Coastal Properties Group Market Report 2020, Q4

Fourth Quarter 2020 Market Report Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Pinellas REALTOR® Organization

Economic Overview Nationally By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Nationally, the economy finished 2020 with strong Q4 GDP growth of 4%, with overall 2020 GDP growth down 4% over 2019, still a very strong showing given where we were back in the spring. The forecast for 21Q1 is substantially more subdued. Growth is unlikely to exceed 1.5%, due to a combination of colder weather, continuing coronavirus concerns, and the meaningful slowdown in the economy in November and December 2020, that resulted from the end of the spring fiscal stimulus. Collectively, these factors gave us weak momentum moving into 2021. The December stimulus that is just beginning to flow through the economy should result in improved growth starting in mid Q1 and onward, and the proposed $1.9 trillion Biden stimulus will further boost recovery for the rest of the year. Economic growth should improve over the remaining three quarters of 2021, such that by the middle of this year GDP is back to where it was before the onset of the pandemic.

As for employment, it will probably take until late 2022 or early 2023 for it to fully recover. Inflation is likely to remain subdued through most of 2021, and the Fed is not expected to raise interest rates for at least several years. If long-term rates do start to rise, the Fed will probably shift to purchasing more long-term bonds to push rates down and might well increase the size of their monthly purchases. While Washington is primarily focused on pandemic recovery now, at some point attention will turn to tax policy, with the expectation that there will be tax hikes for incomes above $400,000, mostly likely passed in the fall of 2021 and starting in tax year 2022. Regarding the stock market, with low rates prevailing and corporate earnings growth expected to be solid in 2021, and with the addition of substantial fiscal stimulus, the stock market, as measured by any index, should have a good year. While the GameStop/Reddit phenomenon captured headlines, its impacts were confined to a handful of stocks and did not have any meaningful impact on larger financial markets.

The housing market is expected to remain strong through 2021 due to a combination of favorable demographics, continued low interest rates, easier access to credit, and a continued lack of new and existing inventory. That said, existing and new sales are very unlikely to exceed the very strong levels of activity they have exhibited over the last half of 2020. They should, however, be able to maintain or come very close to maintaining that level of activity during 2021.

Home prices should continue to rise, but by about half the rate they experienced in 2020. Housing is a bright spot in our recovering economy and should remain so going forward.

Economic Overview Q4 2020 Florida Overview: In Florida, the statewide unemployment rate was 6.1% as of 12/2020 and it has been steadily declining as it dropped from a peak of 13.8% in April 2020, both points below the national average. In Hillsborough County, the peak was 12.3% in April and the current rate is 5.3%, while in Pinellas County, April peak was 14.1% and currently is 5.0%. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment bottomed out at 129,500 in late December but have steadily risen since and are at 157,201 for the week ended 01/16/21. This mirrors the overall US economy, which appears in the last several months to be temporarily sputtering. As vaccination rates improve, tourism rebounds, and fiscal stimulus courses through the economy, unemployment numbers should continue to improve.

Across the state of Florida through December, the median sales price of single-family homes rose 9.6% to $290,000

Across the state of Florida through December, the median sales price of single-family homes rose 9.6% to $290,000 and condo/townhomes prices rose 12% to $215,000 compared to 2019. Closed sales of single-family homes across the state for the year were up 5.8% to 310,000 and sales of townhomes and condos were up 2.5% to 119,336. As inventory levels continue to decline, all indications are for little relief in this very tight market through at least mid-2021.

The Hillsborough/Pinellas real estate market ended 2020 with more than $17.7 billion in overall sales volume, a nearly 20% increase over 2019, driven almost entirely by large gains in the second half of the year. This was, at least in part, due to the Covid-19 pandemic which caused shutdowns in many areas and created an unprecedented exodus from northern urban areas to appealing areas like Tampa/St. Petersburg/Clearwater Beach. Looking into 2021, even as widespread vaccination is achieved across the country, the coastal lifestyle, relative affordability compared to other desirable areas, and the tax benefits of living in Florida should keep Tampa in the news as one of the premiere places to live.

Hillsborough County Single Family Homes The median price for single family homes in Hillsborough County for the 4th quarter of 2020 rose to an all-time median high price of $295,000, up 16% over the 4th quarter of 2019. Average sale prices jumped by 16% to $367,116.

For all of 2020, closed sales rose from 21,196 in 2019 to 22,578, a 6.5% increase, with the gain largely occurring in the last half of the year.

The most expensive singlefamily home sold in Tampa Bay in 2020 was for $9.1 million, while in 2019 it was $7.5 million.

The number of sales in the 4th quarter grew by 14% to 5,827, and overall sales volume rose 32% to $2.1 billion dollars, up from $1.6 billion last year.

The most expensive single-family home sold in Tampa Bay in 2020 was for $9.1 million, while in 2019 it was $7.5 million.

Compared to last year, average days on market plummeted from 49 to 29 and percent of sold price to original listing price rose slightly from 98% to 99%.

Median Sold Price 250

$295,000

16%

$255,000

200 150

2019 vs 2020

100 50 0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Aver age Sold Price

16%

2019 vs 2020

$367,116

400 350

Thousands

Thousands

300

$317,251

300 250 200 150 100 50 0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Closed Sales 6000 5000

5,827

14%

5,110

4000

2019 vs 2020

3000 2000 1000 2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Dollar Volume 2.5 2.0

Billions

0

$2,139,183,054 $1,621,150,342

1.5

32%

2019 vs 2020

1.0 0.5 0.0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

% Sold Price to Original List Price

1%

2019 vs 2020

98%

99%

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

New Listings

Aver age Days on Market

5,188

5,353

49

29

2019

2020

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Fourth Quarter

3%

-41%

2019 vs 2020

2019 vs 2020

226 5th Ave N #1406 St Petersburg, Florida 2 BEDROOMS | 2 FULL | 1 HALF | 2 , 514 SQFT

435 Bayview Dr Belleair, Florida

5 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL | 2 HALF | 5,955 SQFT

Hillsborough County Condos and Townhomes Townhome and condo prices in Hillsborough are also up over 2019, with the median price gaining 8% to $189,000, and the average sales price up 12% to $242,066.

The number of sold properties in Q4 rose to 1,660, the highest level of recent memory and was up 21% from last year. Sales volume was up 36% to $402 million from $295 million. For all of 2020, closed sales gained 5% over 2019, rising to 5,974.

In the condo/townhome market, the most expensive home sold this year was for just above $3.95 million compared to $2.2 million the year before.

Compared to 19Q4, average days on market for condos/ townhomes fell by 26% from 47 to 35 days and percent of sold price to original list price was unchanged at 98%.

In the condo/ townhome market, the most expensive home sold this year was for just above $3.95 million compared to $2.2 million the year before.

Median Sold Price $175,000

$189,000

150

8%

2019 vs 2020

100 50 0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Aver age Sold Price

12%

2019 vs 2020

250

Thousands

Thousands

200

$215,995

$242,066

200 150 100 50 0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Closed Sales 2000 1500

1,660

21%

1,367

1000

2019 vs 2020

500

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Dollar Volume 500

300

36%

$401,829,705

400

Millions

0

$295,210,503

2019 vs 2020

200 100 0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

% Sold Price to Original List Price

0%

2019 vs 2020

98%

98%

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

New Listings

Aver age Days on Market

1,353

1,503

47

35

2019

2020

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

11%

2019 vs 2020

Fourth Quarter

-31%

2019 vs 2020

371 Channelside Walk Way #1902 Tampa, Florida

3 BEDROOMS | 2 FULL | 1 HALF | 4,372 SQFT

180 Beach Dr Ne #2001

St Petersburg, Florida 3 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL | 1 HALF | 3,660 SQFT

Pinellas County Single Family Homes In Pinellas County, median sales prices of single-family homes rose 17% to $321,950, while average prices gained 25% and rose to $441,232. Sales rose smartly from 3,145 in 2019 to 3,560 in 2020, a 13% increase, and dollar volume rose by 41% to almost $1.6 billion from $1.1 billion.

The most expensive single-family home sold in 2020 in Pinellas sold for $9.3 million. By comparison, the most expensive single-family home sold during 2019 was for $16.5 million.

Average days on market for single-family homes in Pinellas County shrank from 48 in 2019 to 29 in 2020 and percent sold price to original list price inched up from 97% in 2019 to 98% in 2020.

The most expensive single-family home sold in 2020 in Pinellas sold for $9.3 million.

By comparison, the most expensive singlefamily home sold during 2019 was for $16.5 million.

Median Sold Price 300

$321,950 $275,000

250 200

17%

2019 vs 2020

150 100 50 0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Aver age Sold Price

25%

2019 vs 2020

500

Thousands

Thousands

350

400

$441,232 $353,186

300 200 100 0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Closed Sales 4000 3500

13%

3,560

3,145

3000 2500

2019 vs 2020

2000 1500 1000 500 2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Dollar Volume

41%

2.0

$1,570,787,226

Billions

0

1.5

$1,110,770,073

2019 vs 2020

1.0 0.5 0.0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

% Sold Price to Original List Price

1%

2019 vs 2020

97%

98%

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

New Listings

Aver age Days on Market

3,347

3,535

48

29

2019

2020

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Fourth Quarter

6%

-40%

2019 vs 2020

2019 vs 2020

10836 Thoroughbred Ln New Port Richey, Florida 6 BEDROOMS | 6 FULL | 4,688 SQFT

3755 Mullenhurst Dr E Palm Harbor, Florida

4 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL | 2 HALF | 7,935 SQFT

Pinellas County Condos and Townhomes Condo/townhome prices in Pinellas County increased significantly, with median prices rising a healthy 25% to $218,000 and average sales prices jumped an equally impressive 22% to $311,775. The number of sales increased 20% to 2,254, while sales volume rose 47% to slightly over $700 million.

In the condo/townhome market, the most expensive property went for $6.650 million this year, compared to $6.849 million last year.

Average days on market for condos/townhomes in Pinellas County declined from 59 in 2019 to 49 in 2020, a 17% decrease, while sold price to original listing price rose slightly from 96% to 97%.

In the condo/ townhome market, the most expensive property went for $6.650 million this year, compared to $6.849 million last year.

Median Sold Price $218,000

200

$175,000

150

25%

2019 vs 2020

100 50 0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Aver age Sold Price

22%

2019 vs 2020

350

Thousands

Thousands

250

300 250

$311,775 $255,062

200 150 100 50 0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Closed Sales 2500 2000

20%

2,254 1,874

1500

2019 vs 2020

1000 500 2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Dollar Volume 800 600 500

47%

$702,740,998

700

Millions

0

$477,986,745

2019 vs 2020

400 300 200 100 0

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

% Sold Price to Original List Price

1%

2019 vs 2020

96%

97%

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

New Listings

Aver age Days on Market

2,162

2,280

59

49

2019

2020

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter

Fourth Quarter

5%

-17%

2019 vs 2020

2019 vs 2020

18 Hibiscus Road Belleair, Florida

4 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL | 3,949 SQFT

15 Avalon St #4c/403 Clearwater Beach, Florida

4 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL | 1 HALF | 3,111 SQFT