Slow Train a Comin’

You may have waited by the railroad tracks in your younger years, watching a train far off in the distance, as it appeared to be slowly approaching the crossing. It was awesome to feel and see the huge, rumbling, metal cars as they raced past and made their way into the distance. Seemed like it took forever to finally arrive and then it seemed to be gone just as quickly.

That’s the way I look at our current state of the economy. Rumblings of a recession have been slowly approaching for months. Data such as continuing and initial unemployment claims are spiking at percentage rates that have always coincided with recessions.* Commercial loan activity has fallen dramatically^, the interest rate curve is highly inverted (short term rates much higher than long term rates)^* and the prime rate has spiked to 8.25%.^^ These types of metrics have consistently coincided with recessions.

But, it appears we aren’t there yet. In general, people are still spending freely and, as I type (June 13th), the stock market is rocketing upward, which goes to show one shouldn’t invest based on current data. My bet is we will get a recession and a subsequent pullback. Of course, “price” will always be the guide.

In this era of high interest and high inflation, maybe it’s time to review your investments to see if you are prepared for the next 5 years, which will most certainly be different than the last 5. One can link gains to the major stock indexes while reducing one’s risks substantially.*^ Fixed rates of 5%+ are also available. To learn more, please visit our website and/or call for a 15 minute no obligation, no fee discussion.

interest accounts and strategies linked to gains in the indexes with reduced^^ or no risk

• High net worth tax and income planning including de-ferred comp type plans using COLI