0 2OLYHLUD 9 6DQWRV 0HPEHU ,((( 'HSDUWPHQW RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI $YHLUR 3RUWXJDO ^PULHP YVDQWRV`#PHF XD SW
$57,*2 7®&1,&2
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
, ,1752'8&7,21 7KH 3RUWXJXHVH 5RERWLFV 2SHQ )HVWLYDO 1DFLRQDO GH 5REÂ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
,, +$5':$5( $1' &20387$7,21$/ 6<67(0 )LJXUH $XWRQRPRXV 'ULYLQJ FRPSHWLWLRQ DUHD
7KHUH DUH HVVHQWLDOO\ WKUHH PDLQ SDUDGLJPV WR SHUIRUP DXWRQRPRXV QDYLJDWLRQ DORQJ WKH URDG OLNH WUDFN RGRPHWULF LQHUWLDO RU JOREDO UHIHUHQFLQJ PHWKRGV OLQH IROORZLQJ WHFKQLTXHV RU ILQDOO\ IROORZLQJ WKH WUDFN LWVHOI LQVWHDG RI OLQHV 2GRPHWULF DQG LQHUWLDO PHWKRGV UHTXLUH D PRGHO RI WKH HQYLURQPHQW DQG LV QRW HDVLO\ H[WHQVLEOH WR JHQHUDO FDVHV EHVLGHV WKH IDFW RI FXPXODWLYH
> @
UREËWLFD
)RU WKH VDNH RI HDVLHU FRPSUHKHQVLRQ RI WKH RYHUDOO QDYLJDWLRQ DQG SURFHVVLQJ V\VWHP D EULHI GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH HQWLUH VHW XS LV QRZ JLYHQ 7KH URERW QDPHG $WODV LV IDLUO\ PHWHU ORQJ SHU FP ZLGH SRVVHVVHV WUDFWLRQ ZKHHOV FRXSOHG ZLWK D PHFKDQLFDO GLIIHUHQWLDO JHDU DQG XVHV DQ $FNHUPDQ VWHHULQJ V\VWHP 7ZR ZLGH DQJOH FDPHUDV o ILHOG YLHZ HDFK SOXV D WKLUG RQH GHGLFDWHG WR WUDIILF OLJKW SURFHVVLQJ IXOILO WKH YLVLRQ KDUGZDUH DQG DUH )LUHZLUH ,((( FRPSOLDQW 7KH ORZ OHYHO FRQWURO LV DFKLHYHG E\ D GLVWULEXWHG V\VWHP EDVHG RQ 3,& PLFURFRQWUROOHUV ZKLFK LQWHUIDFH PRWRUV DQG RWKHU DFFHVVRU\ SHULSKHUDOV DQG WKHUH LV D FHQWUDO V\VWHP EDVHG RQ D ODSWRS
$57,*2 7®&1,&2
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
5()(5(1&(6 > @ / $OPHLGD - $]HYHGR & &DUGHLUD 3 )RQVHFD 3 /LPD ) 5LEHLUR 9 6DQWRV )HVWLYDO 1DFLRQDO GH 5REÂWLFD z 52%27,&$ 5REÂWLFD Qo o 7ULP SS ,661
> @ $OPHLGD / $]HYHGR - &DUGHLUD & &RVWD 3 )RQVHFD 3 /LPD 3 5LEHLUR ) 6DQWRV 9 0RELOH 5RERW &RPSHWLWLRQV )RVWHULQJ $GYDQFHV LQ 5HVHDUFK 'HYHORSPHQW DQG (GXFDWLRQ LQ 5RERWLFV 3URF RI WKH WK 3RUWXJXHVH &RQIHUHQFH
RQ $XWRPDWLF &RQWURO &21752/2 2FWREHU *XLPDU¶HV 3RUWXJDO SS > @ 3 $IRQVR - $]HYHGR & &DUGHLUD % &XQKD 3 /LPD 9 6DQWRV &KDOOHQJHV DQG 6ROXWLRQV LQ DQ $XWRQRPRXV 'ULYLQJ 0RELOH 5RERW &RPSHWLWLRQ 3URF RI WKH
WK 3RUWXJXHVH &RQIHUHQFH RQ $XWRPDWLF &RQWURO &21752/2 /LVERD > @ * %HFFDUL 6 &DVHOOL ) =DQLFKHOOL $ &DODILRUH 9LVLRQ EDVHG /LQH 7UDFNLQJ DQG 1DYLJDWLRQ LQ D 6WUXFWXUHG (QYLURQPHQW ,((( ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6\PSRVLXP RQ
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
&RPSXWDWLRQDO ,QWHOOLJHQFH LQ 5RERWLFV DQG $XWRPDWLRQ &,5$ ~ > @ +DL %R =KDQJ .XL <XDQ 6KX 4L 0HL 4XLQJ 5XL =KRX 9LVXDO 1DYLJDWLRQ RI DQ $XWRPDWHG *XLGHG 9HKLFOH %DVHG RQ 3DWK 5HFRJQLWLRQ 3URFHHGLQJV
RI WKH 7KLUG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ DQG F\EHUQHWLFV 6KDQJDL $XJXVW > @ ' $ 3RPHUOHDX 1HXUDO 1HWZRUN 3HUFHSWLRQ IRU 0RELOH 5RERW *XLGDQFH
.OXZHU $FDGHPLF 3XEOLVKHUV > @ 5 &DQFHOD 0 1HWD 0 2OLYHLUD 9 6DQWRV $7/$6 ,,, 8P 5REÄ FRP 9LV¶R 2ULHQWDGR SDUD 3URYDV HP &RQGX¸¶R $XWÂQRPD 5REÂWLFD Qo SS ,661
UREËWLFD > @