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Don’t Forget! You Saw it in the
September 2017 #10218 Page #67
Lumber Briefs
LAYMAN'S LUMBER MARKET BRIEF Matt Layman, Publisher
By Matt Layman September 2017 Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
September Surge September Surge at Historically High Prices at September Surge...Normal
Historically High Prices To put things into perspective. Over the past
To put things into perspective. Over the past 15 To put things into perspective. Over the past 15 years, SYP 15years, years,SYP SYP2x4#2 2x4#2has hasexceeded exceededthis thisweek's week'sprice just 2x4#2 has exceeded this week’s price just four times. The highest price just four times. The highest was $442 in 2004 What exactly is the September Surge? It is an four times. The highest was $442 in 2004 ($42 was $442 in 2004 ($42 higher.) Canadian SPF only once, also ($42 higher.) Canadian SPF only once, also 2004 increase in lumber buying, reversing from summer higher.) Canadian SPF only once, also 2004 @ $470 2004 @ $470 ($85 higher). Dry Hem Fir, ditto...once, $465 ($35 @($85 $470higher.) ($85 higher.) DryFir, Hem Fir, ditto...once, Septemberliquidation Surge...Normal inventory to inventory accumulation to Dry Hem ditto...once, $465 ($35 higher). Green Doug Fir...Zero...2004 was $20 lower at $460. $465 ($35 Green higher). Green Doug Fir...Zero...2004 prepare for autumn. Weather begins to improve higher). Doug Fir...Zero...2004 was $20 lower What exactly is the September Surge? It is an increase in 7/16 OSB (I have more data) over the past 25 years has was $20 lower at $460. after August's sweltering heat and humidityat $460. lumber buying, reversing from summer inventory liquidation exceeded this week’s price of $335 only twice: 2003 @ $380 7/16 2525 restricting jobsite productivity. Builders begin their 7/16OSB OSB(I(Ihave havemore moredata) data)over overthe thepast past to inventory accumulation to prepare for autumn. Weather and 2004 @exceeded $400. this years, has scramble to dry in as much framing as possible in years, hasexceeded thisweek's week'sprice priceofof$335 $335only only begins to improve after August’s sweltering heat and humiditytwice; 2003 @ $380 and 2004 @ $400. preparation for winter. twice; 2003 @ $380high and 2004the@lumber $400.market has a history From historically prices, restricting jobsite productivity. Builders their scramble From historically prices, the lumber market The shift in buying strategies andbegin the increase in From historically highhigh prices atmark, this week, of declining. At that high 2004 water over the the next eleven to dry in as much framing as possible Surge, in preparation for winter. has a history of declining. At that 2004 high water demand creates the September historically lumber market has a history of declining. At that weeks SYP fell $45; SPF dropped $155; Dry Hem Fir collapsed the next weeks SYP eleven fell $45; SPF lifting prices higher through October. 2004 high water mark, over the next weeks The shift in buyingSeptember strategies and the increase in demand mark, $175;over Green Doug Fireleven eroded $185. $155; SPF Dry Hem Fir collapsed $175; Green SYP fell $155; Dry Hemafter Fir creates the September Surge, historically lifting prices higher dropped OSB$45; continueddropped to rally three more weeks the lumber Fir eroded $185. September Surge From Historically High Prices Doug collapsed $175; Green Doug Fir eroded $185. September through October. peak, up to $435, then fell $200 in seven weeks. Think on that OSB continued totorally more continued rallythree three moreweeks weeksafter after the asOSB you prepare for the September Surge. September Surge From Historically High Prices the lumber peak, up to $435, then fell $200 lumber peak, up to $435, then fell $200 in in seven There is a distinct difference between how our My play would be cover SYPprepare through midthe October. seven weeks. Think on to that asprepare you for weeks. Think on that as you for the lumber market handles the September Surge There is a distinct difference between how ourwhen lumber September EverythingSurge. else, justMy fill play in thewould gaps and it someSYP room. begive to cover September Surge. prices are at historical highs. Perceptively high prices market handles the September Surge when prices are at through mid October. Everything else, just fill in My play would ...ml be to cover SYP through mid can add to the rally, however real, quantifiable high Looking Forward historical highs. Perceptively high prices can add to the rally, the gaps and give it some price relationships have caused significant downside October. Everything else,room. just fill in the gaps and give however real, quantifiable high price relationships have caused A veteran lumberman, Matt Layman publishes Layman’s Lumber Guide, the itweekly someforecasts room.and buying advisories that help component manufacturers movement after themovement September significant downside afterSurge. the September Surge. Looking ...ml Forward ...ml saveLooking money onForward lumber purchases every day. You can reach Matt at 336-5166684 or matt@laymansguide.org. Composite (2x4's #2 SYP-E, SPF-W, Dry Hem Fir, Green Doug Fir.) Past 6 months-Current vs. (FTP) Forecasted Time & Price Vertical arrows project time-major turning weeks. Black squares forecast price direction.
Green Zone=Increasing Demand #02-30
Red Zone = Decreasing Demand Weeks #31-01
Yellow Zone=Daylight Savings Weeks #11 Through Week #44.
440 420 400 380 360 340
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