Coastal Properties Group Q1 2021 Market Report

First Quarter 2021 Market Report

Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Pinellas REALTOR® Organization

Economic Overview Nationally By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Despite early predictions of a soft first quarter, economic forecasts have steadily improved and 21Q1 GDP growth is likely to now exceed 6.5%! With the combination of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, improving vaccination rates, substantial pent-up demand from the last year, and sizable amounts of forced savings in the trillions, there is every reason to expect growth of over 8% in 21Q2 and 21Q3. By 21Q4, growth will slow to a still remarkably strong 7% as the economy begins to slowly return to normal trend growth by early 2023. As for the stock market, with low interest rates likely to prevail for some time and corporate earnings growth expected to be solid in 2021, the stock market, as measured by the broadly diversified S&P 500 should continue to do well.

While the Federal Reserve has revised their 2021 forecasts for inflation, GDP, and unemployment, they have only slightly modified their 2022/23 forecasts. This means the Fed very much thinks the latest stimulus monies will lead to a shortterm boost to the economy but nothing more. They expect to deliberately look through this powerful short-term growth and any corresponding inflationary effects. As such, they remain strongly wedded to their existing inflationfighting plans and do not anticipate raising short term rates before 2020 and are unlikely to commence tapering of $80 billion/month in Treasuries and $40 billion/month in mortgage-backed securities before the start of 2022.

While consumer spending data in February was disappointing due to the combination of unusually harsh weather, the gap between stimulus packages, and payback for very strong growth in prior months, consumer spending more than recovered in March and should be healthy going forward. Relatedly, job growth is clearly turning the corner. After a slight decline in employment in December, job creation has steadily improved and topped 900,000 in March, and over the rest of this year, the economy should easily create between 500,000 and a million new jobs/month. Despite this unusually strong employment growth, the unemployment rate will be hard pressed to decline by more than a percentage point as more job seekers will be drawn to the increasingly vibrant job market. As a result, it will be advisable to focus primarily on job creation rather than the slowly declining monthly unemployment rate. The housing sector continues to look good and construction activity will likely rise by a modest 5-6% pace over 2020 given the many capacity constraints (labor and input prices) builders face.

Legislatively, the long-awaited-for “hard” infrastructure bill is now moving to center stage and will be followed by a “soft” infrastructure bill. Despite bi-partisan agreement on the need for improvements to the nation’s “hard” infrastructure including highways, bridges and broadband, these bills will most likely be narrowly passed along partisan lines due to major disagreements about the size of the bills, and how to fund them. If passage is to occur, it must happen prior to the 2022 election cycle. Unlike the many stimulus packages, this legislative effort will boost economic activity over an extended period of most likely five to eight years.

Economic Overview Q1 2021 Florida Overview: In Florida, the statewide unemployment rate was 4.7% as of 3/2021, well below the national average and down substantially from the peak of 14.2% in May of 2020. In Hillsborough County, the February 2021 unemployment rate was 4.2%, while in Pinellas County it was 4.0%. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment bottomed out at 129,575 in late December, rose through early February, peaking at 228,008, but have since declined and are now at 134,896. Recently released 2020 GDP results show a $1.1 trillion Florida economy, down a surprisingly small 1% from 2019 despite pandemic disruption.

Like the rest of the country, Florida should benefit from improving vaccination rates and the associated return of tourism and strong job creation.

Across the state of Florida, February median sale prices of single-family homes rose to $314,900, a 16.6% gain over February 2020

Across the state of Florida, February median sale prices of singlefamily homes rose to $314,900, a 16.6% gain over February 2020, while townhome/condo median sale prices rose by the same 16.6% to $233,240. Closed sales of single-family homes in February were up 15.7% while condo/townhome sales were up 28.7%. Statewide, inventories continue declining, with single-family listings down 60.6% to just 1.3 month’s supply of inventory. Condo and townhome inventories, while down 37% from this time last year, are much less constrained, with a 3.4 month’s supply.

The Hillsborough/Pinellas real estate market kicked off 2021 in strong fashion, with more than $4.6 billion in overall sales volume, a nearly 59% increase over 20Q1, despite profoundly low levels of inventory. Across the Counties, there is just a 0.5 month’s supply of single-family homes and a just slightly better 0.55 month’s supply of condo and townhome inventory, far below state levels. Not surprisingly, prices are at all-time highs, with the median single-family home price at $315,000, up from $265,700 last year and $301,500 last quarter. Townhomes and condos show similar percentage gains, with a median price of $211,000, up from $182,500 last year and $198,688 last quarter. Still, despite high prices, sales activity remains surprisingly strong with combined sales of both types of inventory up 31% over last year, a sign of unrelenting demand. Clearly, we are, and will likely remain in, a seller’s market for the foreseeable future.

Hillsborough County Single Family Homes Both median and average prices for single family homes in Hillsborough County for the first quarter of 2021 rose to all-time highs. Median prices of $305,000, were up 17% over the first quarter of 2020 and average sale prices jumped by 20% to $385,786.

The most expensive singlefamily home sold in Hillsborough County during the first quarter of 2021 was for $5.3 million.

First quarter sales volume rose 34% to $1.9 billion, up from $1.4 billion last year.

For the first quarter, closed sales rose by 11.0% to 4,969, while new listings fell 12% to 5,510. There are 983 active listings at the end of March, just a half of month’s supply of inventory.

Compared to the same period last year, average days on market declined 45% to 29 and percent of sold price to original listing price rose slightly from 98% to 99%.

Median Sold Price 250

$305,000 $260,000

200 150 100

Aver age Sold Price

50 0

2020 2019

FIRST QUARTER

17% 2020 vs 2021

$385,786

400

2021 2020

350

Thousands

Thousands

300

$320,427

300 250 200 150 100 50 0

2020 2019

2021 2020

FIRST Quarter

20%

2020 vs 2021

Closed Sales 5000

4,969

2.5

4,464

2.0

Billions

6000

Dollar Volume

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

2020 2019

First Quarter

$1,430,384,750

1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

2021 2020

$1,916,970,050

2020 2019

2021 2020

First Quarter

11%

34%

2020 vs 2021

2020 vs 2021

% Sold Price to Original List Price

98%

99%

2020 2019

2021 2020

1% 2020 vs 2021

First Quarter

New Listings

Aver age Days on Market

6,291

5,510

53

29

2020

2021

2020

2021

First Quarter

-12%

2020 vs 2021

First Quarter

-45%

2020 vs 2021

636 PONCE DE LEON BLVD Belleair, Florida

5 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL | 1 HALF | 4,056 SQF T

120 Harbor View Lane Belleair, Florida

6 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL | 1 HALF | 4,315 SQF T

Hillsborough County Condos and Townhomes Median prices for townhome and condos in Hillsborough County are up 16% to $208,000, while the average sales price jumped 21% to $273,417, both record levels.

Sales volume rose a staggering 65% compared to 20Q1 to a record $450 million.

The number of sold properties in the first quarter rose 36% to 1,646 and new listings rose 5% to 1,828. There are just 286 active listings on the market at the end of March, which represents about two weeks’ worth of inventory.

Compared to 20Q1, average days on market for condos/ townhomes fell to 34 days, down by 36% from last year, and percent of sold price to original list price increased from 98% to 99%.

In the condo/ townhome market, the most expensive home sold so far this year in Hillsborough County sold for nearly $6.9 million.

Median Sold Price $208,000

16%

$179,660

150

2020 vs 2021

100 50 0

2020 2019

2021 2020

First Quarter

Aver age Sold Price $273,417

21% 2020 vs 2021

250

Thousands

Thousands

200

$226,453

200 150 100 50 0

2020 2019

First Quarter

2021 2020

Closed Sales 2000

500

1,646

1000 500 0

$450,044,821

400

1,208

Millions

1500

Dollar Volume

2020 2019

300 200 100 0

2021 2020

$273,554,887

2020 2019

First Quarter

2021 2020

First Quarter

36%

65%

2020 vs 2021

2020 vs 2021

% Sold Price to Original List Price

98%

99%

2020

2021

1%

2020 vs 2021

First Quarter

New Listings

Aver age Days on Market

1,745

1,828

53

34

2020

2021

2019

2020

First Quarter

5% 2020 vs 2021

First Quarter

-36% 2020 vs 2021

930 BAYVIEW PLACE St Petersburg, Florida 6 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL | 1 HALF | 4,512 SQF T

555 5TH AVENUE NE #414

St Petersburg, Florida 3 BEDROOMS | 2 FULL | 1 HALF | 3,373 SQF T

Pinellas County Single Family Homes In Pinellas County, median sales prices of single-family homes rose 18% to a record $330,000, while average prices gained 24% and rose to $442,452, also an all-time high.

Overall sales volume for the quarter rose 37% compared to last year to nearly $1.5 billion.

Compared to last year, sales gained 11% to 3,273, while new listings declined 13% to 3,528. Available inventory is just 657 homes, a half-month’s supply of inventory.

Average days on market for single-family homes in Pinellas County fell 37% to 31 days during the quarter, while percent of sold price to original list price rose from 97% in 2020 to 98% in 2021.

The most expensive single-family home sold in Pinellas County during the first quarter was for nearly $10 million.

Median Sold Price 300

$280,000

18%

$330,000

250 200

2020 vs 2021

150 100 50 0

2020 2019

2021 2020

First Quarter

Aver age Sold Price

24% 2020 vs 2021

500

Thousands

Thousands

350

400

$442,452 $357,919

300 200 100 0

2020 2019

First Quarter

2021 2020

Closed Sales 4000 3000

2.0

3,273

$1,448,145,675

2,954

Billions

3500

Dollar Volume

2500 2000 1500 1000

2021

500 0

2020 2019

1.5

$1,057,292,974 1.0 0.5 0.0

2021 2020

First Quarter

2020 2019

2021 2020

First Quarter

37%

11%

2020 vs 2021

2020 vs 2021

% Sold Price to Original List Price

97%

98%

2019

2020

1% 2020 vs 2021

First Quarter

New Listings

Aver age Days on Market

4,054

3,528

49

31

2020

2021

2020

2021

First Quarter

-13% 2020 vs 2021

First Quarter

-37% 2020 vs 2021

5126 W NEPTUNE WAY Tampa, Florida

4 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL | 1 HALF | 3,359 SQF T

1227 OSOWAW BOULEVARD Spring Hill, Florida

5 BEDROOMS | 5 FULL | 2 HALF | 10,182 SQF T

Pinellas County Condos and Townhomes Condo/townhome prices in Pinellas County booked solid gains compared to 20Q1, with median prices rising 17% to $215,000, and average sales prices gaining 15% to $316,119.

In the condo/ townhome market in Pinellas County, the most expensive property sold for nearly $3.25 million.

Although prices are not quite as high as in recent quarters, overall dollar volume of townhome and condo sales rose by an astounding 60% to nearly $811 million, an all-time record.

The number of closed sales compared to last year increased 39% to 2,564, while new listings rose 5% to 2,842. Active inventories are just 689 units, a 0.6 month’s supply of inventory.

Average days on market for condos/townhomes in Pinellas County declined from 56 in 2020 to 48 in 2021, a 14% decrease, while percent of sold price to original listing price rose slightly from 97% to 98%.

Median Sold Price 200

$215,000

17%

$184,500

150

2020 vs 2021

100 50 0

2020 2019

2021 2020

First Quarter

Aver age Sold Price 350

15% 2020 vs 2021

Thousands

Thousands

250

300 250

$316,119 $273,929

200 150 100 50 0

2020 2019

First Quarter

2021 2020

Closed Sales

Dollar Volume

2,564

$810,529,907 800

2500

700

1,845

Millions

2000 1500 1000 500 0

600

$505,398,135

500 400 300 200 100

2020 2019

0

2021 2020

2020 2019

2021 2020

First Quarter

Fourth Quarter

60%

39%

2020 vs 2021

2020 vs 2021

% Sold Price to Original List Price

97%

98%

2020

2021

1% 2020 vs 2021

First Quarter

New Listings

Aver age Days on Market

2,705

2,842

56

48

2020

2021

2019

2020

First Quarter

5% 2020 vs 2021

Fourth Quarter

-14% 2020 vs 2021

2690 KEYSTONE ROAD Tarpon Springs, Florida 7 BEDROOMS | 6 FULL | 2 HALF | 10,596 SQF T

1540 GULF Blvd PH7

Clearwater Beach, Florida 3 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL | 1 HALF | 2,962 SQF T

2709 SUNSET WAY St Pete Beach, Florida 5 BEDROOMS | 7 FULL | 5,142 SQF T