
4 minute read
Dave Maples: Thoughts from Dave
Dave Maples Executive Vice President


These past two years may be the most interesting and challenging years that I have observed in my 30 plus years in the association business. Hopefully 2021 will bring an end to some very challenging years. What are the prospects for 2022? The forces of supply and demand can not be over looked. If you follow the markets both have played an important role in what has taken place over the past year to six months and they will play a role in the outlook going forward. On the supply side, cattle numbers will be declining as low prices in our area, and low prices and drought in the west, have both led to herd liquidation over the past two years. When I talk to Kentucky Livestock Market operators and order buyers, they tell me that I will be shocked when I see the year end numbers with the amount of people that have exited the business. As I study the data it looks like through the end of October, beef cow slaughter was 10% higher than a year earlier. One report stated that the industry slaughtered the largest number of beef cows since 2011. Dairy cow slaughter is up 3% year-to-date while total cow slaughter through October posted a 6% increase from year-earlier and the highest since 1996. The other part of the breeding herd would be heifers. Heifer slaughter through the end of October was the highest since 2011. If the reports are right, reduced cattle numbers for 2022 and on into 2024 are evident. We could see cattle numbers as low as the 2015 numbers. Beef Demand - the outlook for prices next year will be highly dependent upon demand following this year’s surge as consumers satisfied their taste with beef. It takes a consumer willing and able to buy your beef. Demand has definitely increased and a great deal of credit goes to you, the American beef producer, because you’re producing a higher quality, more consistent product. The consumer is dealing with an inflation rate of 6% annualized increase, the highest in 30 years. Watching to see what the consumer chooses to spend their food dollars on will be the big question to be answered. Even if we assume that beef demand weakens, prices across the beef sector should still post notable gains during 2022. The support for this assumption comes from global beef demand as a key indicator in the equation. U.S. beef exports through September are up 21% from a year earlier with the value of fresh and frozen beef exports and variety meats posting a 40% increase over the same period a year earlier. The value of those U.S. beef export categories is over $7 billion! Japan accounted for 24% of those exports while China’s share grew from 2% for all of 2020 to 15% for January-September 2021. I was in Greeley, Colorado last month with the KCA leadership class. We stopped by one of Five Rivers’ massive feedlots and Jordan Levey informed the class that three days of production out of five was going to China. From a producer’s point of view that is massive. For a domestic U.S. consumer, beef prices will go higher. If you put it all together the industry is looking quite optimistic going into 2022. I am ready for some better times. One last comment. I hope you will take time to attend the KCA Convention January 13-14. There are some really top-level speakers on the agenda and this is a wonderful opportunity to network. REDHILL 176A AMBER 208C (#3521863)


At Red Hill Farms, we are extremely pleased Red Angus has a new MATERNAL Index, HERDBUILDER. This new index is closely aligned with our maternal selection goals – cows that breed regularly, calve easily and early in the breeding season, and wean a high percent of their body weight. In addition to this important index, we put extra emphasis on udders, feet and disposition. Profi tability starts with the cow!
Terminal Matters!
REDHILL 672X X004 231A (#2847534)
The SimGenetics bulls at Red Hill are selected to add payweight in all phases of production – weaning, yearling and carcass. As a bonus, these bulls are selected for KY-31 fescue adaptability, slick hair, good feet and remarkably calm dispositions. These bulls are ideal for mating to British-based cows to produce calves with added hybrid vigor, feedlot demand and consumer acceptance. 231A, along with other Red Hill sires, have proven track records of adding value in all segments of the beef business!
Visit www.RedHillFarms.net for information about our sale and breeding program.
XVIIMORE THAN MORE THAN A BULL SALE A BULL SALE
17th Annual Sale Saturday, March 19, 2022 Saturday, March 19, 2022
1 p.m. CDT • At the Farm 80 Red Angus, SimAngus™ , Selling:
Charolais and Cross-Ty Bulls
Bart, Sarah & Ty Jones (615) 666-3098
466 Red Hill Road • Lafayette, TN 37083 mail@redhillfarms.net Gordon & Susan Jones (270) 991-2663