Cole O'Brien - Independent Final Project - Preliminary Research and Abstract - ASU Design School

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

ARIZONA TRAIL

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

TABLE OF CONTENTS PROJECT ABSTRACT

5

ARIZONA TRAIL HISTORY

6-7

GEOGRAPHIC DIVISIONS

8-9

MAPPING + RESEARCH PROCESS SOUTHERN PASSAGES

10-11 12

ECOREGIONS 13-16 VEGETATION 17 18-23 MAPPING DATA

CENTRAL PASSAGES

24

NORTHERN PASSAGES

38

ECOREGIONS 25-29 VEGETATION 30 32-37 MAPPING DATA

ECOREGIONS 39-44 VEGETATION 45 46-51 MAPPING DATA

GATEWAY COMMUNITIES BIBLIOGRAPHY

52-53 54

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ASU Design School Independent Final Project Student - Cole O’Brien Faculty Advisor - Juan Felipe Mesa Rico

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

PROJECT ABSTRACT The 800-mile-long Arizona National Scenic Trail traverses the entire length of the state. It is used by a variety of user groups from ‘thru-hikers’ and day-bikers to llama herders. The diverse ecosystems of the trail are facing twin challenges: the rise of climate change resulting in impacts such as hotter weather and an extended fire season, and a well-documented rise in trail users exacerbating the potential for impacts of overuse on delicate ecosystems. Given time, these impacts have the potential to threaten the trail’s very existence. In, this project explores the potential for modular structures, located in and adapted to environments identified as most at risk, to mitigate and combat these consequences. This proposal suggests that architecture, typically the antithesis of uninterrupted nature, might instead be used to preserve and protect, as well as serving its most essential purpose – shelter.

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

Student - Cole O’Brien Faculty Advisor - Juan Felipe Mesa Rico

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

ARIZONA TRAIL HISTORY The Arizona Trail was the brainchild of Dale Shewalter in the 1970’s. A Flagstaff schoolteacher, Shewalter walked from Nogales, Arizona to the Utah state line in order to prove the feasibility of a south-to-north national scenic trail spanning the length of the state. Following his completion, Shewalter became the trail’s sole and biggest advocate – giving presentations across the state detailing his vision of a trail interconnecting various state gateway communities, wilderness areas, topography, forests, ecosystems and more. The idea for the trail was quickly embraced by stakeholders across the state – especially those within the Arizona State Parks system, the Kaibab, Coronado, Coconino and Tonto National Forests, the Bureau of Land Management and the National Parks Service.

The following years throughout the 80’s and early 90’s were spent doing inventory work determining how existing trails could be interconnected in a manner to be designated as part of the Arizona Trail and how to best highlight Arizona’s diverse landscapes. This largely existed as individual efforts across various federal agencies as they began work towards completing their sections of the Arizona Trail.

In 1990, the need for a formal partnership across these various agencies became apparent to best coordinate efforts and communication. Likewise, a non-profit organization was necessary. And thus, in 1994, the Arizona Trail Association was officially incorporated as a 501(c)(3) and became a statewide advocate for the trail – bringing together the passions of day hikers, backpackers, equestrians, mountain bicyclists, runners, trail builders, nature enthusiasts, cross-country skiers, and llama packers.

This organization has been critical in the allocating resources used for the collective benefit of trail users and providing trail maintenance, rerouting, advocacy, map creation, gps tracking, water source identification and tracking, supplies maintenance and raising money and awareness for the trail itself. Perhaps most importantly, the community has grown in the form of a passionate group of trail angels who aid the trail users themselves – helping to make accomplishments such as a ‘Fastest Known Time’ or ‘FKT’ thru-hike possible.

In the last two decades, significant milestones for the Arizona Trail have been reached – helping to cement its permanence for years to come. These include achieving official National Scenic Trail status, building the trail on State Trust Lands, reestablishing areas of the trail decimated by wildfires, weaving the trail through the topography of the Gila River.

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However, the trail has also continues to see threats that have threaten its existence.

These include the construction of a southern border wall cutting off the original southern terminus, increasingly long-lasting wildfire seasons devastating huge amounts of land, and climate change threatening the availability of crucial resources such as water and shade, and the increase of trail use leading to potential ecological damage to the trail itself.

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

GEOGRAPHIC DIVISIONS NORTHERN PASSAGES Passages 27-43 run from Blue Ridge all the way to the Arizona / Utah border. The section is characterized largely by its time in the Coconino National Forest, the San Francisco Peaks and the Grand Canyon. The largest city within this area is Flagstaff, Arizona.

CENTRAL PASSAGES Passages 14-26 begin in the Black Hills and terminate near the Mogollon Rim. The largest section of this area is the Superstition Wilderness. The largest city in this section is the Phoenix metropolitan area.

SOUTHERN PASSAGES Passages 0-13 run from the Mexican border to the town of Oracle, just north of Tuscon. These passages start at the border terminus and continue primarily through the Sonoran Basin and Range, also known as the ‘Sky Islands.’ The largest city in the southern section is Tuscon.

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COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

MAPPING PROCESS

Data collection for the Arizona Trail required using a variety of different sources.

This was especially critical when attempting to establish change over the course of the trail in regards to ecosystems and climate.

Climate data was pulled from NOAA using a custom grasshopper script. This script identified the closest NOAA weather station to the midpoint of each passage of the AZT that would hold the required data available. The data pulled included global averages for every single month from January 1st, 2014 to December 31st, 2019.

This allowed for the use of five year averages of monthly data as well as the ability to see change over time. These averages were then extracted and applied to a 10 mile radius around the trail.

To the right, one can see the variety of stations utilized in order to create different data maps for temperature, precipitation and wind. As can be seen, significantly more stations held access to temperature and precipitation data, providing more accurate results.

These stations were also typically closer to the trail, providing more accurate results, elevation differences and micro-climates notwithstanding.

For ecoregion mapping, data was exported from ArcGIS (sourced from the Arizona Trail Association and USGS) and applied to the same 10 mile radius map. All relevant data regarding an ecoregion’s precipitation, elevation, etc. was pulled from the USGS report on Arizona’s Ecoregions from 2014. As a result, there is likely to be changes in the six years that have passed, specifically as the result of climate change. The weather station data above helps to give us a more accurate view of aspects such as precipitation, that occur more specifically in locations nearby the trail, and not averaged across the giant expanse that is some of Arizona’s ecoregions.

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COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

SOUTHERN PASSAGES ZERO - THIRTEEN

18”

Avg. annual precipitation

OCT

21 - NOV30

Avg. date of first frost

61-151

Days above 86 deg. annually

MAR

21 - MAY31

Avg. date of last frost

5.6MPH

Avg. wind speed western direction

MOD-EXT Current drought conditions

LEVEL III & IV ECOREGIONS The southern passages of the AZT, while not as varied as the north, are striking for the presence of both the most bio-diverse ecoregion in North America and the most bio-diverse desert in the world. The trail, however, does primarily follow the ‘Sky Islands’ ecoregion as it climbs across a number of mountains and ridge lines on the way north. These regions are largely characterized by a higher rainfall and availability of shade.

20c 20i 22x 22w 22z 22aa 23b 23c 23d 23e 23h 23i 23j 23k 23l 81k 81l

81o 79a 79b 79c 79e

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81n

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

LEVEL III ECOREGIONS 79. Madrean Archipelago – This ecoregion is also known as the Sky Islands, due to being a region of basins and range with medium to high relief of 3000-5000 feet. The region is one of the most biologically diverse areas on the planet. There are more than 3,000 species of plants in the regions, over half of the bird species in North America, and over 104 species of mammals – making up the greatest diversity of animal species in North America totally over 7,000 plants and animal species.

81. Sonoran Basin and Range ¬ This region, characterized by vast swaths of federal lands, is home to large areas of paloverde-cactus shrub and giant saguaro cactus. The region is thought to be the most bio-diverse desert on the planet. This looks like discontinuous mountain ranges separated by wide, alluvial plains. The area can be characterized by warm temperatures throughout both the summer and winter months, and is very arid. There are more than 2,500 species of vegetation in the region, much of which is susceptible to winter-freeze – showing how rarely such an event occurs in the region. The area also is highly susceptible to the influence of monsoon rains throughout the summer, especially in the east.

LEVEL IV ECOREGIONS 79a. Apachian Valleys and Low Hills - The ecoregion is very similar to the Chihuahuan Basins and Playans found to the Northeast, but with greater precipitation and monsoonal influence. The ecoregion has also seen seen significant landscape change due to the influence of human development over the last 150 years. The physhiography is characterized by rolling valley plains with low hills and intermittent streams. Groundwater levels have been declining.

Elevation: 3200 - 5000 ft Annual Precipitation: 11-19” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 180-240 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 31/60; 66/95 Vegetation: Desert scrub and semi-desert grassland. Cacti and agave. Shrub and cacti encroachment as well as non-native species have drastically changed grassland areas. Mesquite encroachment has also been increasing.

79b. Lower Madrean Woodlands – This ecoregions is characterized by low to mid elevation mountains with some intermittent streams and springs. This is primarily a transition zone between grasslands and the ‘sky islands.’

Elevation: 4000-71000 ft Annual Precipitation: 13-28” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 160-220 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 30/56 ; 61/90

Vegetation: Madren encinal and evergreen oak woodlands as well as Madrean juniper-pinyon woodlands. There are also under-story grasses and plains. Some areas will also contain cacti and agave. Areas near intermittent streams might also contain woodlands of cottonwood, sycamore and willow.

79c. Madrean Pine-Oak and Mixed Conifer Forests– The area making up the ‘sky islands’ contains numerous steep mountain ridges, peaks and slopes literred with intermittent and flash-flood induced streams.

Elevation: 6500-10700 Annual Precipitation: 21-42” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 120-190 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 24/47 ; 53/80 Vegetation: The area contains forests made up of pine-oak, pine, montane fir and mixed conifer forests. There also exists other various alphine species mixed with species of oak and juniper from surrounding ecoregions.

79e. Madrean Basin Grasslands – This sub-region includes many of the remaining high-quality grasslands left within the ‘Sky Islands.’ Much of this native grasslands extends into the hills that makes up the Lower Madrean Woodlands.

These grasslands are plains and semi-desert, containing minimal shrubs and less non-native species compared to its surrounding regions. This region is a critical habitat for numerous bird, mammals and other endangered species.

81k. Arizona Upland / Eastern Sonoran Mountains - The area is made up of hills and low mountains interspersed with some streams and alluvial fans. These are highland areas that experience a bit more rainfall than the rest of the Sonoran Desert.

Elevation: 1500-4500 Annual Precipitation: 7-20” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 210-290 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 40/63 ; 74/100 Vegetation: Desert shrub with a variety of different cacti such as organpipe, saguaro and pricklypear among others.

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Elevation: 3400-5600 Annual Precipitation: 13-21” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 180-240 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 31/60; 66/95 Vegetation: The ecoregion is primarily characterized by semi-desert grasslands as well as shrubs as succulents like mesquite, agave, mormon tea and many others.

Like other regions, there is also some cacti encroachment.

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

81l. Arizona Uplands / Eastern Sonoran Basins - The ecoregion includes broad alluvial plans, fans and bajadas occuring between the large mountains of adjacent ecoregions. The area is a transition zone containing sediment and vegetations from many adjacent ecoregions due to the washes that flood into the area.

Elevation: 1500-3600 Annual Precipitation: 7-13” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 220-300 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 36/66 ; 72/102 Vegetation: Plains are interspersed with vegetation of surrounding mountains slopes like paloverde, ironwood, and others. There is also a small region of Joshua trees.

81n. Gila / Salt Intermediate Basins - Another intermediate zone, the basins can be characterized by sloping valleys of alluvial fans, washes and other effects of the monsoonal season. The area has, however, seen some of the most alteration at the hands of humans.

Elevation: 900-1800 Annual Precipitation: 7-11” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 260-340 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 38/66 ; 76/104 Vegetation: Primarily made up desert scrub such as creosotebush and white bursage as well as some cacti. However, most natural vegetation has been removed from the area.

81o. Middle Gila / Salt River Floodplains - This floodplain occurs along the middle reaches of the area’s rivers, creating large basin-floor deposits. The area has been extensively altered in the name of agriculture and invasive plants now dominate the riverbanks.

Elevation: 600-1900 Annual Precipitation: 6-11” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 260-320 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 38/67 ; 77/105 Vegetation: Mesquite, catclaw, and other desert scrub. The riverbanks are also home to cottonwoods, willows and tamarisk.

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

SOUTHERN PASSAGES VEGETATION

45°

JUNE MARCH

SEPTEMBER

Seasonal temperatures in the southern passages greatly vary, with significant elevation changes showing in average temperature. In particular, the area in which the trail crosses the Sonoran Desert are particularly notable for higher temperatures.

JANUARY

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

SEASONAL TEMPERATURE

85°

ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE

2015-2019 AVERAGE

45°

85°

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

2015

2019

Like much of the trail, the comparison in average temperatures in 2019 vs 2015 shows a slight rise in temperatures in only a short period of time. This is particularly concerning in areas already known for high temperatures during the summer months.

JUNE

SEPTEMBER

Precipitation charts shows a clear impact by the monsoonal season on sections of the trail, particularly by comparing June and September. Another interesting bit to note is the importance of winter vs summer precipitation as the trail moves farther north.

3”

MARCH

JANUARY

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

SEASONAL PRECIPITATION

.2”

ANNUAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION

2015-2019 AVERAGE

7”

30”

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

2015

2019

The southern passages of the AZT have seen minimal change in precipitation averages over the past 5 years. What is noticeable however, is that across the trail the precipitation is nowhere near the stated ecoregions highs for precipitation.

These ranges were provided in 2014, so it’s likely this 10-15” difference across the trail on average is due to the location of weather towers.

3 MPH

JUNE MARCH

SEPTEMBER

While the wind levels over the course of the year seem practically the same, there is a notable increase during June across all 3 portions of recorded data. This correlates with a pickup in wind from the western direction. This appears to be a precursor to the monsoon season picking up in July and other dust storm events.

JANUARY

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

SEASONAL WIND

10 MPH

ANNUAL AVERAGE WIND

2015-2019 AVERAGE

3 MPH

10 MPH

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

2015

2019

Wind, as would be expected, shows practically zero change over a 4 year period.

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

CENTRAL PASSAGES FOURTEEN - TWENTY SIX

13”

Avg. annual precipitation

OCT

01 - DEC31

Avg. date of first frost

31-180

Days above 86 deg. annually

MAR

01 - JUN20

Avg. date of last frost

6.1MPH

Avg. wind speed western direction

EXTREME Current drought conditions

LEVEL III & IV ECOREGIONS The central region of the Arizona Trail spends significantly more time in the Sonoran Basin and Range, with well over half of its time spend in this dry region. This correlates with significantly decreased precipitation and water availability in the region. This is especially important in an area where gateway communities, while frequent, can be hard to access due to distance from the trail and lack of roadways crossing near the trail. This correlates with the presence of three public water caches in passages 14 and 15.

20c 20i 22x 22w 22z 22aa 23b 23c 23d 23e 23h 23i 23j 23k 23l 81k 81l

81o 79a 79b 79c 79e

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

81n

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

LEVEL III ECOREGIONS 79. Madrean Archipelago – This ecoregion is also known as the Sky Islands, due to being a region of basins and range with medium to high relief of 3000-5000 feet. The region is one of the most biologically diverse areas on the planet. There are more than 3,000 species of plants in the regions, over half of the bird species in North America, and over 104 species of mammals – making up the greatest diversity of animal species in North America totally over 7,000 plants and animal species.

81. Sonoran Basin and Range ¬ This region, characterized by vast swaths of federal lands, is home to large areas of paloverde-cactus shrub and giant saguaro cactus. The region is thought to be the most bio-diverse desert on the planet. This looks like discontinuous mountain ranges separated by wide, alluvial plains. The area can be characterized by warm temperatures throughout both the summer and winter months, and is very arid. There are more than 2,500 species of vegetation in the region, much of which is susceptible to winter-freeze – showing how rarely such an event occurs in the region. The area also is highly susceptible to the influence of monsoon rains throughout the summer, especially in the east.

23. Arizona / New Mexico Mountains – The ecoregion, composed of approximately 42,000 square miles across Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. The region also holds Arizona’s highest peak, Mt Humphreys, within the San Francisco Peaks outside of Flagstaff, Arizona. This vast range of topography results in annual rainfall ranging from 7 to 51 inches. Typical temperatures also vary widely based on the various elevation of the region.

LEVEL IV ECOREGIONS 79a. Apachian Valleys and Low Hills - The ecoregion is very similar to the Chihuahuan Basins and Playans found to the Northeast, but with greater precipitation and monsoonal influence. The ecoregion has also seen seen significant landscape change due to the influence of human development over the last 150 years. The physhiography is characterized by rolling valley plains with low hills and intermittent streams. Groundwater levels have been declining.

Elevation: 3200 - 5000 ft Annual Precipitation: 11-19” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 180-240 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 31/60; 66/95 Vegetation: Desert scrub and semi-desert grassland. Cacti and agave. Shrub and cacti encroachment as well as non-native species have drastically changed grassland areas. Mesquite encroachment has also been increasing.

79b. Lower Madrean Woodlands – This ecoregions is characterized by low

to mid elevation mountains with some intermittent streams and springs. This is primarily a transition zone between grasslands and the ‘sky islands.’

Elevation: 4000-71000 ft Annual Precipitation: 13-28” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 160-220 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 30/56 ; 61/90 Vegetation: Madren encinal and evergreen oak woodlands as well as Madrean juniper-pinyon woodlands. There are also under-story grasses and plains. Some areas will also contain cacti and agave. Areas near intermittent streams might also contain woodlands of cottonwood, sycamore and willow.

79e. Madrean Basin Grasslands – This sub-region includes many of the remaining high-quality grasslands left within the ‘Sky Islands.’ Much of this native grasslands extends into the hills that makes up the Lower Madrean Woodlands.

These grasslands are plains and semi-desert, containing minimal shrubs and less non-native species compared to its surrounding regions. This region is a critical habitat for numerous bird, mammals and other endangered species.

Elevation: 3400-5600 Annual Precipitation: 13-21” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 180-240 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 31/60; 66/95 Vegetation: The ecoregion is primarily characterized by semi-desert grasslands as well as shrubs as succulents like mesquite, agave, mormon tea and many others.

Like other regions, there is also some cacti encroachment.

Elevation: 1500-4500 Annual Precipitation: 7-20” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 210-290 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 40/63 ; 74/100 Vegetation: Desert shrub with a variety of different cacti such as organpipe, saguaro and pricklypear among others.

81l. Arizona Uplands / Eastern Sonoran Basins - The ecoregion includes broad alluvial plans, fans and bajadas occuring between the large mountains of adjacent ecoregions. The area is a transition zone containing sediment and vegetations from many adjacent ecoregions due to the washes that flood into the area.

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

81k. Arizona Upland / Eastern Sonoran Mountains - The area is made up of hills and low mountains interspersed with some streams and alluvial fans. These are highland areas that experience a bit more rainfall than the rest of the Sonoran Desert.

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

Elevation: 1500-3600 Annual Precipitation: 7-13” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 220-300 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 36/66 ; 72/102 Vegetation: Plains are interspersed with vegetation of surrounding mountains slopes like paloverde, ironwood, and others. There is also a small region of Joshua trees.

81n. Gila / Salt Intermediate Basins - Another intermediate zone, the basins can be characterized by sloping valleys of alluvial fans, washes and other effects of the monsoonal season. The area has, however, seen some of the most alteration at the hands of humans.

Elevation: 900-1800 Annual Precipitation: 7-11” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 260-340 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 38/66 ; 76/104 Vegetation: Primarily made up desert scrub such as creosotebush and white bursage as well as some cacti. However, most natural vegetation has been removed from the area.

81o. Middle Gila / Salt River Floodplains - This floodplain occurs along the middle reaches of the area’s rivers, creating large basin-floor deposits. The area has been extensively altered in the name of agriculture and invasive plants now dominate the riverbanks.

Elevation: 600-1900 Annual Precipitation: 6-11” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 260-320 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 38/67 ; 77/105 Vegetation: Mesquite, catclaw, and other desert scrub. The riverbanks are also home to cottonwoods, willows and tamarisk.

23b. Madrean Lower Montana Woodlands - Containing high hills, low mountains and canyons, this region is blessed with more water than its predecessors on the AZT. The region is known for milder winters and wetter summers than other areas within the Level III ecoregion. This area, on top of the Mogollon Rim, signals the transition into the northern section.

Elevation: 4200-7000 Annual Precipitation: 14-27” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 130-200 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 23/51 ; 57/88

Vegetation: Woodlands primarily made up of juniper, pinyon, and oaks. However, this is interspersed with manzanitas and and mimosa as well as grassy areas that might contain ponderosa pine.

23h. Lower Mogollon Transition - The region is defined by high hills and low mountains with some deeper canyons. The area contains numerous springs and streams and thus a high level of water availability for trail users.

Elevation: 3000-5000 Annual Precipitation: 12-25” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 160-240 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 29/56 ; 65/95 Vegetation: The area, being a transition zone, contains a mix of vegetation from both 79 and 23, such as desert scrub, semi-desert grasslands, but also woodlands such as juniper, and oak.

23l. Mogollon Transition Conifer Forests - This is a plateau escarpment featuring slopes, hills and lower mountains, with the occasional canyon. Like other 23 ecoregions, it also has plenty of water sources in springs and streams.

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Elevation: 5400-7700 Annual Precipitation: 13-37” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 120-180 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 21/46 ; 56/84 Vegetation: The area primarily contains woods made up of juniper and oak, but, unlike regions at lower elevations, there’s also a high variety of pine forests.

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

CENTRAL PASSAGES VEGETATION

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

45°

JUNE MARCH

SEPTEMBER

Seasonable temperatures in the central section are similar to the rest of the trail, with huge differences in temperature from winter to summer. There’s also a strong correlation between elevation and temperature. Critically, some of the hottest sections occur in areas with the least water availability.

JANUARY

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

SEASONAL TEMPERATURE

85°

ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE

2015-2019 AVERAGE

45°

85°

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

2015

2019

Similar to the rest of the trail, there is a marginal increase in average temperature over the five year period in certain areas. As previously alluded to, this is especially important in early central passages where water availability is already limited. This is the case in sections 14 and 14 where water is already reliant on caches.

JUNE

SEPTEMBER

Annual precipitation in the area correlates highly with the change in ecoregions as seen by reduced winter and spring precipitation in the Sonoran deserts.

Interestingly, it also implies less precipitation in the lower elevations of the Mongollon Rim.

3”

MARCH

JANUARY

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

SEASONAL PRECIPITATION

.2”

ANNUAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION

2015-2019 AVERAGE

7”

30”

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

2015

2019

The annual precipitation levels have seen little change and once again seem to correlate to elevation in many places.

3 MPH

JUNE MARCH

SEPTEMBER

Wind levels are relatively consistent, picking up in the summer months in correlation with monsoon season.

JANUARY

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

SEASONAL WIND

10 MPH

ANNUAL AVERAGE WIND

2015-2019 AVERAGE

3 MPH

10 MPH

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

2015

2019

The average wind levels from 2015 to 2019 have also, as predicted, not changed.

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

NORTHERN PASSAGES TWENTY SEVEN - FORTY THREE

26”

Avg. annual precipitation

01 - OCT10

SEP

Avg. date of first frost

0-180

Days above 86 deg. annually

MAR

11 - JUL31

Avg. date of last frost

4.6MPH

Avg. wind speed western direction

MOD-EXT Current drought conditions

LEVEL III & IV ECOREGIONS There is a vast array of ecoregions in the northern section, although 22 is only experienced briefly in the northern section near the end of the trail and 20 barely skirts the edge in a small section. The Grand Canyon is especially recognizable.

20c 20i 22x 22w 22z 22aa 23b 23c 23d 23e 23h 23i 23j 23k 23l 81k 81l

81o 79a 79b 79c 79e

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

81n

COLE O’BRIEN | ASU DESIGN SCHOOL

LEVEL III ECOREGIONS 23. Arizona / New Mexico Mountains – The ecoregion, composed of approximately 42,000 square miles across Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. The region also holds Arizona’s highest peak, Mt Humphreys, within the San Francisco Peaks outside of Flagstaff, Arizona. This vast range of topography results in annual rainfall ranging from 7 to 51 inches. Typical temperatures also vary widely based on the various elevation of the region.

22. Arizona / New Mexico Plateau – Crucially, this large ecoregion acts as a transitional zone between the harsh dry ecosystems in ecoregions 20, 14 and 26 and the mountainous, wetter regions such as 21 and 23. The topography in the region ranges from plains to mesa tops with quick changes in elevation of over 1000 feet. The area is well known for Gunnison prairie dogs, burrowing owls, weasels, badgers and a multitude of snakes.

20. Colorado Plateaus – This ecoregion has a long geologic history due to its largely exposed rock formation of canyons, mesas, plateaus, etc. This is clear when looking at a vegetation consisting mostly of brush and sparse woodlands.

LEVEL IV ECOREGIONS 23b. Madrean Lower Montana Woodlands - Containing high hills, low mountains and canyons, this region is blessed with more water than its predecessors on the AZT. The region is known for milder winters and wetter summers than other areas within the Level III ecoregion. This area, on top of the Mogollon Rim, signals the transition into the northern section.

Elevation: 4200-7000 Annual Precipitation: 14-27” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 130-200 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 23/51 ; 57/88 Vegetation: Woodlands primarily made up of juniper, pinyon, and oaks. However, this is interspersed with manzanitas and and mimosa as well as grassy areas that might contain ponderosa pine.

23c. Montana Conifer Forests - These forests are found at a higher elevation and includes portions of multiple mountain ranges from the White Mountains to the San Francisco mountains. Here, the summer rains are especially important for vegetation that is often seen at higher elevations where monsoon season is like clockwork.

Elevation: 6000-9800 Annual Precipitation: 14-39” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 90-140

Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 14/42 ; 49/81 Vegetation: Ponderosa pine, junipers, douglas-firs, white pine and fir, and countless other alpine species. There is an understory made up of oak and various grasses such as sagebrush.

23d. Arizona / New Mexico Subalpine Forests - The region is defined by high hills and low mountains with some deeper canyons. The area contains numerous springs and streams and thus a high level of water availability for trail users.

Elevation: 3000-5000 Annual Precipitation: 26-50” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 60-90 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 10/38 ; 43/71 Vegetation: Spruce, firs, and aspen as well as douglas-fir in the sections with lower elevation.

23e. Conifer Woodlands and Savannas - This ecoregions contains high plateaus and low mountains with a large number of canyons. This also includes a high number of streams as well, especially in the higher elevations where snow melt occurs.

Elevation: 5000-8400 Annual Precipitation: 13-25” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 120-180 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 17/46 ; 52/84 Vegetation: Juniper and pine, with large areas of grama, Mormon tea, junegrass and many other grasses. However, it does lack the sagebrush typical of the north regions of 23.

Elevation: 3000-5000 Annual Precipitation: 12-25” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 160-240 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 29/56 ; 65/95 Vegetation: The area, being a transition zone, contains a mix of vegetation from both 79 and 23, such as desert scrub, semi-desert grasslands, but also woodlands such as juniper, and oak.

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23h. Lower Mogollon Transition - The region is defined by high hills and low mountains with some deeper canyons. The area contains numerous springs and streams and thus a high level of water availability for trail users.

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23i. Montane and Subalpine Grasslands - This region contains high mountain basins and valleys unique to this section of the AZT. This also means some springs and wetlands and even some small lakes not typical with the rest of the trail.

Elevation: 7500-9600 Annual Precipitation: 23-35” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 70-110 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 12/40 ; 48/76 Vegetation: Here there are rarer species such as Arizona fescue, Idaho fescue, species of pine, quaking aspen as well as the typical pines, douglas-fir and other northern woodlands.

23j. Northern Woodlands and Sagebrush- This is primarily a plateaued region with high hills and mountains as well as some canyons and plenty of springs, meaning a high availability of water.

Elevation: 5900-7800 Annual Precipitation: 10-18” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 110-160 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 17/42 ; 55/85 Vegetation: Here there are, as implied by the name, sagebrush and woodlands full of the typical junipers, pinyon and ponderosa pine at higher elevations.

23k. Sunset Crater Volcanics - Unlike its surroundings, this unique region actually lacks surface water. It is made up of hills, plateaus, cinder cones and lava flows.

Elevation: 5600 - 8000 Annual Precipitation: 13-19” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 120-180 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 15/44 ; 51/86 Vegetation: Here there is a variety of stunted and gnarled species of pine, juniper and aspen. There is also isolated vegetation islands that occur due to the lack of hospital areas within the region.

23l. Mogollon Transition Conifer Forests - This is a plateau escarpment featuring slopes, hills and lower mountains, with the occasional canyon. Like other 23 ecoregions, it also has plenty of water sources in springs and streams.

Elevation: 5400-7700 Annual Precipitation: 13-37” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 120-180 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 21/46 ; 56/84

Vegetation: The area primarily contains woods made up of juniper and oak, but, unlike regions at lower elevations, there’s also a high variety of pine forests.

22x. Arizona Strip Plateaus - The plateaus contain woodland and shrubland and are known for less sumer moisture. There are, however, still some intermittent streams and springs that create narrows valleys and canyons throughout the strips.

Elevation: 3400-7200 Annual Precipitation: 11-14” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 130-190 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 23/48 ; 63/91 Vegetation: There is primarily utah and one-seed juniper along with pine, with an under story full of big sagebrush and other grasses or brush.

22w. Grand Canyon - This famous ecoregion contains deep, eroded canyons created by a river gorse with a wide floodplain. The ecosystem of the area widely differs from its neighbors due to a huge elevation difference and availability of water in certain areas.

Elevation: 2000-8000 Annual Precipitation: 7-19” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 130-270 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 30/52 ; 67/97 Vegetation: The region primarily contains desert crub and small bushes. However, when near the rims there are Utah and one seed juniper woodlands. There’s also some famous hanging gardens created by springs that contain rare plants such as orchid and flaveria.

Elevation: 4200-6300 Annual Precipitation: 11-18” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 120-190 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 22/50 ; 59/92 Vegetation: The region contains a mix of semi-desert grasslands and semi-desert shrub-steppe - especially with sagebrush shrub lands and minimal tree cover.

22aa. Hualapai / Coconino Woodlands - The area contains a wide variety of mountains, cliffs, rolling hills, plateaus, and mesas along with more narrow valleys and canyons. There’s still some streams and minimal springs.

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

22z. Chino / Coconino Grasslands and Shrub-Steppe - This ecoregion is made up of a variety of valleys plateaus and flats. However, there is noticeably less water available, with there being few to no springs in the area.

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Elevation: 4200-6800 Annual Precipitation: 11-23” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 120-190 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 22/49 ; 58/89 Vegetation: The vegetation in this region has noticeably more treecover, containing pines, juniper and pinyons. There’s also a large variety of undergrowth with wheatgrass, muttongrass and winterfat featuring among many others.

20c. Semiarid Benchlands and Canyonlands - Areas of high relief are mixed with areas of low relief. There are mesa tops and narrowing canyons interspersed among large benches. These areas create large rims that allow for slightly more growth than the other areas of the Level IV ecoregion.

Elevation: 5000-7300 Annual Precipitation: 8-16” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 120-180 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 19/41 ; 62/90 Vegetation: Despite having sparse vegetation compared to region 23, there are still large variety of junipers and pinyons as well as typical undergrowth for the region consisting of sagebrush, saltbush, Mormon tea and others.

20i. Cold Desert Sagebrush - Grasslands - This ecoregion occurs in flat rolling plateaus and valley surfaces. This shrub-covered region is as flat as the larger ecoregion comes and has no woodlands.

Elevation: 3800-5200 Annual Precipitation: 9-13” Mean Annual Frost Free Days: 130-180 Mean Temperature (July & January Min/Max): 23/48 ; 61/94 Vegetation: There is shrub and grasslands mirroring 20c. containing sagebrush, winterfat, rabbitbrush and others, with no woodlands to be found.

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

NORTHERN PASSAGES VEGETATION

45°

JUNE MARCH

SEPTEMBER

Seasonal temperatures on trail are extreme due to vast changes in elevation.

This is especially clear when looking at the Grand Canyon, whose temperature is consistently lower due to nearly 6000 feet in elevation change.

JANUARY

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SEASONAL TEMPERATURE

85°

ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE

2015-2019 AVERAGE

45°

85°

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

2015

2019

The overall average temperatures here have shown some clear increases over time, particularly within the Grand Canyon itself. This is mildly concerning in the stretch from Flagstaff to the Grand Canyon, where water availability and gateway communities are virtually nonexistent.

JUNE

SEPTEMBER

Seasonal precipitation here is certainly surprising to some extent, with September seeing a much higher Monsoonal influence than expected. June, with schorching heat, is an especially precarious time to cross considering the lack of water.

3”

MARCH

JANUARY

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SEASONAL PRECIPITATION

.2”

ANNUAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION

2015-2019 AVERAGE

7”

30”

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

2015

2019

Over the course of a year, the precipitation in the region is very high and provides ample opportunities for water. However, the periods of rain and snow do not necessarily correlate with the point in which users will be passing through these sections.

3 MPH

JUNE MARCH

SEPTEMBER

Wind in these sections is primarily minimal, with moderate increases during the summer.

JANUARY

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SEASONAL WIND

10 MPH

ANNUAL AVERAGE WIND

2015-2019 AVERAGE

3 MPH

10 MPH

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

2015

2019

Wind changes, like other sections, are nonexistent over a 5 year period.

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GATEWAY COMMUNITIES 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01

Kanab Fredonia Page Jacob Lake North Rim South Rim Tusayan Flagstaff Mormon Lake Village Pine Strawberry Payson Tonto Basin Roosevelt Globe Superior Florence Riverside Kelvin Kearny Hayden Winkelman Dudleyville Mammoth Oracle San Manuel Summerhaven Tuscon Vail Sahuarita Green Valley Sonoita Patagonia Sierra Vista

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

GATEWAY COMMUNITIES PHOTOS

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BIBLIOGRAPHY Maps, Plant. “Arizona Interactive Average First Frost Date Map.” Plantmaps.com,

2020, www.plantmaps.com/interactive-arizona-first-frost-date-map.php.

Maps, Plant. “Arizona Interactive Average Last Frost Date Map.” Plantmaps.com,

2020, www.plantmaps.com/interactive-arizona-last-frost-date-map.php.

Nelson, Matthew. “Arizona Trail Management Strategies for a Changing Climate.”

Partnership for the National Trails System, 1 Nov. 2019, pnts.org/

new/arizona-trail-management-strategies-for-a-changing-climate/.

United States, Congress, Western Geographic Science Center, and Glenn E Griffith.

Ecoregions of Arizona, U.S. Geological Survey, 2014, pp. 1–2.

United States, Congress, Western Geographic Science Center, et al. Arizona/New

Mexico Mountains Ecoregion: Chapter 10 in Status and Trends of

-Land Change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000, U.S. Geological

Survey, 2012, pp. 113–120.

United States, Congress, Western Geographic Science Center, et al. Arizona/New

Mexico Plateau Ecoregion: Chapter 26 in Status and Trends of Land

Change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000, U.S. Geological Survey,

2012, pp. 263–271.

United States, Congress, Western Geographic Science Center, et al. Madrean

Archipelago Ecoregion: Chapter 28 in Status and Trends of Land Change in

the Western United States--1973 to 2000, U.S. Geological Survey, 2012, pp.

285–292.

United States, Congress, Western Geographic Science Center, et al. Sonoran Basin

and Range Ecoregion: Chapter 30 in Status and Trends of Land Change in the

-Western United States--1973 to 2000, U.S. Geological Survey, 2012, pp.

303–310.

Young, A. H., Knapp, K. R., Inamdar, A., Hankins, W., and Rossow, W. B.: The

International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project H-Series climate data

-record product, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 583–593, doi.org/10.5194/essd-

10-583-2018

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH DOCUMENT

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