Conjuntura CNseg Nº37 - versão em inglês

Publication of the National Confederation of Insurance Companies

Year 4 • No 37 • February 2021

CNseg

Conjuncture DATABASE: SUSEP - DECEMBER 2020 ANS - SEPTEMBER 2020

Editor’s Note Brazilian Economy Insurance Industry Performance Statistical Summary For the conversion of values from Real to Dollars (or to another currency), it is recommended to use the average of the exchange rates of the relevant period.

Examples:

Glossary

1. Market premium (w/o Health and DPVAT) in 2019 = BRL 270.2 billion BRL/USD Rate - monthly average (jan/19 to dec/19) = BRL 3.94 Result: Market premium (w/o Health and DPVAT) in 2019 = USD 68.5 billion 2. Market premium (w/o Health and DPVAT) in 2020 = BRL 273.7 billion BRL/USD Rate - monthly average (jan/20 to dec/20) = BRL 5.24 Result: Market premium (w/o Health and DPVAT) in 2020 = USD 52.2 billion

National Confederation of Insurance Companies YEARS

SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION ................................................... 3

EDITOR’S NOTE ...................................................

4

BRAZILIAN ECONOMY ........................................ 8

INSURANCE INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE ............ 13

STATISTICAL SUMMARY ..................................... 17 GLOSSARY ........................................................... 23

2

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

INTRODUCTION CNseg The National Confederation of Insurance Companies - CNseg (Confederação Nacional das Seguradoras) is a civil association, operating nationwide, which gathers the Federations that represent the major companies in the industry of insurance, Private Complementary Open and Life Insurance, Supplementary Health, and Capitalization.

CNseg’s mission is to contribute to the development of the private insurance system, represent its members and disseminate the insurance culture, contributing to the country’s progress.

CNseg Conjuncture (Conjuntura CNseg) is a monthly analysis of the state of the Damage and Liability Insurance, Personal Coverage, Supplementary Health, and Capitalization segments, with the objective of examining economic, political, and social aspects that may have an influence on the Brazilian insurance market. In reference to months of the closing of the quarter, this publication also includes the Highlights of the Segments, an update of the Revenue Projections, the Statistical Information Boxes, the Legal and Regulatory Information Boxes, and the follow-up of the Academic Production regarding Insurance.

National Confederation of Insurance Companies YEARS

National Federation of General Insurance

The National Private and Life Pension Federation

National Federation of Supplementary Health Care

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

National Federation of Capitalization

3

SUMMARY

EDITOR’S NOTE

EDITORIAL After closing the 2020 data, overall insurance revenue grew by 1.3%. The positive contribution came from the Damages and Liabilities segment (6.0%). The revenue of the People segment (Life and Pension) remained with the same amount as in 2019 and the Capitalization Securities segment reduced by 4.1%. The guarantees for the risks transferred to the sector - the technical provisions - reached the historic level of BRL 1.202 trillion.

Marcio Serôa de Araujo Coriolano – CNseg’s Chairman

General Evaluation: The 2020 closing data evidence a heterogeneous behavior in the insurance industry, reflecting the diverse effects of the epidemiological and economic crisis on customer and consumer preferences for different products and services. The total revenue was BRL 273.7 billion, not including health and DPVAT (Motor Third Party Liability RC).

conditions observed in 2019, when the Conjuncture Publishing CNseg No 16 mentioned that “... The background is the population’s growing preference for risk protection, the increasing confidence of businesses and families in insurance companies, technological advances that allow for fast innovation in products and services, and increased competition within the industry.”

This sectorial performance, although having results lower than the historical average of the first decade of the millennium, it was above the other sectors of the business activity - industrial, commercial, and services - except the agribusiness sector. The mobility crisis caused by the pandemic has hit the insurance industry hard, although the precautionary effect against the coronavirus risk has aroused greater interest in lines with coverage directly relating to protection in times of mobility crisis, such as Property, Housing, Credit, and Surety, Liability, Rural, Marine, and Aviation, and Life Risk. Other lines of business, such as Automobiles, Transportation, Extended Warranty, and Accumulation Plans, had their performance reversed due to the economic crisis that reduced the volume of productive activities, increased the unemployment rate, and destabilized the capital market with strong asset volatility.

The decisive contribution of the insurance industry to the protection of incomes and assets threatened by the drop in average employment income, unemployment at high levels, and the stagnation of output in large segments of the productive sector was important in 2020. The industry has fulfilled its mission of unburdening government spending to support society.

Showed the capacity of the insurance activity to articulate technology at its disposal to mitigate the population’s lack of mobility. 2020 then repeated the

Scenarios: Looking ahead to 2021, the scenarios still do not allow greater expectations regarding the evolution of insurance. The maintenance of the

SUMMARY

4

In this ongoing context with few signs of economic recovery, the search for protection against major misfortunes has leveraged several insurance sectors.

The technical provisions that guarantee the system’s risks reached the unprecedented figure of BRL 1.202 trillion, an increase of 7.5%, much higher than the growth in premiums, of 1.3%. These assets return to the country as ballast for financing and payment of the public debt.

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

EDITOR’S NOTE

economic fundamentals - notably controlled inflation and fixed interest rate - seems to herald greater diversification of demand for insurance, although stricter projections depend on the success of the vaccination program, the resumption of reforms in the National Congress, the equating of the spending cap with the need for income support programs for the poor, and political stability in a pre-election year.

More specifically, the scenario this year shall deeply depend on the size of the GDP growth rate to make room for the recovery of insurance lines dependent on industrial, agricultural, and commercial production, such as large property risks. And it shall also depend on the increase in personal income and employment, which shall be driven by the demand for basic life, pension, supplementary health, and capitalization products.

A month compared to the previous month: Summarizing the insurance performance with the December 2020 data that has just been released, in the comparison between the month and the previous month, December had a strong growth when compared to November, at 34.8% without health-care and DPVAT. The lines of business that grew by more than double digits were Accumulation Plans, with 69.2%, followed by Third-Party Liability (43.1%), Extended Warranty (28.6%), Credit and Warranties (23.8%), Transportation (17.8%), and Automobile (17.5%).

A month compared to the same month in the previous year: Comparing December (a revenue of BRL 30.8 billion) to the same month in the previous year, which mitigates seasonality, the progress was significant, also in double figures (15.4%). The branches with the highest sectorial density in full revenue should be highlighted. To wit, i) Accumulation VGBL (Free Benefit Generating Plan) and PGBL (Free Life Benefit Generating Plan) Plans: BRL 17.0 billion in the month and growth of 24.1%; ii) Risk Life Plans: BRL 4.2 billion in the month and growth of 10.4%; iii) Automobile: BRL 3.5 billion in the month and growth of 6.6%;

iv) Property: BRL 1.3 billion in the month and growth of 8.5%; v) Credit and Warranties: BRL 509.0 million in the month and growth of 42.4%; and vi) Rural: BRL 371.8 billion in the month and growth of 7.9%; Yearly comparison: In the most important segment for comparative purposes, annual period 2020 compared to 2019 - the dynamic segment of the industry was Damages and Liabilities, which had an increase in the revenue of 6.0%, while the Personal segment maintained its revenues at the same level, and Capitalization Securities decreased by 4.1%. The following are the highest and lowest growth rates: • • • • • • • • •

Maritime and Aeronautical: 44.0% Rural: 29.5% Liability: 22.8% Credit and Warranties: 17.8% Property: 10.2% Extended Warranty: (6.3%) Capitalization: (4.1%) Automobile: (2.1%) Accumulation Plans: (1. 4%)

The table at the end of this Publishing provides the rates of change for each insurance line, grouped according to their segments. The rates are those observed compared to the previous month, the same month a year earlier, accumulated in the year, and, finally, 12 moving months to the previous month.

The following graph evidences the close relationship of economic activity in general with the performance of the Insurance Sector. However, the graph evidence that the most recent data, including for December, point to a better relative recovery of the insurance sector.

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

5

SUMMARY

EDITOR’S NOTE

GROWTH IN THE MOVING QUARTER WHEN COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR IN THE ACTUAL REVENUE OF THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY CRESCIMENTO NO TRIMESTRE MÓVEL CONTRA O MESMO PERÍODO DO ANO ANTERIOR DA ARRECADAÇÃO REAL DO SETOR CRESCIMENTO NO TRIMESTRE MÓVEL CONTRA O MESMO PERÍODO DO ANO ANTERIOR DA ARRECADAÇÃO REAL DO SETOR SEGURADOR (SEM DPVAT, PRODUTOS DE ACUMULAÇÃO E CAPITALIZAÇÃO) E DO IBC‐BR SEGURADOR (SEM DPVAT, PRODUTOS DE ACUMULAÇÃO E CAPITALIZAÇÃO) E DO IBC‐BR

10% 10% 8% 8%

2% 2%

6% 6%

0% 0%

2% 2%

IBC‐Br IBC-Br

‐4% ‐4%

0% 0%

‐6% ‐6%

‐2% ‐2%

‐8% ‐8%

‐4% ‐4%

‐10%‐10%

‐6% ‐6%

Insurance Industry Setor Segurador Setor Segurador

Source: SUSEP and BCB Fontes: SUSEP e BCB Fontes: SUSEP e BCB

dez/20

dec/20 dez/20 nov/20

oct/20 out/20 set/20 nov/20 nov/20 out/20

jul/20

jul/20 jun/20 aug/20 ago/20 jul/20 sep/20 set/20 ago/20

may/20 mai/20 abr/20 jun/20 jun/20 mai/20

mar/20 mar/20 fev/20 apr/20 abr/20 mar/20

jan/20 jan/20 dez/19 feb/20 fev/20 jan/20

oct/19

out/19 set/19 nov/19 nov/19 out/19 dec/19 dez/19 nov/19

may/19 mai/19 abr/19 jun/19 jun/19 mai/19

jan/19 jan/19 dez/18 feb/19 fev/19 jan/19

oct/18 out/18 set/18 nov/18 nov/18 out/18 dec/18 dez/18 nov/18

aug/18 ago/18 jul/18 sep/18 set/18 ago/18

jun/18 jun/18 mai/18 jul/18 jul/18 jun/18

jul/19 jul/19 jun/19 aug/19 ago/19 jul/19 sep/19 set/19 ago/19

‐14%‐14% mar/19 mar/19 fev/19 apr/19 abr/19 mar/19

‐10%‐10% apr/18 abr/18 mar/18 may/18 mai/18 abr/18

‐12%‐12%

feb/18 fev/18 jan/18 mar/18 mar/18 fev/18

‐8% ‐8%

jan/18 jan/18

IBC‐Br

‐2% ‐2%

Setor segurador

Setor segurador Insurance industry

4% 4%

IBC-Br IBC‐brIBC‐br

The chart below clearly demonstrates the uneven trajectory of progression behavior of insurance industries on a 12-moving month basis over the period ending in December 2020 considering the first impact of the pandemic on the government’s compensatory policies and preferences for insurance protection.

NOMINAL VARIATION OF THE REVENUE (12 moving months) Variação Nominal da Arrecadação - 12 meses móveis

18.7% 18,7%

Setor Segurador (sem DPV Saúde)

dor (sem DPVAT e 12,5% 12.5%

12.4% 12,4% 9.8% 9,8%

ponsabilidades (sem 4.8% 4,8%

Pessoas - Planos cadação - 12 meses móveis

8.9% 8,9% 6.1% 6,1% 3.9% 3,9%

4.0% 4,0%

3.4% 3,4%

4,0%

4,6%

3,0% 2,7% 2,5% Danos e Responsabilidade DPVAT)

3,4%

Setor Segurador (sem DPVAT e as of mar-20 / as of mar-19 as of jun-20 / as of jun-19 Saúde) Cobertura de Pessoas - Pla Setor Segurador (sem DPVAT e 6,0% 6.0% 12,7% 4.6% 4,6% Risco Saúde) e Responsabilidades Danos (sem 3,7% 3.7% 3.4% até mar-20 /2.7% 3,4% 3.0% até jun-20 / até jun-19 até mar-19 3,0% 2.5% 2,7% até set-20 / até set-19 2,5% 1.3% DPVAT)1,3% -1.3% -4.1% 12,7% 9,9% Cobertura de Pessoas - Pla Danos e Responsabilidades (sem Fontes: SES (SUSEP) - Extraído em 09/02/2021 -1,3% 9,0% Acumulação DPVAT) as deof Pessoas - Planos de Setor Segurador (sem DPVAT e Cobertura as of sep-20 / as of sep-19 dec-20 / as of dec-19 -4,1% 9,9% Risco Saúde) 9,0% Insurance Industry (without DPVAT Capitalization Personal Coverage Risk 5,5% Capitalização de -Pessoas Planos Setor Segurador (sem e Cobertura atéPlans dez-20 / até dez-19 de até set-20 / atéDPVAT set-19 and Supplementary Health Care) Source: SES (SUSEP) 12,7% Personal Coverage Accumulation Plans Risco Damage and Liabilities (without DPVAT)(semCobertura Saúde) de -Pessoas - Planos de Danos e Responsabilidades Extracted on 02/09/2021 5,5% Acumulação DPVAT) 10,4% 12,7% 9,9%de - Planos Danos e Responsabilidades (semCobertura de Pessoas 9,0% SUMMARY CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | N 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

Acumulação DPVAT) de Pessoas6 - Planos 8,2% Cobertura deCapitalização 10,4% 9,9% Risco 9,0%

Pessoas - Planos ão

19

4% 4%

Variaç Variaç

O

EDITOR’S NOTE

REVENUE – STATISTICAL SUMMARY (BASIS: DECEMBER/2020) Nominal Variation (%) Segment

Damages and Liabilities (without DPVAT) Automobile

Amount (in billions of BRL)

Dec-20 / Nov-20

Dec-20 / Dec-19

Accumulated (as of Dec-20 / as of Dec-19)

12 moving months (as of Nov-20 / as of Nov-19)

Dec-20

Accumulated as of Dec-20

12 months as of Dec-20

10.2%

9.9%

6.0%

5.8%

7,270.24

78,327.40

78,327.40 35,258.70

17.5%

6.6%

-2.1%

-2.5%

3,527.84

35,258.70

Personal Passengers Accidents

20.4%

11.8%

4.3%

3.9%

68.84

657.73

657.73

Hull

17.8%

3.9%

-5.4%

-5.9%

2,256.68

22,821.93

22,821.93

Optional Civil Liability

14.0%

5.4%

-0.6%

-0.8%

765.34

7,839.33

7,839.33

Other

22.0%

25.4%

16.6%

17.6%

436.98

3,939.71

3,939.71

Property

3.8%

8.5%

10.2%

9.6%

1,275.10

14,622.04

14,622.04

Massified

19.0%

23.1%

5.9%

4.3%

1,053.36

10,483.80

10,483.80

Comprehensive Residential

13.0%

21.7%

6.1%

4.9%

332.92

3,363.32

3,363.32

Comprehensive Condominium

7.2%

2.4%

0.9%

1.1%

39.01

462.44

462.44

Comprehensive Corporate

12.2%

14.4%

1.7%

0.5%

256.21

2,641.50

2,641.50

30.6%

32.7%

9.5%

6.9%

425.22

4,016.54

4,016.54

-35.9%

-34.4%

22.5%

25.8%

196.36

3,552.42

3,552.42

-30.6%

23.8%

22.9%

21.4%

25.38

585.82

585.82

Housing

0.1%

9.1%

7.9%

15.9%

391.84

4,510.45

4,510.45

Transportation

17.8%

-1.4%

-0.4%

1.2%

377.52

3,357.87

3,357.87

83.8%

12.1%

-2.3%

-4.4%

102.89

920.67

920.67

-13.9%

9.3%

16.7%

16.8%

75.74

659.25

659.25

12.7%

-10.3%

-4.6%

-0.6%

198.89

1,777.94

1,777.94

Other Large Risks Engineering Risk

Domestic Shippers International Shippers Carrier Credit and Warranty

23.8%

42.4%

17.8%

12.9%

509.04

5,309.64

5,309.64

Guarantee of Obligations

23.2%

30.1%

7.5%

6.5%

274.87

3,107.61

3,107.61

Other

24.6%

60.2%

36.1%

23.6%

234.18

2,202.03

2,202.03

28.6%

17.3%

-6.3%

-7.6%

389.35

3,045.88

3,045.88 2,591.91

Extended Warranty Civil Liability

43.1%

39.7%

22.8%

20.3%

319.03

2,591.91

D&O Civil Liability

163.0%

74.3%

52.4%

44.6%

187.51

919.62

919.62

Other

-13.3%

8.9%

11.0%

10.9%

131.53

1,672.29

1,672.29

Rural

-37.7%

7.9%

29.5%

29.9%

371.85

6,880.08

6,880.08

Maritime and Aeronautical

-13.7%

24.9%

44.0%

42.0%

77.46

1,190.51

1,190.51

Maritime

-10.6%

1.6%

34.9%

37.6%

40.79

498.48

498.48

Aeronautic

-16.9%

67.8%

51.3%

45.4%

36.67

692.03

692.03

9.7%

-51.9%

53.0%

52.0%

31.21

1,560.32

1,560.32

50.5%

20.7%

0.0%

-1.0%

21,500.04

172,457.52

172,457.52

Other Insurance Coverage Risk Plans

5.9%

10.4%

4.9%

4.7%

4,195.37

45,404.19

45,404.19

Life

19.0%

13.9%

11.2%

11.5%

2,002.31

19,967.45

19,967.45

Lender

-8.7%

6.0%

7.2%

8.1%

1,256.90

14,720.07

14,720.07

Travel

48.1%

-63.4%

-59.1%

-53.2%

19.63

241.85

241.85

Other

3.0%

14.3%

-4.8%

-7.1%

916.52

10,474.83

10,474.83

Communication Plan

69.2%

24.1%

-1.4%

-2.7%

17,005.73

123,761.08

123,761.08

VGBL Family

56.3%

29.2%

-1.8%

-3.7%

14,418.87

112,707.10

112,707.10

PGBL Family

213.1%

2.0%

3.2%

8.2%

2,586.86

11,053.99

11,053.99

10.0%

-4.9%

-9.6%

-11.5%

298.94

3,292.24

3,292.24

3.4%

-9.8%

-4.1%

-1.2%

2,049.12

22,932.30

22,932.30

34.8%

15.4%

1.3%

0.8%

30,819.40

273,717.22

273,717.22

Traditional Plans Capitalization Insurance Industry (without Health Care, without DPVAT)

Note: Amounts regarding endowment branches were included in the risk plans part regardless of their mixed risk and accumulation characteristics.

For the conversion of values from Real to Dollars (or to another currency), it is recommended to use the average of the exchange rates of the relevant period.

Examples: 1. Market premium (w/o Health and DPVAT) in 2019 = BRL 270.2 billion BRL/USD Rate - monthly average (jan/19 to dec/19) = BRL 3.94 Result: Market premium (w/o Health and DPVAT) in 2019 = USD 68.5 billion 2. Market premium (w/o Health and DPVAT) in 2020 = BRL 273.7 billion BRL/USD Rate - monthly average (jan/20 to dec/20) = BRL 5.24 Result: Market premium (w/o Health and DPVAT) in 2020 = USD 52.2 billion Source: SES (SUSEP) - Extracted on 02/09/2021

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

7

SUMMARY

BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

BRAZILIAN ECONOMY Joint Analysis For the Brazilian economy, the turn of the year was marked by an early deceleration of the recovery that had been going since the middle of last year, after the unprecedented shock of the Covid-19 pandemic. Such a slowdown may regard two main factors: the resurgence of the pandemic, with a strong second wave hitting the country, especially after the holiday season and the withdrawal of many economic incentives implemented last year in response to the

emergency, and the most important of which was emergency aid.

The confidence indicators of the Brazilian economy released in recent weeks make it clear that the second wave of Covid-19 has significantly affected business and consumer expectations, with a fall in practically all indexes in January. A few experts are already projecting a drop in the first quarter’s GDP.

BRAZILIAN ECONOMY CONFIDENCE LEVELS - FGV NÍVEIS DE CONFIANÇA DA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA ‐ FGV (JAN / 20 = 100) (JAN/20 = 100)

110 100 90 80 70 60 50 jan/20 jan/20

fev/20 feb/20

mar/20

abr/20 apr/20

mai/20 may/20

jun/20 jun/20

jul/20

ago/20 aug/20

set/20 sep/20

out/20 oct/20

nov/20

C. of Industry

C. of Services

C. of Extended Retail

C. of Construction

C. Consumer

C. Business

Source: FGV

SUMMARY

8

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

dez/20 dec/20

jan/21

BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

On the international scenario, the month was one of relative optimism, associated with the advance in negotiations in the USA of the new incentive package from President Joe Biden’s administration of almost USD 2 trillion. Despite the concern with the dynamics of the pandemic in the short term, with the dissemination of more contagious strains of the virus in several countries and doubts regarding the efficacy of the vaccines available against them, vaccination, although at a slow pace, continues among the groups most at risk and inspires confidence that at least in the second half of the year some level of “normality” should have been reached. On the other hand, the expectation of continued strong incentives in the US reinforces the concern of some economists about what has been called “reflation”, a possible acceleration of the inflation rate in the US as a result of the unprecedented monetary and tax incentives that have been and continue to be implemented to contain the economic effects of the pandemic. This would strongly impact the scenarios for this year, which have considered low-interest rates for a long time in the USA. The most recent indications from the Fed, the American monetary authority, are along those lines. But this may change if the inflation rate rises again as a result of the tax incentives, which, in turn, are not likely to be taken away soon. Janet Yellen, the former Fed’s Chairwoman and current U.S. Treasury Secretary, recently stated that it was time to “act big” on tax policy in a near-zero interest rate scenario.

In Brazil, where the inflation scenario - even though it has had some relief with the disclosure of a lower IPCA for January than what was expected (0.25% for the month, 4.56% in 12 months) - has already been more comfortable, it may have relevant impacts on the expected path for basic interest rates, currently at their historical minimum le-

vel and still quite detached from long interest rates The chairman of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, has mentioned, even if indirectly, the risks of a stronger rise in interest rates by the Fed. He recalled that “when economies go into crisis, there is co-ordination between monetary and tax policies but the solution is usually messier.” It is already clear that the Selic rate should rise again this year, but there is still relevant uncertainty about how much.

It is worth remembering that the 12-month inflation rate is expected to remain high until the middle of the second half of the year, due to statistical effects associated with the sharp drop in rates in the first months of the pandemic, last year.

The heterogeneous nature of the economic shock caused by the pandemic has also manifested itself during the recovery. The industry, which had increased demand for its products during the months of isolation and may easily resume its activities with some degree of health security, has been showing a consistent recovery. Last year, the performance of the industry, as measured by PIM-PF, was a 4.5% fall but, since May, the industry records a positive variation on monthly production rates The retail industry, due to the displacement of expenses previously destined to services, after the “end of the line” reached in April, had intense increases, reaching the highest level since before the pandemic already between June and July. However, due to the reduction in emergency allowance, the increase in inflation, and the resumption of other activities, the retail has lost power: with November’s stability and the sharp drop in November’s data, the year’s profits were practically nullified. Services, the most important sector of the economy and the one that suffered the most from isolation measures, had its “bottom” in May and a slow recovery since then. In December, it slowed down early. These movements are indicated in the following chart:

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

9

SUMMARY

BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

IBGE ACTIVITY INDICATORS

dec/20

nov/20

oct/20

sep/20

aug/20

jul/20

jun/20

may/20

abr/20

mar/20

feb/20

jan/20

(JAN/20 = 100, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES)

Source: IBGE

Fonte: IBGE

Diante as adversidades da virada do ano, o resultado do IBC‐Br (Índice de Atividade do Banco Central), conhecido como uma proxy do PIB, teve um resultado surpreendentemente positivo.

In face ofO crescimento de 0,6% em dezembro levou o indicador a uma queda de 4,1% no ano, um the adversities of the turn of the year, the As provided in the following chart, prepared result of pouco mais suave do que o esperado e implica em um carregamento estatístico (isto é, a taxa the IBC-Br (Central Bank Activity Index based on metrics created under nine indicators, Índice dede crescimento no ano se o patamar de dezembro do ano anterior ficar inalterada) de fortes Atividade do Banco Central), known as a including school and workplace closures and traproxy for4,2%. the GDP, had a surprisingly positive result. vel bans, when the new coronavirus outbreak hit The 0.6% growth in December brought the indicaEurope the hardest, in February, the first contor to a 4.1% fall for the year, a little softer than tainment measures were taken in Brazil. Upon Apesar da grande incerteza, do início de ano mais fraco que o esperado e das chances não expected,desprezíveis de que a pandemia – além dos já conhecidos entraves ao crescimento – arrastem resulting in a statistical increase (i.e., the WHO’s declaration of a pandemic, in early Margrowth rate for the year if the December level of ch, isolation measures started and reached their a economia para um ano de crescimento baixo e em grande parte associado apenas ao the previous year remains the same) of a solid 4.2%. peak between April and July. The relaxation, carregamento estatístico, um cenário mais positivo é perfeitamente factível. Na política, a from August onwards, took place upon the deeleição de novas lideranças no Congresso Nacional – ao menos em teoria com maior Despite the great uncertainty, the year that started crease in cases and deaths but the second wave alinhamento ao Palácio do Planalto – foi vista como positiva, de maneira geral, e alguns sinais weaker than expected, and the considerable chanof the disease caused some restriction measures positivos, mais favoráveis ao mercado, já foram emitidos, como o encaminhamento da ce that the pandemic - in addition to the already to resume, from mid-November, and intensified autonomia operacional do Banco Central e do novo marco do câmbio. known growth barriers - shall drag the economy at the beginning of this year. Therefore, the deinto a year of low growth and, largely associated cision to extend the emergency allowance gaiComo mostra o gráfico a seguir, elaborado com uma medida criada com base em nove only with the statistical increase, a more positive ned more support and, according to the opinion indicadores, incluindo fechamentos de escolas e locais de trabalho e proibições de viagens, scenario is perfectly feasible. In politics, the elecof experts in public accounts, such measure shall quando a disseminação do novo coronavírus atingiu mais fortemente a Europa, em fevereiro, a tion of new leaders in the National Congress - at cost close to BRL 30 billion. Last year, the total primeiras medidas de contenção foram tomadas no Brasil. Com a decretação de pandemia least, in theory, with greater alignment with the spending on the emergency allowance was BRL pela OMS, no começo de março, as medidas de isolamento dispararam, atingindo seu máximo President’s office - was seen as positive in general, 293.1 billion, according to the most recent fiscal and someentre abril e julho. A flexibilização a partir de agosto coincidiu com a redução de casos e positive signals, more favorable to the monitoring report of the Independent Fiscal Insmortes, mas a segunda onda da doença provocou a retomada de algumas medidas de market, have already been issued, such as the protitution (Instituição Fiscal Independente - IFI) of gress of the Central Bank’s operational autonomy the Federal Senate. restrição a partir de meados de novembro e se intensificaram no início deste ano. Com isso, a decisão de prorrogar o auxílio emergencial ganhou força e, segundo estimativas de especialistas em contas públicas, tal medida custará algo próximo de R$ 30 bilhões. No ano passado, o gasto total com o auxílio emergencial ficou em R$ 293,1 bilhões, segundo o mais SUMMARY

10

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

BRAZIL: COVID-19 GOVERNMENT STRINGENCY INDEX BRASIL: ÍNDICE DE RESTRIÇÕES SOCIAIS ASSOCIADAS AO COMBATE À COVID-19 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

01/01/20 11/01/20 21/01/20 31/01/20 10/02/20 20/02/20 01/03/20 11/03/20 21/03/20 31/03/20 10/04/20 20/04/20 30/04/20 10/05/20 20/05/20 30/05/20 09/06/20 19/06/20 29/06/20 09/07/20 19/07/20 29/07/20 08/08/20 18/08/20 28/08/20 07/09/20 17/09/20 27/09/20 07/10/20 17/10/20 27/10/20 06/11/20 16/11/20 26/11/20 06/12/20 16/12/20 26/12/20 05/01/21 15/01/21 25/01/21

0

Source: Our World in Data - Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)

Even considering expenses significantly lower than before due to a greater restriction of the target public and a lower amount for the benefit, it shall not be possible to meet the established fiscal target and, therefore, some legal measures shall have to be prepared jointly by the Government and National Congress, in which the temporary resumption of the emergency allowance is compensated with the approval of measures toward fiscal rebalancing, as the case may be, for example, the so-called “triggers” Constitutional Amendment (PEC), which creates automatic mechanisms to restrict expenses by the Government, States, and Cities in case of failure to meet fiscal targets.

However, experts are warning more than ever that only the wide vaccination With a robust structure for mass vaccination - proven by some of the largest public immunization campaigns in the history of public health in the world – and two major reference centers for vaccine production, Fiocruz, and Butantan The popular clamor for vaccination creates some hope that even if only through popularity, politics shall do what is necessary and immunization shall progress sometime in the first semester, allowing a more consistent economic recovery in the second half of this year.

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

11

SUMMARY

BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

Monitoring of Economic Expectations

(cut-off date: 02/08/2021)

With the start of vaccination against Covid-19 in several countries and the expectations for continued economic incentives (at least in the central economies), expectations for the global economy are rising, even if marginally.

Despite the short-term difficulties, with new strains of the virus increasing contagion, the stricter travel restrictions, and some stricter isolation measures - in addition to the clear difficulties of implementing a mass vaccination simultaneously around the world - it is emblematic that the number of cases and deaths is gradually being replaced by the number of vaccinated individuals.

The main factors for the increase in the GDP growth projection for 2021 were the recent changes in the new leadership in the National Congress, supposedly more aligned with the President’s Office and, on the international scene, the advance in the negotiations of the new incentives package by the US government. However, it was a shy increase, from 3.41% to 3.47%, because of the relatively poor short-term data at the turn of the year, as mentioned above. It is always worth remembering that, despite that increase, much of the growth may be attributed to statistical increase and, therefore, it does not represent an exceptional performance before last year’s sharp decrease in the activity.

There is much discussion about the behavior of inflation throughout this year. For many, the economy’s pace of recovery is shy when compared to the idle capacity and, therefore, there is no room for inflation to remain high. For others, however, even a weak recovery may be enough for increases allocated last year (such as some prices of public goods and services or even health plans), higher commodity prices, and a currency depreciation (which led IGPs to exceed 20% last year) to put pressure on consumer inflation over the course of this year. Thus, the projections for the IPCA remain under control (i.e., below the target of 3.75% for this year) but have been increasing little by little, week after week. Last month, financial market economists raised their estimates for the IPCA this year from 3.43% to 3.60%. However, the recent increases in fuel prices shall certainly impact those projections.

With higher expected inflation, the projection for the Selic rate at the end of this year also went up in the last four weeks, from 3.25% to 3.50%.

Estimated values for 2020 Notes

Variable

Realized Realized in 2020 in 2021

Realized 12 months

Estimated values for 2021

Today

Last week

weeks

weeks

Beginning of the year

Today

Last week

weeks

weeks

Beginning of the year

02/05/21

01/29/21

01/08/21

11/06/20

01/03/20

02/05/21

01/29/21

01/08/21

11/06/20

01/03/20

5

GDP

-5.04%

-

-3.38%

-4.30%

-4.30%

-4.37%

-4.80%

2.30%

3.47%

3.50%

3.41%

3.31%

2.50%

2

Industrial Production (quantum)

-4.46%

-

-4.46%

--

-4.79%

-4.94%

-5.49%

2.19%

5.00%

5.02%

4.78%

4.00%

2.50%

5

Industry GDP

-5.09%

-

-3.55%

-3.78%

-3.78%

-3.90%

-4.30%

2.50%

4.24%

4.16%

4.05%

3.82%

2.90%

5

Services GDP

-5.26%

-

-3.48%

-4.80%

-4.80%

-4.86%

-5.40%

2.10%

3.21%

3.11%

3.28%

2.94%

2.50%

5

Agricultural GDP

2.44%

-

1.78%

2.34%

2.34%

2.34%

1.85%

3.00%

2.42%

2.58%

2.42%

2.50%

3.20%

2

IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index)

4.52%

-

4.52%

--

--

4.37%

3.20%

3.60%

3.60%

3.53%

3.34%

3.17%

3.75%

1

IGP-M

23.14%

2.58%

25.71%

--

--

--

20.47%

4.24%

6.65%

6.57%

4.60%

4.00%

1

SELIC

1.90%

1.90%

2.58%

--

--

--

2.00%

4.50%

3.50%

3.50%

3.25%

2.75%

6.50%

1

Foreign Exchange

5.20

5.48

5.34

5.45

4.09

5.01

5.01

5.00

5.20

4.00

2

63.02%

-

56.86%

63.75%

67.74%

58.08%

64.00%

64.45%

64.95%

70.00%

59.20%

-12.52

-

-12.52

-4.50

-4.00

-54.20

-19.00

-19.66

-16.00

-19.20

-60.30

43.23

-

43.23

57.90

38.20

55.00

55.00

55.00

55.00

35.60

2

Public Sector Net Debt (% of the Current Account (in billion USD) Trade Balance (in billion USD) Direct Investment in the Country (in billion USD)

!!!

4.34%

34.17

-

34.17

40.00

50.00

80.00

60.00

60.00

60.00

65.00

84.40

2

Administered Prices

2.61%

-

2.61%

2.70%

0.80%

4.00%

4.44%

4.44%

4.02%

4.07%

4.00%

2 2

--

--

--

--

Source: SGS (BCB) and SIDRA (IBGE). Cut-off date: 02/08/2021 Notes: 1) data as of January/21; 2) data as of December/20; 3) data as of September/20

SUMMARY

12

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

INSURANCE INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

INSURANCE INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

It is common sense that 2020 marked world history. The main character, a highly contagious virus, was responsible for bringing the world to a halt, resulting in the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring a pandemic in March. The main consequence was an unprecedented global economic and financial crisis, affecting all sectors of the economy. With the insurance industry, it could be no different, as it went through several challenges throughout the year, but it has shown itself to be solid and resilient in facing the crisis caused by the new coronavirus pandemic.

In the Brazilian scenario, insurance companies have also reinvented themselves and have been able to deliver good products to their clients. The results are starting to show and, with the release of the December data

by Susep, a better assessment of the impacts of the pandemic over the course of 2020 may be made. As seen in the following chart, in the 2nd quarter, the initial months of social isolation, mainly April and May, strongly and negatively impacted the entire insurance industry. As of the 3rd quarter, recovery began to occur, but the 4th quarter shows heterogeneity in the recovery of the different segments. Insurance industry moved almost BRL 274 billion in insurance premiums, pension plan contributions, and capitalization revenues, without considering the net consideration for Supplementary Health Insurance and DPVAT premiums. In the monthly performan-

ce, December recorded a strong result, with a volume of BRL 30.8 billion in revenues (excluding Health Care and DPVAT) and an advance of 15.4% compared to December 2019 - in the year, and it was only less than January’s result (17.6%).

By segment, let us emphasize the Personal Coverage segment which, in December, grew 20.7% (BRL 21.5 billion) compared to 2019 and managed to maintain practically the amount collected in 2019, year-to-date (BRL 172.4 billion), thus, recovering the losses that occurred during 2020, concentrated in the 2nd quarter. Damage and Liability insurances increased 9.9% (BRL 7.3 billion) compared to the same month of the previous year and ended in 2020 with a growth of 6.0% (BRL 78.3 billion) over 2019. Capitalization bonds, after an indication of recovery in the 3rd quarter, once again presented a retraction and, in December, decreased 9.8% (BRL 2.5 billion) regarding the performance assessed in December of the previous year. Year-to-date, sales totaled BRL 22.9 billion, a 4.1% decrease over the same period of the previous year.

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

13

SUMMARY

INSURANCE INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

Quarterly and cumulative 12-month variation 2019/2020

8.0%

10.2% 7.8% 4.2%

7.4%

-11.3% 7.7%

6.5%

6.0% 3.3%

3.2%

1.7%

0.8%

0.0%

1.3%

-4.1% -8.3%

-13.8% -16.5% -19.8%

Source: Susep

The Damage and Liability insurance segment maintained a positive trajectory in all quarters of the year. Auto insurance had a monthly increase for the fourth consecutive month. Comparing December 2020 and 2019, the volume of premiums increased by 6.6%, year-to-date, however, there is still a 2.1% decrease. The number of vehicle registrations reported by Fenabrave increased again in December, with more than 194,000 vehicles registered, surpassing the number of registrations in the months prior to the pandemic. In 2020, the accumulated volume of vehicles registered exceeds 1.6 million, however, the volume is still 29% less than the number of vehicles registered in the previous year.

SUMMARY

14

The set of Assets grew 8.5% in December regarding the same month of the previous year. In the year, it increased 10.2% (BRL 14.6 billion).

Set of assets, moved, in December, more than BRL 1 billion in premiums, representing a 23.1% increase regarding December of the last year.

In 2020, the amount of premium exceeds BRL 14.6 billion, which is 10.2% more than 2019. In Massified insurances, the home insurance had an increase in demand in the year of the pandemic and it has grown double-digits since August. The same month in the previous year, and, year-to-year, it increased 6.1%.

Housing insurance generally maintained steady growth in 2020 and accumulated a 7.9% year-

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

INSURANCE INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

ly growth regarding 2019. In December, it inrecorded in the same month of the previous creased 9.1% compared to 2019. The evolution year, a 4.8% decrease. of the revenue of the Housing insurance was Recovery for the fourth consecutive month and, higher than the variation of the average sale in December, it increased 17.3% compared to price of residential real estate properties assesthe same month, in 2019. However, in the annused by the FipeZap index, which ended the year al junho, entretanto, os resultados mensais result, it decreased 6.3% in premiums, reflecwith a nominal increase of 3.67%. sinais de retomada do fluxo de veículos a partir de tingde the2020, strong impactficou of the from April ainda se mantém abaixo dos de 2019. Em dezembro o índice em period 164 pontos The Transportation insurance, after three to July, months with material decrease. Histocontra 172 pontos registrados em no mesmo mês do ano anterior, recuo de 4,8%. months of positive results, presented a decrerically, the product has been highly correlated ase ofO Garantia Estendida mantém a trajetória de recuperação pelo quarto mês consecutivo e, em 1.4% in December regarding the same with sales of furniture and appliances disclosed month of the previous year. In 2020, the result by the IBGE’s Monthly Trade Survey (Pesquisa dezembro, avançou 17,3% sobre o mesmo mês de 2019. Entretanto, no resultado anual, há is slightly negative, of The ABCR index, which Mensal do Comércio - PMC) but, as seen in the tracksrecuo de 6,3% nos prêmios, refletindo o forte impacto do período de abril a julho, meses de the flow of light and heavy vehicles on chart below, the return of sales of these items quedas expressivas.

O produto guarda grande correlação as vendas Brazilian highways, began to show signshistoricamente of has been stronger than com the recovery ofde the Extended Warranty, which may be a repercussion a resumption in the flow of vehicles starting móveis e eletrodomésticos divulgadas pela Pesquisa Mensal do Comércio (PMC) do IBGE, mas of the falls in face-to-face sales that are extrein June, however, the monthly are still lower como pode ser observado pelo gráfico abaixo, o retorno das vendas destes itens tem sido mais mely important for the knowledge and clarifithan 2019. In December 2020, the index reforte do que a recuperação do Garantia Estendida, que pode ser reflexo das quedas nas mained at 164 points compared to 172 points cation of doubts by the clients on the insurance. vendas presenciais que são extremamente importantes para o conhecimento e esclarecimento de dúvidas por parte dos clientes em relação ao seguro.

(var. ac. em 12 meses)

25%

25%

20%

20%

15%

15%

5%

5%

0%

0%

PMC

10%

10%

‐5%

‐5%

Extended Warranty Garantia Estendida

sep/20 set/20

jan/20 jan/20

may/20 mai/20

sep/19 set/19

jan/19 jan/19

may/19 mai/19

sep/18 set/18

jan/18 jan/18

may/18 mai/18

sep/17 set/17

jan/17 jan/17

may/17 mai/17

sep/16 set/16

jan/16 jan/16

may/16 mai/16

jan/15 jan/15

may/15 mai/15

‐20%

sep/14 set/14

‐20%

jan/14 jan/14

‐15% may/14 mai/14

‐15% sep/13 set/13

‐10%

jan/13 jan/13

‐10%

may/13 mai/13

Garantia Estendida Extended Warranty

30%

sep/15 set/15

PMC - furniture and home appliances and Extended Warranty 12-month accumulated variation PMC ‐ móveis e eletrodomésticos e Garantia Estendida

PMC - Furniture and Home appliances PMC ‐ Móveis e Eletrodomésticos

Source: Susep and IBGE

Fontes: Susep e IBGE

O seguro Rural encerrou 2020 com arrecadação recorde de quase R$ 7 bilhões. O expressivo SUMMARY 15 CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021 desempenho em 2020 resultou em crescimento de 29,5% no ano em relação a 2019. Tal

INSURANCE INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The Rural insurance ended in 2020 with record revenue of almost BRL 7 billion. The significant performance in 2020 resulted in a growth of 29.5% in the year compared to 2019. Follows the good results of Brazilian agribusiness’ GDP. CNA (Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil - Confederação da Agricultura e Pecuária do Brasil) evidence a 2.37% advance in the GDP of agribusiness in November 2020, compared to November of the previous year.

In the 11-month period of 2020, it increased 19.66%. Cepea’s analysis states that the positive GDP result reflects the continued supply of the domestic market and the excellent performance of agribusiness in exports.

The Personal Coverage segment, as mentioned above, managed to recover the losses that occurred during 2020, ending the year with virtual stability. The Risk Plans, even with the negative performance of Travel insurance, ended the year with a 4.9% increase over the previous year and, in December, advanced its collection by 10.4% when compared to the same month of 2019. Life and Credit insurance were the great protagonists of this performance.

Accumulation Plans, which endured months of negative performance due to the decrease of workers’ income, ended the year with a decrease of 1.4% compared to the previous year.

However, it is worth noting that the December result was a positive surprise, increasing 24.1% compared to 2019.

In Supplementary Health, the National Agency of Supplementary Health (Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar - ANS) released the numbers of beneficiaries of health plans for the month of December 2020, ending the year with 74,614,676. In medical assistance plans, there were 47,564,363 beneficiaries and, in exclusive dental plans, there were 27,050,313.

ANS reported that, in health care, it was the highest number since January 2017, when 47,631,754 beneficiaries were registered. 2020 ended with a positive trend regarding the segment’s evolution, ratifying the signs noted since the second half of the year.

The insurance industry paid more than BRL 151 billion in claims, benefits, raffles, and refunds, an advance of 8.3% over the amount assessed in 2019, without considering Health Care and DPVAT. In Accumulation Plans, in Personal Coverage, redemptions grew 17% in the year, resulting in 24% less net funding in the previous year. In Damages and Liabilities, the sectors that paid the most claims in 2020 were: Maritime and Aeronautical (53.6%); Credit and Warranty (35.6%); Housing (32.3%); Rural (27.1%) and Transportation (22.7%). The segment’s loss ratio went from 42.6%, in 2019, to 41.5%, in 2020.

Capitalization Bonds, after signs of recovery in August and September, continue to show a decline in revenue volume. In December, it decreased 9.8%, ending the year with a 4.1% decrease in the volume of 2019.

SUMMARY

16

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

STATISTICAL SUMMARY

MARKET ANALYSIS

AnáliseAnálise Análise de Mercado dedeMercado Mercado | Capítulo | |Capítulo Capítulo 1 11

ANO 4 | NºANO 37ANO |4JANEIRO/2021 |4 Nº | Nº 37 37 | JANEIRO/2021 | JANEIRO/2021

STATISTICAL SUMMARY

Resumo Resumo Resumo Estatístico Estatístico Estatístico INSURANCE INDUSTRY (cut-off date: 02/09/21)

REVENUE ARRECADAÇÃO ARRECADAÇÃO ARRECADAÇÃO (R$ b ilh ões (R$ ) (BRL (R$ b ilh bBILLION) ilh ões ões ) )

1515

mar/19 jan/19 jan/19 jan/19 abr/19 fev/19 feb/19 fev/19 mai/19 mar/19 mar/19 mar/19 jun/19 abr/19 abr/19 abr/19 jul/19 mai/19 may/19 mai/19 ago/19 jun/19 jun/19 jun/19 set/19 jul/19 jul/19 jul/19 out/19 ago/19 aug/19 ago/19 nov/19 set/19 sep/19 set/19 dez/19 out/19 oct/19 out/19 jan/20 nov/19 nov/19 nov/19 fev/20 dez/19 dec/19 dez/19 mar/20 jan/20 jan/20 jan/20 abr/20 fev/20 fev/20 feb/20 mai/20 mar/20 mar/20 mar/20 jun/20 abr/20 abr/20 abr/20 jul/20 mai/20 mai/20 may/20 ago/20 jun/20 jun/20 jun/20 set/20 jul/20 jul/20 jul/20 out/20 ago/20 ago/20 aug/20 nov/20 set/20 set/20 sep/20 dez/20 out/20 out/20 oct/20 nov/20 nov/20 nov/20 dez/20 dez/20 dec/20

15

1818

fev/19

18

Saúde Suplementar

2323

Análise Análise de Mercado de Mercado | Capítulo | Capítulo 1 1 2020

20

Saúde Suplementar Supplementary Health Care

58 5858 56 5656 54 5454 52 5252 ANO 4 | NºANO 37 |4JANEIRO/2021 | Nº 37 | JANEIRO/2021 50 5050 48 4848 46 4646 44 4444

2525

Saúde Suplementar

23

jan/19 Setor Segurador (s Saúde)

25

Segurador (s Saúde) InsuranceSetor Industry (without Health Care)

Setor Segurador (s Saúde)

Setor Segurador Setor SetorSegurador Segurador (data de corte: (data (data 09/02/21) dede corte: corte: 09/02/21) 09/02/21)

Resumo Resumo Estatístico Estatístico

Setor Segurador Setor Setor (s Segurador Saúde) Segurador (s Saúde) (sCare) Saúde) Saúde Suplementar Saúde Saúde Suplementar Suplementar Insurance Industry (without Health Supplementary Health Care

18

jan/19 jan/19 jan/19 fev/19 abr/19 fev/19 fev/19 feb/19 mar/19 mai/19 jan/19 mar/19 mar/19 mar/19 abr/19 jun/19 fev/19 abr/19 abr/19 abr/19 mai/19 jul/19 mar/19 mai/19 mai/19 may/19 jun/19 ago/19 abr/19 jun/19 jun/19 jun/19 jul/19 set/19 mai/19 jul/19 jul/19 jul/19 ago/19 out/19 jun/19 ago/19 ago/19 aug/19 set/19 nov/19 jul/19 set/19 set/19 sep/19 out/19 dez/19 ago/19 out/19 out/19 oct/19 nov/19 jan/20 set/19 nov/19 nov/19 nov/19 dez/19 fev/20 out/19 dez/19 dez/19 dec/19 jan/20 mar/20 nov/19 jan/20 jan/20 jan/20 fev/20 abr/20 dez/19 fev/20 fev/20 feb/20 mar/20 mai/20 jan/20 mar/20 mar/20 mar/20 abr/20 jun/20 fev/20 abr/20 abr/20 abr/20 mai/20 jul/20 mar/20 mai/20 mai/20 may/20 jun/20 ago/20 abr/20 jun/20 jun/20 jun/20 jul/20 set/20 mai/20 jul/20 jul/20 jul/20 ago/20 out/20 jun/20 ago/20 ago/20 aug/20 set/20 nov/20 jul/20 set/20 set/20 sep/20 out/20 dez/20 ago/20 out/20 out/20 oct/20 nov/20 set/20 nov/20 nov/20 nov/20 dez/20 out/20 dez/20 dez/20 dec/20

15

58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44

Saúde Suplementar

20

Saúde Suplementar

23

58 4848 4646 56 4444 54 4242 52 4040 3838 50 3636 48 3434 46 3232 3030 44

Saúde Suplementar Supplementary Health Care

48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30

25

dez/20

BILLION) (R$ b ilh ões (R$ ) (BRL (R$ b ilh bões ilh ões ) b )ilh ões ) (R$ b ilh (R$ )ões

nov/20

1818 1717 25 1616 231515 1414 201313 1212 181111 1010 15 9 9

Saúde Suplementar

SINISTROS, SINISTROS, SINISTROS, INDENIZAÇÕES, INDENIZAÇÕES, SORTEIOS, SORTEIOS, SORTEIOS, RESGATES RESGATES RESGATES E BENEFÍCIOS E EBENEFÍCIOS BENEFÍCIOS CLAIMS,INDENIZAÇÕES, INDEMNITIES, RAFFLES, REDEMPTIONS, AND BENEFITS ARRECADAÇÃO ARRECADAÇÃO jan/19 mar/19 Setor Segurador (s Saúde)

18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9

Setor Segurador (s Saúde) jan/19Setor Segurador (s Saúde) Segurador (s Saúde) InsuranceSetor Industry (without Health Care) fev/19

Setor Segurador (s Saúde)

Setor Segurador Setor Segurador (data de corte: (data 09/02/21) de corte: 09/02/21)

Setor Segurador Setor Setor (sSegurador Saúde) Segurador (s Saúde) (s Saúde) Saúde Suplementar Saúde Saúde Suplementar Suplementar Sector Asegurador Salud) Salud Suplementaria Setor Segurador Setor (s Segurador Saúde)Health (s (sin Saúde) Saúde Suplementar Saúde Suplementar Insurance Industry (without Care) Supplementary Health Care

NOMINAL VARIATION OF THE REVENUE

0,5% 0,0%

1,3% 0,8%

0.8% 0,8% 0,8%

Saúde Suplementar

1.5% 1,5% 1,5%

48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30

dez/20

1,0%

1,5%

48 46 44 42 40 38 1,3% 1,3%36 34 32 30

Saúde Suplementar

1,5%

3,4% 3,4% 3.4%

nov/20

2,0%

3,4%

mar/19 jan/19 abr/19 fev/19 mai/19 mar/19 jun/19 abr/19 jul/19 mai/19 ago/19 jun/19 set/19 jul/19 out/19 ago/19 nov/19 set/19 dez/19 out/19 jan/20 nov/19 fev/20 dez/19 mar/20 jan/20 abr/20 fev/20 mai/20 mar/20 jun/20 abr/20 jul/20 mai/20 ago/20 jun/20 set/20 jul/20 out/20 ago/20 nov/20 set/20 dez/20 out/20

2,5%

1 2 m3,7% es3.7% es 1m2óveis 1m 2 es m es – es Smetor óveis m óveis S eg – uS–ra etor Sdetor orS (s eg S(R$ em eg u ra uD railh Por dVor A(sT(R$ em (se) em SD P úDV dPões eAVTSAue)TpSelem aSúaden úedta Seur) Spulem p lem enen ta r) ta r) bd ões ba ilh 3,7%

18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9

fev/19

3,0%

4.0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,7% 18 3.5% 3,5% 3,5% 17 3.0% 3,0% 163,0% 152.5% 2,5% 2,5% 14 2.0% 2,0% 132,0% 12 1,5% 1,5% 1.5% 11 1,0% 1.0% 101,0% 9 0,5% 0,5% 0.5%

jan/19Setor Segurador (s Saúde)

3,5%

Setor Segurador (s Saúde)

4,0%

12 MOVING MONTHS –DA INSURANCE INDUSTRY VARIAÇÃO VARIAÇÃO VARIAÇÃO NOMINAL NOMINAL NOMINAL DA ARRECADAÇÃO DA ARRECADAÇÃO ARRECADAÇÃO SINISTROS, SINISTROS, INDENIZAÇÕES, INDENIZAÇÕES, SORTEIOS, SORTEIOS, RESGATES RESGATES E BENEFÍCIOS E BENEFÍCIOS (WITHOUT DPVAT AND SUPPLEMENTARY HEALTH CARE)

0.0% 0,0% 0,0% até ago-20 /até até até ago-20 ago-19 ago-20 / até ago-19 ago-19 set-20 / até até até set-20 set-19 set-20 / até até até set-19 out-20 set-19 /até até até out-20 out-19 / até até até out-19 out-19 /até até até nov-20 nov-19 nov-20 / até // até até nov-19 nov-19 até até dez-20 dez-20 / até // até as of Aug-20 / /asaté of Aug-19 as of Sep-20 / /as of Sep-19 as ofout-20 Oct-20 //as ofnov-20 Oct-19 as of Nov-20 as ofdez-20 Nov-19 /até asdez-19 of Dec-20 asdez-19 ofdez-19 Dec-19 Setor Segurador Setor(sSegurador Saúde) (s Saúde)Saúde Suplementar Saúde Suplementar

Notas: 1) OsNotas: dados Notas: 1) daOs 1) ANS Os dados foram dados daalocados da ANS ANS foram foram noalocados último alocados mês nono de último último cadamês trimestre, mês dede cada cada pois trimestre, trimestre, sua publicação pois pois suasua épublicação feita publicação a cadaé feita três é feita meses. a cada a cada Os três três dados meses. meses. provenientes OsOs dados dados provenientes da provenientes SUSEP sãoda da SUSEP SUSEP sãosão de periodicidade dede periodicidade mensal. periodicidade 2) Em mensal.

Saúde mensal.

2)Suplementar, Em 2) Em Saúde Saúde Suplementar, por Suplementar, questõespor metodológicas, por questões questões metodológicas, metodológicas, os valores apresentados os os valores valores apresentados podem apresentados diferir podem dos podem informados diferir diferir dosdos informados pela informados ANS e FenaSaúde. pela pela ANS ANS e FenaSaúde. e FenaSaúde.

Fonte: DIOPSFonte: (ANS); Fonte: DIOPS Sala DIOPS de (ANS); Situação (ANS); Sala Sala de (ANS); de Situação Situação SES (SUSEP); (ANS); (ANS); SES SGS SES (SUSEP); (BCB) (SUSEP); SGSSGS (BCB) (BCB)

VARIAÇÃO VARIAÇÃO NOMINAL NOMINAL DA ARRECADAÇÃO DA ARRECADAÇÃO Conjuntura Conjuntura Conjuntura CNseg | 1CNseg CNseg | 1| 1

Notes:4,0% 1) The ANS 4,0% data was allocated in month quarter because disclosed every three from esthe es last 1m2óveis m es es –ofSmeach etor óveis S eg – uSra etor d orS (s egitem uisra DdPorV A(sTem e SDa P ú V d eA TSmonths. uepSlem a ú dThe en e ta Sdata ur) p lem enSUSEP ta r) is disclosed monthly.

3,7% 1 2 m3,7% 3,4% 2) In Supplementary Health Care, due to methodological issues, the3,4% values indicated may be different from those informed by ANS and FenaSaúde.

3,5% 3,5% Source: DIOPS (ANS); Situation Room (ANS); SES (SUSEP); SGS (BCB) 3,0% 3,0% 2,5%

2,5%

2,0%

2,0%

1,5%

1,5%

1,0%

1,0%

1,5% CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | 1,5% NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

0,8%

17 0,8%

1,3%

SUMMARY 1,3%

MARKET ANALYSIS

STATISTICAL SUMMARY

Revenue (in million BRL)

As of December

Insurance Industry (without Supplementary Health Care) 1 1.1

Damages and Liabilities (without DPVAT) Automobile

1.1.1

Personal Passengers Accidents

1.1.2

Hull

1.1.3

Optional Civil Liability

1.1.4 1.2 1.2.1

2019

2020

Variation %

December

December

2019

2020

Variation %

73,864.79

78,327.40

6.04%

6,614.74

7,270.24

9.91%

36,013.75

35,258.70

-2.10%

3,307.98

3,527.84

6.65%

630.58

657.73

4.31%

61.55

68.84

11.84%

24,116.04

22,821.93

-5.37%

2,171.86

2,256.68

3.91%

7,889.23

7,839.33

-0.63%

726.10

765.34

5.40%

Other

3,377.90

3,939.71

16.63%

348.47

436.98

25.40%

Property

13,272.54

14,622.04

10.17%

1,175.63

1,275.10

8.46%

9,895.76

10,483.80

5.94%

855.96

1,053.36

23.06%

3,170.58

3,363.32

6.08%

273.57

332.92

21.70%

Massified

1.2.1.1

Comprehensive Residential

1.2.1.2

Comprehensive Condominium

458.41

462.44

0.88%

38.11

39.01

2.36%

1.2.1.3

Comprehensive Corporate

2,597.06

2,641.50

1.71%

223.95

256.21

14.41%

1.2.1.4

Other

3,669.71

4,016.54

9.45%

320.33

425.22

32.74%

2,899.96

3,552.42

22.50%

299.18

196.36

-34.37%

476.81

585.82

22.86%

20.49

25.38

23.83%

1.2.2

Large Risks

1.2.3

Engineering Risk

1.3

Housing

4,179.60

4,510.45

7.92%

358.99

391.84

9.15%

1.4

Transportation

3,370.49

3,357.87

-0.37%

382.79

377.52

-1.38%

1.4.1

Domestic Shippers

942.55

920.67

-2.32%

91.77

102.89

12.11%

1.4.2

International Shippers

564.78

659.25

16.73%

69.28

75.74

9.32%

1,863.16

1,777.94

-4.57%

221.74

198.89

-10.30%

1.5

1.4.3

Credit and Warranty

Carrier

4,508.65

5,309.64

17.77%

357.45

509.04

42.41%

1.6

Extended Warranty

3,251.75

3,045.88

-6.33%

331.95

389.35

17.29%

1.7

Civil Liability

2,110.25

2,591.91

22.82%

228.33

319.03

39.72%

1.7.1

D&O Civil Liability

1.7.2

Other

1.8

Rural

1.9

Maritime and Aeronautical

603.37

919.62

52.41%

107.57

187.51

74.31%

1,506.88

1,672.29

10.98%

120.76

131.53

8.91%

5,310.82

6,880.08

29.55%

344.72

371.85

7.87%

827.00

1,190.51

43.95%

62.01

77.46

24.90%

1.9.1

Maritime

369.60

498.48

34.87%

40.17

40.79

1.56%

1.9.2

Aeronautic

457.40

692.03

51.30%

21.85

36.67

67.83%

1,019.92

1,560.32

52.98%

64.89

31.21

-51.89%

1.10 2

Other

172,398.13

172,457.52

0.03%

17,814.72

21,500.04

20.69%

Risk Plans

43,276.21

45,404.19

4.92%

3,799.80

4,195.37

10.41%

2.1.1

Life

17,950.62

19,967.45

11.24%

1,758.35

2,002.31

13.87%

2.1.2

Lender

13,729.89

14,720.07

7.21%

1,186.01

1,256.90

5.98%

2.1.3

Travel

591.71

241.85

-59.13%

53.70

19.63

-63.44%

2.1.4

Other

11,003.99

10,474.83

-4.81%

801.74

916.52

14.32%

2.1

2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.3

Insurance Coverage

Communication Plan

125,480.19

123,761.08

-1.37%

13,700.63

17,005.73

24.12%

VGBL Family

114,766.90

112,707.10

-1.79%

11,163.65

14,418.87

29.16%

PGBL Family

10,713.29

11,053.99

3.18%

2,536.97

2,586.86

1.97%

Traditional Plans

3,641.73

3,292.24

-9.60%

314.30

298.94

-4.89%

23,903.85

22,932.30

-4.06%

2,272.44

2,049.12

-9.83%

270,166.77

273,717.22

1.31%

26,701.90

30,819.40

15.42%

87.23

16.14

-81.50%

26,789.13

30,835.53

15.10%

3

Capitalization

=1+2+3

=1+2+3Insurance Industry (without DPVAT)

4

DPVAT

=1+2+3+4

Insurance Industry

2,113.60

330.27

272,280.36

274,047.49

-84.37% 0.65%

Note: Amounts regarding endowment branches were included in the risk plans part regardless of their mixed risk characteristics.

Source: SES (SUSEP)

SUMMARY

18

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

STATISTICAL SUMMARY

MARKET ANALYSIS

44 |||JANEIRO/2021 Nº ANO 4 | ANO ANO Nº 37 Nº 37 37 || JANEIRO/2021 JANEIRO/2021

ALLOCATION OF REVENUE INPIB THE PENETRAÇÃO DA ARRECADAÇÃO NO PIB PENETRAÇÃO PENETRAÇÃO DA ARRECADAÇÃO DATHE ARRECADAÇÃO NO NOGDP PIB 7%

7% 7%

6%

6% 6%

5%

5% 5%

4%

4% 4%

3%

3% 3%

2%

2% 2%

1%

1% 1%

0%

0% 0%

6,4%

6,4% 6.4% 6,4%

6,5%

6,5% 6,5% 6.5%

6,4%

6,4% 6.4% 6,4%

6,6%

6,6% 6.6% 6,6%

2,4% 2.4% 2,4%

2,6%

2,6% 2.6% 2,6%

2,8%

2,8% 2.8% 2,8%

2,8%

2.8% 2,8% 2,8%

2,9%

2,9% 2.9% 2,9%

3,7%

3,7% 3,7% 3.7%

3,8%

3,8% 3.8% 3,8%

3,8%

3,8% 3.8% 3,8%

3,5%

3,5% 3.5% 3,5%

3,7%

3,7% 3,7%

2015

2015 2015

2016

2016 2016

2017

2017 2017

2018

2018 2018

2019

2019 2019

6,1%

6,1% 6.1% 6,1%

2,4%

Allocation ofda theArrecadação Revenue in the GDP Allocation ofda theArrecadação Revenue in the GDP Penetração PIB -- Setor Penetração PIB -- Saúde Penetração Penetração da Arrecadação da Arrecadação no PIB - no no Setor PIB- Segurador Setor Segurador Segurador (s Saúde)(s (s Saúde) Saúde) Penetração Penetração da Arrecadação da Arrecadação no PIB - no no Saúde PIB- Suplementar Saúde Suplementar Suplementar Insurance Industry (without Health Care)

Supplementary Health Care

300,0

300,0 300.0 300,0 272,3

250,0

250,0 250.0 250,0

200,0

200,0 200.0 200,0

BRL billion R$ bilhões

R$ bilhões

DANOS EEAND RESPONSABILIDADES (SEM DPVAT) ++ DPVAT ++ PLANOS DE ++ DANOS DANOS E RESPONSABILIDADES RESPONSABILIDADES (SEM DPVAT) (SEM DPVAT) DPVAT DPVAT +RISK PLANOS PLANOS DE RISCO DE RISCO RISCO + DAMAGE LIABILITY (WITHOUT DPVAT) ++ DPVAT + PLANS + CAPITALIZATION PLANOS DE ACUMULAÇÃO + CAPITALIZAÇÃO PLANOS PLANOS DE ACUMULAÇÃO DE ACUMULAÇÃO + CAPITALIZAÇÃO + CAPITALIZAÇÃO

150,0

150,0 150.0 150,0

100,0

100,0 100,0 100.0

50,0 0,0

(DISTRIBUTION IN PERIODS, SEGMENT) trib oo ddOF aa ça ddTHE iferen ça ddaatre çã en pperíod ,, pBY ssto) eg (Dis trib(Dis u(Dis içã trib o d auuiçã içã d iferen iferen n aDIFFERENCE a rreca ça nnaadaarreca rreca çã REVENUES o en çãoopBETWEEN eríod entre treos ,eríod p or os os s eg m por or en egm men ento) to) 272,3 -1,8 272,3 -1,8 -1,8 -1.0 -1,0 1,8 -1,0 -1,0 1,8 1,8 -1,7 272.3 4.4 -1.8 1.8 -1.7 4,4 -1,7 -1,7 4,4 4,4

73,9

50,0 50,0 050.0

78,3 73,9 73.9 73,9

126,4 126.4 126,4 124,7 126,4 124.7 124,7 124,7

78,3 78.3 78,3 2,1

0,0 0,0 000.0

274,0 274.0 274,0

274,0

2,1 2.1 2,1 0,3

46,0

47,8 46,0 46.0 46,0

47.8 47,8 47,8

23,9

0.3 0,3 0,3

24.9 23,9 22,9 23,9

22,9 22.9 22,9

Damage DPVAT Risk Plans Communication Capitalization 2020-12 2019-12 ee DPVAT DPVAT Planos de Planos de Capitalização 2019-122019-12 2019-12 Danos eDanos Danosand DPVAT Planos de Planos Risco de Risco Risco Planos de Planos de Capitalização Capitalização 2020-122020-12 2020-12 Liability (without Plan Respons. (s Acumulação Respons.Respons. (sDPVAT) (s Acumulação Acumulação DPVAT) DPVAT) DPVAT)

BENEFICIÁRIOS EM PLANOS DE SAÚDE BENEFICIÁRIOS BENEFICIÁRIOS EM PLANOS EM PLANOS DE CARE SAÚDE DEPLANS SAÚDE BENEFICIARIES OF HEALTH

46,77 46.67 46,67 46,67

46,86

46,67

46,77 46.77 46,77

47.7 47,7 47,7 47.6 47,6 47,6 47.5 47,5 47,5 47.4 47,4 47,4 47,3 47.3 47,3 47,2 47.2 47,2 47,1 47.1 47,1 47,0 47.0 47,0 46,9 46.9 46,9 46,8 46,8 46.8 46,7 46,7 46.7 46,6 46,6 46.6 46,5 46,5 46.5 46,4 46,4 46.4 46,3 46,3 46.3 46,2 46,2 46.2

Assitência Médica Health Care Assitência Médica

46,74 46.74 46,74

47,6 47,5 47,4 47,56 47.56 47,56 47,3 47,2 47,1 47,0 46,9 46,8 46,7 46,6 46,5 46,4 46,3 46,2

Assitência Médica

47,01 47,01 47.01

47,56 47,39 47,39 47.39

47,7 26,53 26.53 26,53

dez/20 Dec/20

47,19

47,39 47,19 47.19 47,19

nov/20 dez/20 Nov/20

25,88

25,37 25.37 25,37

46,74

26,53

25,88 25,88 25.88

25,46 25.46 25,46 25,37

47,01 46,86 46,86 46.86

46,97 46,97 46.97

26,68 26.68 26,68

26,68

out/20 nov/20 Oct/20

25,46 25,35 25.35 25,35

26,23 26,23 26.23

set/20 out/20 Sep/20

25,41 25.41 25,41 25,35

ago/20 set/20 Aug/20

46,97

25,41

jul/20 Jul/20 ago/20

47,05 47.05 47,05

25,74 25.74 25,74

Jun/20 jun/20 jul/20

25,74

May/20 mai/20 jun/20

47,05 46,98 46,98 46.98

26,00 26,00 26.00

26,23

abr/20 Apr/20 mai/20

26,00

Mar/20 mar/20 abr/20

46,96

46,98 46,96 46.96 46,96

26,02 26.02 26,02

Feb/20 fev/20 mar/20

47,01 47,01 47.01

25,91 25,91 25.91 26,02

Jan/20 jan/20 fev/20

25,91 25,85 25.85 25,85

dec/19 dez/19 jan/20

27.0 27,0 27,0 26.5 26,5 26,5 25,85 26.0 26,0 26,0 25.5 25,5 25,5 25.0 25,0 25,0 24.5 24,5 24,5 47,01 24.0 24,0 24,0 23.5 23,5 23,5 23.0 23,0 23,0 22.5 22,5 22,5

dez/19

27,0 26,5 26,0 25,5 25,0 24,5 24,0 23,5 23,0 22,5

Exclusively Odontológica Dental Exclusivamente Odontológica Exclusivamente

Exclusivamente Odontológica

(em m eUSERS) (em m ilh (em ões mdilh ilh e uões ões s uOF áddrios e uu)ssuuáários rios)) (MILLIONS

Assistência Exclusivamente Odontológica Health Care médica DentalOdontológica Assistência Assistência médica médica Exclusively Exclusivamente Exclusivamente Odontológica Nota: Saúde por metodológicas, os valores apresentados podem diferir dos ANS Nota: Em Nota: Saúde Em Suplementar, Saúde Suplementar, Suplementar, por questões por questões questões metodológicas, metodológicas, os valores osapresentados valores apresentados podem diferir podem diferir informados dos informados informados pela ANSpela pela e FenaSaúde.

ANS eebyFenaSaúde.

FenaSaúde.

Note: In Em Supplementary Health Care, due to methodological issues, the values indicated maydos be different from those informed ANS and FenaSaúde.

Fontes: DIOPS (ANS); Sala (ANS); (SUSEP); SGS (BCB) Fontes:Source: DIOPS Fontes: (ANS); DIOPS Sala (ANS); de Situation Situação Sala de de Situação (ANS); Situação SES (ANS); (SUSEP); SES SGS (SUSEP); (BCB) SGS (BCB) DIOPS (ANS); Room (ANS); SESSES (SUSEP); SGS (BCB)

Conjuntura || 33 Conjuntura Conjuntura CNseg |CNseg CNseg 3

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

19

SUMMARY

STATISTICAL SUMMARY

MARKET ANALYSIS

ANO 4 | Nº 37 | JANEIRO/2021

VARIAÇÃO DA NOMINALNOMINAL VARIATION OFARRECADAÇÃO THE REVENUE 12 MESES MÓVEIS IN 12 MOVING MONTHS Da nDamage o s e R eand s p ons a bilid a (without des (s em DPVAT) DPVAT) Liabilities

7,0% 7.0% 5.0% 5,0%

4,0% 4.0%

3,5% 3.5%

6,0% 6.0%

5,8% 5.8%

5,1% 5.1%

6,0% 6.0%

Co b ePersonal r tu ra d e Coverage P e s s oa s

5%

4,6% 4.6%

3% 2% 1%

2,0% 2.0%

-1%

0,0% 0.0% atéofago-20 as Aug-20 // as ofago-19 Aug-19 até

até as ofset-20 Sep-20// as ofset-19 Sep-19 até

até out-20 as of Oct-20// as of Oct-19 até out-19

até as ofnov-20 Nov-20// as of Nov-19 até nov-19

até dez-20 as of Dec-20// as of Dec-19 até dez-19

4%

3.3% 3,3%

4% 2,2% 2.2%

2.7% 2,7%

as ofago-20 Aug-20 // as Sep-20// até atéofset-20 as of Aug-19 as of Sep-19 até ago-19 até set-19

2.3% 2,3%

2% 1% 1% 0% até ago-19

até set-19

Co b e r tuPersonal ra d e P eCoverage s s oa s – P-la n o s d e A c u mPlans ula ç ã o Accumulation

as of Oct-20// até as of Nov-20 as of Dec-20/ / até out-20 nov-20 / / até dez-20 as of Oct-19 as of Nov-19 as of Dec-19 até out-19 até nov-19 até dez-19

6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4%

4.7% 4,7% 3.0% 3,0%

até ago-20 / até ago-19 as of Aug-20 / as of Aug-19

Capitalization

0,3% 0.3%

1%

-4,1% -4.1%

0% -1%

-1.2% -1,2%

-2% -3% -4% -5%

as of Aug-20/ / as ofset-20 Sep-20 // até ago-20 até as of Aug-19 as of Sep-19 até ago-19 até set-19

as of Sep-20 / as of Sep-19

-2,6% -2.6%

-1.3% -1,3%

até out-20 / até out-19

até nov-20 / até nov-19

até dez-20 / até dez-19

as of Oct-20 / as of Oct-19

as of Nov-20 / as of Nov-19

as of Dec-20 / as of Dec-19

Supplementary Health Care

2.5% 2,5%

2%

até set-20 / até set-19

-0.8% -0,8%

S a ú d e S u p le menta r

Ca p it a liz a ç ã o

2.4% 2,4%

as of Oct-20// até as of Nov-20/ / até as of Dec-20 até out-20 nov-20 dez-20 // as of Oct-19 as of Nov-19 as of Dec-19 até out-19 até nov-19 até dez-19

3.7% 3,7%

2%

as Aug-20 // as Sep-20 // atéofago-20 atéofset-20 as of Aug-19 as of Sep-19

-1.0% -1,0%

-2%

Co b e r tuPersonal ra d e P eCoverage s s oa s – -PRisk la n oPlans s d e R is c o

3%

0,0% 0.0%

0,1% 0.1%

0%

1,0% 1.0%

3%

3,0% 3.0%

4%

3,0% 3.0%

3%

4.0% 4,0%

as ofout-20 Oct-20 // até as ofnov-20 Nov-20// as ofdez-20 Dec-20 // até até as of Oct-19 as of Nov-19 as of Dec-19 até out-19 até nov-19 até dez-19

10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

8,2% 8.2%

8.7% 8,7%

8.5% 8,5%

8,9% 8.9% 7,2% 7.2%

as 3tri-19 of 3Q-19/ / até as 4tri-19 of 4Q-19/ / até as 1tri-20 of 1Q-20/ / até as 2tri-20 of 2Q-20/ / até as of 3Q-20// até 3tri-20 as of 3Q-18 as of 4Q-18 as of 1Q-19 as of 2Q-19 as of 3Q-19 até 3tri-18 até 4tri-18 até 1tri-19 até 2tri-19 até 3tri-19

Nota: Em Saúde Suplementar, por questões metodológicas, os valores apresentados podem diferir dos informados pela ANS e FenaSaúde.

Nota: InFontes: Supplementary Health due to methodological issues, the values indicated may be different from those informed by ANS and FenaSaúde.

DIOPS (ANS); SES Care, (SUSEP) Source: DIOPS (ANS); SES (SUSEP) Conjuntura CNseg |

SUMMARY

20

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

4

STATISTICAL SUMMARY

MARKET ANALYSIS

INSURANCE INDUSTRY - NATIONAL OVERVIEW (cut-off date: 02/09/21) Revenue Brasil Nominal Insurance Industry

Accumulated as of Dec-20

Nominal variation - 12 moving months (%)

variation monthly (%)

(without Supplementary Health Care)

1 1.1 1.1.1

Damages and Liabilities (without DPVAT) Automobile Personal Passengers Accidents

1.1.2

Hull

1.1.3

Optional Civil Liability

1.1.4 1.2 1.2.1

(in million

Nominal

Marketshare

Aug-20 /

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20 /

Dec-20 /

BRL)

Variation (%)

Product

Aug

/ Sep

/ Oct-

/ Nov-19

Dec-19

Dec-19

78,327.40

6.0%

28.6%

3.5%

4.6%

5.1%

5.8%

6.0%

17.0%

35,258.70

-2.1%

12.9%

-2.6%

-2.7%

-2.9%

-2.5%

-2.1%

4.3%

657.73

4.3%

0.2%

1.3%

1.8%

2.8%

3.9%

4.3%

12.9%

22,821.93

-5.4%

8.3%

-6.7%

-6.7%

-6.6%

-5.9%

-5.4%

1.6%

7,839.33

-0.6%

2.9%

-0.6%

-0.6%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.6%

7.0%

Other

3,939.71

16.6%

1.4%

25.2%

22.4%

19.3%

17.6%

16.6%

14.8%

Property

14,622.04

10.2%

5.3%

7.7%

7.2%

8.8%

9.6%

10.2%

7.2%

10,483.80

5.9%

3.8%

4.7%

3.5%

3.9%

4.3%

5.9%

2.3%

3,363.32

6.1%

1.2%

3.2%

3.6%

4.2%

4.9%

6.1%

16.4%

462.44

0.9%

0.2%

1.8%

1.3%

1.0%

1.1%

0.9%

1.7%

Massified

1.2.1.1

Comprehensive Residential

1.2.1.2

Comprehensive Condominium

1.2.1.3

Comprehensive Corporate

2,641.50

1.7%

1.0%

0.0%

0.6%

0.7%

0.5%

1.7%

11.2%

1.2.1.4

Other

4,016.54

9.5%

1.5%

10.0%

5.7%

6.4%

6.9%

9.5%

-12.8% 40.0%

1.2.2

Large Risks

1.2.3

Engineering Risk

3,552.42

22.5%

1.3%

18.3%

21.3%

21.8%

25.8%

22.5%

585.82

22.9%

0.2%

1.9%

-1.3%

30.6%

21.4%

22.9%

5.3%

15.6%

15.9%

7.9%

9.8% 11.0%

1.3

Housing

4,510.45

7.9%

1.6%

15.2%

15.2%

1.4

Transportation

3,357.87

-0.4%

1.2%

-2.7%

-2.0%

0.4%

1.2%

-0.4%

1.4.1

Domestic Shippers

920.67

-2.3%

0.3%

-6.0%

-5.4%

-3.7%

-4.4%

-2.3%

3.6%

1.4.2

International Shippers

659.25

16.7%

0.2%

6.2%

4.4%

13.2%

16.8%

16.7%

-14.1%

1.4.3 1.5

Carrier Credit and Warranty

1,777.94

-4.6%

0.6%

-3.8%

-2.3%

-1.3%

-0.6%

-4.6%

22.6%

5,309.64

17.8%

1.9%

-1.7%

12.5%

12.5%

12.9%

17.8%

308.3% 939.9%

1.5.1

Guarantee of Obligations

3,107.61

7.5%

1.1%

-10.0%

10.5%

7.9%

6.5%

7.5%

1.5.2

Other

2,202.03

36.1%

0.8%

13.1%

15.6%

20.2%

23.6%

36.1%

49.9%

1.6

Extended Warranty

3,045.88

-6.3%

1,1%

-9.4%

-9.4%

-8.3%

-7.6%

-6.3%

12.4%

1.7

Civil Liability

2,591.91

22.8%

0.9%

19.8%

23.3%

21.4%

20.3%

22.8%

56.1%

919.62

52.4%

0.3%

58.8%

57.5%

51.8%

44.6%

52.4%

44.1%

1,672.29

11.0%

0.6%

6.4%

11.1%

10.1%

10.9%

11.0%

61.9%

1.7.1

D&O Civil Liability

1.7.2

Other

1.8

Rural

6,880.08

29.5%

2.5%

25.2%

27.9%

28.7%

29.9%

29.5%

46.7%

1.9

Maritime and Aeronautical

1,190.51

44.0%

0.4%

24.2%

20.4%

35.3%

42.0%

44.0%

-41.2%

1.9.1

Maritime

498.48

34.9%

0.2%

17.6%

18.7%

25.2%

37.6%

34.9%

13.0%

1.9.2

Aeronautic

692.03

51.3%

0.3%

29.9%

21.9%

43.6%

45.4%

51.3%

-54.1%

1,560.32

53.0%

0.6%

45.5%

46.1%

44.1%

52.0%

53.0%

9.1%

1.10 2

Other Insurance Coverage

172,457.52

0.0%

63.0%

4.0%

3.0%

0.1%

-1.0%

0.0%

9.2%

Risk Plans

45,404.19

4.9%

16.6%

4.2%

4.6%

3.9%

4.7%

4.9%

19.0%

2.1.1

Life

19,967.45

11.2%

7.3%

14.3%

13.8%

11.7%

11.5%

11.2%

18.7%

2.1.2

Lender

14,720.07

7.2%

5.4%

4.6%

5.8%

5.8%

8.1%

7.2%

33.2% -81.4%

2.1

2.1.3

Travel

241.85

-59.1%

0.1%

-35.4%

-41.9%

-47.7%

-53.2%

-59.1%

2.1.4

Other

10,474.83

-4.8%

3.8%

-9.3%

-8.5%

-7.9%

-7.1%

-4.8%

5.5%

123,761.08

-1.4%

45.2%

4.7%

3.1%

-0.8%

-2.7%

-1.4%

6.1%

2.2

Communication Plan

2.2.1

VGBL Family

112,707.10

-1.8%

41.2%

4.4%

2.6%

-1.6%

-3.7%

-1.8%

5.1%

2.2.2

PGBL Family

11,053.99

3.2%

4.0%

7.6%

8.6%

7.8%

8.2%

3.2%

19.6%

2.3

Traditional Plans

3

Capitalization

=1+2+3

Insurance Industry (without Health Care, without DPVAT)

3,292.24

-9.6%

1.2%

-18.7%

-17.4%

-14.6%

-11.5%

-9.6%

-4.6%

22,932.30

-4.1%

8.4%

2.4%

2.5%

0.3%

-1.2%

-4.1%

16.6%

100.0%

3.7%

3.4%

1.5%

0.8%

1.3%

11.9%

273,717.22

1.3%

Note: Amounts regarding endowment branches were included in the risk plans part regardless of their mixed risk and accumulation characteristics.

Source: SES (SUSEP)

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

21

SUMMARY

-20

-30 -40

-50

-60

-70

SUMMARY

IPCA

Fonte: SGS (BCB) e SIDRA (IBGE)

22

-12 -6 -3,9 -3.9

-8

-10

-10,9 -10.9

TAXA DE JUROS SELIC EFETIVA INTEREST RATE - –EFFECTIVE SELIC

(in billion USD, accumulated (em % a . a . )in 12 months)

7

6

0

5

5,00 5.00

4

4,50 4.50

3

4,00 4.00

2

3,50 3.50

1

3.00 3,00

(va ria% çãaccumulated o % a c. emin1 212mmonths) es es ) (variation

INFLAÇÃO IPCAAND E IGP-M INFLATION ––IPCA IGP-M

30%

70

25%

60

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

IGP-M

BALANCE CURRENT TRANSACTIONS SALDO EM OF TRANSAÇÕES CORRENTES

(in(em billion accumulated in 12 U SUSD, $ b ilh ões , a c. em 1 2months) m es es )

-10

0

60

50

40

-20

Services Serviços

0,9 0.9

1,9 1.9

5,1 5.1

1,7 1.7

Industry Indústria

Source: SGS (BCB) and SIDRA (IBGE)

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021 202009

202006

202003

-4,8 -4.8

-0,9 -0.9

-0,7 -0.7 -0,3 -0.3

-1,4 -1.4

0,4 0.4

2,5 2.5

4,0 4.0

1,8 1.8 1,0 1.0

ECONOMIC INDICATORS (cut-off date:Econômicos 02/09/21) (data de corte: 09/02/21) Indicadores

201912

1,3 1.3 0,5 0.5 1,1 1.1

-10,2 -10.2 -14,1 -14.1

-15 201909

-10

1,6 1.6 0,6 0.6 1,2 1.2

0

201906

-0,7 -0.7

-0,4 -0.4

-5

201903

-0,3 -0.3 2,1 2.1 1,0 1.0 4,8 4.8

5

201812

0

201809

1,6 1.6

sep-18 set-18 oct-18 out-18 nov-18 dez-18 dic-18 jan-19 ene-19 fev-19 feb-19 mar-19 abr-19 mai-19 may-19 jun-19 jul-19 ago-19 set-19 sep-19 out-19 oct-19 nov-19 dez-19 dic-19 jan-20 ene-20 fev-20 feb-20 mar-20 abr-20 mai-20 may-20 jun-20 jul-20 ago-20 set-20 sep-20 out-20 oct-20 nov-20 dez-20 dic-20

10

52,4 52.4 52,2 52.2 52,8 52.8 53,1 53.1 53,1 53.1 53,0 53.0 53,0 53.0 53,1 53.1 53,7 53.7 54,1 54.1 53,2 53.2 53,5 53.5 54,0 54.0 53,6 53.6 54,6 54.6 53,1 53.1 52,6 52.6 50,7 50.7 51,8 51.8 54,1 54.1 56,7 56.7 58,8 58.8 59,4 59.4 60,2 60.2 60,1 60.1 61,8 61.8 63,0 63.0

-4

202009

-2

202006

1.3 1,3

202003

1.5 1,5

201912

1,2 1.2

201909

1,7 1.7

201906

2,1 2.1

201903

201812

201809

2

oct-18 out-18 nov-18 dic-18 dez-18 ene-19 jan-19 feb-19 fev-19 mar-19 abr-19 may-19 mai-19 jun-19 jul-19 ago-19 sep-19 set-19 oct-19 out-19 nov-19 dic-19 dez-19 ene-20 jan-20 feb-20 fev-20 mar-20 abr-20 may-20 mai-20 jun-20 jul-20 ago-20 sep-20 set-20 oct-20 out-20 nov-20 dic-20 dez-20

sep-18 set-18 oct-18 out-18 nov-18 nov-18 dic-18 dez-18 ene-19 jan-19 feb-19 fev-19 mar-19 mar-19 abr-19 abr-19 mai-19 may-19 jun-19 jun-19 jul-19 jul-19 ago-19 ago-19 set-19 sep-19 out-19 oct-19 nov-19 nov-19 dez-19 dic-19 jan-20 ene-20 fev-20 feb-20 mar-20 mar-20 abr-20 abr-20 mai-20 may-20 jun-20 jun-20 jul-20 jul-20 ago-20 ago-20 set-20 sep-20 out-20 oct-20 nov-20 nov-20 dez-20 dic-20

PIB TOTAL TOTAL GDP

51,0 51.0 51.4 51,4 51,7 51.7 53,0 53.0 51,6 51.6 51,6 51.6 49,3 49.3 49,1 49.1 48.4 48,4 47,7 47.7 45,8 45.8 47,1 47.1 45,6 45.6 42.1 42,1 41,4 41.4 40,5 40.5 36,9 36.9 36,1 36.1 35,6 35.6 36,2 36.2 35,0 35.0 36,8 36.8 42.5 42,5 44,6 44.6 46,5 46.5 49,4 49.4 49,3 49.3 43,2 43.2

sep-18 set-18 out-18 oct-18 nov-18 nov-18 dez-18 dic-18 jan-19 ene-19 fev-19 feb-19 mar-19 mar-19 abr-19 abr-19 mai-19 may-19 jun-19 jun-19 jul-19 jul-19 ago-19 ago-19 set-19 sep-19 out-19 oct-19 nov-19 nov-19 dez-19 dic-19 jan-20 ene-20 fev-20 feb-20 mar-20 mar-20 abr-20 abr-20 mai-20 may-20 jun-20 jun-20 jul-20 jul-20 ago-20 ago-20 set-20 sep-20 out-20 oct-20 nov-20 nov-20 dez-20 dic-20

4

-37,6 -37.6 -38,1 -38.1 -38,1 -38.1 -41,5 -41.5 -43,0 -43.0 -39,7 -39.7 -40,0 -40.0 -40,1 -40.1 -41,3 -41.3 -41,5 -41.5 -44,4 -44.4 -44,6 -44.6 -46,0 -46.0 -52,1 -52.1 -52,2 -52.2 -50,7 -50.7 -52,8 -52.8 -55,7 -55.7 -56,1 -56.1 -53,3 -53.3 -51,0 -51.0 -46,3 -46.3 -36,0 36.0 -29,4 -29.4 -24,4 -24.4 -15,0 -15.0 -11,8 -11.8 -12,5 -12.5

(T /(T/ T - T4, 4,em %) in %)

set-18 sep-18 out-18 oct-18 nov-18 dez-18 dic-18 jan-19 ene-19 fev-19 feb-19 mar-19 abr-19 mai-19 may-19 jun-19 jul-19 ago-19 set-19 sep-19 out-19 oct-19 nov-19 dez-19 dic-19 jan-20 ene-20 fev-20 feb-20 mar-20 abr-20 mai-20 may-20 jun-20 jul-20 ago-20 ago-20 set-20 sep-20 out-20 oct-20 nov-20 nov-20 dez-20 dic-20

sep-18 set-18 oct-18 out-18 nov-18 nov-18 dic-18 dez-18 ene-19 jan-19 feb-19 fev-19 mar-19 mar-19 abr-19 abr-19 may-19 mai-19 jun-19 jun-19 jul-19 jul-19 ago-19 ago-19 set-19 sep-19 out-19 oct-19 nov-19 nov-19 dez-19 dic-19 jan-20 ene-20 fev-20 feb-20 mar-20 mar-20 abr-20 abr-20 mai-20 may-20 jun-20 jun-20 jul-20 jul-20 ago-20 ago-20 set-20 sep-20 out-20 oct-20 nov-20 nov-20 dez-20 dic-20

MARKET ANALYSIS STATISTICAL SUMMARY

ANO 4 | Nº 37 | JANEIRO/2021

GDPPIB FROM THEÓTICA PERSPECTIVE OF PRODUCTION PELA DA PRODUÇÃO (T em (T// TT-- 4, 4, in %)% )

Agribusiness Agropecuária

TAXA DE CÂMBIO R$/US$ EXCHANGE RATES –- BRL/USD

6,00 6.00 (fees end of period) (ta xat a the d e fim d ethe p eríod o)

5,50 5.50

2.50 2,50

DÍVIDA LÍQUIDA DO SETOR PÚBLICO PUBLIC SECTOR NET DEBT (%(com of the GDP months) o% d oaccumulated P I B a c. emin112 2m es es )

50

40

30

20

10

0

SALDO DATRADE BALANÇA COMERCIAL BALANCE

(em U S $ bUSD, ilh ões , a c. em in 1 212mmonths) es es ) (in billion accumulated

30

20

10

0

Conjuntura CNseg | 38

GLOSSARY

GLOSSÁRIO Revenue of the Insurance Industry: Refers to the direct insurance premium, premium issued under the capitalization regime, pension plan contribution, capitalization billing, and supplementary health care benefits.

Per capita revenue: the proportion of the revenue of the Insurance Industry over the Brazilian population.

Assets of the Insurance Industry: Economic resources such as goods and rights over insurance, pension plans, capitalization, and supplementary health care.

CAGED: General Registry of Employed and Unemployed, issued by the Labor Department of the Ministry of Economy.

Net Capitalization Collection: Difference between the Capitalization invoicing and total redemption.

Trading Expenses of the Insurance Industry: Trading expenses and aggregate acquisition costs for insurance, pension plan, capitalization, and supplementary health care.

Capitalization Invoicing: Invoicing with capitalization bonds net of return and cancellation.

FGTS: Unemployment Guarantee Fund, managed by Caixa Econômica Federal, created to protect workers who are dismissed without cause, by opening an account bound to the employment agreement, forming compulsory savings that may be used on special occasions.

Focus: Weekly report released by the Central Bank of Brazil with statistics summarizing market agents’ expectations regarding macroeconomic variables.

IGP-M: General Price Index, calculated by Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV).

Net collection of the Accumulation Plans: Difference between the total contribution to pension plans and the premium issued as capitalization of VGBL and the total redemption of pension plans and VGBL. Applicable only to those plans.

Indemnification of Supplementary Health Care: Net/premium indemnifiable events withheld from Medical-Hospital and/ or Dental assistance coverage.

Supplementary Health Care Consideration: Net/premium consideration withheld for Medic-Hospital and/or Dental assistance coverages.

Deed of Guarantee: aims to enable the mathematical reserve for capitalization of the capitalization bond to be used to ensure the fulfillment of the obligation undertook in the main agreement by the holder before a third party.

Pension Plan Contribution: Amount corresponding to each of the contributions allocated to fund the pension plan.

IPCA: Broad Consumer Price Index calculated by IBGE.

Administrative Expenses of the Insurance Industry: Administrative expenses with insurance, pension plans, capitalization, and supplementary health care.

Allocation of the Insurance Industry in the GDP: The proportion of the Revenues of the Insurance Industry in the Gross Domestic Product.

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

23

SUMMARY

GLOSSARY

GDP: Gross Domestic Product, the total value of all final goods and services produced in the country in a given period.

Selic: The basic interest rate for the Brazilian economy, defined by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Brazilian Central Bank.

Monthly GDP: Monthly Nominal Gross Domestic Product, calculated and published by the Brazilian Central Bank (a monthly proxy for the official Nominal GDP, calculated by the IBGE).

Insurance claims: Covers the insurance claims of insurances and supplementary health care

PIM-PF: Monthly Industrial Production Physical Production, by IBGE.

Supplementary Health Care Claims: the proportion of supplementary health care indemnification over the supplementary health care benefit.

PNAD: National Research by a Sample of Households, by IBGE. Brazilian Population: Number of inhabitants in the national territory published by IBGE, based on the information from birth and death registers, demographic censuses, and intercensus population counts.

Direct Insurance Premium: Issued premium net of cancellation and refund.

Premium Issued in Capitalization Regime: The amount of each installment made to pay insurances structured in the capitalization financial regime.

Reserves of the Insurance Industry: Liabilities assessed by the Insurance Industry to represent future obligations from undertakings with contracting parties in their transactions.

Withdrawal and Pension benefits: Amount corresponding to each of the withdrawals and benefits destined to cover the pension plan.

SUMMARY

24

Insurance Claims: the proportion of insurance claims over the gained premium.

Claim occurrence / indemnity / raffle / redemption / benefit of the Insurance Industry: Covers insurance claims, pension plan redemption, and benefit, capitalization draw and redemption, and supplementary health care indemnity.

Insurance Claim Occurred: Claims notified, insurance-related expenses, accepted redemption, change in claim reserves, and assistance services net of notified salvage and reimbursements, and their variation from the PSL adjustment. It considers the administrative and judicial parcels, consortiums and funds, and expenses with benefits under a capitalization regime and the distribution of capital for insurance coverage.

Raffle and redemption of Capitalization: Amount corresponding to the premium from raffle and redemptions paid with capitalization bonds.

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021

ANÁLISE DE MERCADO

GLOSSÁRIO

EXECUTIVE BOARD term of office from 04/30/2019 to 04/29/2022

President

Officers

Marcio Serôa de Araujo Coriolano

Edson Luís Franco Zurich Minas Brasil Seguros S/A

1st Vice-Presidents

Eduard Folch Rue Allianz Seguros S/A

Roberto de Souza Santos Porto Seguro Cia. de Seguros Gerais

Fernando Perez-Serrabona Garcia Mapfre Previdência S/A

Vice-Presidents

Francisco Alves de Souza COMPREV Vida e Previdência S/A

Gabriel Portella Fagundes Filho Sul América Companhia Nacional de Seguros

João Francisco Silveira Borges da Costa HDI Seguros S/A José Adalberto Ferrara Tokio Marine Seguradora S/A

Ivan Luiz Gontijo Junior Bradesco Seguros

Leonardo Deeke Boguszewski Junto Seguros S/A

Luciano Snel Corrêa Icatu Capitalização S/A

Luiz Fernando Butori Reis Santos Itaú Seguros S/A

Senior Vice-Presidents Antonio Eduardo Márquez de Figueiredo Trindade National Federation of General Insurance

João Alceu Amoroso Lima National Federation of Supplementary Health Care

Márcio Hamilton Ferreira Brasilprev Seguros e Previdência Nilton Molina Mongeral AEGON Seguros e Previdência S/A Patrícia Andrea Freitas Velloso dos Santos Prudential do Brasil Seguros de Vida S/A Pedro Cláudio de Medeiros B. Bulcão Sinaf Previdencial Cia. de Seguros Pedro Pereira de Freitas American Life Companhia de Seguros S/A

Jorge Pohlmann Nasser National Private and Life Pension Federation

Senior Officer Luiz Tavares Pereira Filho Advisor to Fenaseg’s Presidency

Marcelo Gonçalves Farinha National Federation of Capitalization

EXECUTIVE BOARD Alexandre Leal – Technical and Studies Officer Luiz Tavares Pereira Filho – Legal Advisor to Fenaseg’s Presidency Miriam Mara Miranda – Institutional Relations Officer Paulo Annes – Administration, Finance, and Control Officer Solange Beatriz Palheiro Mendes – Consumer Relations and Communication Officer

National Confederation of Insurance Companies YEARS

SUMMARY

26

CNseg CONJUNCTURE | YEAR 4 | NO 37 | FEBRUARY/2021