5 minute read
Thursday, Oct. 28 with Je Baker, Commissioner District
Colorado state Sen. Brittany Pettersen, DLakewood, meets with other lawmakers in the Colorado Senate chambers before attending the state of the state address by Gov. Jared Polis in January 2020.
PHOTO BY KATHRYN SCOTT/ SPECIAL TO THE COLORADO SUN
MAPS
In 2024, Democrats would have a solid advantage in fi ve of the eight open seats, while two Democratic and one Republican incumbents would fi nd themselves in tossup districts. Democrat Sen. Chris Kolker of Centennial would wind up with a competitive margin, in District 16.
‘Whiplash for some’
Some current members of the House are also eyeing open seats.
State Rep. Kevin Van Winkle, a Highlands Ranch Republican, has fi led to run for the open Senate District 30 seat, which will be vacated by Sen. Chris Holbert, who is termlimited.
In the state House, 16 seats would be open in 2022 due to redistricting, term limits or members running for higher offi ce, with a relatively even advantage for the two parties. Seven Democratic incumbents face competitive battles, compared with one Republican.
Five Republicans and three Democrats would also be living in the same district as another incumbent. With 31 safe Democratic seats and only 19 safe GOP seats, Republicans face an uphill battle.
“Some of these races are very safe districts, and all of a sudden, are very competitive. That’s going to be whiplash for some of these representatives,” Sandberg, the GOP consultant, said.
Rep. Tom Sullivan of Aurora, a Democrat who has faced recall threats over his advocacy for gun control laws, would live in House District 61, the second most competitive district under the new map.
Rep. Colin Larson, a moderate Republican from Ken Caryl who has considered a run for U.S. House would also live in a competitive district.
Meanwhile, two Democratic incumbents, Rep. Kerry Tipper of Lakewood and Rep. Lisa Cutter of Littleton, would live in House District 28, an open toss-up district.
Both Tipper and Cutter also live in the open Senate District 20. But, like most lawmakers, Tipper said she hasn’t made a decision yet on if and where she will run in 2022.
“(The) goal is to decide by December,” Tipper said.
The state Senate is Republicans’ best hope for gaining traction, and nine seats will be open in 2022 with Republicans and Democrats having a solid shot at four districts each, with one a tossup.
Eight House members and six senators are term-limited in 2022, opening up several seats.
In recent years, typically four to fi ve Senate seats and a handful of House seats have been competitive. It appears that could increase under the new legislative maps.
Democrats now hold a 20-25 majority in the state Senate, but at least nine seats will be competitive over the next two years. They hold a 41-24 advantage in the House, where nine seats would be considered tossups in 2022.
“It is very hard to comment on these maps before they’re fi nished,” said Matt McGovern, executive director of the Democratic House Majority Project. “However, there will be a number of districts that are much closer.”
‘A bit arrogant’
After the last round of redistricting in 2011, Democrats seized control of the state House away from Republicans in the 2012 election, increasing their margins the rest of the decade. But Republicans took back the state Senate in 2014 and held it until 2018.
The split chambers prevented both Republicans and Democrats from enacting what some would see as partisan legislation, from banning abortion on the right to abolishing the death penalty on the left, something that was accomplished under Democratic control in 2020.
Democratic consultant Ian Silverii noted that Colorado has changed in the past decade.
“Colorado 2022 is not Colorado 2014,” he said. “Despite their efforts, it doesn’t seem like Republicans were able to gerrymander the state. (The maps) seem pretty fair; we’ll fi nd out if they are next November.”
Republicans are holding out hope, however, that the new districts could lead to a majority in the Senate.
Sandberg, the GOP consultant, thinks Republicans could win four, maybe even six, competitive seats in the state Senate. With strong candidates and a focus on issues like crime, cost of living and schools, Republicans could regain control of the chamber, he argues.
“Democrats have gotten a bit arrogant and see Republicans as an afterthought,” Sandberg said. Competitive districts will also force lawmakers to consider a broader range of voters in their legislation. “You could be set up for a very interesting 2023 in Colorado.”
This story is from The Colorado Sun, a journalist-owned news outlet based in Denver and covering the state. For more, and to support The Colorado Sun, visit coloradosun.com. The Colorado Sun is a partner in the Colorado News Conservancy, owner of Colorado Community Media. Arapahoe County is the fastest-growing county in Colorado, which increases the need to update the County’s transportation infrastructure. Join us for a series of virtual conversations about transportation in Arapahoe County and how it impacts your daily life.
Upcoming dates:
Tuesday, Nov. 9 with Carrie Warren-Gully,
Commissioner District 1
Details at arapahoegov.com/
townhall.
Upcoming Election
From state and local ballot measures to city council and school board races across Arapahoe County, the 2021 Coordinated Election this November will decide issues and candidates that will shape your community’s future. Visit arapahoevotes.com
BOARD & BARREL
Dec. 4, Noon-6 p.m Arapahoe County Fairgrounds
Early-bird tickets now on sale for Board & Barrel, a unique wintertime event featuring a snowboarding rail jam and Colorado’s finest barrel-aged libations. Catch some rays and enjoy premium adult beverages, s’mores, great vendors and vibes, and some cool tricks and flips. Visit arapahoecountyfair.com/boardandbarrel
