Winter 2023 | San Francisco Market Update

SAN FRANCISCO WINTER 2023 MARKET DATA

A Note From The Cotter Group Dear Clients, Colleagues, and Friends, We’re kicking off the holiday season with excitement for all the fun festivities that await us in the weeks ahead!

You may be asking yourself the million-dollar question, “is now a good time to buy or sell? What’s going on with interest rates? Or will the market be better next year?”

While I don’t have the proverbial crystal ball, I do have a firm grasp on what’s happening in the market in realtime here in San Francisco, and what I can tell you is that fall & winter months typically yield more creative deals, more serious buyers, and just an overall sentiment to finish strong in the fourth quarter! In fact, despite global conflict, declining stock markets, and a 23-year high in interest rates, October achieved the highest monthly absorption level since June 2022, driven by a significant uptick in single-family homes entering contracts.

So if you’re curious about the market, don’t be afraid to reach out to chat! Also, if you’re curious to know how I’ve been feeling about this roller coaster of a year be sure to follow along on social media!

XOXO,

Zoe Candice

Our Thoughts On The Current Market Despite global conflict, declining stock markets, and a 23-year high in interest rates, October achieved the highest monthly absorption level since June 2022, driven by a significant uptick in single-family homes entering contracts. Following the typical San Francisco seasonality, active listings peaked in September and are currently experiencing weekly declines, a trend we anticipate will persist into December, historically marking the lowest inventory levels before the spring selling season.

As November unfolded, declining treasury yields prompted the Federal Reserve to pause its benchmark rate increase. In response, the stock market swiftly surged, and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage experienced a notable quarter-percent drop, marking the most significant one-week decrease since the previous November. Even amid the holiday slowdown, well-prepared sellers and engaged buyers can leverage mid-winter’s diminished competition to facilitate swift sales and favorable negotiations.

ABSORPTION | October achieved the highest monthly absorption level since June 2022, driven by a significant uptick in single-family homes entering contracts.

ACTIVITY LEVELS | Following the typical San Francisco seasonality, active listings peaked in September and are currently experiencing weekly declines, a trend we anticipate will persist into December, historically marking the lowest inventory levels before the spring selling season.

RATES | Declining treasury yields prompted the Federal Reserve to pause its benchmark rate increase. In response, the stock market swiftly surged, and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage experienced a notable quarter-percent drop, marking the most significant one-week decrease since the previous November.

OPPORTUNITY | We have always been busy in the winter months, we are seeing well-prepared sellers and engaged buyers can leverage mid-winter’s diminished competition to facilitate swift sales and favorable negotiations.

BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET | We are seeing incredible deals in the condo space, in some instances condo are trading back to 2014 price levels. Buyers who understand the strength of our local market are seizing these opportunities.

PROFESSIONALS MARKET | This is a professionals market, this is a market to work with strong agents, who have been through many market cycles & who can negotiate the absolute best possible deal for you!

Single Family Market SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE

October 2023 MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$1,650,000

DAYS ON MARKET

14

$ PER SQUARE FOOT

$987

END OF MONTH INVENTORY

316

WENT INTO CONTRACT

200

PROPERTIES SOLD

199

Year-Over-Year Comparison OCT 2023

OCT 2022

% CHANGE

WENT INTO CONTRACT

200

163

+22.7%

PROPERTIES SOLD

199

192

+3.6%

END OF MONTH INVENTORY

316

341

-7.3%

# OF PROPERTIES SOLD OVER LIST

68.3%

64.1%

+6.6%

AVERAGE % OF LIST PRICE RECEIVED

108.1%

107.1%

+0.9%

Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Single-family. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075

Top 5 Single Family Home Sales OCT 2023 / SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE

#1

#2

#3

23 Presidio Terrace

18 Presidio Terrace

2430 Broadway Street

PRESIDIO HEIGHTS / $16,300,000

PRESIDIO HEIGHTS / $14,300,000

PACIFIC HEIGHTS / $13,500.000

#4

#5

3530 Washington Street

2600 Green Street

PRESIDIO HEIGHTS / $11,250,000

COW HOLLOW / $8,810,000

Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Single-family. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075

Median Single Family Home Values OCTOBER 2023 / SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE

AVG % OF LIST NEIGHBORHOOD

AVG SOLD PRICE

$ / SQ. FT.

PRICE RECV’D

HOMES SOLD

Pacific/Presidio Heights

$6,105,000

$1,331

95.7%

16*

Marina/Cow Hollow

$4,500,000

$1,453

97.5%

19*

Cole Valley/Haight

$4,300,464

$1,305

103.6%

3*

Russian Hill

$4,012,500

$611

104.4%

2*

Lower Pacific/Laurel Heights

$3,200,000

$1,150

100.9%

6*

Alamo Square/NoPa

$2,950,000

$790

124.6%

3*

Castro/Duboce Triangle

$2,650,000

$1,205

105.0%

11*

Ingleside Terrace/Lakeside

$2,500,000

$818

115.4%

5*

Noe Valley

$2,385,000

$1,115

104.6%

28*

Mission

$2,050,000

$999

94.1%

6*

Potrero Hill

$1,974,515

$484

105.5%

8*

Hayes Valley

$1,950,000

$1,058

115.7%

6*

Richmond/Lake Street

$1,945,000

$1,093

106.9%

36*

Buena Vista/Corona Heights

$1,800,000

$1,227

103.1%

9*

Bernal Heights/Glen Park

$1,650,000

$1,115

105.8%

59

Sunset

$1,550,000

$991

117.6%

49*

Diamond Heights

$1,400,000

$948

103.3%

11*

Westwood Park/Sunnyside

$1,348,000

$848

109.2%

16*

Excelsior/Portola

$1,130,000

$858

108.6%

51

Bayview/Hunters Point

$972,750

$629

105.2%

14*

*Denotes small sample size - use caution when interpreting statistics. Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Single-family. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075

Condominium Market SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE

October 2023 MEDIAN SALES PRICE DAYS ON MARKET $ PER SQUARE FOOT

$1,172,500 26 $1,008

END OF MONTH INVENTORY

791

WENT INTO CONTRACT

200

PROPERTIES SOLD

186

Year-Over-Year Comparison OCT 2023

OCT 2022

% CHANGE

WENT INTO CONTRACT

200

208

-3.8%

PROPERTIES SOLD

186

224

-17.0%

END OF MONTH INVENTORY

791

968

-18.3%

# OF PROPERTIES SOLD OVER LIST

34.9%

37.5%

-6.9%

AVERAGE % OF LIST PRICE RECEIVED

99.7%

100.4%

-0.7%

Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Condos/TIC/Co-Ops. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075

Top 5 Condominium Home Sales OCTOBER 2023 / SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE

#1

#2

#3

10 Miller Place #2300

489 Elizabeth Street

75 Folsom Street #1502

NOB HILL / $4,750,000

NOE VALLEY / $3,850,000

SOUTH BEACH / $3,100,000

#4

#5

1750 Taylor Street #603

169 Parnassus Avenue

RUSSIAN HILL / $3,100,000

COLE VALLEY / $2,545,000

Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Condos/TIC/Co-Ops. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075

Median Condominium Home Values OCTOBER 2023 / SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE AVG % OF LIST NEIGHBORHOOD

AVG SOLD PRICE

$ / SQ. FT.

PRICE RECV’D

HOMES SOLD

Marina/Cow Hollow

$2,000,000

$1,157

100.2%

19*

Buena Vista/Corona Heights

$1,950,000

$995

100.3%

10*

Pacific/Presidio Heights

$1,650,000

$1,117

98.0%

33*

Cole Valley/Haight

$1,488,750

$1,046

102.6%

6*

Russian Hill

$1,462,500

$1,130

98.0%

22*

Richmond/Lake St

$1,385,000

$971

101.7%

19*

Castro/Duboce Triangle

$1,375,000

$1,089

102.3%

21*

Hayes Valley

$1,325,000

$994

99.3%

12*

Lower Pacific/Laurel Heights

$1,300,000

$1,054

99.8%

11*

Noe Valley

$1,275,000

$1,053

101.2%

29*

South Beach/Yerba Buena

$1,153,000

$1,035

96.1%

59

Alamo Square/NOPA

$1,150,000

$1,056

103.6%

13*

Mission

$1,140,000

$928

100.7%

20*

North Beach/Fisherman’s Wharf

$1,135,000

$949

99.0%

9*

Telegraph Hill

$1,051,501

$832

100.0%

9*

Nob Hill*

$1,049,000

$1,011

98.2%

29*

Sunset

$1,033,125

$792

101.0%

4*

Mission Dolores

$990,000

$972

105.0%

4*

Dogpatch

$920,750

$1,196

99.6%

10*

Mission Bay

$900,000

$1,001

98.0%

13*

Potrero Hill

$850,000

$1,173

101.0%

14*

Bernal Heights/Glen Park

$830,000

$906

100.7%

10*

Diamond Heights

$759,500

$796

98.6%

8*

SOMA

$752,000

$781

98.7%

28*

Bayview/Hunters Point

$729,000

$666

99.3%

9*

Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Condos/TIC/Co-Ops. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075

The Cotter Group ACTIVE / PENDING / SOLD

FOR SALE

1400 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE #101, #202, #303 POTRERO HILL / $715,000 - $975,000 • • • • • • •

A new collection of condominiums, built in 2017, and located in the highly desirable Potrero Hill neighborhood!

1-2 Bedroom units available Boutique, elevator building Radiant heat flooring Convenient parking & secure bicycle storage Secure video monitoring entry intercom Common area courtyard with garden furniture

FOR SALE

627 46TH AVENUE OUTER RICHMOND / $1,525,000 • • • • • • •

2 Bedroom/1 Bath single family home Views of the Pacific Ocean & Twin Peaks Beautifully landscaped backyard with a new stone laid patio & drip irrigation Modern living with historic details Generously sized garage with soaring ceiling height & expansion potential Finished bonus room at back of garage Located on a quiet street in the highly desirable Outer Richmond/Sutro Heights neighborhood

FOR SALE

129-131 SATURN STREET CORONA HEIGHTS / $2,598,000 • • • • • • • • •

Fantastic property offered as a duplex & individual TICs! 129 Saturn Street (Lower): 3 bed/ 2 bath 131 Saturn Street (Upper) : 3 bed/ 2 bath 3,108 sq.ft.per tax records Spectacular views from East to West Independent garages for each unit Shared laundry + bonus space & bathroom Undeveloped lower level/basement with expansive development potential Shared tranquil garden

FOR SALE

605 WALLER STREET DUBOCE PARK / $2,650,000 • • • • • • •

Top floor, house-like condominium!

4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms 2,568 sq ft. per graphic artist Triple parlor living/dining & modern chef’s kitchen with marble countertops Exquisite period details mixed with modern luxury Hardwood floors throughout Newly added roof deck with city views

RECENLTY SOLD 635 42ND AVENUE Buyer Represented Sold $3,100,000

219 BRANNAN STREET #18D Buyer & Seller Represented Sold $2,875,000

251 ANDOVER STREET Seller Represented Sold $2,400,000

605 DUNCAN STREET Seller Represented Sold $1,910,000

2200 PACIFIC AVENUE #9A Buyer & Seller Represented Sold $1,800,000

Contact COLLEEN COTTER 415.706.1781 colleen@colleencottersf.com BRE Lic. #01703078 ZOE FRANKEL 415.235.9422 zoefrankel@vanguardsf.com DRE Lic. #02134477 CANDICE MACARIO CAMERON 415.310.3496 candice@vanguardsf.com DRE Lic. #01952850

colleencottersf.com 1801 Filmore Street | San Francisco, CA 94115