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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
Key Takeaways
Temperature
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• Baja California will experience an overall warming trend across the Peninsula.
• The Mexicali and Sierra de Guadalupe regions will experience the greatest increases in maximum temperatures.
• Increases in minimum temperatures will occur mostly along the central region, between south of Sierra de San Pedro Mártir along the western side of the Peninsular Ranges.
• Three of the four major cities in Baja California are projected to see significant increases in maximum temperatures, posing a risk to the most vulnerable members of these communities.
Precipitation
• The Baja California Peninsula region is already experiencing conditions of water stress that will worsen over the next decade for demographic reasons, and climate change will only compound this trend.
• Increased evapotranspiration can be expected with increasing temperatures, reducing water availability and soil moisture.
• The Baja California Peninsula will observe a general decrease in average annual precipitation by mid-century, with a few exceptions.
• Rainfall in the state of Baja California shows high intra- and inter-annual variability, and decreases in precipitation will be strongest in winter, and will drive up evapotranspiration, decreasing moisture in the soils.
• The total area of very severe drought zones may increase for the state of Baja California Sur in the future.
Impacts to the Pacific Coast and Gulf of California
• The Pacific waters of the Peninsula will experience an increase in sea surface temperature between 1.0°C and 4.0°C.
• Marine heatwaves, particularly along the Pacific coast of the Peninsula, may become more frequent and more intense, negatively impacting the region’s kelp forest ecosystems.
• Data of cyclone origin in the northeast Pacific shows a significant shift in latitude for the past decade, and during warmer water cycles, cyclones exhibited higher intensity and also traveled farther.
• The Pacific coast of Baja California will experience an overall increase in upwelling.
• Overall, there is limited local data on sea level rise for the Peninsula, and what assessments do exist are focused on urban regions, showing that the Pacific coast may be at greater risk compared to the Gulf coast.
• Overall, there is limited available information on climate change projections at regional scales for the Baja California Peninsula and its surrounding waters, and that which is available is not current.
