[New] GLOBAL SITUATION REPORT

Why It Matters: The planned route will be the first major regional connectivity project to test the Afghan Taliban's ability to keep critical projects secure. Apart from threats from Islamic State militants in Afghanistan, border conflicts between Afghanistan and Pakistan will threaten the project's implementation.

Ukraine: Half of Ukraine's Critical Electricity Infrastructure Damaged

According to Ukraine's Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, around 50% of Ukraine's critical electricity infrastructure has been damaged and some has been totally destroyed.

Why It Matters: Russia's campaign against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure will lead to an increasingly dire humanitarian situation as colder temperatures sweep the country, which will likely prompt more Ukrainians to flee westward toward the European Union. However, the campaign remains unlikely to change Ukraine's stance in the war, despite claims from Russian officials to the contrary. Even so, the damage caused by the strikes will increase the cost of stabilizing Ukraine's economy and helping the country rebuild, which Russia hopes will fuel war fatigue in the West.

Peru

Less than two years after taking office, Peru's president has been impeached and detained by authorities after he tried to dissolve Congress ahead of a scheduled vote to oust him.

China

New COVID-19 management measures significantly ease burdens on individuals and businesses, boosting economic prospects and stemming the immediate risk of renewed lockdowns and protests, though they could reemerge over the next year.

South Africa

The governing African National Congress (ANC) told party members to reject a South African advisory panel's findings that President Ramaphosa — once lauded as the ''anti-corruption president — may have violated the constitution at an upcoming parliamentary vote.

Uk

The United Kingdom’s Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish regional parliament does not have the authority to pass a bill organizing an independence referendum in Scotland.

Uzbekistan : Tashkent Skeptical of Russia's 'Tripartite Gas Union' Proposal

Uzbekistan's energy minister responded to a Russian proposal for a "gas union" including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia by saying the government would not agree to any political conditions that would jeopardize its national interests.

Why It Matters: Uzbekistan's skepticism toward the idea is in line with Kazakhstan's and reflects Central Asian states' fear that Moscow could use any increased economic dependence on Russia to secure political concessions. This fear has grown following Russia's use of natural gas supplies in energy blackmail attempts against European states in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

EU : Bloc Includes Croatia in Schengen Area, Blocks Romania and Bulgaria

The interior ministers of the European Union member states voted to include Croatia in the bloc's passport-free travel zone, the Schengen area, but Austria and the Netherlands blocked the accession of Romania and Bulgaria.

Why It Matters: Schengen area membership brings significant economic benefits to the member countries because the lack of border controls accelerates the movement of goods across borders. It also simplifies the movement of tourists and workers, as residents in the Schengen area do not need visas to move within it.

Argentina : Protests Likely After Vice President Found Guilty of Corruption

Argentine Vice President and former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was found guilty of fraud and sentenced to six years in prison, as well as banned from holding public office.

Why It Matters: Kirchner currently has immunity as vice president and is likely to launch an appeal process (which could take years), meaning she is unlikely to serve time in prison in the near term. However, mass protests are likely to occur in the capital of Buenos Aires and possibly in other major cities in the coming days, and the largest protests are likely to be launched by the pro-Kirchner Everybody's Front (Frente de Todos) coalition. Protests could include violent clashes between opposing protesters and between protesters and security forces.

Libya

Eastern Mediterranean countries will seek to exploit Libya's internal disputes to further their own causes, ultimately complicating political unification in Libya and potentially triggering more oil blockades in the future.

Israel

Israel will increase civilian and intelligence aid to Ukraine as its rival Iran increases military support for Russia, feeding into the deterioration of overall Russo-Israeli ties that could result in economic and political retaliation. Northern Ireland

The U.K. government's decision to delay a regional election in Northern Ireland to March or April gives London more time to reach a compromise with Brussels on reforming the Northern Ireland protocol, but significant obstacles remain and a trade war is still possible.

Brazil

Left-wing candidate and former president Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva won Brazil's hotly contested presidential runoff with 50.9% of the vote — narrowly beating out incumbent right-wing candidate Bolsonaro.