Commodity Report Winter 2023

WINTER 2023

Commodity Report

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

Contents

2

Outlook

3

Inflation

4

Exchange Rates

5

Energy

5

Shipping

6

Fuel

6

Key Commodity Pricing

7

Dairy

8

Meat & Poultry

10

Fish

12

Fruit & Vegetables

14

Grocery

15

Drinks

19

Non Food

20

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

Why food prices are still rising despite UK inflation falling

Outlook In the last quarter we have

subsequently will increase fuel and

seen that price increases have

energy costs. The Ukraine war is

slowed

foodservice

still creating uncertainty on some

However,

commodities, not to mention the

they are still increasing on the

potential for the Israel/Gaza conflict

previous

actually

becoming a regional or world conflict

reducing in cost. The rate of

which, could bring a whole new cycle

easing has been faster in retail,

of issues for the food and energy

as month-on-month inflation in

markets.

and

Signs Middle East tensions easing offset higher demand forecasts

in

both

supermarkets. year,

not

supermarkets, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index, stood at just 0.3% in August—compared to 0.8% in the Foodservice Price Index.

Bank of England expected to hold interest rates again after joblessness rise

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

The UK jobless rates have increased by 0.5% to 4.3% on the latest numbers, and wage growth increased to 7.8% (excluding bonuses). If the unemployment

rate

remains

the

The general outlook is hard to predict,

same or drops down under the 4.5%

climate issues are causing challenges

alongside wage growth continuing

in almost every crop growing region,

upwards, a further 0.25% increase is

Avian Flu and Swine Fever is still

expected to the current 5.25% BOE

being found in all the major world

base rate to be announced for early

production regions and could cause

2024.

issues if not controlled. The OPAC oil producing countries are potentially cutting their output again which

3

Inflation As milk, cheese and egg prices are falling…petrol prices are rising

FOOD INFLATION SHOPPING BASKET Ave £ Aug 23

Ave £ 2022

Annual Growth

Orange (each)

£0.43

£0.41

+5%

Frozen fish fingers (pack of 8-12)

£2.84

£2.70

+5%

Semi skimmed milk (2 pints)

£1.24

£1.19

+4%

Multipack crisps

£1.79

£1.56

+14%

Bag of sweets (chocolate)

£1.47

£1.32

+12%

Butter (250g)

£2.23

£2.16

+3%

Wholemeal sliced bread (750-800g)

£1.35

£1.21

+11%

Dry spaghetti/pasta (500g)

£0.95

£0.98

-4%

Baked beans (400-425g)

£1.05

£0.89

+18%

Baking potatoes (per kg)

£0.87

£0.80

+9%

Tomatoes (per kg)

£3.09

£2.89

+7%

Carrots (per kg)

£0.67

£0.60

+12%

Eggs (per dozen)

£3.31

£2.71

+22%

you add the further 6.7% increase this year to the £1.111 and your £1 tin of

Cheddar cheese (per kg)

£9.30

£8.01

+16%

beans is now actually costing £1.185 so an actual compounded increase of

Plain biscuits (200-300g)

£1.30

£1.11

+18%

Food prices fell by 0.1% between August and September to 12.1%, led by dairy produce and soft drinks. The only food category that went up was fish, led by frozen prawns. In contrast, drivers were hit at the pumps again as global oil prices rose by over 5p a litre and still climbing.

UK Inflation Source: Office for National Statistics, ONS Inflation is falling so why are prices still going up?

Prices are still rising quite sharply compared to a year ago, just at a slower rate than they have been. To give a basic example, if a tin of beans was £1 in 2021 and increased by 11.1% it would have been £1.111 at this point in 2022, then

18.5% over the last 2 years not 6.7% from this year alone, so unless we see a negative inflation figure the price will continue to increase.

4

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

Exchange Rates

Energy Energy Price Cap fell for a second quarter in a row in October 2023 This brings the price cap to the lowest level since October 2021, reflecting in the further falls in wholesale energy pricing, however the annual inflation rate for gas remained at 1.7% in September 2023,

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate rose by over a percent to retake 1.23 and further improve its short-term setup following the release of U.S. labour market statistics that disappointed against expectations.

according to the Office for National Statistics.

This was largely due to the the lowering

The slowing labour market reinforces market expectations that the Federal Reserve

of the Office of Gas and Electricity

won’t raise interest rates again and that the next move will be a rate cut. This helps

Markets (Ofgem) price cap in during that

bring down U.S. bond yields which represents an easing in financial conditions,

month.

which is supportive of equity markets and risk-on currencies.

The latest forecasts are showing there will be a slight increase to the Price Cap in Q1 2024, but with pricing looking to stabilise in Q4, but this is only a best guess at the present time.

Pound-Euro rose above 1.15 and, in doing so, cemented a base at 1.1460 (the exchange rate has not closed below here since May, making it a key level for Sterling to defend if it wants to avoid a more substantial selloff).

In the medium term, we’re unlikely to see prices return to the levels we saw before the energy crisis

The UK economy grew 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter and 0.6% yearon-year. All signs point to a slowdown from these levels.

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

5

Shipping

Fuel WHY ARE PETROL AND DIESEL PRICES RISING AGAIN? Diesel prices rose by more than 8p a litre to 163p in September, the fifth biggest monthly rise since 2000, and on top of another 8p rise the previous month.

Petrol prices rose by 4.5p a litre to 152p, the fourth consecutive monthly increase

WORLD CONTAINER INDEX The latest Drewry WCI composite index of $1,504 per 40-foot container is now 6% more than average 2019 (pre-pandemic) rates of $1,420.

The current composite index of $1,504 has dropped by 46% when compared with the same week last year. The average composite index for the year-to-date is $1,700 per 40ft container,

The increases come after the extension of global oil production cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia, designed to bolster prices, pushed up oil prices to almost $100 (£82.89) a barrel in September, feeding through to prices at the pump. Brent crude, the oil price benchmark, rose to a 10-month high last month of almost $98 a barrel, up from $72 a barrel at its lowest point in June. Currently, prices are at $81.61 (£66.62) a barrel.

Latest unleaded petrol prices

Latest diesel prices

UK average

UK average

154.53p

161.40p

should fall 31/10/2023

which is $976 lower than the 10-year average

should fall 31/10/2023

rates of $2,676 (which was inflated by the

Supermarket average

151.72p

Supermarket average

159.24p

exceptional 2020-22 Covid period).

Motorway average

178.56p

Motorway average

184.65p

Source: RAC Fuel Watch

6

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

Key Commodity Pricing

prices down

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

stable

prices up

mixed dependent on product area

7

Dairy MILK Latest reports suggest that milk prices are very stable, at the moment. Some commodity markets are showing early signs of an increase, however, usually there is always some lag between that happening and processors choosing to increase the price paid to their farmers, to avoid moving too early.

In terms of milk supply, according to some processors, supplies have stabilised and are even starting to slow down with suggestions that supplies are running around 3% behind this time last year.

Milk prices static despite uplift in wholesale demand

BUTTER & CREAM Prices have started to increase on butter, with a strong 10% + price rises in recent weeks. The driver for this, is cream prices, which have increased in Europe, due to low milk volumes in Germany. Currently producers are favouring making cream rather than butter due to the higher returns. This is forcing butter prices to rise in order to balance things out.

In addition, some producers are now starting to hold back stocks in expectation that it could be worth more in the coming weeks and months to come.

Source: AHDB

8

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

CHEDDAR

EGGS

Currently, of all dairy items, Cheddar is the one which is slowest moving. That said, young European cheeses such as Gouda and Edam are moving upwards at some pace, so it remains to be seen perhaps when, rather than if, Cheddar does the same. Manufacturers are nervous about quoting long periods due to the uncertainty.

Egg prices remain high, compared to previous years and up 40% in the last 12 months alone. The commitment by major supermarkets to move to Free Range Eggs only by 2025 has put real pressure onto the industry and has forced a race against time for factories and farms to gear up to this style of production.

MOZZARELLA Mozzarella prices have also stabled, in line with other young cheeses. A lack of availability in the market, plus falling milk volumes in various Mozzarella producing countries, has led to an uptick in prices in recent weeks.

HALLOUMI Halloumi prices are dropping on the back of positive milk output for goats and cows in Cyprus.

These prices will drop by 5% over the coming months, and the hope is further still as we enter the new year.

The only negative is the effect of the weakening Sterling versus the Euro.

The various input costs (feed and energy mainly) which rose during the early stages of the Ukraine war led to higher prices which seemingly are yet to come down. There have long been conversations about whether eggs are effective ‘under-priced’ with retailers in particular coming under pressure about whether fair prices are paid to farmers.

In the industry, processors are talking of thing slowly getting better around availability, and supermarket shelves would also back this up. That being said, the growth in free range farms is not without its challenges. Planning permission is often being knocked back due to allegations that the implementation of free-range farms can lead to water pollution. Experts say this is holding the sector back and leading to a position where adequate capacity may take longer than anticipated to reach.

GRANA PADANO Grana Padano is a cheese originating in the Po River Valley in northern Italy and is registered as a Protected Designation of Origin (PDO), since 1996. Due to its production process, Grana Padano is naturally-lactosefree.

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

Prices on Grana Padano have dropped around 6% this year €9.29 down to €8.68 but, still nowhere near the 2021 prices of €7.00.

9

Meat & Poultry PORK

CHICKEN Throughout 2023, global poultry market growth has expected to be slow, reaching only 1%, according to a recent report. But global poultry markets are well positioned to gradually improve in Q4 2023 and early 2024, although the level will depend on how well-balanced they are.

Pork production is declining in all EU countries while less competitive EU prices hamper exports. The biggest reductions were recorded in Denmark. As feed prices are decreasing and margins remain positive, carcass weights are expected to increase in the second half of the year.

Less competitive EU pork prices make exports to the global market a real challenge. In the first half of 2023, EU exports recorded a decline of -20%. Pork production in China is recovering and so less imports are needed.

10

After a period of slow poultry consumption growth, due to a weak global economy and rising prices resulting from cost increases, global demand has room for some recovery, driven mainly by lower feed costs and, therefore, lower chicken prices. Markets will remain highly price-driven, but poultry should be able to benefit from its relatively competitive pricing in many markets compared to other proteins like beef, pork, and alternative proteins.

FRESH & FROZEN Due to the continued avian flu epidemic in South Africa, this has translated to a shortage in egg and poultry supply with several retailers alerting customers, shelves could soon be empty.

According to the South African Poultry Association (SAPA), the egg supply situation has started to ease from October.

South Africa has been hit by the third cycle of avian flu, plus a new strain H7N6 was discovered in June 2023. From the end of May to 19 September, South Africa lost between 15% and 20% of the national chicken population, with four million chickens destroyed amid the South African avian flu epidemic.

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

TURKEY: FRESH VS FROZEN

CHRISTMAS 2022

Both fresh and frozen turkey saw an overall decline in volume, with whole birds driving this across both chiller and freezer. Smaller crowns and joints increased volume when compared to 2021 but were down on 2019 volumes.

53% OF BRITS SPENT LESS IN THE RUN UP TO CHRISTMAS 2022

Price hikes of at least 10% were seen across 13 of the 21 frozen whole turkey or turkey crown lines on sale this week in the traditional big four, plus Aldi, Lidl and Waitrose, and taking into account this time last year, found analysis of Assosia data by The Grocer.

SIGNIFICANT MARKET GROWTH DUE TO INFLATION AS HOUSEHOLDS SCALED BACK Source: Kantar

56% OF UK SHOPPERS CHOSE TURKEY AS PART OF CHRISTMAS CELEBRATIONS IN 2022, DOWN FROM 60% IN 2021

Frozen turkeys set to be even pricier for Christmas 2023 Source: IGD

Chicken is the main protein to benefit over time, with consumers generally seeing this protein as more versatile, and therefore likely to be used across a range of meal occasions in the run-up to Christmas.

PORK ROASTING

GAMMON

BEEF ROASTING

LAMB ROASTING

WHOLE CHICKEN

WHOLE TURKEY TURKEY CROWN/JOINTS

WHOLE FISH

vs Christmas 2021

-3.4%

-0.4%

+2.2%

+10%

+11.9%

-13.2%

+4.8%

-16.3%

vs Christmas 2019

+8.4%

-3.9%

-3.7%

+13.6%

+12.9%

-33.1%

-9.4%

-28.6%

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

Source: Kantar, AHDB

Whilst Turkey remains a staple, is this tradition losing relevance over time?

The average year-on-year SKU price hike was 9.4%, while the average cost per kg was up by 12% to £7.51/kg.

CHRISTMAS 2022 meat volume change

AVERAGE SHOP INCREASED BY £5, TO REACH £78.55

11

Fish COD

SALMON

Russian caught Cod processed in China saw a very small decline in Q3, however pricing is still close to 26% more expensive than unprecedented low pricing from 2021. A recent article from, Undercurrent News, explains that Russian Exports are up by 11% by October 2023, which will be driving the slow decline in price as experts believe that consumers views on Russian caught fish is softening.

It is safe to say that Norwegian Salmon pricing has been erratic at best this year. This is mainly due to the uncertainty around the Norwegian salmon tax, however, the producers have been hit hard this year with Salmonid Rickettsial Septiceamia (SRS), decimating stocks, both of which ultimately drive the price increases.

Pricing is only 1% different to the same period last year, which shows the market is still unstable.

Despite the pricing of Norwegian Cod starting to fall last quarter, pricing for Q3 was up close to 47% versus Q2 2023. Experts believe that the demand outstripped supply whilst pricing was lower, which therefore has pushed up price. Pricing is still down around 6% Y-o-Y however, consumers seem to be pushing purchases into Cod whilst the pricing is on the decline again.

Pricing in Q4 naturally rises due to the increased demand around the festive season, however IntraFish reports that pricing has been stable for the last 2-3 weeks, leaving producers uncertain where the market will head next.

HADDOCK After a steady decline, Russian caught Haddock processed in China is starting to see a small increase in price as of September 2023. Trends predict that the decline is due to go through to early 2024.

This should not be confused with Russian caught Haddock, which is imported directly into the UK as frozen at sea fillets, which is subject to the 35% tariff imposed by the UK government and mainly supplied to fish & chip shops.

12

Russian export volumes up 11% as of October

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

Unfortunately, the Pound has fallen dramatically against the Dollar in recent months and, as tuna is traded primarily in Dollars, this means any base price reductions are not fully being realised once stock arrives into the UK.

TUNA

COLD WATER PRAWNS

Skipjack tuna prices are trending downwards at the moment. Catches in the Western Pacific are rising and therefore pressure is being put on the canneries and fishermen to reduce pricing. Other Oceans aren’t fairing quite as well but with the main price source being Bangkok, everybody is

Whilst there is still no Free Trade agreement in place between the UK & Greenland, the Government has increased the quota on the import of cold-water prawns.

looking to the Bangkok price to determine where pricing should be.

As predicted, pricing is on the rise for Q4, however without the increased tariff, experts say the increase could be around 30% higher. This along with many shortages, and across a seasonally important time, may have hampered the market and the future of imports. Whilst pricing is down around 30% Y-o-Y, pricing for Q4 looks set to be around 8% higher than Q3.

Government raises prawn quota following BFFF lobbying

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

13

Fruit & Vegetables AUTUMN AND WINTER CROPS We already know from previous reports that crops are lower this year, with prices increasing 20-40% in some product areas. The only saving grace for pricing has been the reduction on input costs for fertilisers and energy, which has helped reduce some of the overall cost increases caused by the poor harvests.

NORTHERN EUROPE

Continuous rainfalls throughout Spring Meant that crops were sown late

Which were exposed to extreme summer heat & drought conditions

As a result, caused a production loss on peas, green beans, carrots, cauliflower & spinach

SOUTHERN EUROPE

Extreme droughts during the Summer

14

As a result, caused much lower crops on

RASPBERRIES

POTATOES

In Morocco, Storm Bernard has played havoc with growers, with some growers forecasting crops of almost half of what they normally expect. This is causing a knock-on effect to growers around Europe increasing prices due to increased demand.

Potato prices have now started to stabilise after a long period of inflation which has led to significant higher chip prices year on year. As all major manufacturers agree prices with their farmers based on a contract basis, which is agreed well before the crop has been harvested, the stabilising of prices has mainly helped the free buy / open market and calmed the situation around potato prices.

APRICOTS 2023 has been a very difficult year for European growers.

In addition to the well-known storms, such as the floods in Italy, the flowers were hit by frost. This is mainly the case in Italy, France, Greece and Spain. The harvest was very weak this year and in order to get any good quality, producers are able to charge much higher costs than 2022. On average, prices have risen between 15%20% (£0.15/kg and £0.20/kg).

There does however remain a bit of a concern around quality of stocks, with some free buy potatoes being offloaded earlier due to concerns about their quality. If the free buy price remains low into early next year, what this could lead to is chip producers putting pressure on their farmers to potentially lower or certainly maintain the price for next year, perhaps feeling ‘farmers had the better of the situation this year.’

tomatoes, olives, capers & green pea

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

Grocery

ORANGE JUICE

DRIED FRUIT & NUTS Raisins & Sultanas The current raisin and sultana market price is up +50% year on year due to low crops and Turkey withholding stock. The overall expectation is this will drop over the coming quarter, but that depends on Turkey releasing stock at a reasonable price.

DRIED APRICOTS Apricot prices are still 70% higher than 12 months ago, this is on the back of the severe earthquake damage in Turkey in February, the damaged trees and infrastructure will take years to regrow and rebuild as such pricing will remain high for some time.

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

Orange Juice Prices continue to break record highs in October

15

WHEAT

CORNFLOUR Source: Euronext Live Markets

The market focus is increasingly turning to drought-tested crops in Argentina and Australia, as harvest approaches with potentially lower production figures.

Argentina wheat production is reduced by 300 thousand tonnes to 16.2 million mt in the 2023/24 season (USDA estimates 16.5 million mt), according to the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange.

Cornflour prices are still high but falling… slowly. Cornflour prices have dropped over the last quarter by 11%, but that is only a 4% drop year on year and still remains 50% higher than the average pricing for the last 10 years.

Pricing is expected to fall as we go into the back end of 2023 when new crops arrive, and we hopefully see a more settled energy market.

Australia is experiencing the biggest yearly decline in production estimates this year so far according to the USDA, down 38% year-on-year (y-o-y) at 24.5 million mt.

Market players are concerned that curtailed Argentinian and Australian crops could impact global trade flows starting in early winter.

Durum Wheat is the key commodity for making pasta

DURUM WHEAT Durum wheat prices, have shown an increase in pricing during the Summer before tailing off slightly in the Autumn.

The reasons are as follows: Canada is experiencing a low harvest, perhaps the smallest in the last ten years. This is having an obvious impact on the market. The low harvest numbers have seen impacted by droughts in key growing areas.

16

Italy has experienced falling durum wheat prices originally, but again this has changed given the situation in other countries and further reliance from Italian pasta makers to switch from Canadian into Italian. Many Italian producers also prefer to use Italian durum wheat as a selling point of ‘truly authentic Italian pasta.’

Concerns about the quality of durum wheat coming through being medium to low quality and also geopolitical tensions leading to Turkey and Russia exporting limited volumes.

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

RICE

Dry weather in Thailand India’s decision to restrict exports of non-basmati white rice The monthly Food Price Index, which measures international prices for a basket of food commodities, fell for the seventh time this year despite a nearly 10% surge in rice prices, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation.

Sourcing sufficient rice is getting much more difficult, and the industry is having to pay much higher prices. This will in turn cause price rises for many rice-based products in the UK. It is also likely to mean that some companies may decide to import rice of a lower quality. The potential for fraud is very high for rice now based on the supply issues.

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

SUGAR WEATHER IN EUROPE HAS AFFECTED Beet Crop

COCOA PRODUCTION FORECAST WEATHER IN BRAZIL & INDIA HAS AFFECTED Cane Crop

Sugar prices have risen rapidly over the past 12 months. The key drivers for this is that the beet crop in Europe has been affected by weather and the cane crop in Brazil and Indian have also been affected by weather conditions. This has led to the highest sugar prices in the last decade.

The situation moving forward very much depends on weather, with the El Niño weather phenomenon possibly leading to drier than usual conditions in other large exporters such as Thailand and India. 2023/2024 is expected to see a sugar deficit (i.e. demand outweighing supply) of 2 million tonnes. If the weather impacts this figure further there could be even more pressure in the market which would effectively be a ‘sellers’ market.’

It is becoming increasingly clear that an aging tree stock in Ghana and the debilitating long-term impact of Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV) in Ivory Coast have curbed production growth and may even be leading to a decline in trend production in both countries.

So, while weaker grindings growth in Q2 has a positive effect on the forward balance it is not nearly sufficient to eliminate the potential structural deficit we see developing in 2023/24 and 2024/25.

FARMER PRICES Expect to see significant increases in the farmer price of cocoa in both of the main West African producing countries for the 2023/24.

In the past, West African farmers have also responded to higher prices by increasing production through new plantings of cocoa mainly in forest areas.

17

EDIBLE OILS RAPESEED, SUNFLOWER, SOYA & PALM OIL Rapeseed, soya, sunflower and palm oil are all down year on year, following their excessive highs last year. It would be fair to call the situation ‘steady’ at the moment, with prices fluctuating in a relatively normal range.

A lack of oilseed from Ukraine caused a market spike, thankfully this has eased and increased availability of other oils such as palm has added further pressure into the overall mix. Palm oil is perhaps the main driver where stocks are high and demand is down, production continues to increase, and the Chinese market is adopting a wait and see approach to contracting.

Many of these oils are significant contributors to certain manufactured products such as mayonnaises and spreads.

Hopefully, this should provide some stability for caterers, still with prices changing regularly, but not necessarily the huge fluctuations seen in recent years.

18

OLIVE OIL Europe has almost run out of local olive oil supplies and is set for more shortages, after extreme weather damaged harvests for a second year. Extreme weather in other important growing regions including Greece, Italy and Portugal as well as Turkey and Morocco have added to the crisis.

Spain produce half of the world’s supply of olive oil, but wildfires and soaring summer temperatures are making the future of the industry increasingly uncertain

“Today, it is almost physically impossible to buy olive oil. It is sold out” Walter Zanre, CEO of Filippo Berio UK

Europe’s olive oil supply running out after drought – and the odd hailstorm, forcing producers to import from South America

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

Drinks COFFEE The world of coffee is facing a period of uncertainty. Extreme weather conditions from the end of August to late September have threatened the Arabica crop in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer.

Events in September, where Mintec’s Tropical Research Services conducted a field survey mid-September, brought to light the adverse impact of hot and dry weather conditions that followed unseasonal rains in late August, particularly in Brazil’s South of Minas region.

Despite the initial concerns, there is reason for optimism as the weather has improved recently, bringing relief to Arabica coffee producers Significant rains were recorded in late September in key coffeeproducing regions, including São Paulo, Cerrado Mineiro, and the South of Minas. These cumulative rains provided the necessary conditions for a second round.

All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.

19

Non Food PAPER & CARBOARD (PACKAGING) Prices have fallen slightly over the course of this year. Good quality recycled paper is difficult to find. For 2024, we expect to see a slight price reduction (-5% to -10%) but still far from the 2022 prices.

PLASTIC After several years of price increases, we have seen a slight price reduction this year on the back of demand decreasing rather than simply raw ingredients increasing, the availability of EHO (ethylene and vinyl alcohol) is still hindering pricing falling dramatically. Current prices are still far from the price of two years ago.

TINPLATE After the explosion of prices last year, we see a slight decline this year on tinplate and prices are expected to lower further in the first six months of 2024.

ALUMINIUM Although aluminium has come down slightly (2-5% in the last quarter), prices are expected to remain stable for the most part going forward. If the oil market remains high or goes any higher, we expect pricing to increase on the back of increased energy and transport pricing.

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All content correct at the time of publication, November 2023.