SAN FRANCISCO WINTER 2023 MARKET DATA
A Note From The Cotter Group Dear Clients, Colleagues, and Friends, We’re kicking off the holiday season with excitement for all the fun festivities that await us in the weeks ahead! You may be asking yourself the million-dollar question, “is now a good time to buy or sell? What’s going on with interest rates? Or will the market be better next year?” While I don’t have the proverbial crystal ball, I do have a firm grasp on what’s happening in the market in realtime here in San Francisco, and what I can tell you is that fall & winter months typically yield more creative deals, more serious buyers, and just an overall sentiment to finish strong in the fourth quarter! In fact, despite global conflict, declining stock markets, and a 23-year high in interest rates, October achieved the highest monthly absorption level since June 2022, driven by a significant uptick in single-family homes entering contracts. So if you’re curious about the market, don’t be afraid to reach out to chat! Also, if you’re curious to know how I’ve been feeling about this roller coaster of a year be sure to follow along on social media! XOXO,
Zoe Candice
Our Thoughts On The Current Market Despite global conflict, declining stock markets, and a 23-year high in interest rates, October achieved the highest monthly absorption level since June 2022, driven by a significant uptick in single-family homes entering contracts. Following the typical San Francisco seasonality, active listings peaked in September and are currently experiencing weekly declines, a trend we anticipate will persist into December, historically marking the lowest inventory levels before the spring selling season. As November unfolded, declining treasury yields prompted the Federal Reserve to pause its benchmark rate increase. In response, the stock market swiftly surged, and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage experienced a notable quarter-percent drop, marking the most significant one-week decrease since the previous November. Even amid the holiday slowdown, well-prepared sellers and engaged buyers can leverage mid-winter’s diminished competition to facilitate swift sales and favorable negotiations. ABSORPTION | October achieved the highest monthly absorption level since June 2022, driven by a significant uptick in single-family homes entering contracts. ACTIVITY LEVELS | Following the typical San Francisco seasonality, active listings peaked in September and are currently experiencing weekly declines, a trend we anticipate will persist into December, historically marking the lowest inventory levels before the spring selling season. RATES | Declining treasury yields prompted the Federal Reserve to pause its benchmark rate increase. In response, the stock market swiftly surged, and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage experienced a notable quarter-percent drop, marking the most significant one-week decrease since the previous November. OPPORTUNITY | We have always been busy in the winter months, we are seeing well-prepared sellers and engaged buyers can leverage mid-winter’s diminished competition to facilitate swift sales and favorable negotiations. BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET | We are seeing incredible deals in the condo space, in some instances condo are trading back to 2014 price levels. Buyers who understand the strength of our local market are seizing these opportunities. PROFESSIONALS MARKET | This is a professionals market, this is a market to work with strong agents, who have been through many market cycles & who can negotiate the absolute best possible deal for you!
Single Family Market SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE
October 2023 MEDIAN SALES PRICE
$1,650,000
DAYS ON MARKET
14
$ PER SQUARE FOOT
$987
END OF MONTH INVENTORY
316
WENT INTO CONTRACT
200
PROPERTIES SOLD
199
Year-Over-Year Comparison OCT 2023
OCT 2022
% CHANGE
WENT INTO CONTRACT
200
163
+22.7%
PROPERTIES SOLD
199
192
+3.6%
END OF MONTH INVENTORY
316
341
-7.3%
# OF PROPERTIES SOLD OVER LIST
68.3%
64.1%
+6.6%
AVERAGE % OF LIST PRICE RECEIVED
108.1%
107.1%
+0.9%
Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Single-family. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
Top 5 Single Family Home Sales OCT 2023 / SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE
#1
#2
#3
23 Presidio Terrace
18 Presidio Terrace
2430 Broadway Street
PRESIDIO HEIGHTS / $16,300,000
PRESIDIO HEIGHTS / $14,300,000
PACIFIC HEIGHTS / $13,500.000
#4
#5
3530 Washington Street
2600 Green Street
PRESIDIO HEIGHTS / $11,250,000
COW HOLLOW / $8,810,000
Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Single-family. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
Median Single Family Home Values OCTOBER 2023 / SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE
AVG % OF LIST NEIGHBORHOOD
AVG SOLD PRICE
$ / SQ. FT.
PRICE RECV’D
HOMES SOLD
Pacific/Presidio Heights
$6,105,000
$1,331
95.7%
16*
Marina/Cow Hollow
$4,500,000
$1,453
97.5%
19*
Cole Valley/Haight
$4,300,464
$1,305
103.6%
3*
Russian Hill
$4,012,500
$611
104.4%
2*
Lower Pacific/Laurel Heights
$3,200,000
$1,150
100.9%
6*
Alamo Square/NoPa
$2,950,000
$790
124.6%
3*
Castro/Duboce Triangle
$2,650,000
$1,205
105.0%
11*
Ingleside Terrace/Lakeside
$2,500,000
$818
115.4%
5*
Noe Valley
$2,385,000
$1,115
104.6%
28*
Mission
$2,050,000
$999
94.1%
6*
Potrero Hill
$1,974,515
$484
105.5%
8*
Hayes Valley
$1,950,000
$1,058
115.7%
6*
Richmond/Lake Street
$1,945,000
$1,093
106.9%
36*
Buena Vista/Corona Heights
$1,800,000
$1,227
103.1%
9*
Bernal Heights/Glen Park
$1,650,000
$1,115
105.8%
59
Sunset
$1,550,000
$991
117.6%
49*
Diamond Heights
$1,400,000
$948
103.3%
11*
Westwood Park/Sunnyside
$1,348,000
$848
109.2%
16*
Excelsior/Portola
$1,130,000
$858
108.6%
51
Bayview/Hunters Point
$972,750
$629
105.2%
14*
*Denotes small sample size - use caution when interpreting statistics. Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Single-family. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
Condominium Market SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE
October 2023 MEDIAN SALES PRICE DAYS ON MARKET $ PER SQUARE FOOT
$1,172,500 26 $1,008
END OF MONTH INVENTORY
791
WENT INTO CONTRACT
200
PROPERTIES SOLD
186
Year-Over-Year Comparison OCT 2023
OCT 2022
% CHANGE
WENT INTO CONTRACT
200
208
-3.8%
PROPERTIES SOLD
186
224
-17.0%
END OF MONTH INVENTORY
791
968
-18.3%
# OF PROPERTIES SOLD OVER LIST
34.9%
37.5%
-6.9%
AVERAGE % OF LIST PRICE RECEIVED
99.7%
100.4%
-0.7%
Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Condos/TIC/Co-Ops. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
Top 5 Condominium Home Sales OCTOBER 2023 / SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE
#1
#2
#3
10 Miller Place #2300
489 Elizabeth Street
75 Folsom Street #1502
NOB HILL / $4,750,000
NOE VALLEY / $3,850,000
SOUTH BEACH / $3,100,000
#4
#5
1750 Taylor Street #603
169 Parnassus Avenue
RUSSIAN HILL / $3,100,000
COLE VALLEY / $2,545,000
Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Condos/TIC/Co-Ops. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
Median Condominium Home Values OCTOBER 2023 / SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE AVG % OF LIST NEIGHBORHOOD
AVG SOLD PRICE
$ / SQ. FT.
PRICE RECV’D
HOMES SOLD
Marina/Cow Hollow
$2,000,000
$1,157
100.2%
19*
Buena Vista/Corona Heights
$1,950,000
$995
100.3%
10*
Pacific/Presidio Heights
$1,650,000
$1,117
98.0%
33*
Cole Valley/Haight
$1,488,750
$1,046
102.6%
6*
Russian Hill
$1,462,500
$1,130
98.0%
22*
Richmond/Lake St
$1,385,000
$971
101.7%
19*
Castro/Duboce Triangle
$1,375,000
$1,089
102.3%
21*
Hayes Valley
$1,325,000
$994
99.3%
12*
Lower Pacific/Laurel Heights
$1,300,000
$1,054
99.8%
11*
Noe Valley
$1,275,000
$1,053
101.2%
29*
South Beach/Yerba Buena
$1,153,000
$1,035
96.1%
59
Alamo Square/NOPA
$1,150,000
$1,056
103.6%
13*
Mission
$1,140,000
$928
100.7%
20*
North Beach/Fisherman’s Wharf
$1,135,000
$949
99.0%
9*
Telegraph Hill
$1,051,501
$832
100.0%
9*
Nob Hill*
$1,049,000
$1,011
98.2%
29*
Sunset
$1,033,125
$792
101.0%
4*
Mission Dolores
$990,000
$972
105.0%
4*
Dogpatch
$920,750
$1,196
99.6%
10*
Mission Bay
$900,000
$1,001
98.0%
13*
Potrero Hill
$850,000
$1,173
101.0%
14*
Bernal Heights/Glen Park
$830,000
$906
100.7%
10*
Diamond Heights
$759,500
$796
98.6%
8*
SOMA
$752,000
$781
98.7%
28*
Bayview/Hunters Point
$729,000
$666
99.3%
9*
Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Condos/TIC/Co-Ops. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
The Cotter Group ACTIVE / PENDING / SOLD
FOR SALE
1400 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE #101, #202, #303 POTRERO HILL / $715,000 - $975,000 • • • • • • •
A new collection of condominiums, built in 2017, and located in the highly desirable Potrero Hill neighborhood! 1-2 Bedroom units available Boutique, elevator building Radiant heat flooring Convenient parking & secure bicycle storage Secure video monitoring entry intercom Common area courtyard with garden furniture
FOR SALE
627 46TH AVENUE OUTER RICHMOND / $1,525,000 • • • • • • •
2 Bedroom/1 Bath single family home Views of the Pacific Ocean & Twin Peaks Beautifully landscaped backyard with a new stone laid patio & drip irrigation Modern living with historic details Generously sized garage with soaring ceiling height & expansion potential Finished bonus room at back of garage Located on a quiet street in the highly desirable Outer Richmond/Sutro Heights neighborhood
FOR SALE
129-131 SATURN STREET CORONA HEIGHTS / $2,598,000 • • • • • • • • •
Fantastic property offered as a duplex & individual TICs! 129 Saturn Street (Lower): 3 bed/ 2 bath 131 Saturn Street (Upper) : 3 bed/ 2 bath 3,108 sq.ft.per tax records Spectacular views from East to West Independent garages for each unit Shared laundry + bonus space & bathroom Undeveloped lower level/basement with expansive development potential Shared tranquil garden
FOR SALE
605 WALLER STREET DUBOCE PARK / $2,650,000 • • • • • • •
Top floor, house-like condominium! 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms 2,568 sq ft. per graphic artist Triple parlor living/dining & modern chef’s kitchen with marble countertops Exquisite period details mixed with modern luxury Hardwood floors throughout Newly added roof deck with city views
RECENLTY SOLD 635 42ND AVENUE Buyer Represented Sold $3,100,000
219 BRANNAN STREET #18D Buyer & Seller Represented Sold $2,875,000
251 ANDOVER STREET Seller Represented Sold $2,400,000
605 DUNCAN STREET Seller Represented Sold $1,910,000
2200 PACIFIC AVENUE #9A Buyer & Seller Represented Sold $1,800,000
Contact COLLEEN COTTER 415.706.1781 colleen@colleencottersf.com BRE Lic. #01703078 ZOE FRANKEL 415.235.9422 zoefrankel@vanguardsf.com DRE Lic. #02134477 CANDICE MACARIO CAMERON 415.310.3496 candice@vanguardsf.com DRE Lic. #01952850
colleencottersf.com 1801 Filmore Street | San Francisco, CA 94115