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Article: "Using the Monte Carlo Method with Crash Event Data," Barrette, R.

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2012 Vol.7 Iss.1

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ollision C The International Compendium for Crash Research

Volume 7 Issue 1

"Your team is feeling the pressure of being called out to measure the scene of a crash on a busy section of major freeway. Traffic is backing up and you still have at least another hour of data collection to do. Once you are finally done and the road is cleared, you head back to upload the data collected to your computer and start diagramming when a moment of panic strikes. In a hurry to finish, a few key total station points were missed."

Avoid this situation with 3D laser scanning and Virtual Total Station What is Virtual Total Station? From the comfort and safety of your desk, navigate within a 3D scan and 'shoot' measurement points you deem important. Create a printable measurement log showing X,Y,Z position of points, just as you would with a manual total station.

· Increase officer safety by taking measurements at your computer · No traverse when a point isn't in the line of sight, simply click on any point in the scan · At any time, capture a measurement that may have been overlooked To find out more about the benefits of 3D laser scanning and the Virtual Total Station contact Visual Statement today.

Volume 7, Issue 1 - Spring 2012

· Keep time in the field to a minimum by cutting data collection time

Collision: The International Compendium for Crash Research

THE VIRTUAL TOTAL STATION

Spring 2012

Becoming an Effective Expert Witness Mock Admissibility Hearing Using CDR Accuracy of Toyota EDRs Information Analysis for the Collision Analyst

Plus Articles from the

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Contents Spring 2012

inside

Volume 7 Issue 1

4

Letter From the Editor

6

NAPARS: Letter From the President

8

Training Calendar

22

features 10

Accident Reconstruction of an Unwitnessed Bicycle Mishap

by Timothy Joganich 22

A Method for Creating Photograph Textured Planes and Camera Positions in HVE Simulations

50

by Brad R. Shults 38

Using the Monte Carlo Method with Crash Event Data

50

Accuracy of Toyota Event Data Recorders

66

Becoming an Effective Expert Witness

70

Transcript of the CDR Summit Mock Admissibility Hearing for Trial Preparation

by Roger W. Barrette by Richard R. Ruth by William J. Melkonian

by Ron Zacapa 76

Information Analysis for the Collision Analyst

84

Cdr Data From More Than One Car? Fitting It All Together

84

by Jerry S. Ogden, Mathew Martonovich, Zachariah Weimer, and Katrina M. Kloberdanz

by Raymond Wangler 92

Close-Range Photogrammetry for Sightline Obstruction Determination

by Lee DeChant and Gary Cooper 100

Toyota, Lexus, and Scion CDR Coverage

110

Using Data from a DriveCam Video Event Recorder to Reconstruct a Hard Braking Event

by Kent E. Boots

100

by Nathan A. Rose, William T.C. Neale and Neal R. Carter

opinion 121

Peer Review

by Raymond M. Brach, R. Matthew Brach, Jarrod Carter, Joseph Marsh, Donald Parker, Chris Van Ee, and Michael Varat

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Collision Magazine 3


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Find out more about the next EDR User’s Summit at EDRSummit.com


Monte Carlo Method

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bstract

A

The Monte Carlo Analysis method has been shown to be a successful way to account for the uncertainty of input parameters in a crash reconstruction. The Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA) method evaluates the range of input parameters by selecting a random number between the adopted ranges and carrying that throughout the calculation. Evaluating the randomly selected input variables several

thousand times, results in a normal probability distribution of the analysis results. Descriptive statistics is then used to assess the minimum, maximum, and average results; or maybe a confidence level of what is more probability true than not (51%) or perhaps a range which constitutes a 90% confidence level, or any confidence level the investigator wishes to ascribe to the uncertainty analysis.

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