COVID-19 - The UK's roadmap to 'normality'

COVID-19: THE UK’S ROADMAP TO ‘NORMALITY’ Cicero/AMO February 2021

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COVID-19: THE UK’S ROADMAP TO ‘NORMALITY’ Another year, another roadmap, but this one is hopefully the last.

OVERVIEW: On Monday, the UK Government published its roadmap out of lockdown for England (see here), followed shortly by the Scottish Government’s own plans (see here). Wales published a reduced plan last week (see here), and Northern Ireland will set out its plans on 1 March (see here). The below paper sets out the different timescales and approaches taken by each of the devolved nations.

ANALYSIS: The Prime Minister has faced intense scrutiny for his handling of COVID-19 over the past year. Seen by some to have been too slow to act, his claim that the Government had done “everything it could” to prevent deaths was derided in many quarters. Perceptions of his performance reached a particular low immediately prior to Christmas, when a last-minute U-turn saw Christmas plans cancelled across the country ahead of the introduction of a third national lockdown in England. Questions were even raised as to whether he would still be the Prime Minister come local elections in May. But there has been a reversal in fortunes for Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party, driven largely by the extremely successful vaccine rollout in the UK thus far. The contrast with the sluggish rollout in the EU also helps bolster the Government’s ‘merits of Brexit’ rhetoric. The new roadmap unveiled by the PM on 22 February does suggest he has learned some of the lessons of last year, with ‘gradual’ and ‘cautious’ the key words, rather than bombastic oratory around “sending the virus packing”. While this has inevitably concerned those backbench MPs who want to see a more rapid reopening of the economy, such opposition has been relatively muted.

However, given the short half-life of repeated plans, roadmaps, tiered systems, and economic statements over the past 12 months, the questions on everyone’s mind must be: why is this one different? And will it make it into April, never mind past Easter?

The relationship between the UK Government and the devolved nations has been particularly interesting throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, it will likely never be the same again. Despite the UK Government originally refusing to acknowledge the different public health jurisdictions and respective devolved powers at the onset of the crisis, the public has since seen devolution in action like never before.

The growing awareness and impact of devolved decision making are at their most stark in Scotland where the perception of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s handling of COVID-19 varies drastically (and favourably) when compared against the Prime Minister’s. Regardless of the objective outcomes, which show Scotland faring slightly ‘better’ in terms of public health impact, the perception is clear. This has played a part in the increased support for Scottish independence over the past year. Will this rise continue? Sturgeon’s roadmap, or ‘strategic framework’ is more cautious than even the Prime Minister’s approach, but explicitly leaves wiggle-room to expedite the easing of restrictions dependent on data.

Beyond the politics, there is a clear desire across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland for this exit to be as cautious as need be to avoid reentering any kind of further lockdown over the coming year.

Euan Ryan Account Manager euan.ryan@cicero-group.com 2

COMPARISON OF DEVOLVED NATION ROADMAPS Please note, all dates included in the respective roadmaps, and in the comparison table below, are indicative.

England

Scotland

Wales

Northern Ireland

Overview: What has been published?

Comprehensive roadmap that sets out indicative dates and timelines for the reopening of the economy and society.

Strategic framework for decision making, alongside an approximate update on expected timings for reopening.

Initial plan with an approximate idea of timelines to be updated periodically.

Roadmap to be published on 1 March.

Key quote

“There is no credible route to a Zero Covid Britain or indeed a Zero Covid World and we cannot persist indefinitely with restrictions that debilitate our economy, our physical and mental well-being, and the life-chances of our children.

And that is why it is so crucial that this roadmap should be cautious but also irreversible.

We are setting out on what I hope and believe is a one way road to freedom. And this journey is made possible by the pace of the vaccination programme.” Prime Minister Boris Johnson, 22.02.2021

“It is by being cautious, careful and patient for the next period - while the vaccination programme has time to progress - that we will make that route as safe and sustainable as possible. Taking the brakes off too quickly will allow the virus to get ahead of us again and put our progress out of lockdown into reverse.”

“We are seeing encouraging green shoots as we move into spring, with better weather and brighter days ahead, coronavirus cases falling and our amazing vaccine roll-out continuing at pace. We have seen, however, time and again the world over, just how quickly the situation can deteriorate in a matter of weeks. But, if we work together to keep Wales safe, we will see more elements of normal life returning.” First Minister Mark Drakeford, 19.02.2021

“We are now at a time for patience and persistence.

The Executive has reluctantly accepted the analysis from our health advisors that the restrictions will need to be in place for four more weeks.

I know that that will come as a disappointment, but it is a pragmatic and sensible approach, and it is important to be clear that we will only maintain restrictions which are proportionate and necessary.”

First Minister Arlene Foster, 18.02.2021

“In short, our current position I would summarise as extremely positive and promising - and we should all take heart from that. But it is still quite precarious and if we are to sustain our progress, we do need to exercise care and caution.” First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, 23.02.21

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England Tests and indicators to determine progression through roadmap

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Indicative next steps

• • • •

Scotland

The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully.

Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.

Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS. The assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern.

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Step One: 8 & 29 March Step Two: 12 April Step Three: 17 May Step Four: 21 June

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Social distancing

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•

17 May: Advice on social distancing between friends and family expected to be updated.

21 June: All legal limits on social contact may be removed.

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Wales

Transmission is controlled.

Sufficient public health and health system capacities are in place.

Outbreak risks are minimised in high vulnerability settings.

Preventive measures are established in workplaces.

Manage the risk of exporting and importing cases.

Communities have a voice, are informed, engaged and participatory in the transition.

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Phase One: 22 February Phase Two: 15 March – Further information on easing of restrictions also expected.

Phase Three: 5 April Phase Four (Return to variable Levels approach): 26 April

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Protective measures such as physical distancing expected “for some months yet”.

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• •

Northern Ireland

Existing alert levels framework, available here.

Data on the prevalence of new variants in Wales.

Vaccine data and local intelligence.

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Details to be published in decision-making framework on 1 March.

Next Review: 12 March

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Decision making framework: 1 March Review of restrictions: 18 March Current end date for lockdown: 1 April

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No further information.

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No further information.

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England Socialising & gatherings

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Work

Schools

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Scotland

8 March: Outdoor gatherings permitted with own household, support bubble, or one other person.

29 March: Outdoor gatherings permitted with six people or one other household, including in private garden.

17 May: Outdoor gatherings of up to 30 people and indoor gatherings of up to six people or one other household expected to be permitted.

21 June: All legal limits on social contact may be removed.

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Work from home guidance expected to remain in place until the review of social distancing to be completed before 21 June.

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8 March: Schools and colleges to reopen for all students.

5 April (Easter Holiday): Government to review return for Higher Education students that do not need to take part in practical teaching.

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•

•

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•

Wales

Northern Ireland

15 March: Outdoor meetings of four people from two households permitted.

5 April: Six people from two different households to be able to meet outside.

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20 February: Four people from two households allowed to meet for exercise, excluding private gardens.

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8 March: Outdoor gatherings expected to increase to ten people from no more than two households.

Work from home wherever possible.

No further information on change to existing guidance.

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No further information.

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No further information.

22 February: Full-time return for pre-school children and those in Primary 1-3. Part-time return for senior pupils in S4-6, on a limited basis.

15 March: More pupils will return to school, with non-contact outdoor group sport for 12- to 17-year-olds permitted.

5 April: Final phase of school reopening expected to take place.

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22 February: 3- to 7-yearolds begin phased return to school, along with certain vocational students.

15 March: Dependent on review of restrictions, older pupils could begin returning.

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8 March: Pre-school, nursery and primary schoolchildren from P1-3 to return to education.

22 March: Secondary pupils in years 12 and 14 to return to school.

After Easter Break (April): Other years expected to return.

Of note, the Executive may reconsider whether it’s possible to allow all years to return on 8 March.

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England Nonessential retail

• •

Scotland

8 March: Non-essential retail to remain closed.

12 April: Non-essential retail expected to reopen for solo visits or with same household.

•

•

Wales

Northern Ireland

5 April: Essential retailers expanded slightly and click-and-collect resumes for non-essential retail.

26 April: Non-essential retail expected to reopen.

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15 March: Certain nonessential retail to potentially reopen, dependent on review of restrictions.

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8 March: ‘Click and collect’ shopping to be permitted.

Hospitality

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8 March: Remain closed.

12 April: Outdoor service expected to be permitted and table service required.

No ‘substantial meal’ rules.

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26 April: Hospitality expected to reopen.

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Not expected to reopen over the next six weeks.

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No further information.

Travel

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8 March: Stay-at-home guidance continues.

Travelling abroad not permitted.

29 March: Stay-at-home guidance removed but advised to minimise travel.

12 April: Advice to minimise travel remains but overnight stays away from home within UK expected to be permitted.

Report from Global Travel Taskforce to be published.

17 May: International travel may be permitted.

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5 April: ‘Stay at home’ requirement to be lifted.

No further information provided on the easing of strict travel restrictions in Scotland.

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No further information.

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No further information.

8 March: Exercise with household or one other person continues to be permitted.

29 March: Outdoor sport and leisure facilities to reopen.

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26 April: Leisure centres and gyms expected to reopen.

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20 February: Four people from two households allowed to meet for exercise, excluding private gardens.

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No further information.

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Exercise & leisure

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•

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England Exercise & leisure (cont.)

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Entertainment

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Personal care

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Scotland

Wales

Northern Ireland

12 April: Indoor leisure (but no saunas or steam rooms) expected to reopen for use individually or within household groups.

17 May: Adult sport and group classes expected to resume.

8 March: Premises remain closed.

12 April: Outdoor attractions such as zoos, drive-in cinemas and theme parks expected to reopen.

17 May: Indoor entertainment, such as museums and children’s play areas expected to reopen, as well as all remaining outdoor facilities.

21 June: All legal limits expected to be removed and nightclubs permitted to reopen.

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26 April: Entertainment venues expected to reopen.

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Talks ongoing over reopening of self-contained accommodation.

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No further information.

8 March: Close-contact services not permitted.

12 April: Hairdressers, salons and close contact services expected to reopen for solo visits or within household.

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26 April: Hairdressers expected to reopen.

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15 March: Hairdressers to potentially reopen, dependent on review of restrictions.

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No further information.

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England Life events

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Events

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Scotland

Wales

Northern Ireland

8 March: Weddings limited to 6 people. Funerals limited to 30.

12 April: Limit for weddings expected to rise from 6 to 15 people. Funerals limited to 30.

17 May: Limit for weddings expected to increase from 15 to 30 people. Funerals to remain at 30.

21 June: Legal limits expected to be removed.

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No further information.

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No further information.

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No further information.

8 March: Events remain banned.

12 April: Pilots for large events expected to be launched.

17 May: Events Research Programme will experiment with controlled indoor events of up to 1,000 people or 50% capacity, and outdoor events of 4,000 people or 50% capacity permitted.

21 June: Large events and theatre performances expected to be permitted.

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No further information.

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No further information.

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No further information.

GET IN TOUCH...

If you would like to speak to us about this document, please contact a member of the UK Public Affairs team below: Tom Frackowiak Managing Director - UK Public Affairs tom.frackowiak@cicero-group.com

Simon Fitzpatrick Head of UK Public Affairs simon.fitzpatrick@cicero-group.com 8