Property prices bulletin

The recently released figures from the States of Guernsey show that property prices in the island have yet again seen a significant increase. Demand is still outstripping supply in the sales and rental market, but with interest rates rising and the impact of global events somewhat unknown, there is an element of uncertainty for the sector.

Guernsey’s most recent quarterly residential property prices bulletin crunches the numbers for house sales and rentals from January to March 2022.

It shows that the average local house price has risen to a record high of £575,155. This is an increase of 4% on the previous quarter and 12.4% compared with the same period in 2021.

There were 199 local market transactions in the period, which is the highest recorded first quarter number since 2007. There were 36 fewer transactions than in the previous quarter, and 32 more than the same quarter of 2021.

In the open market, there was a total of 26 transactions, eight more than in the first quarter of 2021. The average price for the period was £1,216,313 while the four-quarter average, which reduces the effect of seasonal fluctuations, increased by 7.4% over the past year to come in at £1,343,672.

The statistics also show that the average time between a local market property becoming available for purchase and its subsequent sale has been decreasing since the first quarter of 2018. At the same time, the difference in the advertised price of properties and their final sale price has also been decreasing; however, it was larger in the first quarter of 2022 than the previous two quarters.

Keith Enevoldsen is the head of residential sales at Savills Guernsey. He believes the market is still looking healthy: “For those looking to sell, it remains a good time to bring your home to the market. The £1m-plus market is buoyant and sensibly priced homes in good locations are attracting plenty of interest. The higher costs of building materials have also meant that new builds and properties not requiring work are attracting something of a premium. Many instructions are selling before they appear on the market. “Looking ahead, it would be amiss to ignore the threat of economic pressures. However, to date, as can be seen by the number of transactions reported in the States of Guernsey statistics, the open market has been largely insulated against pressures that include the higher cost of debt, rising inflation, increased energy costs and the geopolitical uncertainty that has unravelled globally. As a result, activity has remained ahead of normal levels throughout 2022 so far. However, while we’re not expecting prices to fall, we do expect levels of growth to flatten out given the economic challenges and the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.”

Local market director at Swoffers, Andre Austin, agrees that there are factors that could affect the market going forward: “We started the year facing the same challenges as last year, with a shortage of stock across all areas of the market. Although we saw a rise in interest rates, availability of credit is still very good and there are still plenty of buyers around. When you combine those factors, it is no wonder the market was so buoyant in the first quarter. With a recent rise in interest rates it will be interesting to see if there is any impact for the remainder of the year.”

average local market property price 199

local market transactions £1,661

average monthly local market rental price £1,216,313

average open market property price 26

open market transactions

John Bampkin, chair of the Guernsey Construction Forum, says while some of the choices the island needs to make are uncomfortable, they are necessary for the island’s future.

Forced choices are very rarely good ones but the consequence of not making a choice is usually even worse than making a difficult one.

We are now facing our worst housing crisis for decades because of a lack of decision making, conviction and investment through successive governments. A great example of this is the latest iteration of the Leale’s Yard development.

Derelict land and unsightly buildings are only now being seriously considered as a development opportunity that will benefit the island and St Sampson’s in so many ways. More residents to support the local economy, more open space, more locations for local entrepreneurial businesses and a focal point for the neglected Bridge area.

So why hasn’t this happened before? It’s because we have lived in a period where it’s been so much easier not to do something than to do it. That has been caused by a myriad of forces such as a lack of confidence in the local economy to make the project financially viable in the first place. Being able to submit a plan that can be discussed, tweaked and adapted with input from all stakeholders instead of being thrown out at the first sign of its appearance by the all too powerful ‘nay-sayers’.

Now we are starting to realise that we have no choice in the fact that we need more housing on our island and we need it now. Our population demographics are starting to actively work against us and it’s only going to get worse. We cannot survive in the hope that we will have a strong finance sector forever. We must invest in Guernsey to keep moving forward and building our strength back after the effects of Covid and Brexit. The jurisdictions that are adventurous, forward looking and diversifying their income streams to make themselves stand out at the beauty parades are the ones that will prosper for the next 30 years. Guernsey has a fantastic chance to be one of those! But we have some difficult choices. Wherever we build and develop on our small landscape will have an effect on somebody. But with innovative thinking, creativity and by really embracing technology in the way we build and the materials we use we can turn the numerous ‘eye-sores’ we have littered across our islands into environmentally sustainable habitats in which the population can live, work, learn and play. We will never be able to satisfy everyone’s concerns so this will be uncomfortable for some but it is necessary to secure the future of the Bailiwick.

The latest iteration of the States workplan puts housing at the top of the priority list and then talks about “skills and human capital investment” and also the “island’s future population”. This is very encouraging as everything else we do and consider must hang off those three topics. The thought of more housing and people on the island is uncomfortable but we can do this in a way that can actually reduce the impact on our traffic congestion and open environments. We are truly blessed on this island with incredible people who are well resourced, well financed and willing to help. We have amazing collaboration across our industries and commerce, and we have a wealth of experience and knowledge that we can tap into to help find the answers to these stark and present challenges.

We must not hide from the difficult choices and we must invest in our islands expediently to ensure that we have the right balance of people to provide our care and social services, our education services as well as our local finance and other industries well into the 21st century to fully realise the potential the Bailiwick truly has right at its fingertips.

Let’s make those difficult choices and move forward together.

Caroline Gumble, chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Building (CIOB), looks at the importance of attracting young people to the industry, and supporting them in their careers.

Of the many challenges we face as an industry, the need to attract new recruits and keep talent in the sector is still one we have yet to crack. In short, we still have a skills shortage.

CIOB has for many years run a programme to support those in the early stages of their career. That programme has been through a transformation in the last few months - and we now have plans to expand it, reaching out to more people to make the case for a career in construction.

Some of you will know that we used to run the Novus network for individuals in the early stages of their career. Last year saw us take the months of work carried out under the banner of the Inspiring Tomorrow’s Leaders Project and develop it into a strategy, focussing on what we can do to support new entrants into our industry.

The development of our Tomorrows’ Leaders community has included bringing on board more early career members as champions to help promote the sector. We have also brought those champions closer to the heart of CIOB’s decision making structures and put people who will be shaping the industry for years to come in a position where they will be influencing the Institute for years to come.

It is important in both engaging younger members and those new in the industry - and in strengthening the diversity of voices we have among our membership.

It now also helps provide a platform for reaching out to even younger audiences who may be at the point of considering career options. One element of that work is taking place in the Channel Islands. Some of my team have visited schools and colleges in Jersey to see how Design Engineer Construct (DEC!) is putting construction and the built environment on the school curriculum. They’ve also been spending time with Alison Watson MBE of Class Of Your Own and with Skills Jersey talking about ‘what next for DEC!’s continued growth in Jersey?’

I’ve also been enjoying hearing more talk of a construction GCSE or A-level – or both? Some of our Policy work in Ireland has been focussing on a proposal to “ringfence funding for the development of an A-level in construction” specifically to help support the pipeline of talent coming into the sector.

So there is work underway to tackle this issue, which needs more attention if we are serious about securing the future of the industry. It is also one of my personal priorities – Tomorrow’s Leaders is a significant step in helping to shape a positive and progressive future for the Institute and the industry.

We are still building our cohort of Tomorrow’s Leaders so let us know if you’d like to step forward and join this community. If you’d like to know a little more about who’s already involved and what resources we’re starting to create for the TL community, have a look at our YouTube playlist (available to anyone) – just visit YouTube and search for “CIOB Tomorrow’s Leaders”.

As ever, if you would like to find out more about events being organised by our South UK Hub, do feel free to join our LinkedIn group “CIOB in South UK” or check out the events section of the CIOB website.

Scott Crittell, a Chartered Fellow of the Association for Project Management, explains the advantages of having project professionals represented at the top level.

The membership of a business’s board has developed over time and may now include marketing or HR professionals. But rarely do we see a project professional as part of that makeup. We are, however, starting to see more strategic projects emerge from boardrooms. And we are starting to see more accountability for members of the board in relation to the performance of these projects. Project failure may even lead to resignations from a board.

Project failure may arise from a lack of familiarity with the skills needed to deliver projects at a professional level in the boardroom. Also at play may be a belief that projects can be delivered by anyone, even as an extra add-on to their full-time role. This is often a cause of project failure, the results of which include the elongation of project timelines with a cost implication or a reduction in project scope.

In such project failure scenarios, a sound review of the legal structure of any third-party involvements prior to sign off is often invaluable, as any project professional will testify. But that is the topic of another article. Here, I want to suggest that the creation of a board-level chief project and change role represents one positive measure which would help prevent project failure. Indeed, now is the time to recognise that individuals in project roles have an identity of their own and merit their own department.

This view may be met with scepticism. After all, in the modern workplace, staff already undertake projects without being recognised as project managers. But there is value in setting project managers apart, and in the remainder of this article I want to underscore two reasons why.

First, by setting project managers apart, institutions demonstrate greater awareness of the high stakes which are often involved in project management work, and thereby mitigate the chances of failure. Take the example of a museum that has an exhibition. The exhibition will need a thorough plan for acquiring exhibits from other institutions, insuring them for transit, taking care that they are stored and exhibited under correct conditions, and arranging appropriate security for open and closed hours. There is a lot here that could go wrong. The decision to employ designated project management staff to undertake these tasks, however, would clarify structures of accountability, thereby improving the chances of success.

In such a scenario, it would also be crucial to hire project management staff who were appropriately skilled. This leads to my second reason for setting project managers apart: the skill sets which are required to manage projects effectively should not be taken for granted. Thanks to the Association for Project Management (APM), it is easier than ever before to assess an individual’s competency at project management. The APM, which holds a Royal Charter for project management professionals, offers a suite of qualifications and the only route to project chartered status. The APM provides a gold standard for project professionals.

We know projects are often costly, are vital to the business goals of an organisation, and can have a direct impact on directors. Therefore the time to incorporate project professionals in the boardroom is now. In ensuring that project roles are given equal status with roles such as marketing, more individuals will be encouraged into the profession with the aspiration to become project leaders, and with a pathway which should lead to boardroom level. Furthermore, there are clearly competitive advantages for businesses which apply foresight now and recognise project management as a discrete professional occupation. Those businesses will be able to move forward with greater confidence in delivering their projects and growth.

Andrew Mills, chair of the Guernsey Occupational Safety and Health Association, advises those in the industry to take all necessary precautions.

With summer approaching , Covid not as impactful as it was (but still a threat we should not ignore) and our thoughts focused again on getting things done, I hope you won’t mind if, in this edition, we focus on the dangers of working at height – that is, at a level where serious injury or death can result from a fall or someone can be hurt by dropping something onto them. So not very high at all!

If you work above ground level, if you use scaffolding or a ladder or some other aid which helps you to work above the ground, are you taking the risks you and your colleagues and the public face seriously?

Nice weather and the prospects of completing work quickly can bring about a complacent attitude to the presence and management of risks.

There are too many near misses and close calls in Guernsey which can result in catastrophe – long-term injuries and disabilities and sometimes death.

There is just no need for serious workplace accidents in Guernsey.

• Staff are properly trained and informed so that they know how to do things safely.

• Staff have adequate protective equipment and adequate tools and other items to get the job done efficiently, safely and well.

• There is adequate supervision on site to ensure that things are done well and corrected if they are not and an experienced, well-informed person is available if something goes wrong. • You understand the sanctions in place for those who break rules – they encourage discipline and doing things the right way and penalise those who flout the rules (and cause danger to themselves and others).

• You are prepared if things go wrong – from first aid provision to having a site evacuation plan such as getting an injured person medical treatment and evacuation, if needed.

• Your business continuity and disaster recovery plans are up to date.

There is a range of legal and practical guidance in Guernsey which should be followed to make a workplace safe. Remember, workplace safety is a requirement of Guernsey law.

Your first port of call for guidance should be our local HSE Team (gov.gg/hse). Speak to them if you are unsure, check the guidance in their website – see their page entitled: Work at Height including Scaffolding (HSE guidance).

And if you remain unsure, contact one of the health and safety consultants listed in our website www.gosha.org.gg/guernsey-trainingproviders-and-consultants.

Other specific guidance you must follow is the Guernsey Construction Approved Code of Practice and, where relevant, the UK’s CDM regulations (hse.gov.uk).

Care for yourself and your staff and don’t forget your neighbours – in fact, anyone who could be affected by your work should be considered and protected.

Take health and safety in the workplace seriously, get the job done well and safely and add to your good reputation.

Chartered architect Oliver Brock of the Guernsey Society of Architects considers the implications of the upcoming States debate on key worker accommodation.

Trusting processes can be difficult. Most businesses have that moment when a process that has been set up to deliver an outcome is tested. It’s sometimes a make or break moment, and it can be hard to watch that process follow through. At the critical moment, the worst managers and owners step in. They disrupt the process they’ve set up by tinkering, and often, in accordance with their worst fears, the process fails. Their concerns are validated, and they learn that their interference is justified. The problem is that they’ve alienated every person involved with the potential success of the process, and they’ve limited the scale of that success by their interference.

What does this have to do with architecture, or construction? At publication, we face a situation where the States has identified a need for the provision of key worker accommodation, and the committee responsible for delivering on that has identified a route for that provision.

The States property portfolio is a complex network, with inter-connectivity across the estate. To unlock a piece of real estate, a ‘brownfield site’, one must find places for all the current users, by moving departments and finding new homes for them. That bigger rationalisation project is ongoing, and has so far netted a variety of arguably positive outcomes.

We are in a situation where the committee responsible for that puzzle, has concluded that there are no appropriate brownfield sites available that would accommodate the number of keyworkers required to meet demand. No-one, I believe, is challenging the statement of demand.

The next step would normally be for the committee to investigate the planning constraints around what land could be used. The Planning Authority would say ‘no’ to the use of green fields for development, but in the Island Development Plan (IDP), there is facility under Policy S5 for the strategic need of a particular scheme to override the plan policies when some previously unforeseen need arises which is not accounted for in the plan.

The process for handling these occurrences is clear. The applicant must demonstrate the strategic need, and that no other (more suitable) land is available; the whole development is made subject to a Local Planning Brief.

In July, we will watch on as the States debates whether key-worker housing should be allowed to happen on a field in St Andrew’s, despite the presence of adequate checks and balances in the Planning system.

The manager is involving himself in the process that he set up. One may question why politicians don’t trust the process they put in place? Is it a case that they don’t know the checks and balances exist, or is it more serious; that they don’t trust the civil servants and fellow politicians in the Development and Planning Authority to protect the island’s natural landscape? Perhaps they are ‘standing up’ in a situation they believe is their only opportunity to be heard - a sad indictment of the planning process if our (some very senior) politicians feel that way about public representation in the planning system.

In any of these scenarios, the situation is dire for our Development and Planning Authority, because the politicians that govern them and set the policies they work to are publicly declaring, very loudly, that they either don’t trust them to do their job, or they don’t trust the policies they are working to.

At a time when the States is under pressure to improve efficiency and effectiveness, putting faith in the established process and trusting those who are part of it would be a much more effective and constructive way of dealing with the situation, in my view.

With the importance of landscaping becoming ever more widely recognised, we take a closer look at the industry. From landscaping planning requirements to the importance of native planting, step outside this summer with advice from our industry experts.