Risk Profile key messages

CLIMATE The climate projections (2050-2100) considered in this risk profile (RCP 8.5) foresee a huge increase in temperature in Angola: especially in the final part of the century (2071-2095), when it would reach 4 degrees at the country scale. No significant changes in rainfall totals are foreseen at the country level.

FLOODS The average value of 25,000 people affected per year in the current climate conditions does not vary if only the climate variations are considered. Taking into account both climate projections and the population increase, however, the average affected people per year would increase more than 4 times (above 100,000 people). Cunene is one of the most affected provinces, in both present and projected climate conditions.

Average Annual Loss due to floods is estimated on average to be just under 100 million USD* in the present and projected climate. Most affected sectors are housing and agriculture.

The increased frequency of extreme events under projected climate conditions: a loss of 125 million USD occurs on average every 200 years in current climate conditions, while in future the same loss would occur on average every 20 years.

DROUGHTS On average almost 1.9 million people are estimated to be directly affected by drought per year. Cunene Province is a hotspot. The situation would worsen significantly under projected climate conditions, where 7.9 million people are estimated to be directly affected if population growth is also accounted for.

Drought risk would increase across the country, including eastern and northern regions.

More than 40% of livestock is currently exposed to risk and would be close to 70% under projected climate conditions. Drought risk for livestock is also expanding eastward and northward.

Average annual economic losses in agriculture due to drought is estimated to be about 100 million USD* under current climate conditions. These and would increase 7 times under projected climate conditions, if no adaptation measures are implemented.

Agriculture production losses would cause a decrease in available food energy supply equivalent to around 3 million potentially fed people.

Hydroelectric losses (deficit compared to current average production) would increase threefold under projected conditions: respectively from above 30 to almost 100 million USD.*

* This risk profile considers prices and exchange rate USD/AOA (United States Dollar / Angolan Kwanza) of 2015.