[New] Russia: EU to Propose Investment Ban in Russia's Mining Sector in Next Sanctions Package

The European Commission for the first time proposed banning new investments in Russia's mining sector in the bloc's forthcoming ninth sanctions package on Russia since the war in Ukraine began.

Why It Matters: Targeting Russia's mineral extraction industries will put upward pressure on global metals prices and threaten a key source of Russian government revenue in the long run. The commission has previously avoided targeting Russia's mining sector specifically to avoid disrupting global supply chains and fueling inflation. The new sanctions will be the subject of intense negotiations and will likely include derogations for certain minerals, such as titanium, palladium and nickel, for which the European Union cannot quickly find alternative suppliers because of Russia's dominant position in the market.

Peru: President Dissolves Congress, Congress Votes to Impeach President

The Peruvian armed forces have declared that they oppose President Pedro Castillo's Dec. 7 call for the temporary dissolution of Congress in a bid to convene a new Congress in addition to other stipulations including rule by decree until new congressional elections occur, a restructuring of the judiciary and the establishment of a state of emergency.

Why It Matters: The armed forces will enforce Congress' impeachment of Castillo as opposed to Castillo's measures to rule by decree, signaling that Castillo is unlikely to continue as president. Instead, the more popular Vice President Dina Boluarte will likely become president, but could face political backlash for her association with Castillo. In another potential scenario, Boluarte could resign, which would lead Congress to take over until new presidential elections are called. Whatever the outcome, Peru will almost certainly face widespread disruptive demonstrations and extreme market volatility in the coming weeks.

Japan: Fighter Jets Arrive in Philippines as Part of Air Force Exchange

The Japanese Air Self Defense Force landed two F-15 fighter jets in the Philippines as part of an air force exchange program. The two countries are currently discussing a Visiting Forces Agreement, which would allow the Japanese Self Defense Force to use military bases in the Philippines.

Why It Matters: For Japan, this is a major milestone in repairing relations with formerly colonized nations and in gaining access to further military bases in the region. For the Philippines, this exchange is a step in opposition to Chinese security interests. As a result, China will likely offer economic incentives to entice the Philippines to rethink and minimize future security actions, for example by downsizing the upcoming Visiting Forces Agreement with Japan.