Mesa City Center: Economic & Implementation Opportunity Assessment

MESA CITY CENTER Economic & Implementation Opportunity Assessment March 20, 2015

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OPPORTUNITY & CONTEXT ! ! !

Introduction Economic Opportunity Context

II. IMPLICATIONS & NEXT STEPS ! ! ! ! !

Framework Public Space Program Making it Real Downtown Implications Next Steps

INTRODUCTION | HR&A Advisors is a real estate and economic development consultancy with expertise in the economics of place making.

Planning

Design & Construction

Phased Implementation

Complete

MSP Green Line

Seattle Waterfront

Waterfront Toronto

Cincy Fountain Square

Fort Mason Center

MOA Peavey Plaza

NYC The High Line

Boston RK G’way

Oklahoma City

Memphis Shelby Farms

Brooklyn Bridge Park

NYC Battery Park

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INTRODUCTION | Parks that support place making require an upfront alignment of goals, design, and implementation structure.

VISION Desired constituencies

Responsibilities; authority

DESIGN & PROGRAMMING

FUNDING & GOVERNANCE

Resource requirements; revenue potential HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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INTRODUCTION | Stakeholders agree on the broad strokes: Great downtowns support strong cities.

Great parks support great downtowns.

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OPPORTUNITY | Stakeholders also agree on objectives: denser market rate housing, increased visitation, and a stronger retail core.

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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY | A new “city center” can help realize Mesa goals and provide return on public investment.

The High Line, Discovery Green, NYC Houston ! Investment: $134M ! Investment: $70M public ($143M total) public ($125m total) ! Result: $1B net ! Result: ~$1B new impact development HR&A Advisors, Inc.

Fountain Square, Cincinnati ! Investment: $5m public ($50m total) ! Result: $125M+ new development 7

Yes!...... but

CONTEXT | Yes! Parks can catalyze development.

Central Park, Construction

CONTEXT | Yes! Parks can catalyze development.

Central Park, Present Day HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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CONTEXT | But – local stakeholders agree that public space is just one of a series of interventions required to realize the downtown vision.

Programming new frontiers

Commercial development

VIRTUOUS CYCLE OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT

Retail amenities HR&A Advisors, Inc.

Public realm & infrastructure

Residential development 11

CONTEXT | But -- public space is just one of a series of interventions required to realize the downtown vision.

Waterfront Seattle HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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CONTEXT | Yes! Strong metro and citywide population growth can support downtown transformation.

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CONTEXT | But – local stakeholders are well aware that downtown Mesa lags other regional centers.

Downtown Residents per Square Mile 7,510

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000

4,550

4,710

Scottsdale

Phoenix

5,030

5,260

Chandler

Gilbert

4,000 3,000

2,580

2,000 1,000 0 Mesa

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Tempe

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CONTEXT | Moreover - success in Mesa will require distinguishing Mesa’s image from that of the region.

Metro Population Growth, 20-34 yr. olds, 2007 - 2013 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Phoenix HR&A Advisors, Inc.

Austin

Raleigh

Charlotte

Denver

San Antonio Fort Worth 15

CONTEXT | Yes! Downtown Mesa trends are favorable, with strong organic growth and significant public support for major initiatives

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Image credits (Clockwise from top left): Mesa Arts Center, HR&A, Southwest Maker Fest, AZ Central

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CONTEXT | But – investments are disconnected, and phasing may not have been optimal; an overarching framework for urban development is essential.

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Image credit: Colwell Shelor team

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CONTEXT | Yes! Extraordinary public land control in a compact CBD creates a unique redevelopment opportunity.

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Image credit: City of Mesa Central Main Street Area Plan

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CONTEXT | But – the absence of market rate housing supply means that demand is not demonstrated.

Current Monthly Rent, 1-Bedroom Apartments 1,200

$1,109

1,000 800 600

$561

$622

$671

$779

$892

400 200 0 Mesa

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Chandler

Gilbert

Tempe

Phoenix

Scottsdale

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CONTEXT | Yes! Mesa has “good bones.”

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Image credits: Meas Museum; Nick Florio via Mesa Preservation Foundation

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CONTEXT | But – City facilities can be challenging neighbors to active parks.

Dressed for success in the fashion of the day A daytime population of moderate means Ceremonial streets Orphaned public space

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CONTEXT | Therefore – great operations (including programming) will be as important as great design.

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I.

OPPORTUNITY & CONTEXT ! ! !

Introduction Economic Opportunity Context

II. IMPLICATIONS & NEXT STEPS ! ! ! ! !

Framework Public Space Program Making it Real Downtown Implications Next Steps

FRAMEWORK| Mesa’s vision and context inform key moves in three categories.

1. Public Space Program

Vision & Context 3. Other Downtown Actions HR&A Advisors, Inc.

2. Public Space Implementation 24

PUBLIC SPACE| The Colwell Shelor proposal for City Center supports 3 related but distinct objectives for the public space itself.

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Image credits: Colweel Shelor team

PUBLIC SPACE 1| The new public space must support downtown Mesa’s distinct new brand within the metro region: the “Brooklyn” of metro Phoenix.

Kimbell Museum / Fort Worth Cultural District HR&A Advisors, Inc. Image Credit: Kimbell Art Museum

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PUBLIC SPACE 2| The space must become the central gathering space for downtown residents and employees, adjacent neighborhoods, and visitors.

Klyde Warren Park, Dallas HR&A Advisors, Inc. Image Credit: KlydeWarren Park

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PUBLIC appeal and drives value. appeal and PUBLICSPACE| SPACE Programming 3| The space enhances will host programming that enhances drives value: a 21st century park, not a 19th century one.

Lawn on D - Boston HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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MAKING IT REAL| A thoughtfully designed, well-maintained, activated, multiuse “district� can build brand - ensuring value creation over time.

Waterfront Toronto HR&A Advisors, Inc. Image Credit: KlydeWarren Park

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MAKING IT REAL| A “civic district� anchored by the Civic Center could

distinguish Mesa from regional alternatives and national competitors.

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MAKING IT REAL| Phasing must lead with nodes of strength.

Main & Center HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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MAKING IT REAL| Leave well enough alone.

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MAKING IT REAL| Ensure that the first phase is right-sized for the objectives established.

Romare Beardon Park, Charlotte HR&A Advisors, Inc. Image Credit: KlydeWarren Park

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MAKING IT REAL| Signature public spaces are costly to build and maintain.

Millions

Capital and Operating Cost Summary $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Millennium Yerba Bueno Park Gardens Capital

High Line

Discovery Green

Hance Park

Centennial Olympic Park

Operating (20 yr estimate) Discount Rate = 5%

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MAKING IT REAL| Public capital funding will be tied to probable ROI. Additional sources will be needed for O&M. Public versus Private Funding 100% 90%

Capital

80%

Private

70%

Public

60%

O&M

50%

Private Public

40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Brooklyn Millennium Discovery HighHigh LineLine Brooklyn Bridge Park Millennium ParkDiscovery GreenFountainFountain Square Bridge Park Park Square Green

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MAKING IT REAL| Meeting the O&M funding need (~$250k/acre) is likely to require layered funding approach.

General Fund/Bond

Special Levy

BID Charge /Bond

POPS

Real Estate Proceeds

Food & Beverage

Events & Promotions

Parking Fees/Bond

Philanthropy

Corporate Sponsorship

501(c)(3)

Public HR&A Advisors, Inc.

Value Capture

Earned Income

Private Charlotte Rail Trail | 36

MAKING IT REAL| In Mesa, funding constraints can support development activity that will strengthen the park and advance the vision.

Brooklyn Bridge Park HR&A Advisors, Inc. Image Credit: KlydeWarren Park

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MAKING IT REAL| At Brooklyn Bridge Park, residential and commercial development on park-owned land to provide ongoing revenue for operations.

One Brooklyn Bridge Park ~$2 million/year towards operations

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Pierhouse (under construction) ~$3 million/year towards operations

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MAKING IT REAL| Value capture can support public space / downtown activation while providing a stable long-term funding stream.

Tax Increment Financing

Special Assessment District

Sales Tax Allocation

On-site real estate development

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MAKING IT REAL| The Brooklyn Bridge Park story is relevant to Mesa.

Tax Increment Financing

Special Assessment District

Sales Tax Allocation

On-site real estate development

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MAKING IT REAL| After public and philanthropy, earned income is a viable secondary funding source (30%-50% max). Earned income supports activation.

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MAKING IT REAL| Project implementation will require a range of capacities over time. Not all of these are resident in the Parks Department.

Construction & Development “Hard”

Capital Maintenance Routine O&M Security Management Earned Income Program Assemblage/disposition

“Soft”

Fundraising & Advocacy Programming

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Charlotte Rail Trail | 42

DOWNTOWN IMPLICATIONS| Again, public space is just one of a series of interventions required to realize the downtown vision.

Programming new frontiers

Commercial development

VIRTUOUS CYCLE OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT

Retail amenities HR&A Advisors, Inc.

Public realm & infrastructure

Residential development 43

DOWNTOWN IMPLICATIONS| A “housing first” strategy supports all subsequent steps in the “cycle.”

San Antonio Strategic Framework HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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DOWNTOWN IMPLICATIONS| A “housing first” strategy supports all subsequent steps in the “cycle.”

San Antonio Strategic Framework HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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DOWNTOWN IMPLICATIONS| New and enhanced retail/restaurant opportunities support a strong sense of place.

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Image credit: Colwell Shelor team

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DOWNTOWN IMPLICATIONS| New and enhanced retail/restaurant opportunities support a strong sense of place.

Downtown Greensboro Retail HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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DOWNTOWN IMPLICATIONS| Balance preservation and modernism for an environment that is appealing and authentic to Mesa.

The Menil Collection, Houston HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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DOWNTOWN IMPLICATIONS| Phasing should focus on key nodes, with a broadening geographic focus over time.

Investment Predictable housing incentives Management Planning & regulation

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DOWNTOWN IMPLICATIONS| A singular vision for can maximize benefits to all within the City Center and beyond.

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DOWNTOWN IMPLICATIONS| You can put lipstick on a pig!

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NEXT STEPS| Near-term actions can support the success of Mesa City Center.

Assemble public and private stakeholders to advise City Center throughout design, development, and implementation Develop a comprehensive downtown vision that can be sold to public & private partners over time Begin programming for activation

Begin to secure funds & capacities for implementation HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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MESA CITY CENTER Economic & Implementation Opportunity Assessment March 20, 2015

Multifamily Market: Mesa’s existing apartment stock is significantly less expensive than in other regional downtowns.

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DRAFT

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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY | Great downtowns support strong cities.

Population Growth in Central Business Districts, 1990-2010 119% 94% 75% 74%

66% 65%

59%

52%

44% 43% 41% 39% 35%

30% 2%

CBD: definition is 1 mile radius of center point of CBD HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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Outcome: Shelby Farms Park has an established brand and community of advocates poised to implement the first phase of the Master Plan.

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Charlotte Rail Trail | 56

Activation

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DOWNTOWN IMPLICATIONS| Strengthen and enhance the street grid throughout the square mile.

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4.  Fully'ac*vate'downtown’s' unique,'historic(building(stock'

Context

Destination for culture & entertainment

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Unique building stock at core of its retail culture

Growing residential presence

Context Poor building conditions are greatest barrier to reducing vacancies Rehabilita)on,of,building,with,significant,capital,needs, Net(Opera5ng(Income(

'$150,000'' '$100,000'' '$50,000'' '$=''''

1'

2'

3'

4'

5'

6'

7'

8'

9'

10'

11'

12'

13'

14'

15'

16'

17'

18'

19'

20'

'$(50,000)' '$(100,000)' '$(150,000)'

Years(

Cash Flow Key Assumptions:

$150,000 down payment

Loan repayment

9,000 SF building - Ground floor retail - 4 2BR apartments $750,000 renovation

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- Retail :$70/SF - Apartments: $90/SF

2011

Recommendations 1. Strengthen building & fire codes; increase fines 2. Expand programs targeted to new businesses – Increase DGI facade grant to cover all fit-out upgrades, to a cap of $20,000

2013

– Provide business planning support 3. Establish incentives for building renovation projects – Facilitate access to capital to reduce effective project costs up to 15% – Provide one-stop technical support

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Benefit Scenario:

City funds 20-building program for owner rehabilitation and tenant fit-out over 5 years

Cost:

Owner $100,000

Tenant Fit-Out + $20,000 =

Annual benefits: Property Tax Sales Tax $3,000 + $17,000 Break-even: 15 years

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=

1 building 20 buildings $120,000 $2.4 million 1 building 20 buildings $20,000 $400,000

MAKING IT REAL| Public space must be integrated into a connected neighborhood fabric and supported by active park edges.

HR&A Advisors, Inc. Image credit: Colwell Shelor team

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MAKING IT REAL| Public space must be integrated into a connected neighborhood fabric and supported by active park edges.

HR&A Advisors, Inc. Image credit: Colwell Shelor team

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