Introduction

This book presents an analysis of megatrends and emerging issues that will strongly influence different spheres of life in many countries and at different levels, covering political, economic, natural environmental, social, and cultural dimensions.

To identify megatrends, we used the Pentagon Model, a framework developed by Berthold Kuhn in the context of his research and teaching activities at Freie Universität Berlin. It focuses on five criteria to prioritize big trends: (1) level of coverage by research activities, (2) level of political attention, (3) level of interest to global investors and business communities, (4) level of media coverage, and (5) attention paid by social movements.

The analyses of the twelve prioritized megatrends that we identified are based on a comprehensive review of reports on economic, technological, socio-cultural, and political developments, on various exchanges with think tanks and international organizations, and on a series of interviews with analysts and researchers from different countries and world regions with various disciplinary and professional backgrounds, and a mix of age groups and genders.

This book aims to analyze the relevance and the potential impact of twelve megatrends, but it also presents a critical reflection on different aspects of these trends. We make due reference to the work of international organizations, especially the United Nations, leading think tanks, research networks, and experts. The motivation to write this book stemmed from our passion to understand the challenges and opportunities that humanity faces in the next decade, and to learn about new research, business models, and initiatives trying to make the world a better place. Translating this passion into easily digestible and well-communicated writing to inform those interested in the future is at the heart of this book.

Berthold Kuhn’s engagement with trends has provided him a rich variety of beneficial insights across a range of issues. His proven record in forecasting key developments and emerging issues related to climate action and sustainable finance, among other

trends, and his extensive contacts with leading researchers and analysts from different world regions motivated him to write this book. He works at Freie Universität (FU) Berlin and as an adviser to international cooperation agencies and think tanks. He is a father of three children and currently lives with his family in Berlin, but has worked and lived in many cities on different continents. The book benefited from many vivid discussions with co-author Dimitrios Margellos, who produced the summaries of the expert interviews and made some substantial contributions to the chapters on Inequality, Digitalization, and Health. Furthermore, the book benefited from exchanges with colleagues and students at FU Berlin and FU Berlin’s partner universities.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its global economic and social consequences have triggered a new wave of interest in future risks and trends. COVID-19 has made it clear to many of us that crisis situations can accelerate change. Millions of lives have been lost. Family life and work have been disrupted. The lockdowns have caused financial disasters, companies and nations have faced innumerable challenges, and the lives of many people have been decimated. However, the restrictions have also sparked innovations and raised the importance and acceptance of research and researchers in public opinion.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine shocked people in Europe and across the world during the time the co-authors completed the manuscript of this book. The massive economic sanctions launched by the United States (U.S.), the European Union (EU) and many countries, will heavily impact on trade, economic and political cooperation. They were meant to halt Putin’s expansionist military operations, but will have serious repercussions on Europe and other parts of the world, too. The co-authors have predicted more geopolitical assertions in the context of an increasingly multi-polar world order (chapter 12). While the analysis remains valid, the war in Ukraine goes against conventional wisdom and poses more questions than anybody has answers for.

The Russian economy was relatively disconnected from many important megatrends which may have added to Russia’s

geopolitical assertion by military means. Under the current regime this trend will not be reversed, and Russia and its closest allies will bear dire consequences of its decoupling with many powerful economies.

This book will also pay due attention to the rise of China, which has challenged Western societies, economic policies, and political systems in many ways. China’s growing influence is subject to a significant number of expert analyses. Graham Allison coined the term “the Thucydides Trap” which refers to the likelihood of violent encounters between a rising power and an incumbent hegemon. The former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer is one of many authors who refer to the analysis of Thucydides, one of the greatest historians, on the rise of a rival power.

The rise of China has indeed surprised most political scientists. China has been underestimated for a long time, especially by political scientists in the United States and Europe. For decades now, China has been increasing its influence all over the world and in international relations, but it is now faced with growing attempts to curtail its influence in the context of systemic rivalry declared by the United States and the European Union. However, we refrain from overestimating China and neglecting development in other parts of the world. We have interviewed experts from many different countries and world regions to present diverse perspectives on megatrends. Global governance will be more multipolar than in the form of world order we have experienced in recent decades. This book is meant to provide a framework for reflection and analysis of trends that will shape the future of humanity.