gop report

Republican National Committee November 14, 2012

CONFIDENTIAL

Paid for by the Republican National Committee.

310 First Street, SE | Washington, DC 20003 | www.gop.com Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

Who Voted?

123 million voted, down 8.5 million from 2008, up 1 million from 2004‌ Top Battlegrounds vs. 2008

In the 9 top Presidential battleground states, turnout was up 1%.

In the populous states of NY, NJ, TX, CA, and IL, turnout was down 14%.

Across the remainder of states, turnout was down 4%.

Colorado

+18,337

Florida

+80,314

Iowa

+35,582

Nevada

+43,257

New Hampshire

+785

North Carolina

+186,250

Ohio

-123,550

Virginia

+24,598

Wisconsin

+73,385 +338,958

What Happened: 2012 vs. 2008 Romney up over 2008, Obama down from 2008‌ Romney vs. 2008 Obama vs. 2008 Colorado

+51,802

-50,086

+116,550

-46,042

Iowa

+45,549

-12,511

Nevada

+49,595

-4,935

New Hampshire

+11,336

-16,297

North Carolina

+147,379

+35,737

Ohio

-84,041

-242,784

Virginia

+64,613

-54,004

+146,352

-63,261

+549,135

-454,183

Florida

Wisconsin

Million vote swing away from Obama in battlegrounds

Demographics of the Electorate Demographic change is real.

3 in 10 voters will be minorities in 2016.

81

77

74

72

10 7

11 8

13

13

9

10

2000

2004

2008

2012

Other

Hispanic

African American

White

28%

What Happened: 4 States In the end, less than 334k votes separated Governor Romney from the Presidency.

Romney Florida New Hampshire

Ohio Virginia

4,162,174 327,870 2,593,779 1,789,618

Obama

4,236,032 368,529 2,697,260 1,905,528

Margin

-73,858 -40,659 -103,481 -115,910 -333,908

What Happened – Late Deciders Obama had an edge among late deciders

-7 44%

WMR

51%

BO

Just Today (3%)

-5 45%

WMR

-1

+8

50%

48% 49%

BO

WMR

In the Last Few Days (6%)

BO

October (11%)

53%

WMR

-7

45%

46%

BO

WMR

53%

BO

September (9%) Before that (69%)

Data from the 2012 national Exit Poll among 26,565 respondents, conducted November 6, 2012.

6

What Else Happened – Exit Polls The ‘Gender Gap’ among whites narrowed toward the end of the campaign. Romney won white men by 27 and white women by 14.

Voters by a 15 point margin blamed President Bush over President Obama for the state of the economy.

Voters preferred a candidate whose policies favored the “middle class”, and 10% more voters felt Obama’s policies favored the middle class.

Obama’s hurricane response provided a bump. 42% said it was the “most important” or “an important” factor in their vote, and Obama won them by more than a 2:1 margin.

What Happened - Demographics Improvement over 2008 & 2004 among whites and independents.

2000 Independents

+2

Whites

+12

African Americans

-81

Hispanics

-27

Asians Young Voters

2004 -1

2008 -8

2012 +5

+12

-14

+17 -77 -9 -12

-27

+20 -87 -44 -47

-2

-9

-34

-23

-91 -36

What Happened?

Florida – 238,000 more Hispanic voters participated than in 2008 and Obama got 60% of Hispanics.

Obama’s margin of victory was 78,000.

Ohio – Romney won independents by 10, but there were more Democrats. African American turnout increased by 178,000 and Obama got 96% of them.

Obama’s margin of victory was 103,000.

Virginia – Romney improved with independents (+11), and white voters (+24), but it was not enough.

Obama’s margin of victory was 113,000.

Colorado – 147,000 more young voters participated than in 2008, and Obama increased his share of the Hispanic vote from 61% in 2008 to 75% in 2012.

Obama’s margin of victory was 113,000.

RNC Ground Game – Volunteer Activity Volunteer Phone Dials: 50,000,000 volunteer phone dials in Victory program states.

Door-to-Door: 15,000,000 million door-todoor contacts in Victory program states.

120,000 volunteers in 285 offices working to turn out Republicans.

RNC Ground Game - Voter ID 22.5 million data points collected from 5.5 million voters in Battleground states.

8.6 million data points collected by volunteers.

13.9 million data points collected through paid efforts.

RNC Senate Support Funded the ground game in FL, NV, OH, VA, WI.

Funded the paid walk program in MT & ND. Funded the direct mail program for Tommy Thompson’s campaign in WI. Funded paid GOTV phone program in AZ & IN Funded the mail program in IN.

RNC Senate Support Funded infrastructure in MT and ND. Provided infrastructure to help Linda Lingle campaign in HI. Nearly $4 million direct cash to NRSC from the Romney/RNC JFC.

Where do we go from here?

We’ll conduct a deep dive into what worked what didn’t…

Conduct post-election survey and focus groups to evaluate message and tactics.

Meet with state leaders, donors, and leaders of key coalition groups to collect their analyses.

Meet with 3rd party groups to learn about outside efforts.

Collect after action reports from all managers and 700 field staff.

Solicit feedback from our volunteers and keep them engaged.

Conduct independent reviews of our ground game, data resources, and digital program.

Create a team to take an in-depth look at what Obama did.