CEC vs French vs PNP: which Express Entry route actually got invitations in 2026 A month-by-month look at IRCC's rounds data through October 28, 2026, and what it means if you only qualify for one route If you are in the Express Entry pool, the question that matters is not "what was the last cut-off" but "which kind of round can I actually be invited in, and how often does that kind of round happen?" There has not been a general, all-program round since April 23, 2024, so in 2026 every invitation went out through one of three doors: a Canadian Experience Class (CEC) round, a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) round, or a category-based round such as French-language proficiency. I went through every 2026 round in IRCC's published rounds of invitations data (65 rounds, January 5 to October 28, 2026) and grouped them by route. All numbers below come from that data. Rules are taken from IRCC's pages on canada.ca, linked at the end.
The headline split Route
Rounds in 2026
Invitations
Share of all 2026 invitations
Average invitations per round
CRS cut-off range
French-language proficiency
12
60,500
40.5%
5,042
382 to 435
Canadian Experience Class
18
57,750
38.7%
3,208
507 to 523
Other categories (healthcare, trades, transport, physicians, senior managers, military)
14
20,345
13.6%
1,453
169 to 477
Provincial Nominee Program
21
10,814
7.2%
515
697 to 805
All rounds
65
149,409
100%
Two routes, French and CEC, took almost 80% of all invitations this year. PNP ran the most rounds (21) but issued the fewest invitations, because each PNP round is small.
How 2026 compares with 2025 2025 is a full calendar year in the data (last round December 17, 2025). 2026 only runs to October 28, and it is already ahead on every route except PNP. Route
2025 invitations (full year)
2026 invitations (to Oct 28)
2025 cut-off range
2026 cut-off range
French-language proficiency
48,000 (9 rounds)
60,500 (12 rounds)
379 to 481
382 to 435
Canadian Experience Class
35,850 (15 rounds)
57,750 (18 rounds)
515 to 547
507 to 523
Other categories
19,250 (10 rounds)
20,345 (14 rounds)
462 to 510
169 to 477
Route
2025 invitations (full year)
2026 invitations (to Oct 28)
2025 cut-off range
2026 cut-off range
Provincial Nominee Program
10,898 (24 rounds)
10,814 (21 rounds)
667 to 855
697 to 805
Total
113,998
149,409
CEC is the clearest change. Its 2026 cut-offs (507 to 523) sit lower and in a much tighter band than in 2025 (515 to 547), and CEC has already invited 21,900 more people than in all of 2025.
Month by month Invitations issued per month in 2026: Month
CEC
French
PNP
Other categories
Total
January
14,000
0
1,255
0
15,255
February
6,000
8,500
702
4,391
19,593
March
10,250
9,500
982
250
20,982
April
4,000
8,000
797
3,000
15,797
May
3,000
4,500
714
0
8,214
June
4,000
0
955
4,271
9,226
July
4,000
10,000
1,045
504
15,549
August
4,000
10,000
1,511
300
15,811
September
6,000
0
1,309
3,979
11,288
October (to the 28th)
2,500
10,000
1,544
3,650
17,694
A few things stand out: There was no French round in January, June or September. French is the biggest route by volume, but it is not monthly. If you are counting on it, expect gaps. CEC was front-loaded. January to March gave 30,250 CEC invitations, more than half of the year's CEC total. From April on, CEC rounds were mostly 2,000 to 4,000 invitations. May and June were the quietest months (8,214 and 9,226 invitations).
CEC: smaller rounds, higher cut-offs All 18 CEC rounds in 2026: Date
Round
Invitations
Cut-off
Jan 7
390
8,000
511
Jan 21
392
6,000
509
Feb 17
396
6,000
508
Mar 3
400
4,000
508
Mar 17
404
4,000
507
Date
Round
Invitations
Cut-off
Mar 31
407
2,250
509
Apr 14
410
2,000
515
Apr 28
413
2,000
514
May 27
417
3,000
518
Jun 23
420
4,000
516
Jul 7
424
2,000
517
Jul 21
428
2,000
516
Aug 5
432
3,000
516
Aug 18
436
1,000
523
Sep 1
439
2,000
521
Sep 15
443
2,000
519
Sep 29
446
2,000
518
Oct 15
449
2,500
519
The pattern is simple: when IRCC invited 4,000 or more, the cut-off was 507 to 516. The year's highest cut-off (523) came with its smallest round (1,000 invitations, August 18). Since April, no CEC round has closed below 514. If your score is around 510, the early-2026 rounds would have reached you and the later ones would not.
French: big rounds, the lowest regular cut-offs The 12 French rounds closed between 382 (August 19) and 435 (October 16), with a median of 400. Since July, every French round has been exactly 5,000 invitations. To be eligible, IRCC requires French test results of at least NCLC 7 in all four abilities (speaking, listening, reading and writing). That 7-in-all-four rule is the whole game for this route. A score of 421 would not have reached any CEC round this year (the lowest closed at 507), but it was above the cut-off in 11 of the 12 French rounds.
PNP: you need the nomination first PNP rounds only invite candidates who already hold a provincial or territorial nomination, which adds 600 CRS points. With 2026 cut-offs of 697 to 805, the lowest-ranked person invited in each round had between 97 and 205 points before the nomination was added. So the hard part of this route is not the CRS score, it is getting a province to nominate you. PNP rounds have been getting bigger lately. The last three (September 28, October 13 and October 26) invited 733, 752 and 792 people, compared with 264 to 423 per round in February and March.
The other categories Healthcare and social services: 3 rounds, 11,500 invitations, cut-offs 467 to 475. Trades: 2 rounds, 6,500 invitations, cut-offs 476 and 477.
Physicians with Canadian work experience: 3 rounds, 891 invitations, cut-offs 169 to 223, the lowest in the system. Senior managers with Canadian work experience: 3 rounds, 1,000 invitations, cut-offs 389 to 429. Transport: 2 rounds, 450 invitations, cut-offs 470 and 477. Skilled military recruits: 1 round, 4 invitations, cut-off 368. STEM is still on IRCC's list of current categories, but the last STEM round in the data was on April 11, 2024. Education occupations had two rounds in 2025 and none in 2026. Being eligible for a category does not mean IRCC will run a round for it.
What changes on November 3, 2026 IRCC says that from November 3, 2026 it will award new points for Canadian work experience or a qualifying job offer in a highwage occupation, and remove the LMIA requirement for qualifying job offers. A job offer in a high-wage occupation can earn 50, 70 or 100 points, and the new labour market integration factor is capped at 150 points (140 with an accompanying spouse or partner). IRCC will recalculate every profile, which can take up to two weeks, and will pause rounds while it does. That matters for this comparison because the CEC numbers above were set under the old rules. Candidates with high-wage Canadian work experience could gain up to 70 points, which could push up the scores competing in CEC rounds. Nobody knows yet how the cut-offs will settle, so treat the 2026 ranges as history, not a forecast. I track what the data does and does not support on the next Express Entry draw prediction page, and every category round of the year is broken down on the 2026 category-based draws page.
So which route is "best"? The one you are eligible for, honestly. The data says: 1. If you can reach NCLC 7 in all four French abilities, the French route has invited the most people this year at the lowest regular cut-offs. 2. If you are CEC-only, you have been competing at 514 or above since April. 3. If your score is well below both, a provincial nomination is the route that changes the maths, because 600 points outweighs any other single factor.
Sources IRCC, Express Entry rounds of invitations (data for all rounds): https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugeescitizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/rounds-invitations.html IRCC, Category-based selection (current categories and French eligibility): https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugeescitizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/rounds-invitations/category-based-selection.html IRCC, CRS criteria (600 points for a nomination, November 3 recalculation and pause): https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/check-score/crscriteria.html IRCC, Changes to Express Entry for high-wage occupations (October 2026 backgrounder): https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2026/10/changes-to-express-entry-for-high-wageoccupations.html Cleaned CSV of every round since 2015: https://github.com/izafar0999-gitup/canada-express-entry-draws
By Zafar Iqbal. crscalcu.ca is independent and not affiliated with IRCC. Always confirm rules on canada.ca before you act.
Published by crscalcu.ca: https://crscalcu.ca/