Market 360º | 2021 - English version

Market 360º Research

Portugal Real Estate Market

January 2021 Annual Publication 1 | Market 360º 2021

Welcome 2020 began with an unprecedented performance across all sectors of the real estate market.

Throughout this study, the cross sectorial findings were that, until the outbreak of the coronavirus, new records would be reached. However, this completely unexpected situation, with an unknown and unimaginable profile, brought disruption to the market. Different segments were affected in dissimilar ways, but the overall conclusion is positive: real estate was one of the most resilient sectors in the pandemic. Following a second quarter of panic in a scenario of nearly total lack of knowledge and uncertainty, the third quarter brought some normalcy to the sector.

In the fourth quarter, the vaccine was no longer a mirage and became a reality, bringing greater confidence and momentum to the market.

At the end of the year, commercial investment reached €2.7 billion . This is the third highest result ever achieved in capital markets and, more importantly, it will play a crucial role in the recovery of the Portuguese economy.

Therefore, we begin 2021 with optimism, even if, as I write these lines, we are in one of the most critical moments of the proliferation of this pandemic, 2 | Market 360º 2021

with a new record number of daily cases and yet another general lockdown. The vaccination plan is under way and its effects will start to be felt, while this situation is (unfortunately) no longer a complete unknown. This is our framework!

As for structure, the picture gets better! Portugal maintains the attractiveness factors that set us apart in a global setting where the liquidity channelled to the real estate market as an investment class tends to grow when interest rates are low. Thanks to our country’s characteristics, we are in a privileged position to lead the race to attract more talent and more companies, and Portugal can be an important hub for many people who will keep working from home. On the other hand, new investment segments are emerging, like housing for long-term rental or co-living, presenting fresh opportunities that are no longer available in other countries.

At the same time, the sectors most affected by the pandemic and where the new trends created by the crisis are more evident, are undergoing major transformation. This is the case with offices and retail, as this is a time for reinvention: these spaces will have to provide users an experience,

surpassing the—until recently—mere purpose of convenience. This will have a great impact on how we see shops and offices, creating new and major opportunities for the property sector. However, I end with a warning: there are many structural opportunities, but the challenges that existed before the pandemic remain unresolved. Among these are the delays in the licensing processes and amendments to the Golden Visa regime. These are two major obstacles to the market’s ability to resume its evolution and gain a competitive edge in the international scenario, thereby driving the country’s economic recovery. Creating stable conditions so that investment can keep flowing to our market is essential, especially in a post-pandemic recovery!

Pedro Lancastre CEO JLL Portugal

Contents

01

02

03

04

Highlights

Economy

Offices

05

06

07

Industrial & Logistics

08

Retail

Investment

Residential

Development

09 Hotels

3 | Market 360º 2021

01 Highlights Industrial & Logistics Offices

190,000 sq m Take-up in Lisbon and Porto

Commercial Investment

€ 2,700,000,000 3rd best year ever

5.75%

25 b.p prime yield decrease

Retail

25.9%

Retail Turnover Index for Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Leather Goods (Nov 2020 vs. 2019)

Development

-5%

Licensed Buildings 2020 vs. 2019 Jan-Nov

Residential Investment

€ 25,583,000,000 Volume of Houses Sold in Portugal

Hotels

26%

Occupation Rate Occupation Rate 2019: 78% 4 | Market 360º 2021

Source: JLL; LPI; INE; Travel Bi

02 Economy 2020 was undeniably a demanding year, where uncertainty ruled the world. A year that got off to a promising start for the global economy and particularly for Portugal, but which proved to be detrimental to public health and global economies. Nonetheless, globalisation enabled a robust worldwide response to fight the Covid-19 pandemic, with highly positive results for the development of a vaccine and the creation of unprecedented financial and economic policies. The EU was able to approve an economic recovery plan valued at €1.8 billion that aims to minimise the negative impacts caused by the pandemic in countries, corporations and private lives.

2021 begins with more optimism. The population has started receiving vaccines, and public and private organisations and institutions are better prepared for the “new normal”, reacting rapidly and efficiently to the challenges that have emerged over the last year.

After achieving 2% growth in the GDP in 2019, in 2020 the economy is expected to contract 6%, estimating a recovery throughout the year that will lead to a 3.9% growth at the end of 2021.

5 | Market 360º 2021

The biggest impact on the drop in GDP will naturally be a result of a significant reduction in consumer spending (-6.8%) and exports (-15%). The abrupt halt in tourism, a noteworthy source of employment and a component that carries substantial weight in exports (services), also contributes to this contraction. Tourism was practically at a standstill, and alleviating travel restrictions and opening borders was not enough for the Portuguese economy to resume a dynamic summer season in 2020, since the virus was still a reality.

Regarding unemployment, this rate is expected to stabilise at 7.8%, although this may alter since it is difficult to foresee the real effect of the pandemic due to the lay-off regimes in force. Inflation is expected to register a negative value of 2%.

The pandemic provoked a major recession in Europe and led to a substantial increase in government deficits and ratios. According to Banco de Portugal, Portuguese public debt reached €268.1 billion in October, therefore the Government estimates that 2020 will close with a debt ratio at 135% of GDP. However, the ECB has undertaken an efficient monetary policy and created good market conditions to, for the first time,

issue debt interest at negative rates, as was verified in the last 10-year debt interest traded at record negative rates of -0.012%.

With most countries registering extremely high—and often unsustainable—debt levels, there will be pressure for them to be reduced.

The outlook is for economic recovery to begin in the second quarter of 2021, although this may be compromised by the current health crisis. The Government is now starting to plan the execution of the approved Economic and Social Stability Programme, along with a fiscal package and European aid package that, all together, will help implement responses to the consequences of the pandemic and relaunch the economy.

GDP -6% Private Consumption -4% Unemployment Rate 7.8% Exports -15% Inflation -2% Source: Bank of Portugal 3rd Quarter 2020

03 Offices Lisbon: Pandemic makes companies rethink their real estate strategies, delaying several processes “The performance of the office sector is evident, and the market fundamentals persist in Portugal, attracting both investors and corporations. Naturally, there was a reduction in the take-up due to the suspension or postponement of many decisions, especially those involving larger areas, as well as the implementation of remote working, which led many companies to relinquish part of their space in order to control and reduce costs. Despite this more immediate reaction, many companies are rethinking and redesigning their workspaces, adapting them to a hybrid work format where remote working remains a reality, but offices are being transformed into more attractive social and collaborative spaces where the employees’ wellbeing is at the centre of the strategy. This trend is especially relevant now that the so longed pipeline is coming to the market.”

Mariana Rosa Head of Leasing Markets Advisory Companies with decisions on hold

Average area increase

138,000 sq m

1,300 sq m

Take - up decreases 29%

6 | Market 360º 2021

Projects in pipeline

Average area increases 19%

Number of Deals

Vacancy Rate

104

6.8%

150,000 sq m 30% pre-let

Source: JLL / LPI

Take - up by Zone 2020 11% Zone 1 Prime CBD

Zone 5 Parque das Nações

Zone 2 CBD

Zone 6 Western Corridor

Zone 3 New Office Zone

Zone 7 Other Zones

34%

18%

138,000 sq m

13%

Zone 4 Historic and Riverside Zone

5% 19% Source: JLL / LPI

At the beginning of 2020, forecasts for the office market were extremely promising, with demand clearly exceeding supply and a high number of projects under construction or in the pipeline.

The onset of the coronavirus and the subsequent lockdown, along with the forced implementation of remote working, accelerated the underlying trends regarding new ways of working and space occupancy.

The Portuguese office market registered a take-up of approximately 192,000 sqm, of which 138,000 sqm in Lisbon and 54,000 sqm in Porto.

Although these figures reflect a respective decline of 29% and 17% compared with 2019, they result, on one hand, from the postponing or suspension of occupancy and expansion strategies and, on the other, the implementation of remote working as a response to the pandemic.

In an initial phase, this impact led companies to vacate part of their spaces, , in order to rationalise and reduce costs. This scenario resulted in the reversal of the downward trajectory of the vacancy rate which was ongoing since 2014.

Nonetheless, the product that is coming to the market is mostly of good quality and is therefore being taken up rapidly, indicating that demand for quality spaces remains dynamic which generates confidence among developers who have projects under construction or in pipeline.

Regarding market dynamics, smaller operations dominated the year, while deals of a larger scale resulted primarily from processes that were already underway before the pandemic. However, we must note that these large transactions resulted in a greater average area per deal, reaching 1,300 sqm in Lisbon, while in Porto 7 | Market 360º 2021

Despite the decline in the market momentum due to uncertainty, the office market was quite resilient, proving that the market fundamentals are still there, attracting investors and corporations. Therefore, rents have been stable during 2020 and prime values in Lisbon and Porto are at the same level as in 2019 25€/sqm/month and 18€/sqm/month, respectively.

It is important to note that rent steadiness has been sustained by a negotiating balance between landlords and tenants, with an increase in tenants’ incentives namely, the extension of rent-free periods.

As for new supply, in 2020 approximately 37,000 sqm entered the Lisbon market, 45% of which were pre-let,

emphasising the lack of supply to meet demand.

Approximately 150,000 sqm of new office space are currently under construction and due to be completed in 2021, resulting from years of market stagnation in terms of supply. Of this area, about 1/3 is already committed.

Porto records a similar dynamic, since in the last 2 years 60,000 sqm of offices entered the market and the projects under construction amount to 34,000 sqm, half of which are already pre-let, thereby reinforcing the market’s momentum and solidity.

The pipeline includes a set of iconic projects of significant dimension that aim to satisfy a chronic lack of quality spaces in the market. In this regard, it is important to stress the profound transformation that is taking place in the office sector. The hybrid model

8 | Market 360º 2021

Office Prime Rent - Lisbon 25.00 19.00

18.50

20.00

19.50 16.00

€ /sq m / month

the number of deals involving areas above 1,000 sqm increased more than 20%, which reinforces the trend for the absorption of larger areas in both cities.

Prime CBD

CBD

New Office Zone

Historic & Parque Riverside Zone das Nações

Western Corridor

Source: JLL

Therefore, the purpose of these new workplaces is not only to meet the technological and safety requirements of companies, but also to adapt spaces to new realities, as well as to employees’ aspirations and desires, with bigger and better social and collaborative areas, so that employees are in fact attracted to the office. Environmental concerns and sustainability certification are

Thus, it is foreseeable that, even in an uncertain scenario due to the pandemic, the opportunities created by the introduction of remote working and, above all, by the hybrid working model, have enabled new concepts and physical spaces that will tend to drive a dynamic demand for new, quality spaces.

30%

New Supply and pipeline under construction - Lisbon

also prevalent and represent differentiating factors that are highly valued by tenants, making products more resilient and raising them to higher rent levels.

sq m

(on-site & remote work) and an occupancy strategy focused on the workforce, its wellbeing, happiness and productivity, turn workplaces into key drivers and true catalysts of a unique experience that instils a company’s spirit, culture and values.

74 000

82 000

78 000

pre-let

150 000

85 500

54 000

22 000

2007 2008

2009 2010

2011

2012

35 000 21 500

2013

21 000

2014 2015

24 000

2016

28 000 28 000

2017 2018

Source: JLL / LPI

31 500

2019

37 000

2020 2021(f)

2021 150,000 sq m

Porto: A strong and dynamic market!

Companies attracted by new supply

Companies with an attitude “wait and see”

60,000 sq m

54,000 sq m

Concluded in the last 2 years

Take - up decreases 17%

Deals with large areas

Offices under Construction

16

34,000 sq m

Deals > 1,000 sq m Increase of 23%

50% pre-let

Source: JLL / PPI

Main projects under construction in Lisbon Exeo I (Lumnia) Parque das Nações 30,000 sq m Beato Creative Hub Other Zones 30,000 sq m WTC Western Corridor 25,000 sq m Monumental Prime CBD 19,000 sq m Ageas Parque das Nações 17,400 sq m Verde Parque Parque das Nações 10,400 sq m 9 | Market 360º 2021

Substantial increase in e-commerce is favorable to the logistics sector, mainly on Last Mile Industrial and logistics real estate is one of the sectors that stands to gain from the new pandemic situation. The volume of online sales has tripled and this has imposed the need for new storage units, especially in the last phase of the delivery process, the so-called last mile units. This increase in demand, which did not find an echo in the available supply, had a positive impact on rents in 2020. There is no doubt that this segment will have great dynamics this year in terms of demand, accompanied by the qualification of the supply.

Mariana Rosa Head of Leasing Markets Advisory

Industrial & logistics real estate came through the pandemic with a performance that was counter-cyclical to other occupier markets, registering a substantial increase in demand due to the boom in e-commerce. This situation led to the appearance of new market operators and new deals, with a particularly relevant increase in the demand for last-mile logistics facilities.

adequate supply in the market, especially for areas above 10,000 sqm.

In terms of take-up in 2020, we highlight the occupier operations involving Auchan, Vision Box and Uber, as well as LPF and Nunes & Guisantes Investimentos Imobiliários.

In 2021, this sector is expected to maintain high levels of demand, as well as growing interest from investors, and the current lack of modern, quality facilities should be mitigated with the launch of new projects in the pipeline.

However, even in a scenario of strong demand, take-up levels were limited by the scarcity of 10 | Market 360º 2021

The lack of quality supply, along with growing demand, led to an increase in rents, especially in zones closer to urban centres, where demand for last-mile logistics units is higher. Therefore, the prime rent stands currently at 6€/sqm/month in Lisbon, representing a significant increase of 20% y-o-y.

Industrial & Logistics Prime Rent 6.00

€ / sq m / month

04 Industrial & Logistics

4.00

4.00

Zone 2: Zone 1: Axis Carregado Axis Póvoa de - Azambuja Santa Iria Alverca

4.25

3.75

3.25

Zone 3: Loures - Via Longa

Zone 4: Western Corridor 2019

Zone 5: Lisboa (Matinha - Prior Velho)

Zone 6: Axis Montijo Alcochete

3.00

Zone 7: Axis Palmela Setúbal

2020 Source: JLL

05 Retail

Convenience and local retail consolidate their attractiveness “Retail was one of the segments most impacted by the pandemic, due to the decrease in sales resulting from the imposed lockdown and the absence of tourists. Restaurants were among the most affected, while sectors like décor and DIY, as well as sporting goods, were quite resilient. The food and essential goods sector registered a positive performance, and expansion strategies are expected in 2021. In high street retail, convenience and local retail receive a positive score since life in residential neighbourhoods boomed due to the increase of remote working. Shopping centres have been recovering their footfall since visits to malls have proven to be safe, although the performance is still well below pre-Covid levels.”

Patricia Araújo Head of Retail Retail Sales

Consumer’s Confidence Index

Nov 2020 vs. Nov 2019

2020 vs. 2019

-5.1%

-24%

Retail Turnover Index (Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Leather Goods)

- 25.9% Nov 2020 vs. Nov 2019 11 | Market 360º 2021

Source: INE

Retail Prime Rents 130

125

115

€ / sq m / month

105

45 35

Shopping Centres

Chiado

Avenida da Liberdade

Santa Catarina

Baixa

Lisbon 2019

The lockdown in Portugal and absence of tourists were reflected both in high street retail and shopping centres. Sales have been under substantial pressure, initially due to the widespread closure of shops and later in a scenario where these were obliged to operate under numerous restrictions in terms of schedules, capacity and additional hygiene & safety measures.

Food & Beverage units were severely impacted, but they have also been continuously striving to find new solutions. Many restaurants licensed patios to offer an additional outdoor area, as well as takeaway, a solution to maintain sales, although, in some cases this was not sufficient to cover operating costs. One emerging trend in this industry is the aggregation of various food &

Flores / Mouzinho

Porto 2020

Source: JLL

beverage chains to find spaces to set up drive-ins in the city centres and outskirts.

The décor and DIY sectors benefitted from people spending more time at home, displaying an increase in sales and launching expansion strategies. The same was witnessed in the sporting goods sector leveraged by products for exercising at home, a trend that intensified throughout the year. Moreover, a new more specific training trend emerged as an alternative to traditional gyms and some operators have already seized this new opportunity, creating workout spaces with formats that are smaller, more sophisticated and technological and therefore do not require large areas, allowing operations to be more competitive.

12 | Market 360º 2021

Main openings Lisbon Chiado Futah Santini Oslo Nómada

Av. da Liberdade Golden Goose Dsquared Roche Bebois Otro

Baixa

Príncipe Real

Cais do Sodré

Campo de Ourique

Terroir Nataria Nacional Dom 51 Static

The Botanical Den M’Arrecreo Zanotta Madam Bo

Cavalariça Buzz Burguer Amari Home PZA

Vesuvio Cortesia Flos Audaz

Source: JLL

High Street Prime Zones Lisbon

High street retail suffered from the absence of tourists, especially in the central and historic zones. Conversely, convenience and local retail thrived, benefitting from the livelihood in residential neighbourhoods, where shopping options were primarily centred on closer and traditional shops rather than larger retail schemes.

year registered a more positive performance, not only due to the vaccination plan expectations, but also to the enthusiasm around the Christmas season. There is an obvious rise in demand for restaurants and clinics, and food retail continues to show good prospects to purchase or lease new spaces.

Shopping centres are the retail asset class that suffered the most at the beginning of the pandemic, not only due to their forced closure, but also because of consumer reluctance to visit indoor spaces following the lockdown.

However, the average purchase ticket per visitor is expected to increase, since visits to malls are currently likely to be associated with a guaranteed purchase.

Nonetheless, sales volume and footfall are substantially below pre-Covid levels.

For 2021, the retail outlook is highly dependent on the evolution of the pandemic and duration of the lockdown periods, but the growth in convenience retail and e-commerce are expected to consolidate.

In this scenario, rent values suffered at the end of the first semester of the year contractions of 5% to 10% in high street retail and shopping centres which have persisted throughout the year. Thus, the prime rent in high street retail stood at €130/sqm/month (Chiado) and €115/sqm/month in shopping centres by year end 2020.

Regarding real demand for retail spaces, the end of the

13 | Market 360º 2021

In addition, the growing interconnection between physical and digital purchasing habits makes omnichannel a trend that will also flourish. At the same time, shops will have to reinvent themselves to truly become destinations where experience and customisation are crucial and distinctive factors in a scenario of growing competitiveness for customer loyalty.

06 Investment

Third best year ever in commercial investment!

“Despite the unprecedented circumstances in 2020, capital markets performance was quite positive. The total transaction volume reached €2.7 billion, making this the third-best year ever, although with volumes below those registered in the record years of 2018 and 2019.

The office segment was the most appealing and presented the largest transaction ever with the acquisition of Lagoas Park. This purchase is not only relevant because of its volume, but because it represents the entry of a new international investor in the Portuguese market, thereby reinforcing the country’s attractiveness, even in a scenario of uncertainty.

It is important to note the residential market for long-term rental assets which, although still in the early stages in Portugal, has received growing interest and shows good prospects for future development, with the first projects launched on the market in 2020.”

Fernando Ferreira Head of Capital Markets Investment Volume 2020

€ 2,700,000,000 Retail

40%

Offices

34%

Q1

55% 14 | Market 360º 2021

Hotels

16%

Q2

Q3

45%

Alternatives

6%

Mix Uses

3%

Q4

Source: JLL

The largest volume of investment continues to originate from foreign sources, demonstrating that Portugal remains on the radar of international investors and that the market fundamentals remain attractive. However, we note the growing activity among domestic investors, especially open real estate investment funds and pension funds, which registered the largest investment volume of the decade in 2020.

The office segment remained attractive as a privileged destination for capital, even registering the greatest volume ever, since the fundamentals on the occupant side remain solid. It is important to note the acquisition of Lagoas Park, which represents the largest operation undertaken in the Portuguese office market and reinforces the country’s attractiveness as an investment destination, even in a highly uncertain scenario.

However, in the short term, it is likely that constraints will appear in this segment, as some projects in the pipeline may be postponed.

Investment Volume Evolution 3,356

1,916

1,763 1,340 926

845

744

Hotels and retail were among the segments most impacted by the pandemic. However, the investment volume in hotel assets was

3,289

2,727

€M

2020 totalled a transaction volume of €2.7 billion, the third-best year ever recorded. Nonetheless, this figure represents a 17% drop compared with the €3.3 billion invested in 2019 and an 18% drop compared with the €3.4 billion transacted in 2018, both record years for commercial real estate investment in Portugal.

476

2008

2009

2010

188

127

2011

2012

National

317 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

International Source: JLL

15 | Market 360º 2021

Investment Volume by Sector 2020

6%

3%

15%

2%

34%

€ 2,700,000,000

Office

Alternatives

Retail

Mix uses

I&L

Others

Hotels

40% Source: JLL

still substantial, representing approximately 16% of the total invested, although 93% of the operations occurred in the first quarter of 2020 with the transaction of some hotel portfolios.

In retail, shopping centres were among the most affected assets struggling with major uncertainty regarding their current and future performance.

Nevertheless, the total volume of investment in retail, which includes the transaction of some shopping centres, was quite significant although, as with hotels, 75% of this volume occurred in the first quarter of 2020, in the pre-pandemic period.

Food retail assets are an exception in capital

16 | Market 360º 2021

markets, displaying financial vitality to lease and purchase spaces. High street retail presents a tendency to revise strategies among owners, with greater focus on divesting assets, but the sector remains interesting to core investors and may generate good opportunities for private investors with smaller investment tickets.

A segment that presents high demand but a lack of product to satisfy investor appetite is the industrial & logistics real estate which is driven by the boom in e-commerce, a trend that is expected to remain as long as there is suitable product on the market.

Yields Prime Evolution 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00

6,50

+4% vs.2019

5,75 5,25

-8% vs. 2019 +5% vs. 2019

4,25 4,00

4.00

+6% vs. 2019

3.00 2.00 1.00 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Office

Retail Parks

Shopping Centres

Industrial & Logistics

In this sense, and despite the challenges brought by the pandemic, capital markets showed their resilience, reflected in yields that remained at record lows. The prime yield in offices continued stable, although occasional fluctuations were observed in some zones, while increasing in all retail asset types. Conversely, the yield in industrial & logistics contracted by 50 b.p. to 6%, the lowest value ever recorded.

Prospects for 2021 present a challenging picture, although the real estate market is considered a refuge segment, given the uncertainty of the stock market and the low interest rates. Therefore, the

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

High street Retail - Lisbon Source: JLL

market should keep attracting investors from the private sector – even those with lower investment tickets – as well as traditional real estate investors and the international ones, who are expected to stay in the market. On the other hand, the increase in financing costs may challenge projects that require leverage.

Finally, and in line with the international trend, the residential market’s attractiveness has grown.

The Multifamily segment, in other words new build for long-term rental, is promising, although still limited by a lack of finished product.

17 | Market 360º 2021

07 Residential Sales volume remains unchanged despite the economic situation “The year got off to a promising start, with the best first quarter ever. The market decelerated due to the confinement imposed in the second quarter, but the summer restored an increase in demand and, since then, the market has made a gradual comeback. New supply is adapting to the trends that emerged from the pandemic, bringing to market residential options that include workspaces and outdoor areas, which will be extremely important to the market dynamics in 2021.”

Patrícia Barão Head of Residential

Transacted Volume in Portugal

Houses Sold

€ 25,583,000,000

167,500

Foreign buyers keep their interest in Portugal

Sales prices remained stable

Nationalities

Above pre covid Values

(forecast)

44

-8%

+1.8%

Source: JLL; INE; Confidencial Imobiliário

18 | Market 360º 2021

The residential sector was a true reflection of the real estate market’s resilience to the pandemic, with uninterrupted activity as a response to real demand. This momentum benefitted from the use of digital platforms, which helped the market stay dynamic. Consequently, the sales volume is estimated at €25,583 million, the second-best year ever recorded, while prices remained stable throughout the year.

2020 was expected to be the best year ever. In the first quarter, the market surpassed all records for the number of units sold and prices. With the mandatory lockdown in the second quarter, the market naturally decelerated, dropping around 20% in the units sold year-on-year.

However, once the initial shadow of uncertainty faded, the increase in demand was restored

19 | Market 360º 2021

and, since the summer, a gradual recovery was recorded both in the domestic and international markets. In fact, sales to foreigners remain quite active, with Golden Visa deals maintaining their attractiveness.

Houses Sold in Portugal

Number of Units and Sales Volume Evolution

25.58

24.06 19.34

In this scenario, as mentioned above, sales are expected to surpass a total of €25,583 million for the year, in line with 2019 volume. This performance results from an increase in the average ticket per purchase, with a focus on prime product, given that the number of units sold lessened approximately 8%.

On the supply side, especially for product that is currently in the project phase, there is an on-going adaptation to new trends that emerged with the pandemic. Developers understood the

25.58

15.60

14.81

14.20

12.48

10.43

9.54 8.32

7.73

120

130

94

76

80

84

107

127

153

179

181

168

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020 (f)

Number of Houses Sold in Portugal (thousands)

Sales Volume in Portugal (billions euros) Source: INE

PONTE VASCO DA GAMA A2/SUL ALGARVE

Av. D. João II

PARQUE DAS NAÇÕES

2ª Circular

Av. Marechal Gomes da Costa

OLIVAIS

Av. Almirante Gago Coutinho

CAMPO GRANDE/ ALVALADE 2ª Circular

AREEIRO

IC 19

n .A Av

tó n

a

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Be

CAMPO PEQUENO

BRAÇO DE PRATA/ MARVILA

io A.

Av. Duque d’Ávila

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Av. D. Carlos I

Av. Infante Santo

Av. de Ceuta

rta s

co be es

v. da s

ta

us

g Au

ALCÂNTARA/ JUNQUEIRA

Av. 24 Julho

ZONA RIBEIRINHA

CAIS DO SODRÉ

Av. da Índia

PONTE 25 DE ABRIL ESTORIL/CASCAIS

A2/SUL ALGARVE RIO TEJO

Lisbon Residential Prime Zones

20 | Market 360º 2021

SANTA APOLÓNIA

R.

BELÉM/RESTELO

Chiado/Príncipe Real

9,000

Riverside Zone

6,000

Historic Zone

7,500

Alcântara / Junqueira

5,000

Lapa / Estrela

6,500

Belém / Restelo

5,500

Campo de Ourique / Amoreiras

6,500

Braço de Prata / Marvila

5,000

Avenidas Novas

6,500

Parque das Nações

5,500

Campo Grande / Alvalade

5,500

Estoril / Cascais

8,000 / 10,000

Sete Rios / Praça de Espanha

5,000

Al .I

AVENIDA DA LIBERDADE

o Bento

A

D

5,500

Source: JLL

ZONA HISTÓRICA

CHIADO/ PRÍNCIPE REAL LAPA/ESTRELA

Colina Santana

e

RATO

R. de Sã

AJUDA

10,500

ad rd

CAMPO DE OURIQUE/ AMOREIRAS

LGÉS

Av. Almirante Reis

r

Aguia

e ib aL

PARQUE FLORESTAL DE MONSANTO

Eixo Norte Sul

A5

de Anto

.d Av

im oaqu Av. J

COLINA DE SANTANA

MARQUÊS DE POMBAL

nf an te D. H

Pe re i

Av .F on te s

PARQUE EDUARDO VII

Avenida da Liberdade

riq

el o

r ia

ue

Ag

SETE RIOS/ PRAÇA DE ESPANHA

e .d Av

Av. da República

AVENIDAS NOVAS

Prime Value (€/sq m)

TERREIRO DO PAÇO

importance of introducing solutions that include spaces that can easily accommodate remote working needs, as well as outdoor spaces to guarantee more quality of life for occupants.

These adjustments in projects under construction are extremely important to stimulate the market in 2021, guaranteeing that the launch of residential products will suit the new demand requirements.

It is noteworthy that bank financing remains in place for housing acquisition. While the total stock of mortgage loans has presented a tendency to stagnate, the volume of new granted credit is in line with the one in 2019, which is a positive sign for the market.

In the lease market, the impact of the pandemic was more visible. The absence of tourism impacted directly on the short-term rental segment, leading the owners of these properties to change their strategy and transfer them to the traditional rental market. Demand did not follow the growth in supply, thereby putting downward pressure on rents.

It is important to underline the increasing importance of rental, both on a global and national scale, due to three major factors: (1) Urban development, with forecasts for a steep rise in the population of major metropolitan areas; (2) Increase in property costs, both due to a rise in sale prices and increasing costs associated with

Housing Loans: Stock and Granted Credit Evolution 115 111

114

111

107

102

99

95

94

94

94

94

9.3

10.1

4.9

1.9

2.0

2.3

4.0

5.8

8.3

9.8

10.6

11.4

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020 (f)

Granted Loans (€ billion)

property purchases, and their growing pressure on family budgets; and (3) New Generations whose way of life is based on flexibility and mobility.

Regarding 2021, the prospects for this segment are encouraging. In terms of prices, a downward correction is expected in less prime zones, with a decrease in momentum and demand. Overall, forecasts indicate that the price of new housing will remain stable since new projects are not expected to be launched at an excessively speedy rate, thereby preventing oversupply.

21 | Market 360º 2021

Stock of Credit (€ billion )

Source: Bank of Portugal

This positive outlook also results from the resilience demonstrated by the sector to resist a crisis scenario and because 2021 will be a year with a vaccination plan under way. The domestic market is expected to be an important driver in residential sales. But Portugal remains a country with extraordinary characteristics that persist and therefore, it should keep attracting foreign investment.

08 Development Prudence, delays in licensing and restrictions on financing having impact on the sector “The pandemic has brought unpredictability to the market’s performance, along with the extension of licensing procedures and additional and more demanding requirements in financing, and therefore investors in this sector became more cautious.

This situation was alleviated in the last quarter of the year, with the acceleration of decisions by end-product buyers due to the announcement of the vaccine, and an ensuing increase in investor confidence. In spite of this scenario, the housing segment displayed an extremely positive performance, with the transaction of various important projects.”

Gonçalo Santos Head of Development

Licensed Buildings

-5%

2020 vs. 2019 Jan - Nov

22 | Market 360º 2021

The first quarter of 2020 anticipated a strong year for real estate development, with a robust pipeline of operations, both under negotiation and in due diligence phases. However, the outbreak of the coronavirus brought an atmosphere of uncertainty and instability, which affected not only the confidence of developers, but led to the postponement of investment decisions.

The unpredictable behaviour of prices and rents, extension of licensing procedures, more stringent financing requirements and an upward revision

of the risk premiums demanded by investors, turned developers more cautious in their search for new opportunities, albeit without stalling projects under construction. Investors adopted a more conservative profile, reflecting the added risk in the offers made. However, owners are not currently feeling pressured to sell and no substantial discounts compared with pre-Covid prices are accepted, which led to a mismatch in the expectations of buyers and sellers throughout the year.

Number of Licensed Buildings Evolution 6420

5258

4052 3678 3286

3330

3033

3180

2656 2458 1945 1431

1505

2014

2015

945

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

New Buildings 23 | Market 360º 2021

2016

Other Constructions

2017

2018

2019

2020 (f) Source: INE

In the last quarter of the year, the announcement of a vaccine for the new coronavirus helped improve the confidence of developers and investors, which was also reinforced by the good performance of residential sales to end buyers, despite the pandemic scenario.

Even in a setting of deceleration, several important transactions were made in the market.

2021 is expected to take off with a robust pipeline, both in terms of assets aimed for new-build and redevelopment, given the high volume of available liquidity and opportunities in the Portuguese market. In this sense the prospects in the housing sector are noteworthy, as besides the dynamics of the luxury segment there is an enormous demand for middle-class housing, both in the acquisition and rental markets.

The Alternative segment, which includes built to rent projects, will also be an important target for developers, given the extremely dynamic demand from end users. As for offices and retail, due to stronger impact from the pandemic caused either by the prevailing restrictions and by the new emerging trends regarding space occupancy, it is forecast that developers rethink previous investment plans and/or reformulate projects to meet the novel requirements. With the vaccination plan, the hotel sector should register a progressive recovery throughout 2021, thereby driving more decisions to invest in the development of new tourism assets.

24 | Market 360º 2021

09 Hotels

The market that suffered the most!

“The impact of the pandemic was felt both in leisure and business tourism. Vaccination will be crucial to the recovery of this sector, but the return of leisure travel is only expected at the end of the first semester of 2021, and the preferred destinations will be countries that are more sustainable and closer to home. Resort destinations may recover more quickly, as they are associated with the luxury segment, which will probably be the first to resume travel.”

Karina Simões Head of Hotels & Advisory

Number of Tourists

Airport Arrivals

Number of Overnight stays

8,000,000

25,000,000

-61%

-70%

RevPar

Occupancy Rate

10,000,000

-54% 24€ (RevPar 2019: 99,55€)

-63%

Global Income

26%

-66%

Occupancy Rate 2019: 78%

1,400,000,000€

Source: Travel BI Jan - Nov 2020 Portugal 25 | Market 360º 2021

Social confinement and flight bans provoked by the pandemic all over the world inhibit travelling and deeply affected the hotel sector. The absence of tourists pressured all occupancy and performance indicators, including the number of tourists and overnights, occupancy rates, RevPAR and airport flows, and 2020 is due to close with decreases between 60% and 70% in most of these indicators.

This impact is felt both in leisure and business tourism, and it is evident that, in a recovery scenario, the former will be most dynamic, since the continuous implementation of remote working will significantly influence business travel. The latter will display a more moderate recovery, as virtual meetings have become a part of everyday life and will tend to prevail in

the future, given that companies have realised they are technologically prepared for this change that has simultaneously enhanced economic an environmental savings.

The impending vaccines, namely their distribution and administration, will undeniably be an important milestone for the recovery of tourism worldwide. However, even with the progress in the vaccination plan, leisure travel is only expected to resume at the end of the first semester of 2021, because neither recovery nor confidence occur immediately.

It is anticipated that the first countries to receive the vaccine will be quicker to recover confidence in travelling. In Europe, domestic travels or trips to closer destinations will launch the traveling

and tourism market, although these will be totally dependent on the evolution of confidence.

Regarding intercontinental travelling, this will also be highly dependent on the extent of the economic crisis, as these are less affordable due to the greater cost.

Therefore, for 2021, the preferred destinations will be countries that are more sustainable and closer to home. Resort destinations may also recover more quickly, as they are associated with the luxury segment, which will be the first to travel again.

Specifically, in Portugal, the growing attractiveness for secondary cities and destinations located in more rural settings is expected to consolidate, which is

strongly leveraged by the domestic market.

Internationally, British tourists, who have historically a substantial weight in the market besides the limitations due to the pandemics have the Brexit challenge which may also impact negatively the Portuguese tourism market.

Lisboa

Porto

Edifício Heron Castilho Rua Braamcamp, nº 40 - 8º 1250-050 Lisboa +351 213 583 222 portugal@eu.jll.com

Rua Mouzinho da Silveira, 324 4050-418 Porto +351 225 431 090 porto@eu.jll.com

Pedro Lancastre CEO JLL Portugal pedro.lancastre@eu.jll.com

Fernando Ferreira Head of Capital Markets fernando.ferreira@eu.jll.com

Patrícia Barão Head of Residential patricia.barao@eu.jll.com

Gonçalo Santos Head of Development goncalo.santos@eu.jll.com

Mariana Rosa Head of Leasing Markets Advisory mariana.rosa@eu.jll.com

Karina Simões Head of Hotels & Advisory karina.santos@eu.jll.com

Patrícia Araújo Head of Retail patricia.araujo@eu.jll.com

Authors: Maria Empis Head of Corporate Solutions maria.empis@eu.jll.com Joana Fonseca Head of Strategic Consultancy & Research joana.fonseca@eu.jll.com

jll.pt AMI 8654

Jones Lang LaSalle © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. All such documentation and information remains the property of Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be kept confi dential. Reproduction of any part of this document is authorized only to the extent necessary for its evaluation. It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorization of Jones Lang LaSalle. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof.

27 | Market 360º 2021