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2020

Climate Change Impacts for Specialty Crops Southern California Region

Table of Contents 1

Executive Summary

Southern California Agricultural Context

State of the Climate

Climate Impacts to Southern California Agriculture

Consortium Overview & Outreach

Consortium Participation

Consortium Input & Recommendations

21 27 29 31 34

Climate Impacts to Producers Producer Challenges Strategies & Solutions In Action Recommendations for Resources & Support Research Needs

Discussion & Conclusions

Acknowledgements

Appendix I: Case Studies

Appendix II: Compilation of All Input

References

Resources and Additional Materials

The California Department of Food and Agriculture serves the citizens of California by promoting a safe, healthy food supply, and enhancing local and global agricultural trade, through efficient management, innovation and sound science, with a commitment to environmental stewardship. http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/exec/Public_Affairs/pdf/CDFA_StrategicPlan2019-22.pdf The mission of the Climate Science Alliance is to safeguard natural and human communities in the face of a changing climate. We do this through leading activities and creating partnerships which increase awareness of climate change impacts, promote solutions, and facilitate action. www.climatesciencealliance.org/resilient-roots

CITATION Jasperse, L., Pairis, A. (2020) Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops: Southern California Region. California Department of Food and Agriculture, Climate Science Alliance. Retrieved from www.climatesciencealliance.org/resilient-roots-resources

Executive Summary

The 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops of Southern California was convened in partnership by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) and the Climate Science Alliance. The vision of the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops builds off of CDFA’s 2012 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops, to identify climate impacts and strategies for resilience specific to Southern California specialty producers (California Department of Food and Agriculture, 2013). These efforts have provided a critical opportunity to hear from producers, researchers, and technical assistance advisors to identify the opportunities, recommendations, and actions for advancing the region’s climate resilience.

This document compiles the input from participants of the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops that was gathered through a series of workshops, online and paper surveys, one-on-one interviews, and outreach through the Climate Science Alliance’s network of regional partners. In addition, the document includes an overview of regionally-specific climate projections for Southern California, specific impacts and opportunities for the region’s specialty crop producers, and the strategies, priorities, and research needs identified by participants to advance resilience to climate change. The development of the global COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic throughout the timespan of these efforts resulted in significant impacts for farmers across the region, necessitating an alternative approach to outreach in order to ensure participation of the region’s producers. Lessons learned and priority needs identified during these circumstances are also included in this report to ensure the proper support and precautions are put in place so that producers can be resilient to future crises. These circumstances have also clearly demonstrated the importance of the region’s agricultural producers

during times of crisis, foretelling of the critical role they will continue to play in a future of more extreme climatic events. While the input of the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops highlights the many challenges Southern California producers experience now and could face in the future, it also showcases the many opportunities to elevate agriculture as part of the region’s climate solutions. As producers continue to adapt and implement new strategies to advance a resilient and thriving agricultural sector, Southern California is emerging at the forefront of new opportunities and innovation. The input of the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops outlined in this document lays the groundwork for informing and guiding CDFA’s future research activities and funding programs for years to come. Together, these ongoing efforts contribute to CDFA’s long-standing commitment to California agriculture, ensuring that the region’s agriculture continues to thrive now and into the future.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Southern California Agricultural Context

The 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops covers the voices of producers, researchers, and technical advisors from across Southern California, including some of the region’s major agricultural counties. The regions largely involved in the 2020 Consortium include San Diego County, the Inland Desert regions of Imperial and Riverside Counties, and Kern County in the southern portion of San Joaquin Valley. Each of these counties are unique in their agricultural context and thus face distinct challenges and opportunities for agricultural production in the face of a changing climate.

At a Glance: Agricultural Profiles

Imperial County

QUICK FACTS: • Ranked 9th county in California by gross value of agricultural production as of 2017 (California Department of Food and Agriculture, 2018) • One of the top producers of winter fruits and vegetables nationally and globally (Hopkins et al., 2018) • The inland desert region, including the Imperial Valley, is one of the hottest agriculturally productive regions in the world (Hopkins et al., 2018) Economic Value: $2.2 billion (as of 2018) (Imperial County Office of the Agricultural Commissioner, 2019) Average Size of Farm: 1,225 acres (Imperial County Office of the Agricultural Commissioner, 2019) Top Crops: Winter fruits and vegetables, alfalfa, and hay (Hopkins et al., 2018); one of the state’s top five producers of spinach, potatoes, cauliflower, broccoli, and onions (Imperial County Farm Bureau, n.d)

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Kern County QUICK FACTS: • Kern County was ranked as the number 1 county in California for agricultural production value as of 2017, with a Gross Value of $7.25 billion (California Department of Food and Agriculture, 2018) • One of the top vegetable producing regions in the nation, making up 80% of the nation’s total production of carrots • Over 100,000 acres of vegetables farmed each year (University of Cooperative Extension Vegetable Research and Information Center, n.d.) Economic Value: Gross value of all agricultural commodities = $7.25 billion as of 2017 (Kern County Department of Agriculture and Measurement Standards, 2018) Average Size of Farm: 1,202 acres (as of 2012) (US Department of Agriculture, 2012) Top Crops: Table/wine grapes; nuts such as pistachios and almonds; fruit including tomatoes, citrus, blueberries, cherries, apricots, and apples (Kern County Department of Agriculture and Measurement Standards, 2018); other vegetable crops including carrots, potatoes, lettuce, garlic, onions, bell peppers, and watermelons; and nursery products (University of Cooperative Extension Vegetable Research and Information Center, n.d.) (Kern County Department of Agriculture and Measurement Standards, 2018)

Riverside County QUICK FACTS: • Approximately 120 different commodities produced in the county, with roughly half of the commodities produced having a production value of over a million each. (Riverside County Agricultural Commissioner’s Office, 2019) • Number one producer of dates in California (Riverside County Agricultural Commissioner’s Office, 2019) Economic Value: Gross value of $1.3 billion (Riverside County Agricultural Commissioner’s Office, 2018) Average Size of Farm: 99 acres (as of 2017) (US Department of Agriculture, 2017) Top Crops: Vegetables, melons, and potatoes; trees and vines; citrus (oranges and red/ruby grapefruits); nursery products; field and seed; table grapes; with ornamental nursery stock as the highest valued crop produced in the county (Riverside County Agricultural Commissioner’s Office, 2019)

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

San Diego County QUICK FACTS: • Highest concentration of organic farmers in the nation (County of San Diego, 2019) • Ranked number 1 in California, and in the nation, in the production value of avocados, nursery, and floriculture (University of California Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, n.d.) • More farms and small farms than any other county in the U.S., with a total of 5,000 farms in which 70% are considered small-scale (University of California Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, n.d.) Economic Value: $1.77 Billion Annual Value (San Diego County Farm Bureau, n.d.) Average Size of Farm: The majority of farms (~70%) are under 10 acres in size (County of San Diego, 2018) ; (County of San Diego, 2019) Top Crops: • In order of total economic value: Nursery & cut flower products; Fruit & Nut crops; Vegetables & Vines; Field Crops (County of San Diego, 2018) • In order of highest yielding edible crops: Avocados, Citrus, Vine-Ripened Tomatoes (County of San Diego, 2019)

" Farming provides a business and lifestyle that suits our abilities and connection to the land.

" 4

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

State of the Climate

The impacts of climate change vary across the state, and advancements in climate science provide important insights in understanding how climate change drivers will unfold at a regional and local scale. Regionally-specific climate science is particularly important in understanding local impacts and opportunities that can help advance actionable science and can inform local-level and statewide action (Kalansky et al., 2018).

CALIFORNIA’S CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS California’s most recent Climate Change Assessment provides valuable information to understand climate-related vulnerability and build resilience to climate impacts at the local level, including temperature, wildfire, water, sea level rise, and governance. Learn more at: www.climateassessment.ca.gov

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Southern California Climate Profile: A Story of Extremes TEMPER ATURE Model projections generally indicate continued warming across the Southern California region, with significant increases in temperature projected over the next several decades, varying across coastal and inland areas.1, 2, 3, 4

Increases in overall average temperatures, with higher daily maximum temperatures and more frequent and intense heat events.

Warming of minimum temperatures, with higher wintertime, nighttime, and daily minimum temperatures.

More extreme variability, with potential for frequent cold outbreaks.

PRECIPITATION Southern California has the greatest year-to-year precipitation variability in the U.S.5 and spatially across the region’s topography1. In general, climate models indicate high year-to-year variability with more frequent and severe droughts punctuated by intensified extreme precipitation events.1, 2, 3, 6

It is projected that the region will experience more dry days, dry years, and more frequent and intense droughts.

While southern regions will likely become drier, precipitation will become more variable and extreme events will intensify.

WILDFIRE

WIND

FOG

While wildfire is a naturally occurring process across Southern California’s landscapes and ecosystems, it is expected that wildfire risk in the coming years will heighten with increased temperatures and dry conditions coinciding with Santa Ana wind events.1, 2, 3

In addition to fueling many of the region’s large fires, strong wind events can also impact crops both directly through physical damage and indirectly through altered growing conditions and plant processes7 as well as pollination and fertilization8. More research is needed for future projections.

Coastal low clouds and fog (CLCF) buffer dry conditions and modulate temperatures along the coast1. While projections for future changes of CLCF remain uncertain9, changes in CLCF extent and timing could impact natural and human communities that depend on its buffering capabilities.

1: Kalansky et al., 2018. 2: Bedsworth et al., 2018. 3: Hopkins et al., 2018. 4: Pathak et al., 2018. 5: Dettinger, 2011. 6: Jennings et al., 2018. 7: California Avocado Commission, 2019. 8: California Department of Food and Agriculture, 2013. 9: Clemesha et al., 2016

Regional Climate Impacts While overall trends in climate are mostly consistent across Southern California, the impacts of a changing climate will vary across the region’s diverse topography and micro-climates1. Major agricultural regions, including San Diego County and counties within the Inland Desert and South San Joaquin regions, will experience distinct climate impacts in the coming years, as listed below:

SOUTH S AN JOAQUIN / KERN COUNT Y 1. Increases in average wintertime (January) temperatures of 7°F to 10°F and average summer (July) temperatures of 9°F to 11°F by the end of century, with especially high temperature increases across the eastern mountainous regions of the Southern Central Valley.2 2. Declines in annual precipitation of up to 3.5 inches in lower elevation areas and up to 10 inches in higher elevation areas by the end of the century, with a decrease in snowpack of 9 inches in higher elevation eastern regions by 2090.2 3.

More frequent extreme heat events, with an increase of 7 to 10 heat events per year by the end of the century.2

INL AND DE SERT REGION / RIVERSIDE & IMPERIAL COUNTIE S 1. Reductions in minimum annual precipitation of up to 50% and increases of 40-65% in maximum annual precipitation by the end of the century, illustrating the high degree of variability expected in the coming years.3 2. Increase in the wettest day of the year by up to 30% by the end of the century, increasing the risk of flash flooding.3

S AN DIEGO COUNT Y 1. Increases of 10-30% in the average wettest day every five years by the end of the century, meaning that extreme precipitation events will become more intense.4

3. More intense heat extremes, increases in daily average maximum temperatures of up to 8-14°F and in daily minimum temperatures of up to 4-7°F, and warmer winters with the potential for fewer days of freezing temperatures in some areas.3

2. Overall, greater warming projected for inland areas compared to those near the coast, in part because of the CLCF and the marine layer that shield San Diego’s coastal zones. The average hottest day per year is projected to reach 110-125°F in desert areas and 100-110°F in coastal areas by the end of the century under some greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios.4 3. Increases in minimum temperatures, with generally warmer winters, nighttime temperatures,4, 5, 6 and higher average daily minimum temperatures.4 Additionally, there is potential for more frequent cold extremes, similar to past records.7 4. Exacerbated moisture deficits across much of the region’s landscapes, with intensified droughts, drier conditions and larger water deficits.4 1: Bedsworth et al., 2018. 2: Maizlish et al., 2017. 3: Hopkins et al., 2018. 4: Kalansky et al., 2018. 5: Gershunov and Guirguis, 2012. 6: Jennings et al., 2018. 7: Favre and Gershunov, 2009.

Climate Impacts to Southern California Agriculture Southern California producers face many barriers as part of the ongoing concerns of farming in the region, including high irrigation demand, increasing costs of water and land, variable weather, and constraints on water availability. These stressors ultimately challenge the ability to maximize production while ensuring profitability. In response to these challenges, the region has capitalized on advancing production operations and innovating land management strategies by implementing climate-smart farming practices and testing out new crop choices. While producers across Southern California have always been adapting to changing daily conditions and weather variability, they are also pushing forward bold and creative strategies to address climate change impacts and take advantage of new opportunities. California leads as the top producer in both quantity and diversity of specialty crops across the U.S., with a total of 400 different crops recorded (U.S. Department of Agriculture, n.d.). Specialty crops make up a majority of California’s agricultural value and over half of specialty

crop production nationwide (Kerr et al., 2018). Changes in temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and intensity of extremes, will play a large role in the future of regional and statewide agriculture. These changing climate conditions will be felt across California’s diverse counties, producers, agricultural lands, and crops, and could result in implications for the health and safety of farm workers; crops and yields; agricultural production; pests, weeds, and pollinators; and corresponding economic and financial hardship for farmers across the region. While research to date has primarily focused on understanding climate impacts for major field crops, (Kerr et al., 2018) there is a need to better understand specific impacts to specialty crop production in the U.S. and in California (Kerr et al., 2018). Given that Southern California’s distinct agricultural sector contributes both value and diversity to the state’s specialty crop profile, it is important to consider the distinct challenges and opportunities for the region’s specialty crop production in the years to come. Additionally, there is a need to assess and

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

safeguard impacts to the health and equity of the state’s farming community to ensure the health and safety of farmers and their continued production. Farmers play an important role in the region’s climate resilience, through both mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change. There are many strategies and actions farmers can and are taking to address these impacts, including shifts to more efficient management of water and irrigation, adoption of advanced technologies, and selection of new crop varieties and species (Gowda et al., 2018). Other strategies include a suite of soil management practices, such as cover cropping, reduced tillage, and crop rotation, that can increase soil health and carbon sequestration (California Department of Food and Agriculture, n.d.). This approach to farm management, known as climate-smart agriculture, can help build healthy soils, reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere by sequestering carbon in

the soil, advance water-use efficiency, and improve crop yields, all of which can provide numerous co-benefits for food production, wildlife, plant health, soil structure, carbon sequestration, and water resources (California Department of Food and Agriculture, n.d.).Based on feedback from these efforts it is apparent that Southern California farmers have already started to adopt many of these practices that lay the groundwork for longterm resilience. The strategies and actions that farmers test now can help pave the way for action and catalyze innovation across the region. Continued development of collaborative programs and partnerships, research, and economic incentives tailored to the region’s diversity of agricultural producers and crops is needed to support regional farmers in advancing these opportunities (see Consortium Input and Recommendations on page 21).

Climate-Smart Agricultural Practices

Sustaining perennial crops

Growing cover crops

Composting and mulching

Planting trees and shrubs

No-till or low-till of crops

Restoring riparian areas

Learn more about these practices at ww.cdfa.ca.gov/oefi

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

A Primer on Climate Change Impacts Southern California’s agricultural areas support the cultivation of crops that flourish under the region’s ideal climate, adding significant value and diversity to California’s agricultural profile. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events could exacerbate existing challenges and pose new impacts for the region’s specialty crop producers.

RE SOURCE S FOR PRODUC TION • Lower soil moisture, exacerbated water deficit, increased evaporative demand, and reduced agricultural water availability1, 2, 3 • Loss of perennial croplands due to increasing water prices4 • Shifts in locations suitable for growing and production of certain crops5

CROPS & YIELDS • • • • • •

Altered quality, phenology, harvest and production of many crops6 Changes in yields of some of California’s top perennial crops5 Increased rate of respiration due to warming temperatures, causing decline in crop yields6 Reduction in winter chill hours necessary for the development, quality, and yield of many fruit and nut trees6 Lost cultivation days due to muddy fields Risk of seed germination failures due to extreme events and changing conditions

PE STS, POLLINATOR S, & WEEDS New varieties and expanded range of pests, disease, and weeds6 Earlier seasonal emergence and longer periods of pests due to warmer spring and fall temperatures6 Increased risk of insect outbreaks due to warmer winters that promote fast reproduction of some insects6 Declines in the success of pollination, specifically for annual crops6 Changing temperatures can result in phenological mismatch causing differences in the timing of blooming and life history of pollinators, including native bees • Periods of drought and increased temperatures impact habitat/food resources needed for sustaining pollinator populations • • • • •

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

EQUIT Y & HE ALTH

• Shifts in locations suitable for the production of certain crops5, potentially resulting in costs of relocating production, changing crop varieties, and/or closing business • Increased water deficit, higher water demand and rising costs of water1, 2, 3, 4

• Disparities in farm ownership, access to resources, and land security • Impacts to human health, including exposure to poor air quality, contact with new types and amounts of pesticides as new pests and weeds expand, mental stress from extreme events, and vulnerability to disease, injuries, and illnesses7 • Relocation and displacement of workers due to extreme events and dangerous working conditions

1: Bedsworth et al., 2018. 2: Kalansky et al., 2018. 3: Hopkins et al., 2018. 4: Batra, 2018. 5: Lobell et al., 2006. 6: Pathak et al., 2018. 7: Levy and Roeflofs, 2019.

TOP PERENNIAL SPECIALT Y CROPS (FRUIT & NUTS) Almonds

• Almond yields could potentially benefit from warmer springs and summers (Lobell and Field, 2011)

• Warmer January/February temperatures could shorten the duration of blooming, impacting pollination and resulting in slight yield declines of 10% by 2030 (Lobell and Field, 2011)

• Severe storms could damage crops and reduce yields, especially during flowering stages, in addition to causing high winds that lead to widespread lodging of trees (Campbell, 2006; USDA, 2016)

Avocados

Oranges

• Sensitive to warmer August temperatures the year prior to harvest, with negative impacts for avocado yield the following year (Lobell et al., 2007; Kalanksy et al., 2018)

• High temperatures can cause “scorching” of the blossoms (Pessarakli, 2001)

• Projections show a substantial reduction in areas that exhibit high yields of avocados under 7.2°F warming, with potential for up to a 45% reduction in avocado yields statewide by 2060 (Lobell et al., 2006; USDA, 2016) • Areas suitable for future production have minimal overlap with current avocado production, with projections showing shifts from coastal/inland Southern California to coastal Central California (Lobell et al., 2006; USDA, 2016) • Extreme heat/ heat waves could suppress persea mite populations populations that are key pests for California-grown avocados (Morse et al., 2016)

• Warm extreme precipitation storms could increase occurrence of fungal disease in almonds (Campbell, 2006; USDA, 2016)

• Potential for reduced yields when using deficit irrigation during drought periods (Fulton et al., 2014; USDA, 2016)

• Declines in seasonal fog in the Central Valley could contribute to insufficient winter chill hours necessary for development and production of the region's fruit and nut trees (Yang, 2014)

COMBINED IMPACTS: • Projections show a decline in counties able to produce almonds yields near state average production levels, with minimal overlap between future and current areas of production (Lobell et al., 2006) • Potential effects from winter fog loss, but projected future impacts are unknown (Baldocchi and Waller, 2014; Kerr et al., 2017)

• Warmer winter minimum temperatures predicted under climate change could reduce the risk of frost damage (Lobell et al., 2006; Kerr et al., 2017)

• Challenges associated with limited water availability and drought, with specific sensitivities to increased salinity and to low precipitation amounts in October during the year of harvest that are projected under climate change (USDA, 2016; Kalansky et al., 2018)

• Warmer winter minimum temperatures could reduce the risk of frost damage (Kerr et al., 2017) • Low diurnal temperature variation during autumn fruit development could negatively impact fruit color (Chambers et al., 2015)

• Sudden cold snaps can cause frost damage to citrus (Geisel and Unruh, 2003; Kerr et al., 2017)

• Extreme precipitation and flooding events, projected to increase in frequency and intensity, can delay harvesting particularly along Central/Southern CA coasts (Pathak et al., 2018; Kalansky et al., 2018)

• Wildfires can result in significant losses in citrus crops (Faber, 2018), that take years to establish

COMBINED IMPACTS: • Moderate to substantial yield declines by the end of the century (Lobell et al., 2006)

• Wind, including Santa Ana events, can cause increases in plant water use for trees such as avocados (California Avocado Commission, 2019)

• Projections show a substantial reduction in areas that exhibit high yields of oranges (Lobell et al., 2006)

• Wildfires can result in significant losses to avocado crops (Faber, 2018), that take years to establish

• Areas suitable for future production have minimal overlap with current orange production, and the majority of these areas have challenging circumstances that limit agricultural opportunities (Lobell et al., 2006)

CLIMATE IMPAC TS KE Y Higher Temperatures:

Warmer Cool Periods:

Higher temperatures; increased frequency and intensity of heat events

Warmer minimum, winter, & nighttime temperatures; reduced chill hours

Frost Events: Cold outbreaks and frost events

Low Precipitation: More frequent and intense droughts

Table Grapes

Walnuts

Wine Grapes

Cherries

• Moderate to substantial yield declines by the end of the century under future climate scenarios (Lobell and Field, 2011)

• Potential for improved yields due to warmer summer temperatures (Lobell and Field, 2011)

• Overall median yield reductions of 10% for the state by the end of the century (Nicholas et al., 2011)

• Overall, cherries will likely be the most negatively impacted of the state’s top 20 perennial crops due to warming conditions in the upcoming decades (Lobell and Field, 2011)

• Potential negative impacts from projected reduction in precipitation during fall months, as table grape yields have been shown to increase with October rains the year prior to harvest (Lobell et al., 2006; Nicholas et al., 2011)

• Potential for reduced yields due to warming winter and minimum temperatures that impact the number of chill hours essential for development (Lobell and Field, 2011; Lobell et al., 2006; UCD, 2017; Kerr et al., 2017)

COMBINED IMPACTS: COMBINED IMPACTS: • Projections show a substantial reduction in areas that exhibit high yields of table grapes (Lobell et al., 2006)

• Regions with currently optimal wine growing conditions will likely shift to climate conditions difficult for growing and producing high-quality wine (Nicholas et al., 2011) and will likely shift northwards, while favoring different grape varieties compared to historical conditions (Lobell and Field, 2011) • Changes in timing of ripening and harvest due to warmer temperatures (Cahill et al., 2007) • Impacts to sugar flow, vine pathology, and grape composition due to extreme heat, with implications for wine and grape quality (Lobell and Field, 2011; Nicholas et al., 2011; Orduña, 2010)

• Moderate to substantial yield declines by the end of the century under future climate scenarios (Lobell et al., 2007) • Projections show a substantial reduction in areas that exhibit high yields of walnuts (Lobell et al., 2006) • Areas suitable for future production have minimal overlap with current production, and the majority of these areas have challenging circumstances that limit agricultural opportunities (Lobell et al., 2006)

• Potential reduction in wine grape yields likely with warmer winters buffered with potential for improved yields with warmer summers (Lobell and Field, 2011)

• Wine grape harvest season, overlapping with wildfire season, could be especially affected by wildfire with risks for compromised and/or ruined wine (Mobley, 2019)

• Projections for warmer winter and fall temperatures and reduced number of chill hours could result in harmful impacts for cherries that require a certain number of accumulated chill hours during February - November (Lobell and Field, 2011)

• Declines in seasonal fog in the Central Valley could contribute to insufficient winter chill hours necessary for development and production of the region's fruit and nut trees (Yang, 2014)

CLIMATE IMPAC TS KE Y High Precipitation: More variable and extreme precipitation; flooding

Wildfire: Increased wildfire risk

Wind: Direct physical damage and indirect impacts to conditions

Fog: Buffering capabilities along the coast

COMBINED IMPACTS: The overall effect of one or more climate impacts on a crop

OTHER FRUIT & NUT CROPS Strawberries

Melons

Pistachios

• High temperatures and heat extremes could shorten growing cycles (Lobell and Field, 2011)

• Warming temperatures could allow for very heat-tolerant crops, such as melons, to expand production to new areas (Jackson et al., 2011)

• Potential negative impacts to pistachios and production levels with reduced number of chill hours that are critical for pistachio production (Lobell et al. 2007 ; Pathak et al., 2018)

• Overall, California’s strawberry production could decrease with climate change, projections showing a decrease of 10% by 2050 (Lobell and Field, 2011) to 43% by 2070 with greater effects in southern regions of the state (Deschenes and Kolstad, 2011) (Lobell and Field, 2011)

Tomatoes

• Harmful consequences from heat waves and/ or high heat during pollination and fruit set (Ozores-Hampton et al., 2012)

COMBINED IMPACTS:

• Potential increases in fungal pathogens, pests, and diseases due to higher temperatures that promote spreading of these stressors (Lobell and Field, 2011). Warm/dry conditions could promote mite infestations, and warmer temperatures overall could promote powdery mildew (USDA, 2016)

• Declines in seasonal fog in the Central Valley could contribute to insufficient winter chill hours necessary for development and production of the region's fruit and nut trees (Yang, 2014)

• Potential for increased tomato acreage by 2050 due to changed climate conditions (Jackson et al., 2012)

• Warmer winters could likely reduce strawberry yields, but the impact may be buffered with warmer summers that could improve yields (Lobell and Field, 2011)

• Extreme precipitation and flooding, which are projected to become more frequent and intense, could cause late harvesting of strawberries along the Central and Southern California coasts (Pathak et al., 2018)

• Potential declines in summertime coastal fog could directly influence crop water use efficiency, and as a result, cause greater demand for groundwater on coastal farms (Baguskas et al., 2018)

CLIMATE IMPAC TS KE Y Higher Temperatures:

Warmer Cool Periods:

Higher temperatures; increased frequency and intensity of heat events

Warmer minimum, winter, & nighttime temperatures; reduced chill hours

Frost Events: Cold outbreaks and frost events

Low Precipitation: More frequent and intense droughts

VEGE TABLE CROPS

NUR SER Y CROPS

Broccoli

Carrots

Lettuce

Flowers

Hemp

• Potential for increases in risk of disease and insect damage due to higher soil temperatures that foster their growth (Chambers et al., 2015)

• Sensitive to extreme heat with potentially harmful impacts (USDA, 2016)

• High temperatures and heat events can impact the quality of lettuce, causing bitterness, bolting and tipburn, with implications for its commercial value (Lobell et al., 2007; Deschenes and Kolstad, 2011; Jackson et al., 2012; Kerr et al., 2017)

• Temperature can affect many aspects of production, including plant quality, germination, pest management, and scheduling (University of Massachusetts Amherst Center for Agriculture, Food, and the Environment, 2017)

• Hemp requires adequate precipitation and soil moisture throughout the growing period (Baxter and Scheifele, 2000) (Canadian Hemp Trade Alliance, n.d.), thus changes in precipitation patterns and quantity could impact growing conditions

• Sensitivity to increased frequency of spring heat waves (USDA, 2016), with impacts to crop quality under prolonged high temperatures (Koike et al., 2009)

• Potential benefits from warmer winters (USDA, 2016)

• Sensitive to reduced water quality and water quantity (USDA, 2016) • Warmer winter temperatures, projected under climate change, in addition to northward range expansion, could increase the state’s broccoli production of up to 39% by 2070 (Deschenes and Kolstad, 2011)

• Potential increases of up to 7.8% in the state’s lettuce yields by the end of the century in part due to longer growing seasons (Deschenes and Kolstad, 2011)

• Potential impacts from reduced water quality and water quantity (USDA, 2016; Chambers et al., 2015)

COMBINED IMPACTS: • No clear climate-related projections and/or trends for lettuce production (Lobell et al., 2007)

• Potential impacts from reduced water quality and water quantity (USDA, 2016; Chambers et al., 2015)

• Water availability, cost, quality, and regulations are important factors for nurseries (Newman, 2014), and future changes in these water resources could result in impacts for nursery production

COMBINED IMPACTS: • Risk of expanded ranges and new types of pests, disease, and weeds could impact nursery production

• Drought during flowering and seed set stages can reduce seed set and result in poorly developed grain heads (Baxter and Scheifele, 2000)

• Heavy precipitation can be detrimental for crop establishment, specifically after seeding and during early stages of development (Canadian Hemp Trade Alliance, n.d.) • Excessive rainfall and field saturation can cause a crop to stall, hindering its ability to outcompete weeds (Canadian Hemp Trade Alliance, n.d.)

NEED FOR RESEARCH:

Nursery and cut flower products are an important component of southern California's agricultural sector. Additional research is needed to understand what climate change could mean for the nursery industry, while helping inform opportunities for innovation, resource efficiency, and best management practices that ensure production flourishes in the future.

CLIMATE IMPAC TS KE Y High Precipitation: More variable and extreme precipitation; flooding

Wildfire: Increased wildfire risk

Wind: Dry Santa Ana winds and strong wind events

Fog: Changes in patterns of fog and low cloud cover

COMBINED IMPACTS: The overall effect of one or more climate impacts on a crop

2020 Consortium Overview & Outreach Throughout the timespan of the 2020 Consortium, the nation entered into a global health crisis in response to the rapid spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus). The global pandemic has resulted in significant impacts for local and global food systems, with ripple effects for farms across the nation that face changes in food distribution systems, market demand, health and safety protocols, and job and workforce security. In response to these circumstances, California farmers have risen to the challenge and responded to this pandemic with innovative strategies, new business models, and diversified means of food distribution (Brennan and Kragen, 2020). As evidenced by COVID-19, there is a need for additional resources, funding and technical assistance that are equitable and accessible to help farmers adapt in order to maintain production, viability, and income throughout times of emergency and crisis. It has become increasingly clear that producers play a pivotal role, especially during times of crisis, in maintaining community resilience and viability by ensuring that there is fresh food available and accessible for all people. While the region’s farmers continue to face challenges in meeting demand for communities in crisis, these same challenges have, and continue to, drive creativity and innovation in the region’s food system. The difficult circumstances of COVID-19 have demonstrated the ability of the region’s farmers to adapt and find solutions in times of uncertainty. In future years, farmers and communities could be faced with more frequent extreme conditions under a changing climate, and as a result, times of uncertainty and crisis that follow. The actions taken in response to the global health crisis of COVID-19 showcases the unwavering commitment of farmers in supporting our communities, and is foretelling of the critical role the local food system plays in building a more resilient region and community.

GOAL OF 2020 CLIMATE CONSORTIUM The goal of the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops, convened in partnership by CDFA and the Climate Science Alliance, is to bring together the input of diverse stakeholders across Southern California’s agricultural sector to identify the challenges, opportunities, and strategies for building climate resilience.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

The 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops is part of a larger vision to elevate the voices and unique qualities of Southern California agriculture, showcase the importance of agriculture for our communities, and support the critical role farmers play as part of the region’s climate change solutions. As part of this ongoing vision, various platforms were used to identify the priority concerns, recommendations, and opportunities of Southern California specialty crop representatives. As a region at the forefront of ensuring agricultural resilience and advancing climate change solutions, there were several ongoing regional efforts, specifically the 2019 Carbon Sink Farming Convergence hosted by Solidarity Farm, and the San Diego Food Systems Alliance 2030 Food Vision efforts and COVID-19 Issue Brief that helped lay the groundwork for building robust input on the future of farming in the area. Input from Southern California agricultural representatives that participated in the Convergence event is included as part of the feedback in this document. The 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops expanded off of these initial conversations, developing targeted strategies to connect with other regional efforts and collect input from both small and large scale producers to help advance ideas and recommendations for this document.

Through collaborative convenings, facilitated discussion sessions, outreach campaigns, case study projects and stories, one-on-one dialogues, online and mail-in surveys, and regional partner networks, the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops feedback and participation reflects a diverse group of growers, researchers, technical assistance experts, policy-makers, and agricultural advocates throughout Southern California, including San Diego, Riverside, Imperial and Kern counties. Together, these outreach efforts reached a total of approximately 160 entities across the greater Southern California region, in which approximately one-third participated (see page 20). An important form of outreach included collaborating with new and existing partners and leveraging these partner networks, such as the University of California Cooperative Extension, Solidarity Farm, San Diego Food Systems Alliance and San Diego County Farm Bureau, to build off of ongoing efforts, disseminate information on the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops, and gather input from a variety of producers connected with these key entities. Given the challenging circumstances of COVID-19 amidst the project, in-person workshops with representatives in the South San Joaquin Valley was not possible. In response, several methods of virtual outreach

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Inpu t f rom the 2020 Consor tium for Special t y Crops Collaborative convenings Facilitation of input sessions Outreach campaigns Case study projects and stories One-on-one dialogues Regional partner networks

and leveraged partnerships were used to gather input. Despite these efforts, the minimal input from the South San Joaquin region reflects these circumstances and the stress put on farmers to maintain the local food system during this crisis. Expanding off of these collaborative efforts across the region’s food system, the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops hosted an in-person convening, on February 27, 2020 at the San Diego County Farm Bureau. The convening brought together 40 individuals, including producers, researchers, technical assistance advisors, and agricultural representatives from largely San Diego County and surrounding areas. Throughout the convening, participants discussed regional climate variability, climate drivers, and impacts with researchers, learned from technical assistance advisors about opportunities, resources, and technical tools available for producers, and shared the strategies they are using on-the-ground to buffer the impacts of extreme weather. The majority of the convening focused on facilitated discussion and listening sessions that allowed for participants to share their stories, ideas, and recommendations to help inform future decision-making for the region.

In addition to these efforts, the Climate Science Alliance, with the support of CDFA, developed a number of supplemental educational materials and community resources as part of the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops. These resources include a Climate Cookbook and a Climate Science and Food Systems Traveling Trunk, highlighting regional agriculture as a climate solution. These resources were disseminated to local communities and partners, including the distribution of over 500 cookbooks to communities with food bank assistance, virtual trainings of over 40 educators, distribution of the Traveling Trunk to over six local partner organizations, and integration and use of materials by local partner farms, including Coastal Roots Farm and Solidarity Farm, informing their educational and climate programs. Access these resources at: https://www.climatesciencealliance.org/resilient-roots-resources

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Consortium Participation

The 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops yielded feedback from a diverse group of over 50 individuals who provided input and recommendations via in-person convenings and discussion sessions. Due to limitations for in-person meetings because of the COVID 19 pandemic we also utilized alternative means of communications such as online/mail surveys, one-on-one phone calls, and case study questionnaires to seek additional input and feedback for the report. The case studies in particular were the result of multiple and iterative one-on-one conversations with producers to more deeply explore producers’ perceptions of climate change and actions they are taking to address challenges and adapt for the future. Case study participants represented varying specialties within local agricultural production including coffee, olive oil, orchard crops, producer led collaborative organizations, specialty produce from small and large scale production, and a profile on honeybees and pollinators from a local researcher. We also spoke with producers from cut flowers and nursery operations and vintners however, their case studies were not completed at the time this report was finalized. The case studies can be found in Appendix I and a compilation of all input can be found in Appendix II.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Roles PRODUCERS

30%

Farmers/Producers make up 30% of consortium participation, representing varying farming operations, including a range of production sizes, crop types, and length of time as a farmer and/or farm owner. A majority of farmer/producer participants have been involved in their farm for fewer than 10 years (70%), with some participants (30%) reaching involvement between 24 to 70 years. While many of the farmer/producer participants represent farming operations of relatively smaller-scale production under 10 acres, production size varied to include larger-scale operations of up to 80 acres. Farming operations include both organic and conventional farming methods. Of the farmer/producer participants, approximately 50% are involved in production on 1-5 acres of land, 29% on 6-10 acres, and 21% on 70-80 acres of land. Participants represent the production of specialty crops and row crops, including specializations in vegetable and vine crops, subtropical orchards and fruit trees (including avocados, citrus, apples, pears, and peaches), hemp, herbs and flowers, wine grapes, and specializations in animal grazing of small-livestock, as well as the nursery industry, particularly California native plants.

REPRE SENTATIVE S Representatives represent 30% of consortium participation. These individuals represent organizations of education, outreach, policy, and advocacy, related to agriculture, climate, and food systems. Participant specializations include: advocacy; non-profit; education and outreach; conservationists; and policy-makers.

TECHNICAL A SSISTANCE ( TA) 30%

21%

Technical assistance participants represent 21% of consortium participation. Expertise varies across focuses and agricultural areas of California. In general, technical participants represent the Southern California counties of San Diego (including the Tijuana River Watershed), and Riverside, in addition to Sacramento County. These representatives encompass a large group of individuals of diverse backgrounds and expertise, specializing in climate-related focuses (e.g. implementation of climate-smart agriculture and healthy soil farming practices); Monitoring and management (e.g. pest and weed management); Crop-specific advising (e.g. vegetable, subtropical, vine and tree crops); and Program Support (e.g. outreach and support for grants). Specific roles of participants include Agricultural Outreach and Community Specialists; UC Cooperative Extension Advisors and Community Education Specialists in Climate-Smart Agriculture; Crop Advisors (Subtropical, Vegetable, Vine, and Tree Crops), Integrated Pest/Weed Management; Program Implementation in Climate-Smart Agriculture, and Soil Health Advisors.

RE SE ARCH

19%

Research participants constitute 19% of consortium participation, primarily representing San Diego and Riverside Counties, but also include participants from the counties of Los Angeles and Merced. Research specializations include climate and agriculture adaptation; regional climate variability and change; honey bee health; crop water-use; food safety microbiologist; greenhouse gas emissions and water efficiency; carbon sequestration and climate-smart agriculture; and soils and water.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Outreach and Participation OUTRE ACH

Total # of individuals contac ted through ou treach

Producers

Representatives / TA / Research

TOTAL

158

PARTICIPATION REPRE SENTATION Producers 17%

Representatives 76%

Technical A ssistance ( TA )

KEY: Individuals contacted through outreach

39%

Research Individuals who participated

56%

T YPE OF PARTICIPATION

Percent (%) of total par ticipation

In-Person

50%

Online and/or Mail Survey

12%

Partnership / Outreach

27%

Case Study Questionnaire

12%

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Consortium Input & Recommendations

The 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops utilized in-person feedback forms with 14 unique prompts/ questions, online and mail surveys of 12 unique prompts/questions, and case study questionnaires of 6 questions to gather participant responses and generate a robust list of input and recommendations. Together, 40 in-person consortium workshop participants, 7 case study participants, and 6 online and mail survey respondents of the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops provided a total of approximately 715 points of input. This robust list of input provides a comprehensive snapshot of the region’s agricultural sector now, and the opportunities moving forward. The following sections summarize this input gathered throughout the span of these efforts. Input is thematically summarized in terms of the observed and projected impacts and challenges of climate change, the existing on-the-ground actions, strategies and solutions of the region’s producers, and the identified opportunities and needs for resources, research, and support. Information from all of these inputs are summarized below, however, detailed input from all sources can be found in Appendix II.

Climate Impacts to Producers Farming is inherently a high-risk business which is becoming riskier as climate change impacts unfold. It is clear that producers have always dealt with uncertainty and a general level of unpredictability in weather, but there are growing concerns around the impacts of climate change on the viability of food production. The feedback provided showcases the many impacts that producers experience now and their concerns for the future. When asked what climate related changes or impacts producers were experiencing or observing, their response was overwhelmingly that they were seeing and experiencing all of the listed climate change drivers, including extreme weather events and variability, drought, temperature changes, precipitation variability, and wildfire. Producers also identified Santa Ana winds and strong wind events as an additional extreme weather event that we had not listed in our original questions. In summary, respondents identified extreme weather events as becoming more

frequent and accompanied by greater unpredictability of seasons and within season shifts and extremes, making the business models of many farms less certain. Producers feel there is less water availability and that they are continually being pushed into being more efficient with resources and actions because of the unpredictability of extreme events and longer term climate change related trends. This makes it difficult to carry out crop planning and bounce back when crops are lost from flooding or early frost. In addition, producers are juggling changes in energy and water use and needing to drill deeper for water and invest in the equipment and labor for installing and maintaining new forms of irrigation. Producers also noted an increase in weed pressure as the weeds seem to adapt faster to changing climate conditions than the crops. Therefore, the timing and efficacy of treatment is more difficult and often more costly.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Weather Variability

Producers have observed and experienced changes in weather patterns and variability on their land now, with more frequent and intense extreme heat, wind, and precipitation events. Producers felt that changing weather patterns make crop cycles unpredictable and drought juxtaposed with runoff from large storms seems more extreme. One vintner noted that changes in weather patterns affected grape quality resulting in both challenges and opportunities for local vineyards. In addition, wind came up as a concern related to variability, including reports that Santa Ana winds are stripping branches of leaves and fruit and destroying fruit and bloom. In addition, wind events coincide with a drop in moisture levels that can destroy bloom cycle. One producer noted that especially strong winds this year hurt young trees. This is one area in particular that could use additional research and insight.

CLIMATE IMPACT :

Farming here is hard. One extreme weather event can erase years of hard work... We get every kind of extreme weather event - high winds, extreme heat, freezing, cold, and drought. July 2018 had very extreme heat waves which devastated avocado crops and vegetable gardens. Warmer winter and spring months result in earlier blooms and other phenological changes.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

CLIMATE IMPACT :

Drought

Drought is one of the major climate-related changes producers are experiencing on their land, noting hotter and more volatile drought conditions. Feedback from producers indicates that the greatest challenges associated with drought are increases in the cost of water, associated regulations, and a decrease in the availability and quality of that water, impacting soil health and the viability of seeds and crops. Overall, there is more pressure to be efficient and a strong demand on how to compete to meet agricultural water needs when many of these farms are embedded in a competing and highly urbanized landscape. Extreme droughts impact the seasonal shift in crops, with longer and drier fall seasons. These longer dry seasons also affect the varieties and timing of vegetables that can be grown. Producers are seeing more wilting associated with heat and a decrease in soil microbiology. Extended periods of dryness are causing lowered water tables and the depletion of aquifers. These conditions cause many producers to dig more and deeper wells in order to access water. Additionally, less water availability results in higher soil salinity that then requires management. There are costs associated with buying and cleaning water of higher salinity in irrigation water, not to mention that some areas, such as Imperial County, have highly saline and unusable groundwater, forcing identification of other sources.

the support of incentives and funding associated with drought relief. Nurseries in the region note that changes in climate could potentially result in opportunities for production, such as changing species distribution ranges that could benefit their production of solely California native plants. Additionally, nurseries have observed that due to increased droughts in the region, customers are more inclined to plant locally adapted California native plants, which could also benefit their native plant production. Some producers have seen a decrease in weeds and pests with less fruit rot fungus. Because of access to crop insurance, many producers have been able to manage for now, but the long-term is questionable.

Some producers have found a silver lining and have been able to use recent prolonged droughts as opportunities to transition to more water efficient systems with

or in swimming pools.

Longer dry seasons will affect varieties of vegetables we grow and when. Drought and increased temperatures are likely the biggest climate change drivers for bees. Bees need water. Without it there can be massive impacts to colonies. When water is scarce, bees can seek it in gardens, irrigation,

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Precipitation & Water Resources

Producers note shifts in the timing of rainfall, decreases in the overall amount of precipitation, and increases in the intensity of events when they do occur. Changing weather patterns make crop cycles unpredictable. Drought and runoff from big storms lead to concerns over water availability and a general lack of water. These unpredictable cycles, coupled with competition from urban development, make it difficult, if not impossible, when producers must deal with changes to allocations, price, and quality of water. This is further exacerbated by direct impacts associated with flooding and inability to retain water which speaks to the need for planning for extremes. While these extreme precipitation events offer opportunities to replenish groundwater resources, provide a reduction in the water bill, and flush salt from soil, they can also result in direct crop loss, soil contamination, and physical damage impacting production on multiple levels. Years of extreme precipitation events not only impact crops and cropland directly, but also cause erosion on surrounding areas of some properties, damaging key infrastructure such as pathways and roads, that make it difficult to continue operations. Heavy precipitation events can also increase mildew and fungus problems depending on the time of year and temperatures that follow the event. In addition, extreme precipitation and trends towards shorter, more extreme wet seasons make it difficult to manage erosion, disease and pest control, and water capture. Erosion is a major concern that is exacerbated by extreme precipitation

events, including direct impacts to roads and infrastructure and indirect impacts including the loss of nutrients. Pollution that is carried as runoff into fields and waterways can contaminate wells and result in downstream pollution for others in the community.

CLIMATE IMPACT :

Irregular and variable weather makes it hard to plan, specifically for the crops we plant. Water is a limiting factor and will continue as a stressor on our production. Extreme precipitation makes it difficult to manage erosion, control disease and pests, and implement water capture with a shorter, more extreme wet season. Years of extreme precipitation have caused substantial erosion on the edges of our property, large oaks on-site to fall, and damage to dirt paths and gravel roads...a sink hole on the main road to our nursery forced us to patially close for many months and drive an extra hour to work.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Temperature

Producers note that they are experiencing changing temperatures now, with more extreme maximum temperatures, reduced chill hours, and intensified heat waves that have impacted their crops and production in many ways. Changes to temperature, including warming temperatures, have some benefit including fewer frost days with less damage to existing crops and the potential for new crops that previously flourished in more Southern climates. However, overall there are more concerns than benefits based on producers’ feedback. All producer participants identified concerns with a warming climate which makes dry spells more difficult for natural and cultivated systems. Specifically, heat stress to crops often leads to crop loss. One producer shared their experience with high maximum temperatures that reached 123°, drying vegetation and wiping out the entire year’s work. In addition, there are growing concerns over shifts in the growing season along with geographic changes for the suitability of where certain crops can grow now and in the future. Producers note that they are observing earlier bud break which is especially concerning when combined with frost. Low temperatures, in combination with too much precipitation, results in damage for tree flowers, meaning that the fruit won’t set. In the short term, drastic temperature changes are mostly impacting crops in the winter and spring when many crops, such as brassicas and cut greens, are sensitive to drastic increases in temperature. New pests and increased weed pressure were reported by several producers who

are concerned with temperature driven changes in pest life cycles. Biological controls that are a natural approach to pest management, are sensitive to extremes, causing these control systems to go out of sync. One producer noted a significant increase in plant pests and disease on their family farm over the last 5-10 years that they attribute to climate-related causes. These changes in timing and feasibility impact production including day to day logistics of planting preparation, labor needs, and marketability. Finding skilled labor on short notice due to farming needs and sudden changes in temperature and weather raise concerns for the health of farmworkers.

CLIMATE IMPACT :

Temperatures reached 123°, turning leaves into potato chips and wiping out our year’s work. On my family farm they have seen a significant increase in plant pest and diseases in the last 5-10 years that they feel are climate-related and cause much concern for the future.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Wildfire

With a history of devastating wildfires, especially in recent years, Southern California producers have faced impacts to their land, crops and production, and farm workers. Fire poses both direct and indirect challenges to producers in Southern California. The direct impacts of fire include losses in property and equipment, as well as crop losses with significant impacts particularly for orchards and vineyards that take years to establish. Fire also has indirect impacts on workers, including displacement and the inability to work because of air quality. These lost workdays due to displacement and poor air quality make it more difficult to find temporary labor when it’s needed. Wildfires can also result in power outages that can then hinder the ability to water crops. In addition, producers are struggling with the ability to establish insurance for property and equipment, not to mention coverage for the direct loss of revenue if producers are not able to salvage crops or start over in time to meet market demand. Having insurance during an

emergency can be a distinguishing factor for whether a producer can stay in business after catastrophe. Several producers note an increase in insurance premiums (of up to a 150% increase) and/or the complete loss of existing fire insurance and the ability to be insured at all.

CLIMATE IMPACT :

We operate in the ‘fringe’ at the boundary of urban and rural areas. It’s hard to get insurance. We are having our farm/home insurance canceled because of fire danger. If we were not living on a farm - in a boundary area - we would be able to insure our house.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Producer Challenges In light of these observed climatic changes and future projections indicating continued change, the region’s producers could face many challenges and opportunities in both the short- and long-term. The challenges and opportunities identified by the region’s agricultural producers fell into three main categories including the need for funding and resources, economic viability, and climate data in planning tools. In the short term, when faced with ongoing extreme events, it is challenging for producers to manage crop productivity, soil health, pest and weed control, and complete seasonal crop planning, let alone test and trial resilience strategies. Producers identified that there is a lack of resources, funding, and programs to assist farmers in implementing these climate adaptation projects and resilience strategies. There is also a lack of local micro-climate data, monitoring, and planning tools to help inform effective and efficient implementation. It is clear that getting enough strategies in place now to address these challenges is necessary to ensure resilience in the long term, but it will require additional support to streamline opportunities for producers.

In the long term, producers are worried that there will be too many risks to be commercially viable. A lot of growers will sell their land and get out of the industry, while others will continue their search for profitable commodities to grow. Urban sprawl, regulations, increased cost of water and decreased water availability will continue to escalate. Long-term crop planning may be difficult when certain crops may become less viable to grow in our area, thus necessitating producers to pursue more adaptable varieties of crops, yet these new varieties will require additional technical support, research, and pathways of distribution. Critical-distribution channels and market demands that make production commercially viable are especially worrisome if market demands do not align with the changing climate. Some producers are considering evolving to high tunnel and greenhouse growing or changing locations due to risk of seasonal flooding. Bottom line, there is a need to support producers to take on larger transformational changes to be viable in the longer term. Producers need to be compensated and rewarded for taking on long-term commitments and testing and implementing strategies, based on data, planning tools and implementable actions that are linked to regionally-specific and crop-specific information.

" In the long term, the region may no longer be viable for some of our current key crops, such as avocados and wine.

" 2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

CHALLENGE :

Funding & Resources

Difficult to get enough, and a diversity of, resilience strategies in place Lack of resources and supplemental funding for adaptation projects and resilience strategies Not enough education and outreach to raise awareness about the value of local growers and the challenges they face Limited resources and capacity for one-on-one technical assistance, especially during crisis Minimal labor rights, low wages, and a lack of safety nets make it difficult for farm workers to maintain livelihood during emergencies/crisis Lack of infrastructure to connect with other farmers and share resources to ensure food distribution and supply during emergencies and crisis

CHALLENGE :

Economic Viability

New varieties need new, commercially viable distribution channels Inability to grow after flooding occurs, causing economic losses and pest pressures Higher water prices as a result of less water Water restrictions due to high use Destruction of farm equipment and infrastructure due to fire

CHALLENGE :

Climate Data & Planning

Unpredictable crop planning Difficult to manage crops and land during extreme events and droughts Lack of regionally-specific research and local micro-climate agricultural production data Need for more sustainable methods for large-scale pollination of crops Methods for testing groundwater recharge Relocation due to seasonal flooding and extreme events

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Strategies & Solutions in Action It is clear that Southern California producers are already pursuing innovative and creative solutions to deal with extreme weather and address the long-term impacts of a changing climate. Many have embraced and are using climate-smart practices while also investing in new innovative techniques and technology to help them minimize risks and increase productions on their specific landscape. There is a strong emphasis on practices that regenerate and enhance the health and development of plants and soils. Additionally, producers are capitalizing on strategies and systems to improve efficiency of water resources as costs increase and supply is limited. New technologies and innovations center on advancing applicable research, enhancing efficiency, and paving the way for alternative varieties and resources, while shifts in marketing and education target informing customers on the importance of certain crops and growing methods.

" We focus heavily on soil quality, increasing organic matter in our soil and wildlife habitat since we are in an urban setting. We emphasize the diversity of our crops, growing multiple different crops throughout all seasons. Through our on-site composting systems, we are able to divert waste while also building the health of our soils and crops. I practice no-till regenerative agriculture using locally made compost as the primary soil amendment. We planted hundreds of native trees and flowering bushes to increase beneficial insect biodiversity. Almost every practice we have on the farm is to mitigate the shifts in climate. This starts with the crops we plant: the new trees we plant in the orchard and the types of coffee and squash that we grow. We grow pepper trees, passion fruit and Inga trees for wind management. We choose our new avocado trees for salinity management, phytophthora control and temperature extremes. We are changing our marketing/PR and educational resources to educate customers about the importance and adaptability of California native plants for drought and temperature changes.

" 2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

PRODUCER INPUT : The Need for New Technology & Innovation Need more efficient, flexible, and computerized irrigation systems Would like to see more on-farm research to test new varieties of crops and climatesmart strategies Need advancements in natural fertilizers Would like to see more strategies for improving salinity and water quality issues

PRODUCER INPUT :

Opportunities to Partner on Outreach

Producers want to see more focus on consumer education campaigns that focus on climate-smart practices and the importance of local food to inform consumer choice and support shifts producers are taking towards more sustained practices Nurseries are interested in joint marketing, PR, and educational resources to educate consumers on the importance of adaptable California native plants for drought and other changes in climate extremes

CLIMATE-SMART PRACTICES IN ACTION : Healthy soil practices such as cover cropping, reduced tillage, compost and bio-char amendments, and silvopasture On-site computer monitoring including water sensor technology Water-efficient practices with increase water retention of soils through soil management Adapted cropping systems and native/locally adapted, valuable, and climate-suitable crop choices Micronutrients/amendments and other supplements to manage extreme events and increase water and nutrient retention Agroforestry and multi-layered systems Reduced and/or eliminated chemical inputs Windbreak and shade covers for crop protection Transition to perennial crops that can sequester carbon for a longer period of time More strategic planning on when and what nursery products to grow

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Recommendations for New Resources & Additional Support Producers are taking actions now on-the-ground to address the challenges of climate change, while finding ways to pursue and advance these strategies in the future. However, ongoing climatic changes will pose new and exacerbated challenges in the short and long term, requiring the continued development of resources, incentives, and tools that reduce barriers and streamline opportunities. Input highlights several needs and areas of opportunity to help support producers in advancing existing and new strategies, including opportunities for on-farm practices, planning, policy, and funding, education and outreach, and technology and innovation.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR :

On-Farm Practices

Producers identified a need for further implementation and advancement of several key practices prioritized based on viability, interest, effectiveness, and relevance for the region. These practices include compost and bio-char application, cover cropping, animal grazing and rotation, minimal tillage, regenerative agriculture, cultivar selection, soil development, and water efficiency systems. While many of these practices are considered eligible for financial incentives, it is noted that these approaches require additional support and program

advancements that reflect the true cost of practices and include longer periods of implementation and evaluation to gauge best practices. Both State and Federal entities offer on-going technical assistance but producers expressed that more technical assistance was needed including direct connections with researchers. In addition, the transition of crops and full integration of many of these practices is on a much longer time scale that does not always match up to the life of a grant or funding cycle and require flexibility in timelines for evaluation.

Innovative approaches require additional program advancements that reflect the true cost of practices and include longer periods of implementation and evaluation to gauge best practices

Small agricultural businesses with value-driven missions that include prioritization of climate beneficial practices need economic support to start up. Large agricultural businesses need incentivization to pivot practices toward climate beneficial production.

" 2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR : Input from researchers, technical assistance experts, and producers demonstrates many opportunities for planning, program development, and funding to cultivate new pathways of support. Proposed funding incentives and programs identified include advancements in crop insurance coverage that cover extreme events and transitions to new crops. Producers advocate that funding initiatives need to offer up-front payments to compensate and recognize farmers for implementing practices, specifically those that are aimed at mitigating climate change. There is strong support for more demonstration

Planning, Policy & Funding projects in the region to test strategies and identify gaps in implementation that can inform future efforts. There is also a need for long-term planning on both the regional and farm level that account for continued agricultural production. For the region, it is recommended that existing agricultural land be leveraged and preserved as a buffer zone in future land use planning. At the farm level, long-term strategic farm planning and management is needed for farmers to adapt their operations with changing climatic conditions.

Up front payments that compensate farmers for implementing climate-smart practices Develop crop insurance that covers extreme events and transitions to new crops Design fire insurance programs for farms New pathways for advancing funding, including crop block and crop rejuvenation grants Creating programs and partnerships with graziers for land management and fire resilience Incentives for large-scale agricultural producers and businesses to pivot practices Additional financial relief and relief fund efforts, supplementing income, loss of business, and basic living expenses, to help farmers and their businesses survive during times of emergency and crisis Incentive program to support and assist farmers and small agricultural businesses by providing additional security during crisis Provide pathways for farmers and farm workers to pursue adequate health and safety support, resources, and funding for healthcare and child and family care support as examples

I suspect my management practices will have to change to manage soil as weather patterns get more extreme. I have done some cover cropping in the past and expect to do more.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR : Education & Outreach Increasing existing outreach program efforts and funding for outreach that provides opportunities for technical assistance, advising, skill-development, and training are critical for promoting and supporting producers. The continued development of technical assistance programs and resources can help farmers in transitioning practices and adopting new tools, including information on the viability of alternative crops, implementation of mechanical harvesting, improved labor access, transitioning to more resilient and water-efficient practices, methods for integrated pest management and reducing pesticide use, and strategies for better soil management. Input demonstrates that producers need support in responding and rebounding in the aftermath of extremes, for example, dealing with contaminated soils after flooding. Producers have highlighted the need for more collaborative educa-

tion programs that allow for farmers to share their work and the strategies they are testing while being compensated for their knowledge and time. There is a clear need for a region-wide network or hub of tools and resources for information-sharing and mentorship amongst local farmers to advance understanding and options for climate-smart practices. While this is currently being pursued as part of the efforts of technical assistance entities, there is a need for further funding and development of these efforts to streamline resources for producers. Along with these educational tools to support farmers, public outreach to promote and inform consumers and the community on the importance of local agricultural producers, the challenges they face in bringing food to our tables, and the ways to support them, are important in advancing local resilience in the food system.

Advance regional resource hub offering connections, educational opportunities, and information-sharing Development of regionally-specific technical assistance programs to help farmers transition practices, implement/advise alternative crops, and test new methods Community and consumer education and outreach that promote local agriculture On-farm research support, not just technical support, to implement research projects Readily available technical assistance for farmers to help them respond and adapt to external challenges (e.g. extremes, emergencies, crisis) in order to maintain financial security

Advice for other/new farmers about farming in this region - pick crops that are well acclimated to where you are growing and try to mature a local distribution system, start small and grow into it.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Research Needs Input from producers, technical assistance, and researchers who participated in the consortium outlines several key areas of research needed to address climate-related challenges and to help producers implement practices and actions to ensure climate resilience. It is important to note that many of these research advancements will require additional technical assistance to support in bridging the gap between the science and on-farm application. This input, listed below, has been categorized into five priority areas of research focus, including regional and downscaled climate science; soil, water and carbon science; plant and crop science; economic analysis; and on-farm research. A full list of all research recommendations can be found in Appendix II.

RESEARCH NEED :

Regional & Downscaled Climate Science

As reflected in the full list of research needs there was significant emphasis on the need to translate large-scale research findings into local contexts and agricultural applications. Advancing regionally-specific, downscaled climate science that is accessible and applicable for the region’s agricultural sector is a critical tool in informing resource management and planning decisions at both the regional scale and at a farm to farm basis. Participants identified that there is a need for regional research to focus on specific climate drivers such as changing wind patterns and extreme wind events, temperature, precipitation, and other variables that impact agricultural production. Producers noted that regional research should help inform crop-specific recommendations and solutions on how best to buffer changes in heat, cold, precipitation and wind extremes, in addition to helping guide new crop varieties. Additionally, there is a need

for climate information at shorter times scales. Skilled seasonal to subseasonal forecasts can be applied by producers in the shorter term to plan and alter seasonal crop rotation. Shorter term forecasts must also be accessible for farmers, necessitating additional technical support in disseminating forecasts and working with farmers to plan accordingly each season. Producers also noted that high resolution, regional research should help inform crop-specific recommendations, solutions, and crop-planning methods on how best to buffer changes in heat, cold, precipitation and wind extremes. These advancements might also require additional technical assistance to advise in longer-term farm and crop planning. Another area of needed research identified by producers include the impacts of climate change on the health of workers.

Regionally-specific downscaled research on climate drivers Better seasonal to subseasonal forecasting at shorter time scales Agriculturally-relevant climate projections and weather forecasts Regionally-specific understanding of impacts on crops/production Crop-specific recommendations for addressing regional climate impacts Understanding of health risks and impacts to workers

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

We need better tools to measure the effectiveness of these practices and better tools to implement these practices. There is a need for applied research to translate large-scale research findings into regionally-specific contexts. It is confusing to figure out what to do to address specific issues for a specific crop. For example, protecting coffee plants from 28 degree temperature differs from protecting plants from 26 degrees and below.

" RESEARCH NEED : Soil, Water & Carbon Another priority area of research identified by participants focuses on developing better understanding of soil health, water resources, carbon sequestration potential, and the interactions, management, and competition of these landscape processes. Input reflects a need for understanding soil health, and methods for increasing

and measuring soil organic matter and carbon sequestration potential. Additionally, there is an opportunity to further research on water use efficiency to inform precision irrigation systems, practices that promote water retention and best practices for water management.

Mechanics and methods of carbon sequestration and accurate accounting Advancements in new/feasible carbon sequestering practices Water-use efficiency and precision irrigation research Understanding the potential for carbon sequestration of different practices Opportunities to increase diversity of cover cropping

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

RESEARCH NEED :

Plants & Crops

Input from participants highlight that further research is needed to identify strategies for increasing the health and long-term resilience of crops in the face of extreme events and climatic changes. This is an evolving region with the opportunity to transition crop practices to better mitigate existing challenges, while looking forward to adopting new crop varieties that are well suited for the region’s future climate variability Recommendations include methods for creating healthy, resilient crops, research on different varietals that use less water, mature quickly, are native and/or have been used traditionally,

and are temperature tolerant. Nursery and cut flower products are an important and defining characteristic of Southern California’s agricultural sector. However, there is a lack of research focused on the impacts of a changing climate for nursery and cut flower production. Additional research is needed to understand what these changes could mean for the nursery industry and to guide opportunities for innovation, resource efficiency, and best management practices that ensure production flourishes in the future.

Better understanding of impact of extremes on regionally important crops and perennial crops Research on more resilient, new varieties and types of cultivars suited for the region’s climate Information for farmers on types of seeds and varieties to test Better understanding of changes for pest, fungal and weed pressure Techniques for transitioning to perennial crop systems Impacts to nursery and cut flower production Opportunities for integrating rotation of small livestock for managing vegetation and crop systems Germplasm conservation and more breeding efforts to assist in producing food with less inputs

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

RESEARCH NEED :

Economic Analysis

Economic research, including economic analyses, tools, and studies, is a key area of research identified by consortium participants. Specifically, economic analyses of various climate-smart options and emerging techniques are needed to quantify the overall costs of certain farming practices and the amount of time required for these practices to begin to pay off. This information can help

identify the accurate amount of support and duration practices need to be incentivized by funding programs. Future funding incentives and grant programs need to be developed taking into account this information, while offering more flexibility, so that the true costs farmers face in taking actions are fully covered.

Economic analysis of climate-smart options and emerging techniques Cost studies and quantification of costs and benefits of on-farm implementation Designing grant programs and funding incentives to reflect economic analysis and true costs of implementation Potential regional economic and ecological benefit of using prescribed grazing versus alternative methods

RESEARCH NEED :

On-Farm Research

On-farm research and information sharing can promote opportunities for learning, education, and collaboration amongst farmers throughout the region. Conducting more on-farm research and additional demonstration projects can provide proof of concept for many of these strategies, identify overarching gaps, barriers, and opportunities for expanded implementation, and encourage a network of farmers to promote engagement in

research, share lessons learned, and strategies proven effective for the region. This research and information sharing platform can encourage farmer-led research that directly reflects the needs of farmers and includes indigenous and farmer knowledge to identify different ways of farming. Infrastructure to support these on-the-ground research initiatives, case study trials, and development of a learning and research hub is needed.

More on-farm research demonstration projects Regional research hub for local farmers Sharing of regional case studies among farmers to inform future research On-farm research and testing support, not just technical assistance Pauma Tribal Farm

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In collaboration with Pauma Band of Luiseño Indians and Solidarity Farm, the Carbon Farm Demonstration Project is working to help demonstrate how carbon sink farming practices can be applied under Southern California conditions to benefit farmers and support climate mitigation and resilience efforts. One of the goals of the project is to increase soil organic matter from 1% to 4%, specifically using compost application, cover cropping, no-till, hedgerow installation, and transition from row crops to trees. Throughout the project, the team has gathered data to monitor soil organic matter levels and soil moisture, in addition to performing an economic analysis that indicates net economic benefits by using these practices. This collaborative effort is a recipient of the CDFA Healthy Soils Grant.

Photo taken by Condor Visual Media

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Discussion & Conclusions

In this age of adapting to climate change, we need transformative practices and are looking to the agricultural sector to help lead us towards sustained and stable food systems into the future. Reflecting on the major tenets of climate adaptation planning and actions, our options are to pursue resilience and resistance, accommodation, or transformation. Farmers in Southern California are already taking actions on-the-ground and testing strategies, but we need to be able to provide a framework that they can invest in transformative practices that will secure our food in the future. We rely on our producers to not only put food on our plates, but also to test and try out approaches, strategies and new practices to increase the resilience of our food system. Guided by the input of this document, it is clear that many of our producers are already thinking long-term, testing new approaches, and working diligently to adapt and innovate in the face of regulatory, land use, and environmental challenges. In order to reward those producers who are working hard to innovate and be sustainable, we need a model that allows for adaptive deliverables with flexible funding mechanisms and longer sustained funding so that farmers can invest in transformative efforts that require time to come to fruition. Additionally, regionally-specific research, and the technical assistance to communicate this research, is needed to inform producers’ short-term and long-term planning, crop choices, and implementation of on-farm practices. Bottom line, there is a need to support producers to take on long-term transformational changes to be viable in the future. Producers need to be compensated and rewarded for taking on long-term

commitments, to test and implement strategies based on data and planning tools, in order to implement actions that are linked to regionally-specific and crop-specific information. Climate change offers us an opportunity and incentive to look for new and unique partnerships that have co-benefits beyond agriculture. For example, the region has a long standing and robust investment in conservation planning for wildlife. With high valued land it is difficult to conserve wildlife connectivity and habitat in the face of urban sprawl. At the same time San Diego County has the highest number of small farms in the country and a high number of minority and part-time or renter farmers who are not able to purchase the land to farm. If we could find pathways for conserving land while keeping portions of it in production for agriculture we could provide opportunities for new farmers and underserved populations to own land and keep food in production while also maintaining and protecting wildlife connectivity. Other key partnerships will include the collaboration of producers with water resource suppliers and regional planners. The 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops demonstrates that Southern California producers are already adapting to these challenges with innovative strategies, but ongoing changes will necessitate the appropriate tools, resources, and support to ensure resilience. With the support of additional resources and tools, the region’s producers will continue to pave the way in advancing climate solutions and strategies for a more resilient future.

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Acknowledgements

The 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops of Southern California was convened in partnership by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) and the Climate Science Alliance, building off of CDFA’s 2012 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops in northern and central California, to identify climate impacts and strategies for resilience specific to Southern California specialty producers. The input of the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops outlined in this document lays groundwork for informing and guiding CDFA’s future research activities and funding programs for years to come. Together, these ongoing efforts contribute to CDFA’s long-standing commitment to California agriculture, ensuring that the region’s agriculture continues to thrive now and into the future.

AUTHORS Dr. Amber Pairis, Climate Science Alliance Lindsey Jasperse, Climate Science Alliance Design by Diane Terry, Climate Science Alliance

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Acknowledgements

We would like to acknowledge the diverse group of growers, technical assistance advisors, researchers, and representatives from the organizations and institutions listed below for sharing your knowledge and time as part of the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops. On behalf of the Climate Science Alliance and CDFA, we thank you for your contribution to these efforts and for your commitment to our region’s agricultural community.

12 Oaks Vineyards & Winery

San Diego County Farm Bureau

2019 Carbon Sink Farming Convergence

San Diego Food Systems Alliance

Coastal Roots Farm

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Cultivaris

Shepherdess Land & Livestock Co.

Deardorff Family Farms

Solidarity Farm

Desert Research Institute

Sunfresh Vineyards

Escondido Growers for Agricultural Preservation

Tree of Life Nursery

Frinj Coffee

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Grangetto’s Farm & Garden Supply

UC Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources - Cooperative Extension

Jacy Farm

UC San Diego, Riverside, and Merced

Laganza Farm

USDA-ARS U.S. Salinity Laboratory

Mullins Family Farm

Vega Translingual

Resource Conservation District of Greater San Diego

Whittier College

San Diego Agricultural Laboratory

Wilson Creek Winery

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Appendix I: Case Studies As part of the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops, we shared stories of resilience from five producers/ farmers and one researcher through online case studies. The series of farmer/producer profiles, titled “From the Ground Up”, illustrates what it means to be a farmer in southern California, and the challenges and opportunities for resilience. Regional research and program efforts were also highlighted as a part of this series. The full case studies are available online at www.climatesciencealliance.org/from-the-ground-up

COA STAL ROOTS FARM Ricardo Lopez is the Vegetable Production Coordinator for Coastal Roots Farm. Located in Encinitas, California, this community-based farm specializes in organic vegetable production and hands-on education.

“As a farmer, I feel like I am part of the solution.”

E SCONDIDO GROWERS FOR AGRICULTUR AL PRE SERVATION A two-part segment of the “From the Ground Up” series with Edward Grangetto and John Burr, co-directors of the Escondido Growers for Agricultural Preservation (EGAP).

“The COVID-19 pandemic certainly shows us that our food security is reinforced by having a strong local supply chain.”

GR ANGE T TO R ANCHE S INC. Edward Grangetto, alongside his brother and sister, are co-owners of Grangetto Ranches Inc., where his wife Karen also works to help manage operations. Edward is co-founder of the Escondido Growers for Agricultural Preservation and works as a Crop Consultant and in handling outside sales for Grangetto’s Farm and Garden Supply.

“Farmings provides a business and lifestyle that suits our abilities and connection to the land.”

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

L AG ANZ A FARM Pedro Torres is an owner and grower at Laganza Farm, a small family farm with 3 acres of olives and 1/4 acre of apples in Aguanga, California.

“I feel a strong connection to working with the land and helping it bear fruit.”

THE MULLINS FAMILY FARM & FRINJ COFFEE Linda and Andy Mullins are owners and growers at Mullins Family Farm in Temecula, California. The Mullins grow a diversity of organic fruits and vegetables, and are pioneering a coffee-growing movement in southern California as co-founder/COO of Frinj Coffee.

“[We farm] because it is how we want to live.”

SOLIDARIT Y FARM Ellee Igoe is co-owner, farmer, and education coordinator at Solidarity Farm, and co-coordinator of the Carbon Sink Demonstration Farm at Pauma Tribal Farms in northeast San Diego County.

“The project is working to test strategies and demonstrate how carbon sink farming can support climate resilience.”

THE BUZ Z ON BEE S! For a special segment of the “From the Ground Up” series, we talked about climate impacts to honey bee health and populations with Dr. James Nieh, Associate Dean and Professor at UC San Diego, who participated in the 2020 Consortium.

“Many of the actions farmers are taking to build resilience, test climate-smart practices, and advance regenerative agriculture also help support pollinators so it’s a win-win.”

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Appendix II: Compilation of All Input The input below lists the individual responses of each 2020 Consortium participant, outlined by the feedback questionnaire distributed. Note: orange, bolded items were identified as priority by multiple participants.

1. What climate -related changes do you experience/obser ve on your land now ? • Temperature • Temperature changes leading to changes in harvest and budbreak, pest and fungal issues • Increased temperatures affecting bees, including stress on bees, and causing bees to seek water from pools and on beach • Decrease in proper chill time required to set senescence • Extreme high temperatures impact crop quality and result in yield loss • Temperature shifts causing late harvests and/or early bud break • Increased temperatures and extremes causing impacts to workers • Low temperatures, combined with excess precipitation, can damage fruit flowers and inhibit fruit set • Precipitation & Drought • Changes in rain and timing of rain • Decreased precipitation with increased intensity • Heavy sporadic precipitation causing flooding, erosion, and mildew issues • Changes in water availability and quality • Drought volatility with hotter temperatures • Less water availability and efficiency with resources and inputs, noted for Imperial County • Poor watershed function • Weather Variability & Extremes • Greater seasonal unpredictability, and within season shifts/extremes • More spikes in the climate/weather • Extreme weather events in the form of heat, wind, precipitation • Extreme heat events • Wind • Winds becoming more variable with strong wind events • Strong wind events cause impacts to young trees, including stripping branches of leaves and buds • Variable winds result in drops in moisture at unexpected times • Wildfire • Air quality impacts • Physical impacts to property • Threat of wildfire and evacuation • Loss of crops • Impacts to farmers and workforce with reduced air quality and relocation/displacement • Impacts to Labor Force • Heat illness and inability to work outdoors due to extreme temperatures • Relocation because of fire 44

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• Air quality impacts from fire and heat induced ozone-air pollution • Other Noted Changes/Experiences • Difficulty in crop planning • Increased pressure from weeds that are adapting faster than crops, resulting in more difficult timing and efficacy of treatment • Changes in energy and water use, drilling more and deeper for water • 100% crop loss from both flood and early frost events

2 . In what ways do you think that changes impac t/benef it the region’s agricultural producers and lands? • Drought Challenges • Increased irrigation/water costs and more regulations on water • A need to provide clean water for bees • Higher salinity • Decrease in quality of water • Decrease in soil microbiology • Costs associated with increased salinity and decreased water quality, including management of high salinity irrigation water and buying clean water • More pressure to be efficient • No groundwater backup plan, specifically in Imperial County, forcing identification of other sources • Wilting of plants • Lower water table, aquifer depletion, and more/deeper wells • Longer dry seasons will affect varieties of vegetables we grow • Seasonal shifts in crops, specifically from longer and drier fall seasons • Changing weather patterns make crop cycles unpredictable, specifically drought and runoff from big storms • Loss of productive land which is high priced • Decreased viability of cattle operations Benefits • Opportunities to transition to water efficient practices/management • Decreased weeds and pests, specifically less insects • Less fruit rot fungus (e.g. for grapes) • Access to crop insurance • Ability to manage through drought periods • Changes in species distribution ranges could benefit California native nursery production • Precipitation & Water Challenges • Need for planning for extremes • Extreme precipitation makes it difficult to manage erosion and implement disease/pest control • Increased pest and weed pressure • Increased downstream pollution, causing runoff in fields, waterways (e.g. wells), and for neighboring areas/ communities • Decreased water availability, lack of water 2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

• • • • • • • • •

Limited precipitation causing less water retention and recharge Lack of capture systems for banking future use More erosion, causing nutrient, infrastructure, and crop loss Difficulty capturing water with a shorter and more extreme wet season Extreme precipitation causing crop loss Difficulty establishing cooler crops Lack of regulations for testing and managing usages Flood contaminates crops resulting in crop losses Erosion on property roads and pathways

Benefits • Rain can flush salts from soil deposited by irrigation • Reduction in water bill • Extreme precipitation can replenish groundwater resources • Temperatures Challenges • Earlier bud break combined with frost • Heat stress on crops often leading to crop loss • Geographic shifts in crops (e.g. suitability of where certain crops can grow) • New types of pests with changes in pest life cycles • Shifts in growing season, specifically for Imperial County, with earlier or later seasons for vegetable production that can alter logistics of planting, bed, and compost prep • Short-term drastic temperature changes will greatly affect crops, mostly during winter and spring when the crops being grown are especially sensitive (e.g. for brassicas and cut greens) Benefits/Opportunities • Fewer frost days, causing less damage to existing crops • Potential for new crops • More organic growers in San Diego area • Plant breeders can select for more tolerant crops • Wildfire • Many roads not equipped for evacuation • Crop damage, with specific examples from loss/impacts to wine grapes due to reduced quality from smoke • Property loss including agricultural/crop lands and farm infrastructure and equipment • Causes farms to go out of business • Increases in insurance premiums (e.g. 150% increase) • Loss of existing fire insurance or ability to be insured at all • Post fire increases risk of landslides and debris flows • Wind • Santa Ana winds and/or wind events strip branches and leaves from trees and drop moisture levels, destroying bloom cycles of crops • Wind can destroy young trees • Power outages • Weather Variability • Changing weather patterns make crop cycles unpredictable and planning difficult 46

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• Changes in weather patterns impact crop quality (e.g. grape quality) • Concerns on impacts of climate change on viability of food production in San Diego County • Other • Health of farm workers • Farming is becoming a higher risk business • Market shifts are unpredictable meaning increased market pressure • Changes in species distribution • Being able to find implementable solutions • Increased competition for non-agricultural water uses • Farm insurance is getting harder to find and afford

3. Given the projec ted impac t s, what do you see as the greatest challenges and/or oppor tunities for the region’s agricultural producers and lands in the shor t term and long term? Short and long-term challenges and opportunities identified by the region’s agricultural producers fell into three main categories including the need for funding and resources, economic viability, climate data in planning tools. • Funding and Resources Short-Term • Lack of resources for climate adaptation for small grower enterprises • Getting enough resilience practices in place at various levels, including for the soil, crop variability, water sustainability, and supply and demand • Cost of changing root stock and density • Methods for managing crop productivity during extreme rain events and extended drought (land management, weed and pest control, etc.). • Changes to duration of the growing season • Supplemental funding for adaptation projects • Public perception of animal agricultural lands as degrading Long-Term • Compensate farmers for the ecosystem services their activities provide • Cost of adding new “biotubing” to new high value crops • Moving beyond vineyard clean up and management to focusing on vine health and soil health • Need for continued education and outreach to raise public awareness about the value of local agricultural production and challenge to growers • Continue and increase funding and support for technical advisory roles/programs and research • Preserve farmland as buffer from wildland natural disasters • Improve the quality of wine • (Open up conversations of climate-smart practices co-benefits for other non-agricultural stakeholders (natural resources and water managers, etc.) • Uptake of regenerative agriculture • Economic Viability Short-Term • Higher water prices due to lower water availability 2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

• Water restrictions due to high use • Inability to grow crops after flooding occurs, resulting in crop loss • Wildfire destruction of farm equipment and infrastructure Long-Term • New varieties need distribution channels • Wildfire destruction of habitat • Climate, Data, & Planning Tools Short-Term • Lack of local microclimate agricultural production data • Extreme weather events • Uncertainty in water availability • Crop planning • Pest/disease shifts or expansion Short and Long-Term • Fewer crop rotations Long-Term • Reduce the need for migratory honey bee keeping • Opportunities for using native bees for local crops • Ways to make large scale pollination of crops more sustainable • Groundwater recharge • Wildfire • Shifting land due to changing floodplain • Sustain or increase habitat for native bees • Consider ways to use native bees in agriculture • Regionally-specific research for the region • Future options for more controlled and indoor agriculture

4 . What prac tices and/or ac tions are producers taking to address these climate -related challenges and in what ways do you think these effor t s help buffer climate impac t s and challenges? • Climate-Smart Practices - In Action • Cover Cropping for mitigating erosion and cycling nutrients • No-till, heavy mulch, computerized watering system, windbreaks, ago-forestry, layered agriculture • Soil improvement such as mulching, cover crops, and composting • Water smart practices • Agroforestry including storied/layered agriculture • Extensively cover crops and carbon-rich soil amendments such as biochar, cover crops, compost • Applying plant photosynthetic enhancing technology to increase radiance • Interested in layering and integrating Healthy Soils Program practices • Conservation cover crops, no till, and increasing soil health • Crop choices that are high value and/or climate appropriate crops • Reducing or eliminating glyphosate use and focusing on soil health • Multilayer grading systems 48

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• • • • • • • • • • •

Wind banks/windbreaks Shade covers for young plants Increase soil organic matter by minimizing tillage and composting regularly Chicken rotation, cover cropping and vegetable planting Sustainable agriculture Practices that increase soil quality, increasing organic matter in our soil and wildlife habitat, especially in an urban setting Cover cropping, biochar/compost, mulch, windbreaks and hedgerows, perennial crop transition Compost making and soil building, biodiversity and use of beneficial insects Locally made compost as the primary soil amendment Planting hundreds of native trees and flowering bushes to increase beneficial insect biodiversity Integrating small livestock species that are more hardy and require less water, including sheep and goats, for vegetation, orchard, and crop management

• New Technology and Innovation • Efficient and flexible irrigation systems that use renewable energy • New varieties (e.g. salt tolerant rootstocks, prevention from root rot, and varieties that can withstand cold/heat/ drought) • Automated IRB and sensors • Research to plant test varieties • Algae as fertilizer • Computerized watering system • Installing RO units, but there is a problem with what to do with the brine water generated, using reclaimed water from cities, adopting saline tolerant varieties/rootstocks for tree crops and also trying overall to be more efficient • Education & Marketing • Shifting marketing/PR and educational resources to educate customers about the importance and adaptability of CA native plants for drought and temperature changes

5. O f the prac tices, ac tions, and programs identif ied to address climate -related challenges, what do you think should be prioritized based on relevance, effec tiveness and/or viabilit y for the region’s producers? • Farm Practices • Compost • Cover cropping • Animal grazing/rotation • Minimal tillage • Regenerative agriculture • Cultivar selection • Soil development • Water efficiency systems • Research and Funding • Varietal development and distribution channels • Ways to measure carbon sequestration and water retention • Cost and market analyses 2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

• New salinity tolerant rootstock (e.g. developed years ago for avocados and now available in limited quantities) • Prescribed grazing and integrated small livestock management for fire resilience • Small agricultural businesses with value-driven missions and prioritization of climate practices need economic support to start-up • Large agricultural businesses need incentivization to pivot practices toward climate beneficial production • Planning and Policy • Crop insurance for fire, extreme weather events, crop loss • Healthy Soil Initiatives and support for innovative approaches that growers are testing • Support for farmers who are working on farming methods that help slow climate change • Water capture and storage systems on farms and in the region • Land use zoning to protect existing agricultural land as a buffer zone • Crop rejuvenation grant and funding • Linking tools and EQUIP grants (e.g. freeze or heat event warnings linked to app, with more on high tunnel programs) • Land access and partnerships with grazing businesses • Education and Outreach • New techniques and technology to support innovation and testing • Outreach, demonstrations, and farmer to farmer networks to advance understanding and options for regenerative agriculture and its long-term benefit versus conventional farming • Technical assistance to support farm economic viability of alternative crops, mechanical harvesting, improved labor access, more resilient practices to water scarcity, better soil management, reduced pesticide use • Develop farmer education meetings where farmers are compensated for teaching others and for trying new things • Education programs that build community and political support • Outreach, demonstrations, and farmer to farmer networks to advance understanding and options for regenerative agriculture and its long-term benefit versus conventional farming • Public education about the benefits of agricultural systems, specifically animal agriculture • More forms of media to shift the culture around agriculture

6. Are there addi tional prac tices and/or ac tions that you think producers could take and/or currently take to address these challenges and increase their farm’s long-term climate resilience that have not been discussed here? • New Technology/Techniques • H20 sensor technology • Additional strategies to increase soil organic matter • Open to different cultivars • Computer monitoring • Adapting cropping systems • Diversify crops • Native or locally adapted crops • Micronutrient and amendments to manage heat and cold events • Polyculture • Use of potassium/boron supplements for heat events or if you are a test site 50

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• Use of cover crops as a means of water and nutrient retention • Research and Funding • Better subseasonal to seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation for farmers • Up-front payments for farmers that pay for 100% of conservation practice cost rather than invoicing after implementation • Find alternative crops that are more suited to the changing conditions • Require subject matter experts to work outside their region • Helping to fund germplasm conservation and breeding efforts to help growers continue producing with less input • More legislative and financial support for non-row crop agricultural commodities • Planning and Policy • Long-term strategic planning for farms • Capture systems for banking future use • Match grant money to length and cost of transformational actions (e.g. 20 years to move into vineyard grapes with no low chill needed) • Participation and advocacy in water management policy/negotiation • Support for farmers to work on resilient soils • Participation in regional water planning and statewide negotiations, • Creating programs that reward farmers to reduce impacts/emissions caused by the current way we produce and consume food to reward the good sustainable farmer • Need for researching regulations and policies on food processing transparency • Pathways for advancing funding specifically crop block grants • Education and Outreach • Create learning hubs for farmers to network, learn from each other, be engaged in research, be compensated to use their land to test resilience strategies and advance research knowledge • Farmer to farmer exchanges where farmers are paid for their time to support each other • Encourage grower to grower communication and direct email of specific timely information • Outreach on the narrative of agriculture to shift image of local agriculture’s role in climate solutions • Ensure that Technical Assistance providers know about local resources (e.g. equipment and suppliers) and require them to resolve for deficits • More resources for USDA and NRCS • Bring people out to the farm to educate the public on all of our struggles and successes with the practices, helping personalize farming • Opportunity to raise awareness about the value of agricultural production in the area • The urban population needs to understand more fully where their food comes from so that there is more support for agricultural research • The UC and CSU systems need to refocus attention on ag research and supporting it without requiring the farmers to have PhD knowledge

7. What knowledge (e.g. research) do you think is needed to address these challenges and to help producers implement these prac tices/ac tions? • Regional/Downscaled Climate Science • Health Impacts to outdoor workers 2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

• • • • • • • • •

Changes in wind events and Santa Anas Applied research to translate large-scale research findings into regionally-specific context Research and publication of crop specific recommendation for heat/cold/wind Improved regionally-specific climate projections on shorter time scales, such as skilled subseasonal to seasonal forecasting to provide better forecasts of relevant extremes Finer scale downscaled climate change predictions for agriculturally relevant variables Water and climate tools for growers Better and higher resolution historical weather and climate information Develop cultivars based on future scenarios Better understanding of impacts of climate extremes on production

• Soil, Water, and Carbon • Support for the development of resilient crops • Research for soil quality • Study competition between water management resources and soil health building (e.g. cover crop where there are competing resource problems) • Accurate soil carbon accounting and measuring carbon sequestration/GHG emissions on farms • Funding for studies on how to reduce chemical applications in water • Precision irrigation and fertilization • Understand how plant microbiome and soil carbon changes differ under different practices and technologies • Methods to measure greenhouse gas and soil carbon (e.g. perhaps soil health kits) • Research on how the mitigation programs and practices can work for San Diego • The role of plants to increase soil microbes for increased soil organic matter. • Root soil carbon sequestration mechanics and other options to move beyond cover crops because cover crops are not a suitable practice for everyone • More breeding and germplasm conservation, water use efficiency research, pest management research • Plants/Crops • Better understanding on the impact of extremes on important crops regionally • Crop specific recommendations needed for extreme weathers events (heat/cold/wind) • Research on more resilient crops that use less water and are tolerant to extreme weather and temperatures • Connection between plant photosynthesis, efficiency and resilience • Nitrification programs that create healthy plants that are more resilient under stress and build soil biology • Resources to address specific issues for a specific crop (e.g. protecting coffee to 28 degrees differs from 26 degrees and below) • Effects of climate change on perennials • Information on where to get seeds and what varieties should we be trying • Adaptability to scale of your soil and understanding how to transition to more complex soils • Increase diversity for cover cropping • Fertility impacts for crops and perhaps soil systems • Research on plants that take a short time to mature • Better understanding of changes for pest pressure i.e. weeds, insects and fungus • Techniques for transitioning to perennial crop systems • Reinvest and research native and/or locally adapted crops • Research on impacts to nursery crops • Information on how climate change could affect the Hemp business • More germplasm conservation and breeding efforts 52

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

• Economic Analysis • Research how much benefit producers are getting from each of these practices, and the actual duration that they need to be incentivized by grants and outside funding. Allows for flexibility and accurate expectations on the time for implementation and investment of funding and resources to cover implementation • Economic analysis of various climate-smart options and emerging techniques • Cost studies/market studies • Financial pathways for moving from high-value crop focus and diversification • New approach to crop insurance and funding to transition crops • Integrating economy into scenarios and analysis • Incentivize monetarily to try these strategies out and share with other producers • Cost-benefit analysis of economic and ecological potential benefit of using prescribed grazing versus alternative methods (machinery) • On-Farm Research • Funding for on farm-climate science research and capacity building • More case studies or demonstration projects • Need more regional case study examples to demonstrate proof of concept • Create a research learning platform to farmers to be engaged in research, share on-farm results from testing strategies, and advance research knowledge • Weather stations on-site • Incentivize bottom to top research including indigenous and farmer knowledge to identify different ways of farming

8. What kind of suppor t or tools (e.g. policies, programs, technical assistance, funding) do you think are needed to address these challenges and to help producers implement these prac tices/ac tions? • Direct Economic Support/Funding • Support for nursery and floral crops • Subsidy for on-farm carbon sequestration • Crop rejuvenation grants (e.g. avocados) • Grants that need to cover the lifespan of the change given that plants take time • On farm research support, not just technical support • Carbon sequestration grants that cover longer periods of time to fully understand long-term sequestration potential • Enough money in healthy soils grants to buy necessary equipment to fulfill practice requirement • No-till equipment (seeders, roller/crimper) regional check out of tools for all to use • Planning and Policy • Land use planning to keep agriculture competitive with urban development • Facilitation between agricultural and urban interests • Incentive programs need to be flexible • Fire insurance programs for farms as many farmers operate in “fringe” boundary between urban and rural areas so it is hard to get insurance. We are having our farm/home insurance canceled because of fire danger. If we were not living on a farm (in a boundary area) we would be able to insure our house 2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

• Education, Outreach, Technical Assitance, & Future Collaboration • Outreach on resources available for small scale growers in Southern California and build some connections with other growers in the area • New ideas for Southern California region climate resilience, greater understanding of challenges around climate adaptation in the region • Information sharing that fosters, participation in our local climate change discussion, resources to share with the local producers, and networking • Connecting researchers with farmers and advisors to find ways that laboratory/research programs can address the needs of the region • Creating space for information on current pressing issues for farmers and create avenue for collaborations and testing • Events for answering questions and discussing how research informs our understanding of climate change impacts • A chance for researchers to hear from farmers and operators their concerns on how climate change is impacting their business • Connect with farmers and others in region to find ways to partner to get things done • Gaining better understanding of climate issues/concerns from Specialty Agriculture perspective • Information on how climate change could affect the Hemp business • Education events to learn about soil contamination and what to do after flooding • Other strategies for coping with weather challenges • Learn about how farmers cope with climate change • Reliable information • Discussing ways to cope • Need for pulling together interdisciplinary groups and scholars. • Education to change the way we eat in the way we consume our produce • Events that listen to farmers on what they believe works • Better tools to measure effectiveness of these practices and better tools to implement these practices • Farmers need education and support on a large scale to really affect change. How do we compete with encroaching development? • Increased collaboration with other businesses who share values, including cross-marketing for start-ups, a collective model for sharing expensive equipment

9. What is the most effec tive way for us to share fu ture information and resources with you per taining to these topic s? (e.g. webpage, emails, other) • • • • • • • • • •

Email Newsletter Youtube Publications Webpage Social Media-Facebook, Instagram Radio & tv Extension personnel Encourage grower to grower communication and workshops to advance information sharing and network of practice Research and technical info need to be synthesized and on hand at in person meetings

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

References Agricultural Commissioner’s Office. (2019, December 9). Riverside County Agricultural Production Report 2018 Story Map. Retrieved from https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/ c0748c117e374c32983e0b590c73fe80 Baguskas, S. A., Clemesha, R. E., & Loik, M. E. (2018). Coastal low cloudiness and fog enhance crop water use efficiency in a California agricultural system. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 252, 109–120. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.01.015 Baldocchi, D.D., Waller, E. (2014). Winter fog is decreasing in the fruit growing region of the Central Valley of California. Geophys Res Lett 41:3251–3256. Retrieved from https:// agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL060018 Batra, Puja. (2018). “Linking Climate-Friendly Farming Practices to San Diego County’s Climate Action Plan: An Opportunity Analysis of Carbon Farming in the Unincorporated County.” San Diego Food Systems Alliance. 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North Pacific cyclonic and anticyclonic transients in a global warming context: possible consequences for Western North American daily precipitation and temperature extremes. Climate Dynamics, 32(7-8), 969–987. doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0417-3. Retrieved from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-0080417-3 Fulton, A., Goldhamer, D., Lampinen, B., Prichard, T., Sanden, B., Schwanki, L., & Shackel, K. (2014). Almonds. Retrieved February 13, 2020, from http://ucmanagedrought.ucdavis.edu/ Agriculture/Crop_Irrigation_Strategies/Almonds/ Geisel PM, Unruh CL (2003) “Frost Protection for Citrus and Other Subtropicals.” UC ANR Publication 8100. Oakland, CA: University of California Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources. Retrieved from https://anrcatalog.ucanr.edu/Details.aspx?itemNo=8100 Gershunov, A., & Guirguis, K. (2012). California heat waves in the present and future. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(18). https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052979. 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Imperial County Office of the Agricultural Commissioner, 2019) Imperial County Office of the Agricultural Commissioner (2019). Imperial County Agricultural Crop & Livestock Report 2018. Retrieved from https://agcom.imperialcounty.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2018_Imperial_County_Crop_and_Livestock_Report-1.pdf Jackson, L. E., Wheeler, S. M., Hollander, A. D., O’Geen, A. T., Orlove, B. S., Six, J., … Tomich, T. P. (2011). Case study on potential agricultural responses to climate change in a California landscape. Climatic Change, 109(S1), 407–427. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0306-3 Jackson, L., Haden, V.R., Wheeler, S.M., Hollander, A.D., Perlman, J., O’Geen, T., Mehta, V.K., Clark, V., Williams, J., Thrupp, A. (2012). University of California, Davis. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in California Agriculture. California Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC-500- 2012-031. Retrieved from https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/ 2012publications/CEC-500-2012-031/CEC-500-2012-031.pdf Jennings, M.K., Cayan, D., Kalansky, J., Pairis, A.D., Lawson, D.M., Syphard, A.D., Abeysekera, U., Clemesha, R.E.S., Gershunov, A., Guirguis, K., Randall, J.M., Stein, E.D., & Vanderplank, S. (2018). San Diego County Ecosystems: Ecological Impacts Of Climate Change On A Biodiversity Hotspot. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. Retrieved from https://www.climatesciencealliance.org/sdc-ecosystems-assessment Kalansky, J., Cayan, D., Barba, K., Walsh, L., Brouwer, K., Boudreau, D., Amabile, T., Batra, P., Clemesha, R., Crooks, J., Engeman, L., Flick, R.E., Gershunov, A., Giddings, S., Goodrich, K., Grim, M., Koike, S. T., Cahn, M., Cantwell, M., Fennimore, S., Lestrange, M., Natwick, E., Smith, R., Takele, E. (2009). Cauliflower Production in California. The Regents of the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. 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Environmental Health, Global Health, Special Populations. doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190632366.013.39 Lobell, D. B., Field, C. B., Cahill, K. N., & Bonfils, C. (2006). Impacts of future climate change on California perennial crop yields: Model projections with climate and crop uncertainties. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 141(2-4), 208–218. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.10.006. Received from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S016819230600308X Lobell, D. B., Cahill, K. N., & Field, C. B. (2007). Historical effects of temperature and precipitation on California crop yields. Climatic Change, 81(2), 187–203. doi: 10.1007/s10584-0069141-3. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226031904_Historical_effects_of_temperature_and_precipitation_on_California_crop_yields Lobell, D. B., & Field, C. B. (2011). California perennial crops in a changing climate. Climatic Change, 109(S1), 317–333. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0303-6 Maizlish N, English D, Chan J, Dervin K, English P. (2017). Climate Change and Health Profile Report: Kern County. Office of Health Equity, California Department of Public Health. Retrieved from https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OHE/CDPH%20Document%20Library/CHPRs/CHPR029Kern__County2-23-17.pdf Mobley, E. (2019, October 26). Wildfires and Wine Country: How the industry is adapting to new realities. The San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved from https://www.sfchronicle. com/wine/article/Wildfires-and-Wine-Country-How-the-industry-is-14563760.php Morse., J.G., Faber, B.A., Hoddle, M.S., Eskalen, A. (2016). Agriculture: Avocado Pest Management Guidelines: Persea Mite. University of California Integrated Pest Management. Retrieved from https://www2.ipm.ucanr.edu/agriculture/avocado/Persea-mite/ Newman, J. P. (2014). Container Nursery Production and Business Management Manual. Retrieved from https://books.google.com/books?id=4eHwAwAAQBAJ&pg=PA8&lpg=PA8&dq=rising costs of water san diego nurseries&source=bl&ots=J1jPj-OP5K&sig=ACfU3U2E13oY-zE0o2VzhLey5HkNbduIsQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi1v_vtjujoAhVGM6wKHWVh-Dko4ChDoATACegQIDBAx#v=onepage&q=rising costs of water san diego nurseries&f=false Nicholas, K. A., Matthews, M. A., Lobell, D. B., Willits, N. H., & Field, C. B. (2011). Effect of vineyard-scale climate variability on Pinot noir phenolic composition. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 151(12), 1556–1567. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.06.010 Orduña, R. M. D. (2010). Climate change associated effects on grape and wine quality and production. Food Research International, 43(7), 1844–1855. doi: 10.1016/j. foodres.2010.05.001 Ozores-Hampton, M., Kiran, F., & McAvoy, G. (2012). Blossom Drop, Reduced Fruit Set, and Post-Pollination Disorders in Tomato. Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences Department, University of Florida. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272166180_Blossom_Drop_Reduced_Fruit_Set_and_Post-Pollination_Disorders_ in_Tomato Pathak, T., Maskey, M., Dahlberg, J., Kearns, F., Bali, K., & Zaccaria, D. (2018). Climate Change Trends and Impacts on California Agriculture: A Detailed Review. Agronomy, 8(3), 25. Doi: 10.3390/agronomy8030025 Pessarakli, M. (2001). Handbook of Plant and Crop Physiology. New York, NY: Marcel Dekker, Inc. . Retrieved from https://books.google.com/books?id=wmMHEuXEb4UC&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&dq=fruit settings “burning” “scorching” of blossoms&source=gbs_navlinks_s Riverside County Agricultural Commissioner’s Office . (2018). Riverside County Agricultural Production Report. Retrieved from https://www.rivcoawm.org/Portals/0/PDF/2018Crop-Report.pdf San Diego County Farm Bureau. (n.d.). San Diego Agriculture. Retrieved April 14, 2020, from https://www.sdfarmbureau.org/san-diego-agriculture/ University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. (n.d.). About San Diego County Agriculture. Retrieved April 17, 2020, from https://ucanr.edu/sites/sdsmallfarms/ University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources Ventura County. (n.d.). Climate Smart Agriculture. Retrieved April 17, 2020, from http://ceventura.ucanr.edu/Com_Ag/ Climate_Smart_Agriculture/ University of California Cooperative Extension Vegetable Research and Information Center. (n.d.). Kern County Agriculture. Retrieved April 17, 2020, from https://vric.ucdavis.edu/ virtual_tour/kern.htm University of California Davis (UCD) Agadapt (2017). Climate Change Effects on Chilling Hours for Yolo County’s Fruit and Nut Trees. Retrieved on June 29, 2017 from http://agadapt. ucdavis.edu/chillhours University of Massachusetts Amherst Center for Agriculture, Food, and the Environment. (2017, April 26). Growing-on at Cooler than Optimum Temperatures. Retrieved April 20, 2020,from https://ag.umass.edu/greenhouse-floriculture/fact-sheets/growing-on-at-cooler-than-optimum-temperatures United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). (2012). 2012 Census of Agriculture County Profile: Kern County California. Retrieved April 17, 2020, from https://www.nass.usda.gov/ Publications/AgCensus/2012/Online_Resources/County_Profiles/California/cp06029.pdf USDA (2016). Crop Fact Sheet Series. Retrieved February 13, 2020, from https://swclimatehub.info/system/files/Broccoli.pdf USDA. (2017). 2017 Census of Agriculture County Profile: Riverside County Agriculture . Retrieved April 17, 2020, from https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/ Online_Resources/County_Profiles/California/cp06065.pdf USDA. (n.d.). Specialty Crops in California. Retrieved April 17, 2020, from https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/california/topic/specialty-crops-california Yang, S. (2014, May 20). Central Valley sees big drop in wintertime fog needed by fruit and nut crops. Berkeley News. Retrieved from https://news.berkeley.edu/2014/05/20/centralvalley-gets-less-winter-tule-fog-for-crops/

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

Resources and Additional Materials Supplemental resources created by the Climate Science Alliance for the 2020 Climate Change Consortium for Specialty Crops, including technical materials as well as educational materials created for community outreach and engagement, can be found on the “Resilient Roots: Climate-Smart Agriculture and Food Systems” webpage. www.climatesciencealliance.org/resilient-roots-resources

TECHNICAL RE SOURCE S

Summary Guide to Climate Impacts on Crops

2020 Consortium Powerpoint

2020 Consortium One-Pager

COMMUNIT Y RE SOURCE S

Climate Cookbook: Recipes & Activities

Climate & Food Systems Traveling Trunks

“Resilience” Art Series on Coffee and Climate Change

and more!

For more information on programs under the CDFA Office of Environmental Farming & Innovation (OEFI), as well as materials from both the 2020 and 2012 Consortium, please visit the OEFI webpage. www.cdfa.ca.gov/oefi

2020 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSORTIUM FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION

2020 Climate Change Impacts for Specialty Crops: Southern California Region