Risk Profile key messages

CLIMATE The climate projections (2050-2100) considered in this risk profile (RCP 8.5) foresee a marked increase in temperature in UR Tanzania, especially in the final part of the century (2071-2095) when it could reach over three degrees at the country scale. While highly uncertain, the rainfall totals are also expected to increase by on average 50 mm per year at country scale, with very distinctive patterns in different climatic areas.

FLOODS The average of 45.000 people affected per year under current climate conditions is projected to increase considerably in the future. Taking into account both climate projections and the population increase, the average affected people per year would increase more than four times (above 200.000 people). The coastal area contains the most affected regions, in both present and projected climate conditions.

Average Annual Loss due to floods is estimated to be just under 28 million USD on average in the present, while it is projected to be over 40 million USD in the future. The most affected sectors are agriculture, services and transport.

An increased frequency of both frequent and extreme events under projected climate conditions is expected: a loss of 100 million USD occurs on average every 100 years in the current climate, while in future the same loss would occur on average every 25 years.

DROUGHTS On average, almost 4.8 million people are estimated to be directly affected by drought per year. Some districts in Tabora and Shinyanga regions are a hotspot. The situation would worsen under projected climate conditions, where 12 million people are estimated to be directly affected if population growth is also accounted for.

Drought risk is projected to decrease in the western tropical savanna areas, but increase in the northern arid areas and the southern parts of the country.

More than 20% of livestock is currently exposed to risk and is projected to reach close to 40% in the projected climate. Drought risk for livestock is also expected to worsen in the arid areas and in the southern regions of UR Tanzania.

Average annual economic losses in agriculture due to drought is estimated at around 140 million USD under current climate conditions. These would more than double under projected climate conditions, if no adaptation measures were implemented.