Shrinking Cattle Herd in Kentucky

Ryan Quarles Commissioner of Agriculture

Fi y-six years ago, Lyndon Johnson was president, the best-selling album was e Beatles’ “Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band,” and a gallon of gas cost 33 cents. 1967 was also the last time the number of beef cows in Kentucky was as low as it is now. Kentucky’s beef cow inventory was estimated at 895,000 head on Jan. 1, 2023, according to the Kentucky Field O ce of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

e drop in numbers follows a national trend as NASS estimates a 3.5-percent reduction nationally in beef cattle inventory to 28.9 million head. at’s the lowest total in 61 years – since John F. Kennedy was president, the “West Side Story” soundtrack was the best-selling album, and gas cost 31 cents, all in 1962.

Across the nation, all cattle and calves as of Jan. 1 totaled 89.3 million head, 3 percent below the 92.1 million head just a year prior, according to NASS. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 38.3 million head, were 3 percent below the 39.4 million head at the start of 2022. e 2022 calf crop was estimated at 34.5 million head, down 2 percent from the previous year. e Kentucky cattle and calf inventory on Jan. 1 was estimated at 1.93 million head, 100,000 fewer than last year, according to NASS. Cows and heifers that have calved were estimated at 940,000 head, down 70,000. e 2022 calf crop was estimated at 920,000 head, down 60,000. Despite the drop in numbers, cattle are still an important livestock to Kentucky. e commonwealth ranks 14th nationally for cattle inventory and remains the state with the largest number of beef cattle east of the Mississippi River.

Kenny Burdine, agricultural economist for the University of Kentucky College of Agriculture, Food and Environment, has been following the situation closely. He attributed the drop in our cattle numbers to “a combination of dry weather, high input costs, and strong cull-cow prices.”

Kentucky producers also dealt with extreme weather events such as tornadoes in western Kentucky in late 2021 and ooding in eastern e silver lining in a lower cattle inventory is it may result in higher sale prices for Kentucky cattle producers.

Kentucky last summer. Burdine called the weather “a perfect storm” with more than half of the state mired in a moderate drought last fall and far western Kentucky baking in a severe drought.

Dry conditions forced cattle producers to start feeding hay a lot earlier than usual, leading to tighter hay supplies and higher winterfeeding costs for cow-calf producers. Winter feed is the largest expense for most cow-calf operations, and most years, producers can buy hay for $60-$80 per ton, according to Burdine. But he added that recent hay auctions in Kentucky have seen the same quality hay selling for $100 per ton or more.

Burdine said those higher costs result in a signi cant increase in daily feeding costs, causing some producers to reduce their numbers. Cattle markets have been mixed but have been trending stronger, which he expects will continue into the spring for calf and feeder markets.