CPR Summer 2019 (XVIII, 2)

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW

ALSO INSIDE: Japanese Womenomics pg. 4 How Can Democrats Win in 2020? pg. 14 Cases for and against a Second Brexit Referendum pg. 26, 28

SUMMER 2019 Volume XVIII, No. 2

HEATED ARGUMENTS & COLD FEET—

CLIMATE CHANGE, CONFLICT, AND MIGRATION pg. 8

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Masthead & Editor’s Note Editor-in-Chief Isabelle Harris Publisher Celine Bacha Senior Editors Jake Tibbetts Alex Siegal Hannah Wyatt Benjamin Sachs Kinza Haq Helen Sayegh Henry Feldman Jodi Lessner Akshiti Vats Copy Editors Sonia Mahajan Grace Protasiewicz Aryeh Hajibay-Piranesi Mary Zaradich Graphics/Arts Editor Antara Agarwal Social Media Director Anthony Cosentino Tech and Marketing Kerem Tuncer

Op-Ed Eric Scheuch Staff Writers Raya Tarawneh Sophia Houdaigui Ayse Yucesan Aja Johnson Antara Agarwal Pallavi Sreedhar Jasleen Chaggar Ramsay Eyre Ellie Hansen Rachel Barkin Sarah DeSouza Feven Negussie Feature Anthony Cosentino Staff Writers Kristha Jenvaiyavasjamai Kristen Akey Maria Castillo Stella Cavedon Devyani Goel Janine Nassar Diana Valcarcel Soler Stephanie Choi Katherine Malus

Podcast Producers Kristen Akey Hannah Wyatt

Dear Reader, The cover article for this edition is a piece by Stella Cavedon about the global climate crisis.

It was important for us to frame the rest of this edition’s articles in the context of this crisis given its far-reaching impact.

In fact, a central challenge of facing the crisis is our inability to wrap our heads around its scale.

This problem is compounded by our propensity to focus on the countless other pressing issues unfolding around the world today.

As a magazine, we feel this pull as well. In these pages you will find articles about women’s economic progress in Japan and the battle over Brexit in Belfast.

But as you read this issue, I encourage you to think about how these stories contribute to a larger global narrative that is only just coming into focus. Though much remains uncertain about the future, one thing is certain: climate change will shape global politics for the rest of our lives.

—Belle Harris, Editor-in-Chief

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this magazine belong to their authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Columbia Political Review, of CIRCA, or of Columbia University.

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW 4: Womenomics: Japan’s Rocky Path to a “Society in Which Women Can Shine”

by Stephanie Choi 8: Heated Arguments and Cold Feet: Climate Change, Conflict, and Migration

by Stella Cavedon 11: Democrats’ Latino Outreach Needs Some Work

by Maria Castillo 14: How Can Democrats Win in 2020? Take a Page from the Abrams Playbook

by Eric Scheuch 16: Liberal Candidates’ Embrace of Traditional Family Values: Hypocritical, yet Necessary

by Rachel Barkin 19: Peace in the Horn: What Regional Peace Might Entail for Eritrea and Ethiopia

by Feven Negussie

Published by CIRCA

Spring 2019 Volume XVIII, No. 1

21: A Third Way? What Party Defections in the UK Mean for Brexit and Beyond

by Jasleen Chaggar 23: Street/Sraid: What the Battle for Dual-Language Street Signs in Belfast Means for Brexit

by Maeve Flaherty 26: The Case For a Second Brexit Referendum

By Ayse Yucesan 28: The Case Against a Second Brexit Referendum

By Jasleen Chaggar 30: The Arab Storyteller: Film and Censorship in the Middle East

By Raya Tarawneh 32: Who’s Got the Power?

By Celine Bacha

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W O M E N O M I C S : J A PA N ’ S R O C K Y PAT H TO A “ S O C I E T Y I N W H I C H WOMEN CAN SHINE” Stephanie Choi In fall 2018, top officials of Tokyo Medical University bowed their heads in front of the Japanese public to apologize for its long-held systematic exclusion of women from its institution. In doing so, they admitted to rigging entrance exam results for more than a decade since 2006 by boosting scores for male applicants while slashing them down for females “to restrict the number of female students and ensure more men became doctors,” and in reaction to the prospect of women cutting their careers short after having children.

Studies have also revealed that the proportion of female doctors who passed the national medical exam has plateaued around 30% for the last 20 years, further suggesting that such systematic discrimination against women based on their sex is a widespread practice within the entire medical field in Japan, and not a phenomenon unique to Tokyo Medical University.

This scandal revealed the institutional sexism still deeply rooted within all corners of Japanese society, and served as a 4

reality check for the progress of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Womenomics” policies that he has sought to champion ever since he took office in 2012. As it can be surmised from its name, Womenomics is a term coined to refer to a broad set of policies aimed at women’s economic advancement in Japan, as a subset of a group of economic policies called “Abenomics” aimed at the improvement of the overall Japanese economy – an ambitious goal of 15% GDP growth in Japan.

In his address to the Sixty-Eighth Session of the UN General Assembly in 2013, Prime Minister Abe explained Womenomics as a policy aimed at promoting “the advance of women in society” for “higher economic growth in Japan.” Thus, although there is an overarching theme of improving women’s place in society, the utmost priority for the government in implementing Womenomics policies is to address the severe shrinkage of its labor market that has resulted from the country’s declining birthrates and rapidly aging population, rather than fostering greater gender equality.

So is Womenomics working?

Somewhat – but it depends on how you define success. In terms

of pure numbers, the rate of employment for females has risen to 49.8% by 2017, the highest it has ever been in the country’s history.

In making this possible, the government implemented various policies to encourage women to enter the workforce. One principle policy was the vast expansion of public childcare centers aimed at easing women’s burden of caring for their children and working at the same time. The government has sought to incorporate men into such efforts as well, encouraging them to take advantage of the country’s paternity leave policy that had been severely underutilized since its establishment in 1991– an average of 30.4 fully paid weeks of leave allotted for those earning an average wage, which is the highest out of any other country in the world. Among various other policies, it had also set an ambitious goal of reaching a 30% threshold for women in leadership and management positions by 2020 to achieve proper representation of women in the workplace.

However, upon a closer look, Womenomics falls far short of addressing the gender inequality entrenched deep within the society, thereby continuing to discourage

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW // SUMMER 2019 // 05 women who desire to enter the workforce. Even after various reforms, Japan was ranked 110 out of 149 countries surveyed in the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report in 2018, placing last out of all G7 countries.

One cause of such low ranking is the fact that, despite the increased proportion of working females, more than half of them are part-time, contract-based workers who receive low pay, little substantial responsibilities, and consequently a lack of opportunities to advance themselves further in their careers. Japan also still remains the country with the third-highest gender wage gap out of all OECD countries at 24.5%, well above the OECD

average of 13.8% – a blatant indication that women still receive significantly less pay than men for similar work.

Further causes of this gap stem from the limited effects of the aforementioned reforms attempted by the government to encourage increased female participation in the workforce. For one, despite the increased number of public childcare centers, accessibility remains difficult, with tens of thousands of children still on waitlists that grow exponentially every year, hindering many mothers from returning to work.

In terms of paternity leave, the percentage of eligible men taking paternity leave has stagnated at a mere 2-3%, falling far short

of the government’s initial goal of reaching 13% by 2020. Furthermore, as there are no penalties or substantive incentives attached to the Japanese government’s mere encouragement of increased inclusion of females into leadership positions, the current figures lag far behind the government’s initial goal at 12.4% overall, and an even lower rate of 3.7% in the private sector specifically, according to WEF’s report in 2018. As a glaring example, there is only 1 female in Prime Minister Abe’s newest 19-member cabinet– a somber, yet realistic reflection of the continued lack of female representation in leadership positions, which has led the government to cut down its target to

En.kremlin.ru

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06 // SUMMER 2019 // COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW 7% women in senior government employment gap would especial- equality spectrum– and the efpositions and 15% for private ex- ly boost corporate performance, fect greater gender employment ecutive roles, compared to their as Japanese corporations with a equality has had in their econominitial goal of reaching 30%. greater proportion of females in ic growth. According to an OECD Despite these drawbacks, senior management have consis- report by the Nordic Council of it should be acknowledged that tently shown higher performance Ministers, Nordic countries such Womenomics policies have seen rates. as Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, some success in boosting the Therefore, if the Japanese and Norway have achieved a reeconomy – the government’s government wants to ensure markable increase in their workmain objective – as the country even further economic growth, ing-age (15-64) female employhas indeed seen a steady rise in it should invest more efforts on ment rate since the mid-1960s, as GDP since the beginning of Prime addressing the underlying gen- high as Sweden’s jump of almost Minister Abe’s term in 2012. Look- der inequality prevalent within 30 percentage points in the last ing to the future, an increase in the Japanese society, thus ensur- 50 years. This increase in female not only quantity, but also quali- ing that more women feel suffi- employment has made a substanty, of women’s participation in the ciently supported to participate tial contribution to the economic workforce will be the central key in the workforce. Not only would growth of Nordic countries in the to even greatlast 50 years, er economwith increasic growth in “If the Japanese government wants to ensure even further es in womJapan. Jesper en’s emeconomic growth, it should invest more efforts on adKoll, head of ployment WisdomTree dressing the underlying gender inequality prevalent within accounting Japan and a for around Japanese society...” p ro m i n e n t 0.25-0.40 economic percentage expert, specifically stresses the increased structural support help points, or roughly 10-20%, of the importance of the inclusion of boost the economy, but there is annual GDP per capita growth women into the workforce in the a high chance that such improve- rate. The report attributes the country’s economic growth so far, ments would also address the cause behind such success as the citing that Japan’s current growth fundamental problem that Wom- so-called “Nordic approach” that rate of 1.5 to 2 percent would enomics was first implemented to focuses on work friendliness and have been cut down to around 1 solve–severe labor shortage– as promotion of a “dual earner-duto 1.5 percent if it weren’t for im- more women themselves enter al career” family model, which proved women’s participation in the workforce and the increased “encourages continuous fullthe workforce. Kathy Matsui, Vice overall family income and im- time employment for all men and Chair of Goldman Sachs Japan proved childcare services lead to women (emphasis added)” with who first coined the term Wom- increased birth rates, remediating “the state expected to provide enomics in 1999, furthers Koll’s the country’s rapid population them with the services and suppoint through her 2014 report decline. ports necessary to do so.” pushing for even greater reforms Implementation of further Thus, further improvements aimed at closing the gender em- policies to achieve greater gen- in gender employment equality ployment gap, which she has pro- der employment equality be- in Japan could come in the form jected would boost Japan’s GDP comes even more appealing of expanding policies that have by nearly 13%. Other economists once we take a look at the case already been enacted to ensure rally behind a similar rationale by of Nordic countries– which stand greater work friendliness, such arguing that closing the gender on the other end of the gender as further expansion of childcare 6

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW // SUMMER 2019 // 07 facilities that can accommodate the rapidly growing demand from mothers returning to work, as well as more stringent policies that mandate both the public and private sectors to reach a certain percentage of female representation in leadership positions. It would also be important to pass legislation aimed at closing the gender gap prevalent in areas such as wages and social benefits to ensure that all workers are treated fairly regardless of gender. For instance, the current Japanese spousal tax deduction law, created in 1961 to encourage single-income households composed of a primary earner and a stay-at-home caregiver, gives tax breaks to primary earners if their spouse’s yearly income is significantly low – another factor that contributes to the systematic exclusion of women from the workforce. The government did consider eliminating this spousal deduction entirely as a part of their fiscal tax reform in 2017; however, out of concern that it would upset many of those in favor of the widespread family system comprised of an income-earner and a homemaker, it merely ended up increasing the income cap of secondary earners from the original 1.03 million yen to 1.5 million yen as the requirement to qualify for tax deductions. Such reform only benefits households comprised of one full-time and one part-time employee at most, resulting in only limited effects in promoting full-time employment, or any employment for that matter, of women.

A more far-reaching reform

following the Nordic countries’ “dual earner-dual career” family model, such as a uniform tax law for married couples regardless of income to encourage fulltime female employment, would be incredibly helpful in promoting greater gender employment equality and subsequent economic growth. However, as it can be seen from the tax reform and Tokyo Medical University examples illustrated above, the foremost challenge in Japan today is the deeply rooted gender inequality prevalent in all areas of society that continues to prevent women from entering the workforce. It is therefore most important for the government to lead the way in transforming the underlying social beliefs about the role of women in society for its structural reforms to take hold efficiently.

This means challenging the widely-held belief that women should stay at home by leading the push for greater education and training for women through expansive institutional reform, so that they can be adequately prepared to reach their full potential of participating in the workforce.

It means cracking down on unfair employment practices against women for their sex that bar them from participating in the economy as they would like, as was in the case of the Tokyo Medical University’s manipulation of entrance exam scores to favor male applicants over their female counterparts. It also means transforming the society’s negative perception of men who take paternity leave, so that more men are encouraged

to help with child rearing and thus allow women to feel more comfortable with being a mother and a participant of the workforce at the same time. It means implementing strict policies to ensure that female workers do not suffer from hostile treatment currently prevalent in the workplace, most commonly in the form of matahara (“maternity harassment”)– workplace harassment targeted against pregnant and post-pregnant women who remain in the workforce. And it means continuing to expand reforms aimed at increasing workplace accessibility for women, such as increased child care facilities, adequate representation of women in senior management positions, and improved tax reforms.

In his aforementioned address to the UN General Assembly, Prime Minister Abe stressed his goal of creating a “society in which women can shine.” The inclusion of women into the greater economic agenda is no doubt a big step forward– and it has shown promising results, albeit certainly not fast or efficient enough for both gender equality and economic growth. In order to achieve even further positive outcomes, the Japanese government should invest in much more extensive efforts to remediate the inherent gender inequality rooted deep within the Japanese society and ensure that women feel welcomed into the workforce, in pursuit of a world in which women can truly shine to their full potential, both for themselves as well as for the overall Japanese economy.☐ 7

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HEATED ARGUMENTS AND COLD FEET Climate change, conflict, and migration.

Stella Cavedon Climate change is caused by the excessive release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere; its results are vast but include an increase in the growing period of warm weather crops, as well as droughts, heat waves, a change in precipitation patterns, stronger hurricanes, rising sea levels (1-4 feet by 2100), and the melting of glaciers.

Considering that climate change is happening in every ecosystem on earth, it will inevitably impact the lives of humans within them, in turn impacting the relationships between and within nations. Scientists have found a strong correlation between climate change and human migration.

Moreover, within politically unstable countries, the implications of increasing temperatures have been stressors for civil conflict.

Some of today’s greatest climate-induced civil wars are unfolding in Darfur and Syria, according to a majority of researchers. In Darfur, a decrease in fertile land availability has led to conflict revolving around the question of equality amongst Africans and Arabs. In

Syria, a long-lasting drought was the catalyst for a peaceful revolt turned violent. These wars, in combination with potential future conflicts between Middle Eastern countries over water, will likely spur further international tensions involving migration and resource availability.

The Syrian Civil War and Climate Change The Syrian Civil War was inspired by the successful Arab Spring uprising in neighboring countries in 2011. The Arab Spring resulted in the overthrow of the oppressive Tunisian and Egyptian presidents, giving the people in Syria hope for a more democratic future. What began in 2011 as a peaceful protest against unemployment, government corruption, and a lack of political freedom quickly turned into a full-scale war of unjust and brutal death and destruction. Responsibility for the shift in the nature of the civil conflict rests on the shoulders of Syria’s authoritarian leader, President Bashar al-Assad. However, considering the ecological circumstances of the protest, scientists today are asking: could it be that 367,965

people died because a drought pushed them to rebel against authoritarian forces?

Colin Kelley, a research fellow at the Center for Climate and Security, commented on the topic, stating, “we’re not arguing that the drought, or even human-induced climate change, caused the uprising,” but that “the long term trend, of less rainfall and warmer temperatures in the region, was a contributing factor, because it made the drought so much more severe.”

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has found that Syria is among the nations with the fastest depleting water supplies in the world. In 2008, the absence of rain accounted for a 22% decrease in agricultural production. The drought, which lasted several years, caused numerous farmers to migrate towards the urban centers of Syria; between 2002 and 2009, the urban population increased by 50%. Meanwhile, between 2001 and 2007, employment in the agricultural sector decreased by 33%. Consequently, there were numerous financially challenged men and women struggling to survive in cities.

General consensus amongst researchers is that the drought did contribute to the uprising of 2011.

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW // SUMMER 2019 // 09 As such, the second question to ask is whether the drought was a result of man-induced climate change. Researcher Colin P. Kelley has found that higher temperatures and decreasing rainfalls in the area were greatly affected by the increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. Additionally, it was recently found that human activities contributing to atmospheric CO2 levels, such as the burning of fossil fuels, made the drought two to three times more likely to occur. Although there is room to argue for other contributing factors, it can be assumed that human activities caused an increase in atmospheric CO2 levels and, as a result, the drought.

This phenomenon was also a result of irresponsible agricultural practices. Water had been greatly overused in previous years to grow crops like cotton, causing the land to become dry and infertile.

Moreover, the government had cancelled finances for power irrigation pumps and produce transportation. President Bashar al-Assad failed to respond accordingly or with appropriate speed, in turn affecting millions of Syrian citizens for the next decade, if not longer.

The Syrian Civil War, which began with a drought and developed into a full-scale conflict marked by Bashar al-Assad’s ruthless killings, resulted in massive migration towards European countries. In England, the influx of refugees has contributed to the British decision to leave the European Union. In Germany, Italy, and France, it has brought about racist and anti-immigrant activities and political parties. As temperatures increase, more people will migrate, further-

ing international tensions and ques- sparked cross-border raids by the tions regarding national security Janjaweed, a terrorist group supand moral politics. ported by the government of Sudan. In the future, the migration of The Civil War in Darfur and foreign refugees from Darfur into Climate Change Chad is likely to spark anti-immigration policies and terrorist-relatCivil war broke out in Darfur in ed brutality. To top it off, Western 2003 when the Justice and Equal- nations are hesitant to accommoity Movement (JEM) and the Su- date refugees for fear of disturbing dan Liberation Army (SLA) rebelled oil trade relations with the Sudaagainst the Khartoum government nese government. As such, Darfur in the name of equality. The vio- is receiving less aid than it otherlence with which the government wise might have. responded escalated into a genoToday, men, women, and chilcide that claimed the lives of nearly dren continue to be plagued by 400,000 people. violence in Darfur. The increasing Former United Nations Sec- impact of global warming on land retary-General Ban Ki-moon de- productivity will remain the greatscribed the war in Darfur as the first est challenge to peaceful social reclimate change war. A study con- lations in Sudan. As nations wrestle ducted by Edward Miguel reported with dwindling natural resources, that conflicts in Africa are expect- racially inclined prejudice, and ed to increase by 54% by 2030, the the desire for international peace, equivalent of 393,000 battle deaths, migration will become the chief due to rising temperatures. In the problem facing politicians and foryears leading up to war in Darfur, the eign policy.

Sahara desert expanded by a mile each year and rainfalls decreased Israel–Palestine and Climate between 15% and 30%. These Change changes impacted small farm owners and pastorians the most, creatBy the year 2100, temperatures ing conflict between the sedentary in the Middle East are expected farmers, who identify as African, no- to increase by 1.6 to 1.8 degrees madic herders, who are for the most while precipitation is expected to part Arab, and the government. decrease by 50%. The effects of As a result of the global-warm- climate change will include water ing induced war, 1.2 million people shortages, a decrease in agriculhave been displaced, of whom only tural productivity, migration, more 30% are receiving assistance. Chad, refugees from areas facing land a neighboring country, is currently inundation due to rising sea levels, hosting 200,000 refugees. However, and other various financial difficulChad’s limited resources and scarce ties. In Israel, the water shortage is water supply prevent it from accom- especially critical considering the modating any more refugees in the fact that the country can only drink future. Moreover, the entrance of from its own water sources to avoid foreign citizens into Chad has put poisoning by neighboring coungreat pressures on locals. It has also tries.

14 20172019 // COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW 10 // // FALL SUMMER // COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW The obstacles of global warming will complicate Israel’s ability to comply with the Jordan River and Yarmouk River water-sharing arrangements. These agreements were created to allocate necessary amounts of water to Israel and its neighboring nations for the prevention of conflict. If Israel were to demand more water, the agreements would be impacted and would require revision. This necessity would be cause for conflict between Israel and other Middle Eastern countries sharing the same water sources.

Global warming has also impacted the quality of Israel’s water and its availability in the territory.

97% of the water in the Gaza strip is undrinkable. For example, the increasing salinity and pollution of the water available in the Gaza strip recently caused the death of a five year old. Israel’s attempts to fix the problem have been set back

by bombings in the Gaza War. According to the UN, the Gaza War in 2014 alone resulted in 30 million dollars worth of damage to water infrastructure. The conflict for Israel has only heightened the uninhabitability of Gaza and, in turn, increased emigration from the territory.

What Does It All Boil Down To? Climate change has lead to desertification, a decrease in drinkable water availability, and droughts.

Within any affected country, increasing temperatures lead to unemployment, migration, urbanization, and hunger. In combination with politically repressive governments, these factors either have already resulted in civil war, as in Darfur and Syria, or are likely to lead to it in the future.

It is no secret that countries around the globe are failing to take

seriously the biggest problem facing the 21st century. Climate change will not just affect the world tomorrow, its impact can be felt today. Yemen’s declining water availability and unequal distribution of the resource between social classes has sparked rebellions against government corruption. Similar issues have arisen in India about the Cauvery Basin, Egypt regarding the Nile, and Bolivia in the “Water War of Cochabamba.”

The conflict in Yemen and the Water War of Cochabamba, during which 9 people died trying to make drinkable water available to the public, indicate that water may become a commodity of the wealthy in developing countries.

Meanwhile, until climate change gains the status of a first world pandemic, insignificant treaties and charters will continue to be drafted in place of substantive actions for change.☐

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DEMOCRATS’ LATINO OUTREACH NEEDS SOME WORK Maria Castillo Last week, Politico published an article titled “Latino outreach or Google translate? Dems bungle Spanish websites” that provided insight and commentary on a layered issue that has been hiding in plain sight for years now.

This article analyzes the platforms, policy proposals, ideas, and campaign narratives written in Spanish for the purpose of increasing Latino voter outreach on the websites of potential 2020 presidential candidates. The opening line of the article sets a snarky and playful yet concerned tone that captures the underlying urgency within the rest of the piece: “Using Google to translate English text into Spanish is a trick used by high school students to avoid doing their Spanish homework––not something you’d expect to see from candidates for the highest office in the land. Yet several Democratic White House hopefuls appear to be doing precisely that.” The very people currently in the race of their lives for the Democratic presidential nomination (who heavily depend on the turnout of black and brown voters) are the very same people whose best effort to connect with Latino voters was to haphazardly

use Google Translate to convey complex and important campaign ideas.

The analysis in the Politico article mostly consists of cross-referencing Google translations of the content on the English website of the different campaigns and the content on the Spanish website of that same candidate. English Website, Exact Google Translation, and Campaign are the three columns used in the article to visually demonstrate how similar or different the content on the Spanish website is from the Google Translate translation. However, Politico also did a review of grammar, general style, and the way that American idioms and metaphors were rewritten to make sense in Spanish (if adjusted at all).

This analysis assigns a letter grade to each current presidential candidate’s Spanish website and Latino Outreach efforts, ranging from F (no Spanish content at all present on website) to an A-minus.

On top of this analysis, Politico’s article also points out egregious errors from the candidates’ Spanish websites. An example of a blatant mistake on an official campaign website was Senator Harris misusing the word “gastar” when she meant to say she has “spent” her entire life defending

the values of our country. The word “gastar” in this context holds the verb definition of “waste” rather than “spend”, thus publishing on Harris’ official website that she has “wasted her life defending the value of this country.” Awkward.

In English, and especially in this context, there is a significant difference between the meanings of “spent” and “wasted.” One would think that a campaign staffer would catch that, right? Perhaps a Spanish-speaking member would, but then again, if a campaign is using Google Translate for their Spanish websites, they probably do not have many Spanish-speaking staffers on hand.

This problem persists beyond the campaign trail: the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies published a report in late September 2018 that found that only 13.7% of top aides in the House of Representatives are people of color, despite making up 38% of the population of the United States. Becoming cognizant of the lack of racial and ethnic representation amongst the people in the highest advisory positions to candidates and elected officials is critical to understanding the state of voting outreach for Latinos and other minorities.

The Google-translated, mis11

12 //SUMMER 2019 // COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW used, misspelled, and cacophonous sentences on candidates’ Spanish websites goad many Latinos to feel a larger lack of respect towards their communities and a half-hearted desire to engage in a meaningful dialogue. How can you create dialogue with incoherent sentences? To some, these faux pas are a careless and even comical misstep that shows a simple sign of human error, while to others, these mistakes can represent something much deeper than simply a typo or inaccurate translation. At a time when Democratic leadership has expressed an urgency to connect and inspire the Hispanic electorate, it seems that the campaigns handled this facet of their outreach irresponsibly.

Historically, the Latino population of the United States has had very low voter turnout. In a report done by the Census Bureau that measured the voting rates by race from every election from 1980 until 2016, Hispanics voted at the lowest rate amongst all other ethnic groups in the United States.

Many studies by voting rights, immigration, and Latino scholars have concluded that Latino political participation stems from low rates of voter registration, organization involvement, campaigning, and turnout when compared to other other demographics. With the Hispanic electorate increasing by around one million people per year, massive groups of the population are currently being left out of the political process. There is a lot of work left to do.

Interestingly enough, although the Politico article provided an in-depth, important crit-

ical lens on the caliber, accuracy, and effort spent on candidates’ Spanish content, the conflation of Spanish content and Latino outreach received some criticism.

At first, tepid Latino outreach appeared to be the most pressing and concerning takeaway from the article, but a former Clinton staffer added another layer to the article that completely reframed the conversation on how we view Latino outreach.

Former communications staffer and Latino Outreach Director for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Presidential campaign Paola Luisi responded to the Politico article on Twitter, saying, “A Spanish-language website is not synonymous with Latinx outreach. Punto. The Latinx community is extraordinarily [sic.] diverse in race, language, history and geography [sic.] and to assume that ‘Latino outreach’ equals Spanish language once again misses this key point.” Luisi was the campaign content strategist who ran the translation program of the digital and social media teams for Clinton. In previous interviews, she has said that Clinton’s Latino outreach efforts through Spanish language websites were not enough to connect with the heart of the Latino community in the United States. Her response raises the question: Should Latino outreach be more than Hillary calling herself an “abuela” and Tim Kaine professing that he was a “Catolico” in several speeches? Is speaking Spanish at a superficial level enough to win over a demographic that has increased its electorate in the past 4 years by 4 million voters, with US-born Latinos coming of voting age and now speaking

English proficiently at a rate of 68%?

Is calling yourself abuela or saying that you enjoy eating tacos enough?

Was that ever enough?

The core of the problem regarding our current understanding of what constitutes “Latino outreach” is a lack of effort to reach out to the Latino community in a meaningful and thoughtful way; this includes the failure to recognize the diverse set of experiences within that community. If a campaign decides to release content in Spanish, there should be a standard of accountability and decorum to which that campaign should be held. But, as Paola Luisi mentions, having websites that are written in Spanish is not enough anymore. The Latino community in the United States is rapidly changing, and the least the Democratic party can do is attempt to catch up.

A presidential candidate who has also helped us reframe how we view Latino outreach is the only Latino who has announced a presidential bid so far: former Mayor of San Antonio and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro. Born and raised in the quintessentially historic city of San Antonio, the way that he has handled his own Latino outreach has been fascinating and telling of the necessity for multidimensional outreach that captures all the differences within the Latino community. Does a Latino candidate have to speak Spanish to try to appeal to a community to which he already belongs?

A recent interview with Julián Castro on NPR’s Latino USA provided a unique insight into how many view the expectations of Latino candidates to speak perfect Spanish.

This expectation in itself has its own implications, and here Julian ex-

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW // SUMMER 2019 // 13 plores the historical implications mentioned in his NPR interview, from age 5 to 17 who said they only (and irony) of this expectation. it was not only school teachers in speak English jumped from 73% to The host of the podcast, Maria South Texas dissuading the use 88% from 2000 to 2014. These staHinojosa, asks “[Many say] Julián of Spanish, but also Latino fami- tistics reinforce the notion that the does not speak Spanish… did he lies themselves who had internal- Latino community is not a monoassimilate too much? What is your ized that they would be labeled as lith, and consists of individuals with response to that?” Castro laughs sub-American if they spoke Span- varying proficiencies of both Enand responds, “When my grand- ish rather than English in public. glish and Spanish. As such, speakmother came to the United States, This historical connotation of who ing a few sentences of Spanish on there were storefront windows in Latino people are and how they’ve the campaign trail misses the point Texas that said ‘No Mexicans or been socialized to view their bi- of who Latinos are.

Dogs Allowed’ and for her and for linguality is another important As we go further into the cammy mother, if you spoke Spanish factor for campaigns to take into paign season and look toward in school, the upcoming you would primary elecget pun“For [my grandmother] and for my mother, if you spoke tions within the ished... they Spanish in school, you would get punished...they were D e m o c r a t i c were beating party, it is inbeating the Spanish out of families.”

-Julian Castro the Spanish cumbent upon out of famvoters to hold ilies... So it’s politicians acvery ironic that they used to tell our account when conducting Latino countable for the way they reach mothers and our grandmothers... outreach. In the present day, many out to marginalized communities and you know, grandfathers and generations of Latinos are losing and the platforms through which fathers ‘you are not good enough their Spanish as their connection they choose to promote thembecause you don’t speak English to their country of origin fades selves. No voting bloc or demowell enough’ and then they are away. According to a survey con- graphic is monolithic, and it shortturning around and telling their ducted by the Pew Research Cen- changes both voters and politicians grandsons ‘you are not good ter in 2015, 71% of Latinos said it from meaningful discourse if they enough because you don’t speak is absolutely not necessary are viewed as one. Our politicians Spanish well enough.’ I mean, that to speak Spanish to should be speaking to and makis quite an irony.” be considered Latiing space for our fifth-generaJulián’s story within the Lati- no. Pew Hispanic tion Mexican-American famino community is not unique in Center also reportlies from the Southwest and the slightest. He comes from San ed that amongst California while also fosterAntonio, Texas, a city known for third-generation ing connections with newly its discrimination against those of Latino parents, arrived families from Central Latin American origin, especially the percentage America that are just beginafter the 1950s and 1960s. Sevof Latinos ning their American journey in eral generations of immigrants search of a better life. While from Latin American countries each candidate will who came primarily to look go about this for employment were treated differentas second-class citizens, and ly, ditching were forced to give up their Google language through the institranslate is tutions and communities a good first NBC News they joined. As Julián step.☐ 13

14 // SUMMER 2019// COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW

HOW CAN DEMOCRATS WIN IN 2020?

Take a page from the Abrams playbook.

Eric Scheuch

that result. While she lost, Abrams won more votes than any Democrat in the history of Georgia thanks to historic voter turnout. Overall, Democratic turnout jumped over 50% from the last gubernatorial election, with youth turnout increasing 139% and more black voters showing up for Abrams than all the voters who turned out for the last Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Jason Carter--a state senator and the grandson of Jimmy Carter. Abrams didn’t

achieved, the question arises: what lessons can Democrats apply to the 2020 race?

Given the importance of the 2020 general election to the future STOP SPENDING SO MUCH of the Democratic party, there will ON BROADCAST be much discussion over the next two years about who is the best Ever since the invention of TV candidate to run in the election and and Radio, broadcast advertising what strategy they should employ. has been a mainstay of political Nobody can tell you which of the strategy, devouring a large percent15 (plus or minus a few) Democratic age of campaign budgets along candidates is the most “electable,” the way. But, as the 2016 election but there are demonstratmany differed, broad“It would be easy to dismiss Abrams’ campaign...[but] ent ‘theories cast adverof the case.’ tising is far while she lost, Abrams won more votes than any DemoAnd while from a surecrat in the history of Georgia.” “visit Wisconfire way to sin” is a good get people start, to find an election strategy just increase turnout among minori- to the polls: in the Republican prithat can deliver the general election ty and youth voters; she also won a mary, Jeb Bush and fellow Floridian knockout punch Democrats des- greater share of the white vote than Marco Rubio each spent more than perately want, they need look no President Obama or any Democrat $70 million on ads, and in the genfurther than Stacey Abrams’ 2018 since the 90s. She did all of this in eral election the Clinton campaign campaign for governor of Georgia. the face of an election run by her outspent Trump 3-to-1 on TV adIt would be easy to dismiss opponent, then-Secretary of State vertising. All three went on to lose Abrams’ campaign as a model by Brian Kemp, who employed tac- their respective races. The Abrams taking the end result as emblematic tics such as purging voters from the campaign recognized the shortof the quality of the entire campaign: rolls, leading the The New Yorker to comings of broadcast advertising she did lose, in the end, by a little call him the “Martin Shkreli of Voter early, calling it a “losing formula” over 1% of the vote. But to do so Suppression.” In the face of these and plowing money instead into would be to overlook the quality of challenges, Abrams’ campaign re- a record-breaking ground game what she achieved and the potency sults are all the more impressive. of canvassers and phone bankers. of the model that propelled her to Given the magnitude of what she She beat her primary opponent, 14

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW // SUMMER 2019 // 15

The Root

Stacey Evans, who outspent her on TV advertising by a margin of 3-to1. Abrams’ campaign preference for spending money on talking to voters face to face as opposed to through a screen likely played a role in her primary success. Speaking of talking to people...

TALK TO EVERYONE, WHEREVER THEY ARE The single most remarkable feature of the Abrams campaign was the time and resources it poured into registering voters from under-contacted communities.

Crucially, once these people were registered, Abrams turned them out on election day by coming to their communities and talking to

them where they were. As Abrams put it in an interview with New York Magazine, “You have to go knock on their doors. Go to rural communities, to depressed communities, to communities where there is absolutely no trust in politics or in politicians.” Among other efforts, the Abrams campaign had specific programs to target Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders, and it was the first campaign in Georgian history to run advertisements in Spanish. Those efforts paid off in spades, as turnout more than tripled among the targeted communities. But Abrams also showed a willingness to talk to rural voters in the deep-red counties that Trump won by double digits, which likely contributed

to Democrats’ improved performance among white voters after decades of decline. Such a strategy is backed not only by empirical evidence, but also by a common sense principle: voters, especially those who feel neglected by politicians, appreciate efforts to meet them where they live and talk to them about their issues in their language.

As 2020 Democratic primary fields begin to take shape in races that range from President to Senate to school board, the Abrams campaign model of spending money to talk to everyone where they are, rather than dumping money into TV ads that nobody watches, can serve as a template for candidates up and down the ballot.☐ 15

16 // SUMMER 2019 // COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW

LIBERAL CANDIDATES’ EMBRACE OF TRADITIONAL FAMILY VALUES Hypocritical, yet necessary.

Rachel Barkin After months of teasing the question, Beto O’Rourke finally announced his 2020 run for president in a Facebook video: “Amy and I are happy to share with you that I am running to serve you as the next president of the United States of America.” He outlined his campaign on his living room couch accompanied by his wife Amy, who is seen tightly clutching his left arm and smiling sympathetically. She remained silent while he used his right arm to make exaggerated hand movements. While I was excited to hear O’Rourke’s announcement, I could not help but laugh at the awkward juxtaposition of his progressive platform partnered with a tacit display of traditional gender roles. Why would he bring his wife to the forefront of his campaign if she would remain silent throughout the video?

Amy O’Rourke will not be the first nor the last wife of a presidential candidate to serve as a political ploy to garner support during a campaign. In 1940, Eleanor Roosevelt was the first wife of a presidential candidate to give a convention speech in support of

her husband. By speaking about the endearing, lesser-known qualities of Franklin Roosevelt, she redefined the role of the political spouse to be the person who can humanize and reveal the more personable side of the candidate: their trustworthiness, stability, and authenticity. She set a precedent for future campaigning spouses to serve as a political vessel through which their husbands could showcase their domestic principles.

Eleanor also revealed the tremendous power a political wife has in targeting their demographic through her work with campaign biographers to rally women voters. She became so integral to her husband’s campaign that when Franklin Roosevelt considered leaving her for his mistress Lucy Mercer, his campaign manager, Louis Howe, convinced him not to because the divorce would destroy his chance of winning over women voters. Howe understood that voters were electing not just a Commander-in-Chief, but a face for the country, and that the people chosen to live in the White House would need to represent their ideal American family. Howe instructed Roosevelt to employ an effective political strategy to appeal to the family values of both

women and social conservatives.

He encouraged Eleanor to match these traditional expectations by coupling her active political involvement with a reaffirmation of her role as a mother and faithful wife.

Jacqueline “Jackie” Kennedy, arguably the most outspoken spouse since Eleanor Roosevelt, appealed to these two demographics as well. She appeared in TV commercials, gave interviews, and wrote a column called “Campaign Wife,” where she gave her personal perspective on campaign issues. Despite her promotion of gender equality, she stated: “I’ll always do anything my husband asks me to do if he wants me to do that. Of course, I’d be delighted. I am an old-fashioned wife.”

Similarly, Jimmy Carter carefully spoke of his marriage with Rosalynn Carter so as not to alienate the religious right. He presented his wife as his equal while simultaneously asserting her role as “a quiet, soft, female,” and justified gender equality with pious arguments that women have been “deprived of the right to serve Jesus Christ in positions of leadership as they did during his earthly ministry and in the early Christian

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW // SUMMER 2019 // 17 churches.” Rosalynn served his approach by championing the Equal Rights Amendment and women’s political involvement, but assured moderate conservatives that she firmly stood against legal abortion. Carter’s strategy of using his domestic beliefs as a tool to pander to theological sentiments while still adhering to a progressive platform won him the presidency with around 63% of white Protestant votes and 45% of women’s votes.

Throughout history, the strides that liberal presidential candidates and their wives have made towards gender equality have not been diminished by the traditional values they embrace; rather, by carefully embracing those values, their progressive platform has become more permissible in the eyes of the public.

Being a candidate who acts in a conventional manner and a candidate who believes in gender equality are not mutually exclusive. Further, the campaign wife is simply adapting to the moral principles of voters in order to promote the election of their spouse. As the electorate desires a more personal connection with their Commander-in-Chief, their families are propelled into the limelight, often against their wills.

The media scrutinizes and sensationalizes these families’ financial background, education, and appearance because these qualities interest voters. The role spouses play in campaigns are simply a reflection of constituent’s demands.

As the electorate has adopted more progressive values, politicians seemingly have adopted

Rachel Barkin

17

18 // SUMMER 2019 // COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW more equal relationship dynamics as well. Voters now encourage unapologetic, outspoken wives, giving emergence to political spouses like Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton whose husbands promote their individual ambitions, often encouraging them take on political positions themselves. In fact, many voters loved the Obamas and Clintons not because they fulfilled traditional roles but because both spouses were highly educated and modeled equal partnerships. Journalist Connie Schultz put it best when she said, “I voted for Bill Clinton...because he would choose to have such a strong, intelligent, well-spoken, obviously successful woman around him, that he didn’t show any resentment towards.” Little surprise, then, that Schultz is herself the wife of prominent Ohio senator, Sherrod Brown.

Contrary to Michelle and Hillary, who spoke on the campaign trail about their own careers and

aspirations, Amy O’Rourke focuses on her role as a mother. She joins her husband in almost every press release, but only to share wholesome memories of motherhood like the time Beto gave her a bowl of their child’s poop. Together, the O’Rourkes have assumed conservative familial roles: Amy is the supportive wife who gave up graduate school at Beto’s behest and now raises their kids, “sometimes with [his] help.” Introducing his campaign with “Amy and I,” echoing Newt Gingrich who often says “Callista and I,” Beto stresses the importance of his wife to his ambitions, but does not necessarily promote her individual value.

If voter expectations have changed to encourage more equal partnerships, how can this contradiction be accounted for?

While the electorate as a whole is generally more accepting towards unconventional families, the importance of family values for women and moderate conservatives

Texas Monthly

has remained stagnant. A poll that USA Today and Gallup conducted in 2007 revealed that family values resonate more with conservatives and women than any other demographic: 79% women and 86% of Republicans reported that candidate’s positions on family values were either “extremely or very important” in determining their vote. Their rationale is that a politician’s family structure may be indicative of the policies they would promote. The votes of women and moderate conservatives are crucial to winning an election, so co-opting the values of both demographics remains an effective strategy. Originally campaigning for a Senate seat in Texas, a historically red state, O’Rourke has greatly benefited from appealing to societal expectations on both sides of the aisle.

This political tactic may seem hypocritical, but it is valid. Even for a liberal candidate who believes in a gender equality, tapping into voters’ implicit predilection towards a nuclear family produces positive results. Liberal candidates like Beto O’Rourke must embrace conservative principles to some degree in order to be elected.

Defeating President Trump will be impossible without forming a powerful coalition between women and left-of-center voters who otherwise form a polarized electorate. The importance of principle versus effective political tactics can be debated, but, at the end of the day, Democrats need to embrace some political pragmatism if they want to win in 2020.☐

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW // SUMMER 2019 // 19

PEACE IN THE HORN What regional peace might entail for Eritrea and Ethiopia.

Feven Negussie July 2018 came as a sheer surprise to many people around the world who watched in awe as Eritrea and Ethiopia, two long-standing foes, decided to settle on a highly-anticipated peace deal. The signing of the peace agreement has not only marked a watershed in the history of relations between the two nations, ending decades of seething hostility akin to a cold war, but has also restored the unity of the countries’ people, who share similar cultures, traditions, and inextricably linked histories. However, several key questions are yet to be answered, including what kind of changes will result in East Africa and how the deal will translate into tangible reforms in the two countries’ domestic spheres.

Before the advent of the peace deal, Eritrea and Ethiopia had been stuck in a frustrating ‘no war, no peace’ impasse for two decades, which has led to nothing but poor diplomatic ties and extremely militarized borders. Border crossings between the two countries were off limits, which led to the separation of many families and the banning of trade. Now that the borders have reopened,

families divided for years have finally reunited, and trade is said to have resumed. Ethiopia has immediately begun reforms following the signing of the peace deal, with one notable and popular reform being the release of its political prisoners.

Hailed by the international community as the dawn of a new period for the Horn of Africa, the peace deal between Eritrea and Ethiopia is expected to be the first of many steps to decisively establish peace and security in the region. Since this military threat no longer menaces either country, the expectation for Eritrea and Ethiopia is that they will now attend to developmental efforts and cooperate to bolster their economies. Currently, both countries (mainly Eritrea) rely on remittances from their vast diaspora populations to sustain their economies. Along with the formation of tight political and diplomatic ties, Eritrea and Ethiopia might also potentially form regional integrated economic systems where both can stand to gain.

After Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki’s initial reluctance to respond to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s peace deal proposal, he has

now been spearheading subsequent diplomatic advancements amongst other East African nations alongside Prime Minister Ahmed. Eritrea’s position as an outsider on the international stage before July 2018 has been the result of historically tense relations with Ethiopia and its allies, including the United States. In 2009, the United Nations imposed an arms embargo on Eritrea, claiming that it had allegedly provided support to a militant group, Al-Shabaab, in Somalia and had refused to withdraw its troops from a disputed border territory in Djibouti. Following Eritrea’s restored amicable relations with its neighboring countries Ethiopia and Djibouti, the UN lifted its sanctions and arms embargo from the nation, allowing for significant economic development.

President Afewerki’s maintenance of Eritrea’s current policies has been attributed to two reasons: Eritrea’s tense relations with Ethiopia, and Ethiopia’s refusal to relinquish its claim on Eritrea’s territory, Badme, which is located on the border of the two nations. Now that Ethiopia has vowed to recognize and uphold the commission ruling in 2002 granting Badme to Eritrea and placed 19

20 // SUMMER 2019 // COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW itself in the vanguard to dispel all tense and strained relations with Eritrea, Eritreans, along with the international community, now wait to see whether President Afewerki’s policies will be discarded or if he will adopt a pretext to continue with current ones.

Before Prime Minister Ahmed’s inauguration, Ethiopia actively sought to destabilize Eritrea, chiefly by wielding its partnerships with the West in its endeavor to further isolate its longtime foe, particularly after the 2002 border commision ruling. Ethiopia, in abortive attempts, has filed an accusation in 2016 in an effort to stage a case against the Eritrean government for committing crimes against humanity and attacking its border. Eventually, attempts to destabilize Eritrea became not only costly but burdensome for Ethiopia, especially when it was grappling with its own internal ethnic turmoil. Prime Minister Ahmed’s appointment was vital in the initiation of normalizing relations with Eritrea because the shift within the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Party (EPRDF) and his Oromo identity made it possible for Ethiopia and Eritrea to dispel their decades-long tension by ousting the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the party which has formerly dominated Ethiopia’s government for more than two decades. Historically, after the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) — which was then a rebel group — helped the TPLF topple Ethiopia’s Marxist re-

gime, the relationship between the EPLF and TPLF gradually deteriorated to the point where the TPLF has been at the forefront of amplifying the tension and threat between Eritrea and Ethiopia as well as heightening unrest at home by antagonizing some of the ethnic groups. This is evident in the recurring protests by the Oromo and Amhara groups. Now, with the TPLF sidelined, peace and cooperation between Eritrea and Ethiopia has never been more feasible.

The historic peace deal between Eritrea and Ethiopia has spurred a series of diplomatic breakthroughs amongst other nations in East Africa. For example, the rapprochement between Eritrea and Djibouti has received praise from the international community as another step towards establishing a sweeping peace in the horn.

Djibouti and Eritrea have been at odds ever since the two countries descended into a clash in 2008 over Dumeria, a disputed border region that both countries claim as their own. After the restoration of diplomatic ties between the two African countries, Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf stated, “With the truthful willingness demonstrated by Eritrea and Djibouti to make peace, all other pending issues will find their way to resolution.” The normalization of relations between Eritrea and Somalia has also been a noteworthy event of late after Somalia’s president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, visited Asmara to restore diplomatic

and political ties following a decade of hostility. The animosity between the two officially took off after Eritrea was accused of supporting the militant group in Somalia.

The pursuit of regional peace has evidently, and successfully, been undertaken by President Afewerki and Prime Minister Ahmed, but we must wait to see what the economic practicalities of this deal entail.

What is certain is that Ethiopia’s biggest gain from the normalization of relations with Eritrea is its access to the Red Sea ports.

Until now, the landlocked state has been paying very costly fees to Djibouti for commercial activities, but now peace with Eritrea means that Asab will presumably emerge as Ethiopia’s primary trade port. In exchange, Eritrea will no longer need to expend its efforts to bolster its national security in order to deter Ethiopia’s military threat; it is now able to establish a benign presence on the international stage and form diplomatic ties with other countries. With open trade-routes, Eritrea can now have access to markets in Ethiopia, and Ethiopia could even perhaps invest in Eritrea along with accessing its ports. Citizens of both Eretria and Ethiopia hope that this mutually beneficial partnership and newfound regional peace will soon translate into domestic policy reforms within the two countries. If successful, these reforms could ring in a new era of prosperity both within and without these countries’ borders.☐

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW // SUMMER 2019 // 21

A THIRD WAY? WHAT PARTY DEFECTIONS MEAN FOR BREXIT AND BEYOND Jasleen Chaggar If the news of the recent defections of eleven British Members of Parliament (MPs) from their parties escaped your attention, you’re not alone.

who initially came together to support a second referendum, were mocked by Labour MP John McDonnell as “completely irrelevant.” Yet, in reality, these strange bedfellows are far more remarkable than they may seem. A symptom of

and right. In her struggle to divorce Britain from the European Union, Theresa May’s conservative government is splintered between hard-line Brexiteers and soft-Brexit Tories. On the opposite bench, Labour is locked in its own

Parliament.uk

Over the deafening chaos of an unresolved Brexit, the formation of the so-called Independent Group went almost unnoticed. The eight former Labourites and three Tories,

the country’s political malaise, this rebel group represents a new force in British politics.

The unlikely alliance offers a centrist alternative to the increasingly divergent left

existential battle, suffocating under the weight of reported anti-Semitism and its leader Jeremy Corbyn refusing to pick a side in the Brexit debate.

Meanwhile, with the leader of

22 // SUMMER 2019 // COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW the traditionally centrist party, the Liberal Democrats, stepping down due to internal critiques of his performance, the British public is in desperate need of a strong party whose policies occupy the middle ground.

The Independent Group offers just this. The deliberately ambiguous christening of the alliance as “independent” and its denouncement of the most radical Labour policies, such as free college tuition, help establish the group as a tabula rasa for public opinion.

Indeed, in an interview with the New Statesman, the de facto leader of the rebel alliance expressed his desire to transcend bipartisan politics, stating, “We’ve got a good chance of moving towards less of a left-right dichotomy and less of a politics based on class and ownership, and more of one that is principally made up of a populist offering.” This centrist approach is an attempt to recalibrate Britain’s political sphere after the divisiveness of Brexit, which has cut across the traditional left and right and fractured party allegiances.

The dominance of the British left and right is arguably more deeply rooted today than in any other contemporary state. Though Americans might feel restricted by their own limited elephant and donkey options, political scientist Leslie Lipson argues, “even during a presidential election, the cohesiveness of the Dem-

ocrats and the Republicans is far from matching that of the Conservatives and Labourites.” Thus, the formation of the Independent Group seeks to break down the restrictions of a two party system, offering a third choice of more nuanced policies that are representative of the variation of views among the British public.

Indeed, more political parties necessarily enable the representation of a greater range of views. In countries such as France and Canada, the presence of multiple parties leads to a politics that is more representative of the nuanced policy demands of their citizens.

And with more parties comes more collaboration. The Commons was designed to be deliberately adversarial, with its benches, as the old lore goes, facing each other at a distance of two sword lengths away.

Thus, the group’s proposal of a ‘horseshoe-shaped’ chamber physically embodies this move towards a more collaborative, multi-party politics.

John McDonnell’s dismissal of the party as “completely irrelevant” also seems flawed given its immediate impact on British politics. Although the new bloc will not change voting in Parliament, since the rebels disobeyed their party whips before their departure, they have already contributed to a new political culture.

As BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg noted, “The defections change not just the official arithmetic in Parlia-

ment, but its alchemy and atmosphere.” Now, as the fourth biggest group in Parliament, the Independent Group’s numbers are larger than those of the government’s coalition party, the Democratic Unionist Party, or DUP. This highlights the potential influence of small parties in hung parliaments.

Moreover, the maverick alliance has already asserted its force in pressuring Corbyn to support a second referendum.

Indeed, MP Chuka Umunna advocated to “give people the final say on Brexit,” and tabled his own amendment for a people’s vote. Corbyn responded to the pressure by committing Labour to supporting attempts to pass a second referendum.

Thus, the groups are not only significant as potential coalition forces, but as voices steering the policy of the main parties.

To undermine the Independent Group as a flash in the pan is to completely underestimate their influence in creating a more centrist, collaborative type of politics. Whilst crystal ball political forecasts are never a good idea, the alliance’s current record of success and today’s political climate indicate a demand for a party like the Independent Group. Although it remains to be seen whether the new bloc will become a force majeure in the Commons, it is fair to say that their formation at least represents a distinctly new direction in British politics a third way, if you will.☐

FEATURE

COLUMBIAPOLITICAL POLITICALREVIEW REVIEW////SUMMER SUMMER2019 2018////2323 COLUMBIA

STREET/SRAID: BREXIT AND THE BATTLE FOR DUAL-LANGUAGE STREET SIGNS IN BELFAST Maeve Flaherty On February 6th, the Belfast City Council approved dual-language street signs for eight streets in West Belfast. The street signs will now feature the Irish-language street name underneath the English one, and will be among the over fifty streets that have switched to dual-language signs in the past year. Since the 1990s, when legislation was introduced that allows street signs to be made dual-language if two-thirds of the residents on the electoral register of the street agree, there have only been 200 street sign changes in Belfast.

This year’s fifty new dual-language signs represent a locally-driven push for the Irish language in a region contentiously fighting over the place of the Irish language on street signs, in national politics, and in Northern Irish culture.

As Brexit looms closer by the day, the eyes of the world are back on Northern Ireland. One of the biggest unanswered questions of the various Brexit plans is the question of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The border has been demilitarized since the 1998 signing of the Good Friday Accords, which ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. An open border was a key part of that peace deal. And with that open border in

greater danger by the day, preexisting sectarian and cultural tensions are rising.

The looming fear of a hard border in a No-Deal Brexit reflects the larger uncertainty surrounding the future relationship of Northern Ireland with Britain and the Republic in a post-Brexit world. Each side of the Northern Irish government is attempting to use Brexit to their advantage: Sinn Féin party members, arguing that Northern Ireland decisively voted to remain in the EU, are calling for a new referendum on Northern Ireland’s UK membership in hopes of a united Ireland. Meanwhile, Democratic Unionist Party (“DUP”) lawmakers, who by allying with Prime Minister Theresa May have given her a majority in Parliament, are using their disproportionate power in Westminster to prevent any Brexit deal that would hint at a separation between Northern Ireland and the UK (i.e. any agreement that includes a backstop).

It is in this heavily politicized landscape that Irish language activists have spent the past few years fighting for an Irish Language Act, or Achta Gaeilge, that would enshrine Irish language rights in Northern Ireland.

Irish language supporters, 15,000 of whom marched on central Belfast in May of 2017, and their allies in the Sinn Féin political party seek a deal that would allow, among other demands, the use of Irish in the courts,

the assembly, and other government bodies, the appointment of an Irish language commissioner, and the right for education in Irish.

An Irish language act would immediately reverberate around the region, not in the words on people’s tongues, but also on the roads they drive on. The act calls for bilingual signage on all public buildings and roads. Street signs would be the first, quickest change, and would face the most immediate rejection.

Historically, any example of Irish in signs or street signs has led to political fighting. In March of 2016, manhole covers in the town of Ballymena were inscribed with both “water” and “uisce” (the Irish word for water). The Deputy Mayor, a Unionist, immediately called for them to be replaced, saying, “Constituents have contacted me to raise questions over the use of Irish water hydrant covers on the ratepayer-funded public realm project in Ballymena town centre.”

For Unionists, the presence of a single Irish word is a threat. The Unionists reject the entire concept of the Irish Language Act, which they view as a Sinn Féin play pushing for a united Ireland. As the Unionists see it, it is an attempt to prioritize a minority over the majority, and it is an explicit cultural threat. In a widely derided 2017 speech, DUP party leader Arlene Foster insisted that the party would never agree to an Irish 23

24 // SUMMER 2019 // COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW Language Act, saying, “If you feed a crocodile, it will keep coming back for more.”

Foster apologized for the statement, but it revealed a larger, existential fear surrounding the use of the Irish language. Any significant recognition of the Irish language is considered an erosion of British identity and a step closer to separating from Britain. It is such a significant threat that the fighting over the Irish Language Act has contributed to the collapse of the power-sharing agreement.

Northern Ireland has been without a sitting government for the past two years; in fact, the region now holds the world record for the longest period without a sitting government.

In January of 2018, talks to reopen the government reconvened, but fell through in February after a

draft deal appeared which was rumored to have included provisions for an Irish Language Act. In a recent article in the Independent, the journalist Ben Kelly explained, “The Irish Language Act has become the most prominent discussion point, not just for Sinn Féin, but among mainstream media and broadcasters, and across Northern Ireland in general [...] any deal would have to include it in some shape or form.”

A variety of scandals and controversies led to the collapse of power-sharing that closed the government; the possibility of an Irish Language Act has kept it closed.

the Gaelic League, an organization that advocates for the Irish language in Ireland and across the world.

Founded in the 1890s, the group was part of a spate of organizations dedicated to developing Irish culture, Irish sports, and creating a sense of “Irishness.” This creation of an Irish identity was an inherently political act.

In keeping with global colonizing practices, the British had established a system of English-language schools and organizations for the specific goal of anglicizing Ireland by the mid1800s. Patrick Pearse, the Irish revolutionary leader, called the schools and the systemic Anglicization they were a part of “the murder machine.” The *** founder of the Irish-language Gaelic The recent campaign for the Irish League, Douglas Hyde, said, “in AnLanguage Act is largely run by Con- glicising ourselves wholesale we have radh na Gaeilge, previously named thrown away with a light heart the

GoAbroad.com

24

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW // SUMMER 2019 // 25 best claim which we have upon the world’s recognition of us as a separate nationality.”

It is this organization, an organization intimately linked to the 1916 Revolution that eventually created a free Ireland, that is one of the largest supporters of the campaign for the Irish Language Act. Historically, Irish language and Irish revolutionary identity were intimately related. Little surprise, then, that the Northern Irish Unionists feel threatened. *** “Who you are depends on where you are,” the Marxist sociologist Henri Lefebvre wrote in a call to understand space, particularly urban space, not as a place in which things happen but as a conceptual location in which identity is defined.

Lefebvre invented the concept of ‘The Right to the City,’ a theory that frames the city as a contested space. According to Lefebvre, the city is defined by the constant conflict between constituent groups over who controls the city, its space, and its identity.

In his article The Latin American City as Contested Space, Gareth Jones explains, “Symbolic oppositions of ‘us’ and ‘them’ are central to the construction of an identity within the representation of space.” Within any constrained space, there is jostling as different groups and members attempt to define and assert their identities in the public space. In this struggle, place names and street signs become a battlefield. Citing Banck’s Signifying Urban Space (1986), Jones continues, “Place is created by the names afforded to it, which reflect the symbolic importance of

the contest for the space to be secured.” Indeed, “examples include the rewriting of street names to embrace a changing notion of national or regional identity.”

Street signs are among the most external signifiers of identity.

They are simultaneously intensely local and standard across borders.

The Vienna Convention on Road Signs and Signals standardized signing for road traffic internationally, ensuring that the iconography of street signs and road markings are largely the same across international borders. A resident of Northern Ireland driving over the soft border into the Republic of Ireland would have no trouble understanding or navigating the streets--they would easily understand the street signs.

But while the street sign serves a clear, universally understood function of directing road traffic and providing a place name, it also presents an identity. The second largest city in Ireland is either Derry or Londonderry, depending on your unionist or nationalist leanings, and the conflict over the name has led to its common presentation on maps and some signs as Londonderry/Derry (Derry-Stroke-Londonderry). The stroke in the middle gave birth to the nickname Stroke City—a nickname which uses the literal divider between two names as a signifier for the city.

versions of descriptive Irish place names. Belfast, for example, is Béal Feirste in Irish. Beal means mouth and Feirste means inlet, referring to the mouth of the River Lagan where Belfast sits. The Irish language name often adds another layer of meaning to the city’s identity, directly connecting the place to ancient Irish myth or emphasizing a specific characteristic of the landscape. To put the Irish name on a street sign is to add a new focus to the public identity of the space.

The Anglicization of place names across the island of Ireland was an act of colonization. That it occurred five hundred years ago does not change the cultural violence inherent in renaming and relabeling a place. The bitter, government-collapsing battle over the place of the Irish language in Northern Ireland underscores the place of street sign iconography as a primary battleground of decolonization. At stake in the signage of Northern Ireland is not merely street names, but the identity of a contested region.

Place names that were once in Irish can and should be presented on signs in both English and Irish.

The Northern Irish government should enact the Irish Language Act, enshrining both identities on the tongues and the street signs of Northern Ireland.

But in a region divided, the process of decolonization occurs *** not nationally, but locally, as individual neighbors decide to double This doubled identity would be the names of their roads. Across made national if the Irish language Northern Ireland, if the government place name was placed on signs remains inactive, dual language with the English language name. street signs will continue to slowly Most of the English language advance neighborhood by neighnames are meaningless, anglicized borhood and street by sráid.☐

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THE CASE FOR A SECOND BREXIT REFERENDUM Ayse Yucesan Brexit: a loaded term that has been at the forefront of British and European politics for what seems like a very long time; a problem with no apparent resolution. In June 2016, over 17 million Brits voted to leave the European Union (EU), and the British government’s efforts to navigate an extremely complex deal have been nothing short of a roller

coaster ride. While 2016 was filled with hopes of a “sensible and orderly departure” from the EU, the current political climate is much less optimistic regarding Britain’s ability to successfully leave the European Union, leaving many Brits much more uncertain about whether or not it should even happen.

Upon the electorate coming to believe that Brexit was, in fact, a bad idea, there were many calls and requests for a second refer-

endum. The turnout for the initial referendum was just over 70%, resulting in a 52% majority decision to leave the EU. Now, members of the public are advocating for the decision to be made in a more democratic fashion, stating that almost 30% had not voted in the initial referendum, and therefore that the result did not reflect the desires of the majority of the British public. As the results of the initial referendum were so close, many argue that the 30% would

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make a notable difference. These given that the entire population The concern of a second refopinions are expressed through had the option to vote, and 30% erendum is that if the public once anti-Brexit protests in the UK, the chose not to, their abstention again votes to leave the EU, the Britmost recent on March 23rd in lead to the “majority” decision of ish parliament is unlikely to reach a London, where hundreds of thou- Brexit. deal, and we will once again enter sands called for another referenSince 2016, Parliament has re- a cycle of meaningless deliberdum. However, it can be argued jected eight possible Brexit deals, ation. If the public votes against that by giving up their right to vote leading to increasing frustration leaving the EU, then the past two initially, those citizens who are around the UK’s successful exit years of political discourse and dinow calling plomacy will for a second have been referendum a complete“If we take the most basic definition of democracy to consented ly wasted mean the rule of the majority, then the initial decision to to whateveffort, and leave the EU is not democratic.” er outcome the initial was going democratic to result decision will from the initial referendum. from the European Union. While be overridden. Without hosting Those who oppose the sec- the initial deadline for Britain’s exit a second referendum, the UK all ond referendum claim that the from the EU was March 29, it has but guarantees a no-deal Brexit, initial one is a democratic deci- been delayed until April 12, as the which would be detrimental to sion, and any action to rescind government is unable to agree on Britain politically, economically, that decision would be an an- a deal. Holding a second referen- and socially. Despite the seemti-democratic act. However, if we dum and allowing the people to ingly obvious hypocrisy, the most take the most basic definition of have the final say seems like the productive way to proceed is to democracy to mean the rule of only way the British government have a second referendum and the majority, then the initial deci- can progress at this time. This let the people once again desion to leave the EU is not demo- would, however, need to happen cide whether they want to stay in cratic, as only 52% of 70% of the in a very short period of time, as the European Union or exit into population voted to leave, mean- a no-deal Brexit is the default op- oblivion. Not only is it the most ing that the majority of the popu- tion if the British government can- democratic option—it simply lation did not consent. However, not reach a deal by April 12th. makes the most sense.☐ 27

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THE CASE AGAINST A SECOND BREXIT REFERENDUM Jasleen Chaggar In the Fourth Century court of King Dionysus, the sycophantic courtier, Damocles, couldn’t believe his luck. His latest bout of flattery had won him a tantalizing proposition: swap places with the King and occupy his throne for the day. As Damocles was showered with the trappings of luxury and wealth, he happened to glance above his head, only to see a sword hanging by a single strand of horsehair.

British Prime Minister Theresa May must have felt a similar sense of mortal peril this week as she sat in the House of Commons to deliver her latest news of the Brexit extension. With each delay, Damocles’ sword hangs heavier still, as Brussels can exact more concessions from Britain. Having seen her battered deal rejected by Parliament three times already, the tired leader reached across the political aisle to see if she could have better luck by finding a compromise with her Labour opposition. Yet, with no clear consensus on how to solve the problems of the Irish backstop, and an almost universal hatred of May’s deal, it seems as if the UK has reached an 28

impasse.

In these dire straits, there seems to be only one solution remaining: put the decision to the British public. Hold a second referendum and let the people decide.

Indeed, calls for a “People’s Vote” have won support from both prominent politicians and members of the public, hundreds of thousand of whom marched last month in support of the campaign. Their argument is based on the notion that Brexit is no longer the “will of the people,” and current statistics show that they might be right. Today, 41% of Brits would vote ‘Remain,’ 35% would vote ‘Leave,’ and 24% would be ‘Undecided.’

With almost a quarter of the electorate still undecided, how can we be sure that a second referendum would provide the clear majority the government would need to backtrack Brexit? The widespread uncer-

tainty among the public suggests that people have not necessarily changed their minds about leaving Europe, but are instead reacting to the chaos of our government’s inertia with fear.

The “People’s Vote” camp also contends that the first referendum was decided by a campaign of misinformation and outright lies. This alone, they argue, justifies a second vote, which would enable people to make an

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW // SUMMER 2019 // 29 informed decision. Indeed, faced with a similar situation of voter misinformation, Switzerland recently decided to re-run a nationwide referendum.

However, the tight October 31st deadline would make it almost impossible to ensure that every voter would have the time to make an informed decision.

Moreover, separating the facts of Brexit from the hyperbole would require the wisdom of Solomon.

In reality, no one knows in concrete terms how a post-Brexit world would look, so a second referendum would be based on projections and conjecture. What is more, the argument belies the fact that people did not necessarily vote for Brexit based upon the veracity of the statistics used in the campaign. Central to the “Take Back Control” message of

the Brexiteers was its rejection of cosmopolitanism and its reassertion of sovereignty. It is not certain that a second vote, based upon facts rather than lies, would not still be subject to the same deeply nationalistic rhetoric as the first.

The most compelling case against a “People’s Vote,” however, is that referendums should not dictate public policy. The decision to leave or remain should never have been put to the British public in 2016, and we should not try to fix our mistake by putting it back to the people today.

In his account of the Fifth Century Peloponnesian War, Thucydides provides the classic example of democracy in action.

Having defeated an uprising of their colony, the Athenian people must decide whether to punish the Mytleans or exercise clemency. Hearing the arguments of both sides, the Athenians initially choose to make an example of the rebels. Yet, after more debate, they reverse their decision and vote to show mercy on the insurgents.

In their exercise of restraint and their collective decision-making, the Athenians stake their claim as the forebearers of democracy. Yet, we no longer live in small city-states dealing with yes or no answers. We live in complex societies, Rachel Barkin where policy solutions

are no longer binary. The “will of the people” is too nebulous a concept when we have such varied views. Referendums cannot reflect nuance; they simply reflect a majority, and in a society which is so divided, one group will inevitably lose out. Instead, we elect representatives who reflect our interests and who should be able to work together to create the best solutions available.

The democracy of the Athenian State demanded that its citizens were not only voters, but also legislators. In contrast, no one expects the British public to provide the solution for Brexit. In 1955, Churchill argued that the first duty of a Member of Parliament is the “honor and safety of Great Britain,” the second to his constituents, and third to his party. Thus, the job falls to the politicians who we elected to steer the course for the country’s future.

If they are wholeheartedly sure that Brexit is a horrible nightmare with unalterable consequences, let our MPs have the courage to stand up and say it themselves.

As Damocles swiftly learnt, the privilege of power is balanced by the burden of responsibility.

And thus the politicians, and not the people, must bear the responsibility for Brexit. The “will of the people” will not be reinforced by holding another referendum, as it would be based no more upon reason or facts than the first. In our democracy, the “will of the people” is expressed in who we choose to elect, and it is high time that they fulfill their duties and work together in the interests of us all.☐

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THE ARAB STORYTELLER Film and censorship in the Middle East.

Raya Tarawneh Capernaum tells the story of a Lebanese street boy who sues his parents for the crime of giving him life. It is the first-ever film directed by an Arab female to be shortlisted for the Oscars, receiving a fifteen minute standing ovation at the Cannes Film Festival earlier last year.

The success of Capernaum is important in a region with an unquenchable thirst for storytelling, and yet, paradoxically, a lagging film industry; a region where there is an abundance of creativity –of storytellers, filmmakers– coupled with an overt

lack of outlets for that creativity to materialize. Despite its success, Capernaum is emblematic of this reality. Nadine Labaki received very little funding for her film. She and her husband, Khaled Mouzanar, who produced the film, had to pull some strings just to see their project come to life, mortgaging their house and delaying payment for their son’s tuition.

This imbalance of abundant talent and yet such little catering for that talent is manifested in both a lack of funding, as with Labaki, and in censorship.

Lebanese director Ziad Doueiri is one example of the latter. His film The Insult was nominated

for an Oscar for best foreign language film in 2017. Yet upon his arrival home to Lebanon, Doueiri was detained and accused of treason because parts of his 2012 film The Attack were filmed in Israel, violating Lebanese law. While the film did manage to air in Lebanese cinemas in 2012, it was eventually boycotted by Lebanon, along with many other Arab League members due to its engagement with, and perhaps normalization of, Israel. Doueiri relocated his movie to Paris.

What Lebanon did was essentially export its own talent. Ziad Doueiri’s work received worldwide recognition, despite his

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COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW // SUMMER 2019 // 31 own government’s attempts to undermine him.

Jordanian filmmaker Mahmoud Massad was subjected to a similar degree of scrutiny during the release of his 2017 film Blessed Benefit. The Royal Film Commission denied Massad permission to release the film locally due to its provocative content and so-called misrepresentation of the Jordanian government. Not only did the Royal Film Commission initially grant Massad permission to film in 2014, it also funded his project and hosted a screening of it before announcing this decision. The problem arose in the ambiguity of the criteria with which the Royal Film Commission assesses films, parts of which stipulate that “…material must not include content that provokes civil strife, promotes racism or sectarianism or that could destabilize the security and safety of the country.”

These are vague standards that can be manipulated to justify the censorship of any film. What exactly constitutes material that could destabilize the country, and how does one evaluate that?

The omnipresent element of uncertainty that goes into the creation of such projects can be discouraging. The Royal Film Commission can make or break a film, and it is beyond frustrating for creators like Massad to dedicate themselves to a project only to have it disintegrate.

That said, the amount of work that goes into the creation of such films may not necessarily

pay off in the way that the creator had envisioned.

Although Blessed Benefit was selected for a Cannes Film Festival program and received the Abu Dhabi Film Commission Shasha Grant, Massad’s main goal was “to make a film for Jordanians.” The banning of his film directly precludes that.

In an interview at the Toronto Film Festival, Massad addressed the current state of the film industry in the Arab world, stating, “I believe it’s only getting harder to make films in Jordan and the Arab world even if we win ten Oscar awards. Even Arab funding is shrinking day by day and only a handful remain functioning and it’s only getting tougher to tell our stories.”

Ten Oscar awards will most certainly not fix the problem at hand. It is deep-set. This difficulty in telling stories is in large part due to the inability of Arab states to fully support the film industry while maintaining the interests of their regimes. Censor-

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ship, in any context, will persist as long as people have things to say that those in power do not want to hear– it is a means of turning a blind eye. This is no less true of the creative community; filmmakers are not unlike journalists or political activists in that regard.

Arab countries grossly underestimate how important it is for filmmakers to be able to tell their own stories; not only is it liberating, it is absolutely necessary. Stories about the Arab world need to come from the Arab world– no one is more entitled to that right. If Arabs don’t write their own stories, then who will?☐ 31

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WHO’S GOT THE POWER? Celine Bacha The power-sharing system in Lebanon was intended to be a sort of band-aid fix: it addressed the need to prevent conflict between different sects, as well as the need to actualize a system of governance. By definition, a band-aid fix is supposed to be a temporary palliative. But, in Lebanon, it was never supplanted by a more comprehensive solution.

And the very problem with this kind of ‘band-aid fix’ is that it does not solve any structural problems: it treats symptoms, rather than the disease itself. As a result, the disease deepens its hold, and the very symptoms— that were supposed to be mitigated— are heightened.

The Constitution in Lebanon ‘addresses’ tension along sectarian lines by dividing power between three predominant, intermittently quarreling sects: Christian Maronite, Sunni, and Shi’a. It effectively empowers elites from these previously warring sects, and as such it may appear problematic. But one may posit that perhaps this is a worthwhile price to pay for peace. Indeed, there is over a millennium of philosophy that defends aristocratic rule: why does it matter who is in power, so long as tensions are subdued and the state’s operations are well-run?

However, elites having a constitutionally-warranted grasp over their communities means that they have 32

incentive to exploit and perpetuate the very tensions that lead to the system’s creation in the first place. Elites surpass these differences horizontally, only to exploit them vertically, as it is this very sectarianism that sustains their power; and they use it to exact privileges for themselves and for their cronies, rather than as a platform to secure the interests for their respective groups.

Because these groups are defined by sect, they have an ascriptive membership from which people cannot defect. Therefore, the public is a captive audience within a system that serves its leaders more than its people.

The power-sharing system created a channel through which corruption became not just a norm, but a necessary and sufficient condition in order to succeed in Lebanese politics. Although one should question the ethics behind power-sharing, elitism, and clientelism— the pressing issue at hand is that these corrupting structures have made it to so that the country finds itself in a Sisyphean economic standstill.

Indeed, the Lebanese economy is characterized by a vicious cycle that is both laborious and futile. The government’s inability (or unwillingness) to reform may deny Lebanon access to loans pledged at an economic conference (CEDRE) held in Paris last April to assist Lebanon, with a condition that Lebanon reduces the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio by 1% annually

over the next five years. And yet, the fiscal deficit has only risen.

The defunct energy sector exposes the perfect cycle of corruption that brings Lebanon to what seems like complete self-sabotage.

On one hand, a major problem is that the production costs of the state’s power company, Electricite du Liban, is that productions costs exceed revenues from consumers.

According to the National Electricity Strategy Plan of 2010, the price represented on average only 55% of the production cost per kilowatt hour, which bears the question: why would the state allow such a deficit?

In order to understand why, it must first be understood how this deficit is sustained: The losses have been shouldered by the state through subsidies, but the subsidies vary per region, and regions are largely ethnically homogenous.

The crux of the issue here is that the segment of the population that is most-well off and uses the most electricity benefits the most from these subsidies, whereas those in the peripheries use less and consequently pay more. This discrepancy is representative of a system that props those at the top at the detriment of the rest of the population and the functioning of the state as a whole. And so, corruption and clientelism, which have lead to the exemptions of some regions and influential groups from the ‘pow-

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er bill,’ can be partially blamed for EDL’s financial deficit.

Militias, such as Amal and Hezbollah, have taken advantage of the vacuum in the neglected peripheries by providing resources such as electricity: they exchange services, such as electricity, for the support of the individuals they serve. Thus, by engaging in the kind of corruption that created this vacuum, politicians essentially invited the control of groups who exacerbate tensions that the power-sharing system was intended to subvert.

Further, these groups use informal channels in order to supply power: generators and illegal connections, and they tamper with electricity meters— and informal means of gathering energy has led to the waste of 40% of generated power.

Thereby, not only do they contribute to the country’s divisions, but also they exacerbated the economic quagmire.

More recently, a political showdown regarding Lebanon’s power-grid demonstrates the linkage between corruption, sectarianism, and clientelism that underpins the entirety of the issue. When a Turkish company sent Lebanon a floating power-plant last September, offering three months of free electricity, Amal accused the Christian Free Patriotic Movement of using this ship to delay the construction of a new power plant in the south. Meanwhile, critics stated that Amal’s opposition stemmed from concern that the ship would affect the profits that they generate from their “ties” to generator operators.

Moreover, the government is working toward powering its grid with two more electricity barges,

which would cost 2.25 billion dollars and supply 825 megawatts. When it comes to the fiscal deficit, this initiative is analogous to quelling a fire with gasoline. For the same cost, they could build a 3 gigawatt solar plant that would last 25 years. So why has there been no reform to implement an initiative like this?

Elites see more to lose than they see to gain from reorganizing the electricity system: ELP has been attributed over 9% of public spending in the past 25 years, and investigations have revealed that most of this spending has gone toward buying fuel from firms tied to politicians. And so, for those in control, reform means losing the very channels of corruption through which they maintain their power.

Of course, the public deficit is not entirely attributable to the problems of the energy sector, but this sector alone makes up for $36 billion of an $80 billion public deficit, and it is clear that corruption is largely to blame. But as explained at the outset, this corruption is intrinsically linked to the makeup of the power-sharing system. Thus, going forward requires an understanding that political arrangements must serve as more than a band-aid fix, for it only aggravates the very symptoms it seeks to palliate.

If a complete overhaul of the system does not occur, it seems Lebanon is the state equivalent of Sisyphus: condemned to carry the weight of its leaders’ corruption, only to watch it crash down — over, and over again.☐

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