Housing market issues executive summary

Executive Summary Population and Housing in Cornwall and Isles of Scilly A think piece for CIoS LEP 14/11/2016 The CIoS LEP commissioned Robin Miller of Understanding Data to produce evidence and discussion papers around housing market issues1 facing the areas.

Robin Miller works nationally supporting a wide range of clients around economic analysis, housing market issues and demographic change. Based in Cornwall, Robin has over 25 years’ experience in these matters.

This has been delivered in three parts, Part 1

Discussion Paper Cornwall

Part 2

Discussion Paper Isles of Scilly

Part 3

Cornwall Evidence resource.

The evidence presented included a bespoke and unique analysis of over 40,000 house sales between 2011 and 2016.

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These will be available at : http://www.cioslep.com/

This paper highlights key evidence messages, Parts 1 and 2 put these in context and discuss the implications for the LEP. A short summary of these issues is also included in this summary.

Cornwall Key Evidence An ageing population would, left unchecked, have a significant impact on the future make up of labour force. Net migration to Cornwall is still working age in the majority but a balance of population change (workforce) and jobs is still needed to ensure that future expectations of job (and productivity) growth will be met. This is a key challenge for the LEP. Some clear shifts have been experienced in the age structure of net migration in Cornwall. This has been in part, clearly influenced by the level of sustained investment in HE/FE, infrastructure and student places. These interventions had direct impact on the flows in and out of Cornwall of younger people.

Tenure shift There is less owner occupation and more private renting but it is important to consider variations that exist across Cornwall. Equal emphasis should be placed on supporting all types of tenure, renting (social and private) and owned (as well as mixes in size, design etc.) This is key where LEP investment unlocks future housing developments. This type of housing provision (private renting) is often strongly linked to employment related moves, and there is a need to develop better understanding of private sector rental market values, churn and expectations around size location etc.

Clear range of house price sales achieved. This is not as simple as “no one can afford� to buy a house. Prices in coastal areas and for larger properties, and/or larger properties with views are high but there has been a clear range of sales across all areas. This challenges several perceptions about the local housing market.

There will be further population and housing growth in Cornwall. However, this is not likely to be evenly distributed. There is a need for the LEP to consider impacts and opportunities for economic growth as a driver for both population and housing. This is particularly true of the future role and function, and future commuting patterns of Truro.

Isles of Scilly Population Change Population decline represents a very real threat. There has already been a significant ageing of the population of the Isles of Scilly, that is likely to exacerbate this.

This has seen the proportion of people aged over 65 go from 18% in 2001 to 26% in 2014. The proportion of the working age population has fallen as a proportion over this period, but held constant numerically.

Depopulation isn’t an abstract concept; it has already happened on a small scale and the off islands have seen low population growth for several decades.

This issue has major implications for the future workforce, and the viability of key services and facilities on the islands.

Cornwall Discussion Points Distribution, scale and mix. The LEP can play a major role in shaping the vision and opportunities for individual places across Cornwall. This in turn, will have a major impact in future levels of both the scale and location of physical growth, houses, services, workspace, infrastructure.

This will probably require difficult choices, as not everywhere can grow at the same rate, and thus, a linked challenge for the LEP will be to ensure that the benefits of some this investment and physical growth are shared, to places, neighbourhoods and Economic Opportunities. Current growth levels will see increases in the population, jobs, and houses for Cornwall at significant levels. The LEP can be very clear about the benefits of economic led housing growth.

There is also a strong case to consider the very clear economic opportunities of the current 50,000 + housing target to 2030 within Cornwall. This could be from seeking to provide support to retain and develop spend associated with finance, maintenance and improvement as local as possible, through to targeted investments to for example, the manufacture, distribution and installation of solar panels on this increased amount of housing stock.

Different Plans for the future? Cornwall has been growing at broadly consistent levels since the 1960’s and the opening of the Tamar road Bridge. The LEP Board can take a clear view on whether some of the inclusion and economic underperformance issues that is seeks to tackle would be better addressed by taking a different and a longer term view of the future.

This could be through, for example considering the economic benefits of new settlements, as a different model to improve productivity and to provide essential public services and community facilities.

This in turn would allow for a different narrative overall, on growth and infrastructure requirements over a longer period, say for 50 yrs. +. Currently strategic planning in its broadest sense has a 20-yr. horizon, but tends to work on shorter implementation timescales.

Capture and reuse land value? Value capture is an umbrella term for mechanisms that harness property value uplift, where “the agency responsible for the development of [the] infrastructure captures part of the financial benefits gained by land developers or the community at large.

The public sector needs to be smarter in capturing the increased land value generated by growth and development for the direct benefit of the local community. There is an increasingly urgent need to address this issue, not just because of pressure on providing the infrastructure that is needed to support new economic or housing

growth, but also as a way of involving and communicating the direct benefits of this growth for local communities.

The LEP should consider the appropriateness and most practical mechanisms for this approach to future developments in Cornwall.

RM/UD/24.11.16 rmiller@understandingdata.co.uk