
2 minute read
In this recession, it’s the tail end set of kids starting work who aren’t alright
from Wednesday 1 February 2023
by cityam
and the incessant ping of the NHS test and trace app (yes, we all have PTSD).
IF YOU needed further proof that people would rather put things off than avoid last-minute stress, you need look no further than the HMRC website briefly crashing yesterday, the last day to file self-assessment tax returns.
Our habit of delaying the worst, unfortunately, extends towards Britain’s employment dilemma.
If you’ve listened to any speech by Jeremy Hunt or Rishi Sunak over the last 99 days, you’ll have heard them boast about record low unemployment. And they are right: in the third quarter of last year, unemployment was at 3.6 per cent. The last time it came close to that was in the same period of 2019, and before that, in 1973. For the last decade, it has been comfortably above 4 per cent.
As much as Hunt and Sunak want to rest on their laurels, they know there’s a problem; that’s why they are trying to get the over 50s getting back into work. Of course, the pension is going up with inflation, salaries aren’t.
Unemployment figures don’t count those who have left the labour market, either because they are sick or retired early or in education (or perhaps buying into the “house girl/boyfriend” trend on Tik Tok and if you are, I don’t blame you).
During the pandemic, there was much hand wringing over the futures of people graduating from university and starting their careers: there were fewer jobs, fewer internships, less work experience, and where there were these opportunities, they were based almost entirely on remoteworking, hampering young people’s opportunities to progress in their careers.
In recessions, people starting their first jobs tend to have the most “economic scarring” - jargon for stunted prospects and salaries.
But the pandemic wasn’t just any recession. The economy shrunk almost in an instant and then, as lockdowns were lifted, swelled, like one of those puffer fish when under attack.
This meant those either just starting work or looking for work were able to recover quickly, as the number of job vacancies grew rapidly. It created the current problem we have - the opposite of unemployment - which is a tight labour market, slumped productivity and politicians pushing halfbaked plans to get your dad back to work.
Thanks to the rise in vacancies, the job market was competitive and those at the start of their careers could compete for better jobs, and companies, reluctant to hire older workers, were fighting for them. As a report published last week by the Institute for Fiscal Studies found: yes, the kids are alright. A glimmer of good news.
But as with everyone piling in to do their tax return at the same time, we’ve delayed the worst. This would be firmly labelled as “declinism” if you’re Jeremy Hunt, but it is also pragmatism. Again, just ask those trying to hit refresh on HMRC, ignoring a problem doesn’t make it go away.
The problem is the younger cohort of Generation Z: the kids who were sitting their A-Levels during the pandemic, the ones whose exams marks were bungled by Gavin Williamson’s formula to determine their grades and the ones who missed out on spots at university as a record number of people achieved A* and A grades.
Or they are the ones who spent much of their university career learning remotely either at home with their parents or worse, locked in student halls plagued with Covid-19 cases