180419 UKBEAG Roundtable

‘Towards a common future.

Building capacity to respond to rapid urbanisation in the Commonwealth’

A roundtable hosted by Bob Neil MP and convened by the UK Built Environment Advisory Group on behalf of the Commonwealth Association of Architects, the Commonwealth Association of Planners and the Prince’s Foundation.

Agenda 9:30 9.35 9:45 9:50 10:05 10:20 11:20 11:30

Welcome Introductions Scene setting ‘Survey of Profession’ ‘Rapid Urbanisation Toolkit’ Roundtable discussion Summing up and next steps Meeting close

Agenda 9:30 9.35 9:45 9:50 10:05 10:20 11:20 11:30

Welcome Introductions Scene setting ) The evidence ‘Survey of Profession’ ) The resource ‘Rapid Urbanisation Toolkit’ ) A solution Roundtable discussion Summing up and next steps Meeting close

Scene setting

COP21, Paris, 2015

World Humanitarian Summit, 2016

UN Sustainable Development Goals, 2030

CO21, Paris, 2015

Habitat III, 2016

Quito, Ecudaor

World Urban Forum, 2017

Quito, Ecudaor

UN Habitat World Urbanisation Prospects

Meeting the challenge of climate change

Delhi, India

Creating liveable cities

Promoting healthy communities

Contributing to Global Competitiveness Eight Pillars • Pillar 1: Institutions • Pillar 2: Infrastructure • Pillar 3: Macroeconomic Environment • Pillar 4: Health & Primary Education • Pillar 5: Higher Education & Training • Pillar 6: Goods Market Efficiency • Pillar 7: Labour Market Efficiency • Pillar 8: Financial Market Development • Pillar 9: Technological Readiness • Pillar 10: Market Size • Pillar 11: Business Sophistication • Pillar 12: Innovation

Source: ‘The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-13’, World Economic Forum

Urbanisation in less developed countries

Between 2015 and 2050 the urban population in Less Developed Countries will increase by 2.35 billion, or 18 times the expected increase of 130 million in More Developed Countries. Source: NYU

Urbanisation in less developed countries 35% Share of 2015 Urban Population

Share of the Urban Population by Region

30% Share of 2050 Urban Population 25% Share of the increase in urban population, 2015-2050 20%

15%

10%

5%

0% Eastern asia Southeast and the pacific Asia

South and Western Asia Sub-Saharan Latin America Europe and Central Asia and North Africa and the Japan Africa Caribbean

Land Rich Developed Countries

Most of the increase in the urban population between 2015-2050 will be in the cities of Sub-Saharan Africa (33%) and South Asia (25%). Source: NYU

Urbanisation in less developed countries

There were 4,231 cities of 100,000 inhabitants or more in 2010.

Of these 3,116 were in Less Developed Countries. Of these 2,783 had less than 1 Million. Of these 763 grew at more than 3,6% per year, the rate at which they can be expected to double their population in 20 years, Source: NYU

Urbanisation in less developed countries

There are no significant differences in growth rates between small cities and large cities. Not only large cities are growing rapidly. Smaller cities should also receive technical assistance. Source: NYU

Cities are expanding rapidly

Between 1991 and 2014, the population of Accra, Ghana grew by a factor of 3.4 (from 1.3 to 4.4 Million); its Urban Extent grew by a factor of 6.5 (from 132km2 to 872km2). Source: NYU

Cities are expanding rapidly Factor by which population or urban extent increasd, 1990-2014

7 Population

Urban Extent

6

5

4

`

3

2

1

0

Less Developed Countries

More Developed Countries

World

Globally, Urban Extents are Growing faster than Populations. Urban Extents of cities in Less Developed Countries grew by a (median) factor of 4.2 between 1990-2014. Their populations grew by a (median) factor of 2.6. Source: NYU

Cities are expanding rapidly

Richer cities have larger Urban Extents; In 2015, Paris had almost the same population but 10 times de GDP as that of Lagos. As a consequence Paris had 3.5 times the Urban Extent of Lagos. Source: NYU

Urbanisation in less developed countries

Source: ‘CIA Factbook’, 2015

Urbanisation by country

Source: ‘CIA Factbook’, 2015

The Commonwealth • • • • • • • •

53 independent countries promoting development, democracy and peace 2.4 billion people, 60% of whom are aged 29 or under The Commonwealth spans the globe and includes both advanced economies and developing countries. It encompasses Africa (19 countries), Asia (7), the Caribbean and Americas (13), Europe (3), and the Pacific (11).

30 members are small states, usually with a population under 1.5 million, and 24 members are small island developing states.

Nauru is the smallest member country with a population of about 10,000.

The most populous country is India with over 1.2 billion people.

The combined GDP of Commonwealth countries is estimated at US$10.4 trillion in 2017 and predicted to reach US$13 trillion in 2020.

Half of the top 20 global emerging cities are in the Commonwealth: New Delhi, Mumbai, Nairobi, Kuala Lumpur, Bangalore, Johannesburg, Kolkata, Cape Town, Chennai and Dhaka.

Many small and developing Commonwealth countries are among those with the lowest ecological footprints worldwide.

Survey of the architectural profession Survey respondents: • • • • •

Africa Botswana, Ghana, South Africa and Uganda.

Asia Bangladesh, Hong Kong*, Malaysia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Caribbean and Americas Antigua and Barbuda and Canada Europe Cyprus, Malta and the United Kingdom Pacific Australia and New Zealand

*While Hong Kong is no longer part of the Commonwealth, the HKIA remains a member of the CAA

Survey of the architectural profession Canada UK

Malta Cyprus

Pakistan Bangladesh

Antigua and Barbuda Ghana Uganda

Survey respondents: 16 countries, (4 of which are OECD countries, 5 of which are ODA recipients, 1 of which is a small island state) 5 Commonwealth regions Over 685 million population

Sri Lanka Malaysia

Australia

New Zealand

Survey of the architectural profession Contents

10. Education and Training

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

• • • •

Introduction Executive Summary Commonwealth Context Principle Findings Next Steps Survey Method Survey Results

8. The Association/Chamber/Institute • • • • • • • •

Details of the National Association/Chamber/Institute Organisation of the National Association/Chamber/Institute Membership numbers and growth rates Membership numbers by category of membership Membership fees by category of membership Membership of international and regional associations Use of Student Competitions

9. The Profession • • • • • • • • • •

Regulation of the profession Regulation governing supplanting and advertising Number of registered architects and graduates in each country Legal forms of association permitted in each country Average annual salaries Licensing requirements Building permit requirements Use of mandatory fee scales Types of fee agreements permitted Professional indemnity insurance requirements

Number and types of schools of architecture Reciprocal education agreements National validation authority Requirements for Continuing Professional Development

11. The Market • • •

Construction market size Change in the demand for architectural services Recent events affecting the local market for architectural services

12. Architecture and Government Context • • • • • • • • • • •

Government engagement with the profession Public sector procurement Public sector design competitions Planning legislation Building code Health and safety legislation Sustainable development goals Renewable energy and energy efficiency policies Other government policies Climate change legislation Embracing the New Urban Agenda

13. Challenges and Opportunities • •

Summary responses Associated comments

Registered architects & total members 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0

Registered Architects 2016

Total Members 2016

Architects per 1,000 population United Kingdom

0.580

Australia

0.532

Hong Kong

0.458

New Zealand

0.390

Canada

0.263

Antigua and Barbuda

0.235

South Africa

0.067

Malaysia

0.062

Sri Lanka

0.054

Botswana

0.042

Pakistan

0.029

Bangladesh

0.019

Ghana

0.017

Uganda

0.004

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

Rates of urbanisation Malta

0.32%

Cyprus

0.84%

United Kingdom

0.82%

Australia Hong Kong New Zealand

1.37% 0.64% 0.98%

Canada

1.16%

Antigua -0.38% and Barbuda South Africa

1.33%

Malaysia

2.19%

Sri Lanka

1.11%

Botswana

1.38%

Pakistan

2.77%

Bangladesh

3.19%

Ghana

3.07%

Uganda -1.00%

0.00%

5.30% 1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

Architects and Urbanisation -0.1

0

Registered Architects per thousand Population 0.2 0.3

0.1

United Kingdom

0.532

0.64%

New Zealand

0.6 0.580

1.37%

Hong Kong

0.458 0.98%

Canada

0.390

1.16%

Antigua and Barbuda

0.263 0.235

South Africa

0.067

Malaysia

1.33%

0.062

Sri Lanka

-1.0%

0.5

0.82%

Australia

Botswana

0.4

2.19%

0.054

1.11%

0.042

Pakistan

0.029

Bangladesh

0.019

Ghana

0.017

Uganda

0.004

0.0%

1.38% 2.77% 3.19% 3.07% 5.30%

1.0%

2.0% 3.0% Rate of Urbanisation (%)

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

So, how many architects do we need?

Figures from OECD countries suggest a ratio of 0.44 arch/1,000 population.

Applying such a figure to the urban population of Uganda produces the following: A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. L. M.

Total population, (assumed 2018) : 42,863,000 Urbanisation % (assumed 2018) : 16.8% Urban population : 7,200,984 Number of existing architects : 178 Total number of architects required : 3,168 Shortfall in the number of architects (2018) : 2,990 est.

Population growth : 3.2% Urban growth per annum : 5.3% Total population (2019) : 44,234,616 Urbanisation % (2019) : 17.69% Urban population (2019) : 7,431,415 Total number of architects required (2019) : 3,442 Additional architects required (2019) : 275 est.

(A x B) (C x 0.44) (D – E) (A + (A x G) (B + (B x H) (I x J) (K x 0.44) (L – E)

So, how many architects do we need?

Country

Bangladesh Botswana Ghana Malaysia Pakistan South Africa Sri Lanka

Urban population 2018 (est) 58,951,860 1,329,360 15,945,202 24,034,240 78,215.352 37,268,462 3,940,870

Indicative Additional Urban Additional shortfall, 2018 population 2019 requirement, (est) (est) 2019 (est) 22,850 489 6,532 8,618 28,778 12,626 579

2,513,222 39,235 846,151 862,830 3,316,027 869,535 74,027

1,106 17 372 380 1,459 383 33

Schools of architecture 50

46

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

33 30 24 18 12 9 6

4

4

3

2

2

1

1

0

Schools of architecture United Kingdom

0.580

Australia

0.532

Hong Kong

0.74

0.458

New Zealand

0.82

0.390

Canada

0.263

South Africa

0.067

Malaysia

0.062

Sri Lanka

0.63

0.33

0.16 0.76

0.0540.09

Botswana

0.042

Pakistan

0.44

0.029

Bangladesh

0.17

0.019

Ghana Uganda

0.70

0.18

0.017 0.07 0.004

0.000

0.09 0.100

0.200

0.300

Schools per million population

0.400

0.500

0.600

Architects per thousand population

0.700

0.800

0.900

Built Environment Policy

Implemented Effectively 43%

Fit for Purpose 71%

Planning Policy

Implemented Effectively 36%

Fit for Purpose 71%

Building Code

Built Environment Policy 0

1

2

Sustainable Development Goals Developed?

Effective SDG Implementation Plan?

COP21 Targets Developed?

Effective COP21 Implementaion Plan?

Embraced the New Urban Agenda?

Effective NUA Implementation Plan?

Effective Health and Safety Standards Developed?

Effective Renewable Energy Policies Developed?

Effective Inclusive Design Standards Developed?

Anti-Bribery Corruption Legislation?

Sustainable Design Construction Standards?

National Construction Strategy?

National BIM Strategy?

Smart Cities Strategy?

City Resilience Strategies?

Disaster Management Plans Developed?

YES

NO

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Challenges facing the built profession What are the most important challenges facing the profession and the built environment?

• Lack of effective built environment legislation, especially poor spatial planning together with outdated building regulations, poorly implemented and enforced.

• Urban sprawl, poor public transport and lack of investment in infrastructure • Housing and land shortages coupled with affordability.

• Sustainability, including climate change, climate adaptation and resilience

What are the most important challenges facing architectural education in your country?

• Lack of education provision, insufficient teaching staff coupled with the high cost of education at home and abroad.

• High student/teacher ratios, poorly funded faculties.

• Balancing time for teaching design with the increasing focus on technology.

• Building stronger links between education and practice.

Changes in salaries, working hours and conditions over the past ten years?

• Working conditions appear to have improved marginally but with long working hours and tight programmes despite advances in technology.

• Salaries appear to have flat-lined or marginally declined over the period in a number of countries.

• There appear to be better opportunities for women than there were 10 years ago.

What are the most important challenges facing the profession?

• Corruption, public procurement practices, low fees and a reliance on design and build.

• Achieving design quality in the face of strong development pressures combined with poor construction technology.

• Lack of opportunity for young architects and small practices, aggravated by cross border trading practices and an influx of large international firms.

• Lack of respect/recognition for the profession caused partly by an inability to demonstrate its value coupled with weak regulation of the profession in some countries.

What respondents want the CAA to do?

• Advocate the value of architecture and its importance in terms of place making and urban design.

• Advocate the value of architecture to government together with policies which support the profession, eg procurement practices, fees etc • Develop guidance for cross-border practice.

• Promote internship/exchange programmes between member countries at both faculty and student level.

• Provide scholarships for talented students in financial hardship.

• Organise regional competitions to help tackle real-world issues and help secure funding to deliver projects.

Professional Associations*

*Built Environment Professions in the Commonwealth. Institutes highlighted in green are members of their respective Commonwealth association, ie CAA, CEC, CAP or CASLE.

UK National Security Strategy, 2015 The National Security Context: “Many drivers of instability are likely to persist over the medium to long term, including social inequality and exclusion, demographic changes, rapid and unplanned urbanisation, climate change, and global economic and other shocks. This is why we have chosen to focus more of our development effort on building stability overseas in fragile states.”

“We are creating a Prosperity Fund of £1.3 billion over the next five years to promote the economic reform and development needed for growth in partner countries.

Source: ‘National Security Strategy and Strategic

Our priorities will include improving the business climate, competitiveness and operation of markets, and2015’ financial Defence and Securityenergy Review sector reform, and increasing the ability of partner governments to tackle corruption.

WEF Global Risks Report 2018 Global Risks: Environmental • • •

Extreme weather events Failure of climate change, mitigation and adaptation Major natural disasters

Societal •

Failure of urban planning: Poorly planned cities, urban sprawl and associated infrastructure that create social, environmental and health challenges

Global Trends: •

Rising urbanisation: Rising number of people, living in urban areas resulting in the physical growth of cities.

Source: ‘The Global Risks Report, 2018, 13th Edition’, World Economic Forum

Cities Alliance Capacity Benchmarking Local Authority staffing benchmarks: 1 x Chief Planner if 2 or more Planners 3 x Planner/Assistant Planner 1 x Assistant Planner/15,000 population Staffing gaps by function: • • • •

Ethiopia Mozambique Uganda Ghana

: 118 Planners : 388 Planners : 115 Planners : 857 Planners

Source: ‘Human Resources Capacity Benchmarking, Cities Alliance, 2017

Survey of the town planning profession

CAP Membership Australia

Jamaica

Saint Lucia

Bangladesh

Kenya

Singapore

Barbados

Malawi

South Africa

Belize

Malaysia

Sri Lanka

Brunei Darussalam

Malta

Tanzania

Canada

Mauritius

Trinidad & Tobago

Cyprus

Namibia

Uganda

Dominica

New Zealand

United Kingdom

Ghana

Nigeria

Zambia

India

CAP represents over 40,000 planners in 28 countries in the Commonwealth

Survey of the planning profession Survey respondents: • Africa Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia • Asia India, Malaysia, Mauritius.

• Caribbean and Americas Barbados, Belize, Canada, Trinidad & Tobago • Europe Malta, United Kingdom • Pacific Australia, Fiji, New Zealand

Population per Planner

Number of Town Planning Schools

Student members United Kingdom* Canada* Australia* Nigeria* South Africa* Malaysia* New Zealand* Zambia* Namibia * Trinidad and Tobago* Barbados* Mauritius* Malta* Belize* 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Key challenges

Poverty

Natural disasters

Inefficient sprawl

Rapid urbanisation Climate change

Affordable housing

Aging infrastructure

Ageing population Non implementation of laws

Gender balance in the profession Highest % female planners Belize

70

Fiji

54

Barbados

54

Zambia

48

Highest % male planners Malta

85

Nigeria

75

South Africa

70

India

68

Where planners work

SDG’s and the New Urban Agenda Survey found a generally good understanding of the SDGs

Only 35% of respondents said their governments had embraced New Urban Agenda

85% of respondents felt their governments had appropriate SDG targets

Planning for rapid urbanisation

The global challenge The world’s urban population is set to rise from 3.4 to 6.4 billion people in 35 years and the greatest challenge will be to plan efficient and well designed settlements that allow communities to thrive.

Failure to do so will result in billions of people living in unplanned settlements or slums, increasingly remote from basic services and employment opportunities.

Over half of the growth will be in secondary cities and so focusing on how to plan their urban extensions could have great impact.

Complexity

Planning for rapid urbanisation

Source: ‘A Toolkit for Mayors and Urban Practitioners’; Prince’s Foundation

Planning for rapid urbanisation

Design charrette, Sierra Leone

Planning for rapid urbanisation

Planning for rapid urbanisation

Planning for rapid urbanisation

Planning for rapid urbanisation

Mapping your city, Bo, Sierra Leone

Planning for rapid urbanisation

Planning for rapid urbanisation

Initial implementation

Initial implementation

Community types

Acton programming of testing

Initiative Launched at CAP Conference 2016

Tested and developed with first pilot city

Initial structured toolkit

Action programme in three contrasting contexts

Developing online toolkit

Adapted for use by education institutions as online module

‘Towards a common future.

Building capacity to respond to rapid urbanisation in the Commonwealth’

A roundtable hosted by Bob Neil MP and convened by the UK Built Environment Advisory Group on behalf of the Commonwealth Association of Architects, the Commonwealth Association of Planners and the Prince’s Foundation.