A Th e Component Manufacturing dverti$er Adverti$er Donâ€™t Forget! You Saw it in the March 2018 #10224 Page #77 Lumber Briefs By Matt Layman Publisher, Laymanâ€™s Lumber Guide Managing the Bear Market 4 Costly Bear Market Mistakes! What could possibly be worse than missing a huge bullish market move? There are four critical bull market mistakes. Actually, they go both ways...bull and bear markets. 1. Failure to acknowledge that the trend/price direction is preparing to reverse. This prohibits an early transition from delayed to rapid buying strategies. 2. Failure to acknowledge that the trend has already reversed. This further delays accumulating a preemptive inventory position. Money left on the table. 3. Chasing the established new trend. This puts the buyer at a competitive price disadvantage. 4. Prematurely calling it over when it is not. This creates two wounds. First is the weakening of inventory positions too early. Second, it results in taking orders too cheaply. Liquidating too soon at the top results in selling too cheaply too early and paying too much to fill in near the top. Conversely, being late at the bottom results in selling too low for too long then paying too much, too far off the bottom. The most costly move I made as a lumber trader was calling reversals too early. The most painful was always prematurely selling against a rising trend. Timing is everything. Anticipate and act. The single most important thing to remember in any market is everyone ALWAYS talks their position. Right now, late February, no one wants the market to top, least of all brokers who are over bought. Consider your suppliersâ€™ investments when listening to their market opinions. -+.-0(1& 4 0 " ! /5 &+ (/ /&&, -2' (/ 30 -/&$#01&% (+& /($& .8EG<64? 4EEBJF CEB=86G G<@8 @4=BE GHEAF +87 FDH4E8F CEB=86G CE<68 54F87 HCBA 9BE864FG87 7 "E88A 1BA8 $A6E84FF 08??BJ 1BA8 4L?<:;G ,4IF -;EBH:; /88> A veteran lumberman, Matt Layman publishes Layman's Lumber Guide, the weekly forecasts and buying advisories that help component manufacturers save money on lumber purchases every day. You can reach Matt at 336-516-6684 or matt@laymansguide.org. continued next page PHONE: 800-289-5627 Read/Subscribe online at www.componentadvertiser.com FAX: 800-524-4982