Hopeful signs in the economic malaise

Financial Strategies

It is di cult to see a way out of the current economic malaise. e markets are up, then they are down. ere will be a new debt ceiling but at what cost? We have been hearing about a recession for over a year but now some economists are backpedaling. What is going on and how do investors navigate these clouds? Oh, and the weather is not helping the mood much either.

We are dealing with one of the rainiest spring seasons on record, one of the highest federal de cits in history and the longest anticipated recession ever. No wonder no one wants to start a new job, buy a house, or invest in virtually anything.

But there are some green shoots. e stock market seems immune to most of the bad news based on the ve tech stocks leading the returns. If you look under the hood, many average stock prices are down in value so far this year despite the broad markets buoyed by a few stocks that were hit hard last year, namely Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. ese ve stocks are the largest market-cap names in the S&P 500 representing 24.7% of the overall weight of that index.¹

Despite the mixed signals investors are experiencing, it may be helpful to hear some positive facts to lighten the heavy political and economic news lately.²

• In ation has calmed down in 2023.

• Corporate earnings were better than expected in the rst quarter.

• We continue to see strong employ- ment levels.

• Retirees are bene ting from the previous government payments and the higher interest rates on bond portfolios.

• Capital spending is holding up given the infrastructure spending bills passed to keep our technology sector competitive, restore our infrastructure and incent re-onshoring of companies’ supply chains.

• Consumer spending has increased, especially on travel and entertainment.

• e economy is experiencing pockets of weakness this cycle, unlike the boom-and-bust periods of years past when every industry group seemed to su ocate at the same time. For example, residential housing is soft but multifamily housing is on re, so overall construction employment continues to rise.

• Productivity is troughing follow- ing an unusually high labor force quit rate. Once workers stay on the job for a while, they will become more productive quickly. Dramatic improvements in technology, like AI, will also drive productivity gains. ese positive indicators could be keeping us from falling into recession, however the debate is still open for a hard versus soft landing. Investors should use this time to update their nancial plans and build a portfolio strategy for the opportunity to take advantage of more green shoots. would Ranch of the speci county would rentals ing castlerockbahais@gmail.com castlerock.local.bahai.us/ would be prohibited in Highlands Ranch and the Pinery area south of Parker, for example, because the planned developments do not speci cally allow them, according to county sta .

1. Ned Davis Research as of May 31, 2023.

2. William Greiner, CFP, Mariner Wealth Advisors chief economist. Je Krumpelman, CFA, Mariner Wealth Advisors chief investment strategist.

Patricia Kummer is managing director for Mariner Wealth Advisors.

Plus, homeowners associations would be able to prohibit short-term rentals under the ordinance, according to county sta .

Ins and outs of proposal e law would allow for local

“agents,” such as an individual or the representative of a property management company, who may be someone other than the property owner, to serve as the management of the short-term rental unit.

( e property owner may appoint themselves as the local agent.)

Asked whether the ordinance includes a requirement that shortterm rental license holders be occupants of the property they are renting out, a statement from county sta said: “ ere is not an owner occupancy requirement.” e ordinance would include a long list of rules, such as the follow- ing:

• For properties that contain a detached single-family home and an additional residence of any kind — such as a guest house or a caretaker residence — the owner would be allowed to use only one residence as a short-term rental property.

• e motor vehicles and trailers of all occupants of the short-term rental property “shall be able to be accommodated on the permitted and approved driveway” of the property. No motor vehicles or trailers “shall be parked on the vegetated areas” of the property.

• e county would also be able to inspect the property to enforce the law’s requirements, including by the Douglas County Sheri ’s O ce, and may enter “at all reasonable times.” e ordinance “shall not apply to” homes that are not leased more than 14 days in a calendar year and not advertised as a short-term rental on a regular basis, the draft text says.

• Any person who violates any provision of the ordinance would face a ne of $250 for a rst violation, $500 for a second violation and $1,000 for the third and subsequent violations. If passed, the law would will have some exceptions to who has to follow regulations.