desert. What is unique about the Canadian north is that the climate makes the region a frozen desert.

A singular fact that has highlighted the extent of the northern drought is that the water level in Great Slave Lake is 20 cm (centimetres) below the normal average. This is a drop of 10 cm from the low water levels recorded in 2014. A full appreciation of the water loss from the lake is gained from knowing that Great Slave Lake is the 10 th largest lake in the world with an area of 27,200 km2 (square kilometres). A 10 cm loss of water depth represents 2.7 billion cubic metres of water, which is about 130 days of average flow in the North Saskatchewan River.

The drought however, in not entirely northern in its origin because water levels in Great Slave Lake and, subsequently, the Mackenzie River, are influenced mainly by snowfall and rain in the Peace River basin in northern B.C. and Alberta. The 2015 snowpack was about 50 per cent below normal, and it will likely take several years of above average precipitation for water levels to return to average.

In the economic picture, the northern drought is impacting transportation and energy, with the low water levels affecting the barge traffic along the Mackenzie River. Barges provide a lifeline for many communities, facilitating cheap transportation of construction materials and fuel. Last year, the Northern Transportation Company had to cancel some of its barges to northern communities because of low water levels. A shipment of equipment set for Fort Good Hope had to be brought in five months later on the winter road.

The energy impact is associated with power generation in the southern NWT. Ninety five percent of electricity in the southern NWT is normally generated by hydro, and 5 percent generated by diesel. Over the past year this ratio has changed to 70 percent hydro and 30 percent diesel, with a cost implication of about $20 million, which would be passed on to the consumers. Fortunately, the Government of the Northwest Territories jumped in with a one-time subsidy to ease the financial burden.

From an environmental perspective, the 2014 wildfire season in the Northwest Territories was reputed to be the worst in at least three decades. By early July, there had been over 120 fires reported in the territory, and by mid July the total had reached 160 fires. The smoke generated by the fires combined with a rain storm created some apocalyptic looking conditions in Yellowknife at the end of July, with darkness and coloured lightning. Days later an air quality advisory was issued because of the smoke, as the Air Quality Health Index reached 10 out of 10, 74 | WESTERN CANADA WATER | Fall 2015

Hydro power facility on the Snare River system in the NWT

Smoke in Yellowknife on June 30, 2015

Scenic Yellowknife waterfront without smoke

The smoke was also blown south into the provinces.

Environment Canada declared air quality advisories in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Reportedly the smoke reached Bismarck, North Dakota, some 2000 km away.

Financially, the wildfires cost a total of $55 million, which was eight times the firefighting budget for the year.

Lower water levels in the Yellowknife River, which supplies the City of Yellowknife, contributed in part to the City’s record 32 day boil water advisory that ended in June. The City’s new water treatment facility was fortuitously commissioned in June, bringing the boil water advisory to an end (see article on “Water Treatment on the Rocks” in the Spring Issue of WCW Magazine).

While the NWT drought conditions are not on the same scale as California (see article this issue), the impacts are considerable on a number of fronts, and these impacts are being repeated in 2015.

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