CHACR Conference 2023

CHACR

THE CHACR CONFERENCE

2023 Making sense of a confusing world 0930-1300 / 7 December 2023 Akehurst Hall, RMAS

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ABOUT CHACR The Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research (CHACR) exists to gather and present a wide range of views and perspectives to inform the British Army. It contributes to decisions concerning strategy, capability and force development and operations whilst challenging conventional wisdom and testing evolving concepts. We do this by conducting and sponsoring research and analysis (both in-house and through a wide network of associates and colleagues across the globe) into the enduring nature and changing character of conflict on land.

At the same time the CHACR is an active hub of scholarship, professional enquiry and debate to help to sustain and develop the British Army’s conceptual component of fighting power.

Importantly, CHACR acts not just as a champion for individual ‘soldier-scholars’, but the promotion of a ‘brains-based’ approach throughout the Army. In short, CHACR promotes the notion that it’s as important to ensure that the army is not out-thought as it is to ensure that it is not out-fought.

KEY SERVICES: l Commissioned research to support strategic planning, deployments, operations, projects, and senior level visits and talks. l Keynote events (conferences, lectures and debates) by internationally renowned experts to provide conceptual development, in-depth thinking and insight. l Formal and informal red-teaming and review to enable you to test your ideas and projects with leading experts; either in written form, wargame or in small roundtable discussions. The CHACR network can also source Army, national or international SMEs tailored to your requirements. l Bespoke briefings on specific countries or issues for operational, strategic or defence engagement purposes. l Mentoring and advice for Masters and PhD theses and academic and think tank placements. l Bringing CHACR to regional hubs across the UK to ensure as many of the Army as possible are able to access cutting edge insight and analysis in-person. l Support to Staff Rides by carefully selected history and war studies experts. l Defence engagement through visits to, and hosting of, foreign delegations and partnered research coordinated with Army communication and engagement priorities. CHACR provides a nuanced strategic communication messaging platform, neither military nor academic, it can gain insights and provide introductions not easily accessible by serving Army personnel. l The British Army Review, print and online articles. The journal of British military thought delivers high quality academic articles from across the Army and academia, supported by online and print commentaries, in-depth briefings, and summaries of global ideas. chacr.org.uk / info@chacr.org.uk

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PROGRAMME 0930

Opening remarks

Speaker

Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, Chief of the General Staff Maj Gen (Retd) Dr Andrew Sharpe, Director CHACR

0935-1050

Panel 1 – Geopolitical Perspectives in 2023

Chair

Prof Andrew Stewart, Head of Conflict Research CHACR

Panellists

China – Veerle Nouwens, IISS Middle East – Prof Jonathan Hill, KCL Russia – Dr Andrew Monaghan, CHACR Fellow United States – Prof Michael Neiberg, US Army War College

1050-1110

Break

1110-1230

Panel 2 – Trends to Watch in 2024

Chair

Prof Matthias Strohn, Head of Historical Analysis CHACR

Panellists

Artificial Intelligence – Prof Zena Wood, University of Exeter Climate Change – Dr Alex Tasker, University of Bristol Deterrence – Dr Nik Taylor, Dstl Non-State actors, terrorists and proxies – Dr Rajan Basra, ICSR

1230-1300

Closing remarks

Speaker

Rym Momtaz, IISS

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BIOGRAPHIES OPENING REMARKS MAJ GEN (RETD.) DR ANDREW SHARPE CBE Andrew is the Director of CHACR. Following a 34-year military career and nine operational tours he left the British Army as a Major General. After commanding at every level from Second Lieutenant to Brigadier he completed his time in uniform as the Director of DCDC. He is a senior mentor on the Army’s Generalship programme, has an MA in International Studies from King’s College London, and a PhD in the Strategic Leadership of International Intervention from Trinity College Cambridge.

PANEL I PROF ANDREW STEWART Andrew Stewart is CHACR’s Head of Conflict Research. An Honorary Professor at the Australian National University in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre and a Visiting Professor in King’s College London’s School of Security Studies, he was previously Director of Academic Studies at the Royal College of Defence Studies and Principal at the Australian War College. His research covers 20th century and contemporary conflict and he has published more than 30 books, co-edited books, book chapters and peer-reviewed and magazine articles. He is also a trustee for the Liddell Hart Centre for Military Archives and the Society for Military History.

PROF MICHAEL NEIBERG Michael Neiberg, a Senior Fellow in the Center for the Study of America and the West at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, is Professor of History in the Department of National Security Studies at the US Army War College in Carlisle, PA. He has been a Guggenheim fellow, a founding member of the Société Internationale d’Étude de la Grande Guerre, and a trustee of the Society for Military History.

VEERLE NOUWENS A Senior Research Fellow at the International Security Studies Department of the Royal United Services Institute, Veerle has a focus on geopolitical relations in the Asia-Pacific region. Her research interests include China’s foreign policy, cross-strait relations, maritime security and ASEAN. Previously, she worked for the European External Action Service at the Delegation of the European Union to Singapore’s Political, Press and Information Section.

DR ANDREW MONAGHAN Andrew is a CHACR Fellow, Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, and a Global Fellow of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C. He is the author of Power in Modern Russia: Strategy and Mobilisation (2017) and Dealing with the Russians (2019). His latest book is Russian Grand Strategy in an Era of Global Power Competition (2022).

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PROF JONATHAN HILL Professor Jonathan Hill is Director of the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King’s College London. He has published widely on the colonial and post-colonial histories of the countries of the Maghreb. His latest project focuses on sport and the French empire in Tunisia under the French protectorate. He is a member of the editorial advisory boards of The Middle East Journal, The Journal of North African Studies, and Libyan Studies – The Journal of the British Institute for Libyan and North African Studies.

PANEL II PROF MATTHIAS STROHN Professor Matthias Strohn is the Head of the Historical Analysis Programme at the CHACR and a Visiting Professor in Military Studies at the Humanities Research Institute at the University of Buckingham. An expert in the history of war in the 20th century, he has written and edited over 20 books and is a frequent commentator on military history and current military affairs. Matthias holds a commission in the German Army, and, with the rank of lieutenant colonel, is a member of the military attaché reserve, having served on the defence attaché staffs in London, Paris and Madrid.

PROF ZENA WOOD Professor Zena Wood is the Director of the Defence Data Research Centre, which aims to help the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, and the wider UK defence sector, overcome their data and AI related challenges. Zena’s background is in Computer Science with her research focusing on how we can derive value from datasets that would help us understand the impact of digital transformation within the Digital Economy and the Defence sector. She was a Fellow of the Alan Turing Institute between October 2021 and September 2023.

DR NIK TAYLOR Nicholas Taylor is a Senior Principal Analyst at Dstl, the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, where he leads research and analysis on deterrence, and other strategic effects. He has pioneered a new approach to the development of deterrence strategies, and now heads its application in UK Government and advises senior decision-makers. Nicholas conducts international research collaboration and directs a programme of academic engagement. Additionally, he currently leads studies on strategic culture and assessing deterrence effectiveness. Before joining Dstl, Nicholas worked in a defence consultancy and he began his career with a commission in the RAF.

DR ALEX TASKER Dr Alex Tasker is Senior Lecturer at the University of Bristol, a Research Associate at the Climate Change & (In)Security (CCI) project, and a recent ESRC Policy Fellow in National Security and International Relations. He is an interdisciplinary researcher working across social and natural sciences to understand human-animalenvironmental health in settings conflict, criminality, and displacement. Embedded within the Cabinet Office, Dr Tasker explored the use of new forms of evidence and expertise in a changing world, with a particular focus on climate, security and defence.

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DR RAJAN BASRA Rajan Basra is a Senior Research Fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and a post-doctoral researcher in the Department of War Studies, King’s College London. He researches how terrorists think and act, focusing on the terrorist threat in Europe, the relationship between crime and terrorism, and the role of prisons in radicalisation and recruitment. Dr Basra has presented his research at the United Nations Security Council, the European Council, and the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, and is a member of the Radicalisation Awareness Network.

CLOSING REMARKS RYM MOMTAZ A multiple Emmy award-winning journalist, Rym Momtaz joined the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in June 2022 after a 16-year journalism career. At the IISS she works on French foreign policy and security, the European response to the war in Ukraine and the transatlantic relationship. In parallel, she has been co-leading an 18-month long study on strategic competition in the Eastern Mediterranean that looks at geopolitical dynamics, defence cooperation and the impacts of energy discoveries in the region. A preview was launched in November 2023 and the study should be published in early 2024. Prior to the IISS she was Senior Correspondent in France for Politico Europe where, between 2019 and 2022, she covered Emmanuel Macron’s foreign and European policy, with unrivalled access.

NOTICES SECURITY In the case of a fire or another emergency, please make your way as directed to the rugby pitches.

Proceed straight out of Akehurst Hall across the Victory Building car park towards the bridge whilst Academy security staff deal with the situation.

FIRST AID AND EMERGENCIES Should there be a requirement for first aid please contact a member of the event team who will ensure a qualified individual will be able to assist. In the event of a more serious emergency a member of staff will contact the permanent Academy staff who will arrange an escort for the necessary emergency services.

POST-EVENT MEDIA CONTENT Following the event all panel discussions will be made available on Defence Connect.

SOCIAL MEIDA To get involved, follow us on X @CHACR_Camberley and use the #CHACRConf23 hashtag.

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FURTHER READING IN-DEPTH BRIEFING // #68 // NOVEMBER 23

As a Team Commander at 4 Ranger, Captain Ben Tomlinson conducted multinational training exercises alongside US and Jordanian Special Operations Forces. He is currently on secondment to CHACR as the Army Special Operations Brigade’s Visiting Fellow.

The Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research is the British Army’s think tank and tasked with enhancing the conceptual component of its fighting power. The views expressed in this In Depth Briefing are those of the author, and not of the CHACR, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Ministry of Defence or the British Army. The aim of the briefing is to provide a neutral platform for external researchers and experts to offer their views on critical issues. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. www.chacr.org.uk

ANNIVERSARY ANALYSIS

ASSESSING THE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OF THE RANGER REGIMENT

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N the 1st of December 2023, the UK’s Ranger Regiment will mark the second anniversary of its formation. Having been conceived in the 2021 Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, the Regiment is not intended to reach full operating capacity until 2025, but has, nonetheless, spent the first two years of its existence persistently engaged alongside a variety of international partners. In its first year alone, Ranger teams deployed to more than 60 countries and, since expanding engagement to entirely new spheres of influence, this pace has not let up.

As part of the Army Special Operations Brigade, the Ranger Regiment was intended, as the evolutionary successor to the Specialised Infantry Group,

to engage in the emergent competition between states and with non-state actors over international rules and norms. This so-called ‘systemic competition’ was predicted to “test the line between peace and war” through a variety of subversive means, such as economic statecraft, cyber-attacks, disinformation, and proxies.1 The Regiment was therefore raised to interdict such actions by conducting “special operations to train, advise and accompany partners in high threat environments” and, in doing so, would “project UK global influence and pre-empt and deter threats below the threshold of war as well as state aggression”.2 The evolution of the Army Special Operations Brigade and Ranger Regiment is, of course, an ongoing process. En route to their 2025 timeline, the Regiment seeks to establish, not only

CHACR COMMENTARY // NOVEMBER, 2023 BY: Maj Gen (retd) Dr Andrew Sharpe, Director CHACR

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FTER the First World War no-one really needed reminding to ‘remember’ what they had just been through.

The experiences of the men who had fought in the trenches of Flanders, at Mons, Ypres, Passchendaele, the Somme, Gallipoli, et al left them with memories that, quite frankly, they would rather do their best to move on from and forget.

Their families, back in Britain, had, almost every one of them, lost a relative – close or distant – and suffered the hardship of the straightened times that the war had brought. But whether combatant or bereaved there was a universal desire to remember happier times (and to strive for times happier still) and to remember what those no longer alongside them had gone through to preserve a national state-of-being that would permit the realisation of such happy times, without

its place in the British Army’s regimental precedence, but its own capabilities. However, as only the third regiment to be formed since 1945, the realisation of the Ranger concept has caused waves and faced its share of criticism from the corners of defence commentary.

Detractors have expressed reservations about the Regiment’s ‘special’ moniker, or the likelihood of ever reaching an ‘accompany’ or ‘enable’ capacity. These criticisms are rooted in valid uncertainty and worthy of address.

This article therefore intends to better understand and assess the development of the Ranger Cabinet Office Policy Paper, (2021), ‘Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, defence, Development and Foreign Policy.

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Anglim. Dr S., (2021), ‘Global Britain, Global Army? The Review and Land Warfare’, from The Integrated Review in Context: Defence and Security in Focus, King’s College London.

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“THE ‘REMEMBRANCE’ OF THE 1920S AND 30S GENERATION WAS OF THE HORRORS OF WAR AND THE DANGERS OF WARMONGERING – AND THUS BRED A MIXTURE OF SOMBRE PRIDE AND GRATITUDE FOR SACRIFICE ALONGSIDE AN AVERSION TO INTER-STATE CONFLICT.” interference or obstacle from outside. The first ‘Armistice Day’ acts of remembrance took place a year after the Armistice itself, led by the King and the French President at Buckingham Palace, with two minutes of silence being observed by them at 11 o’clock on Tuesday the 11th of November 1919. Thereafter, the remembrance of Armistice was solemnly observed, nationwide, every 11th of November. The ‘remembrance’ of the 1920s and 30s generation was of the horrors of war and the dangers of warmongering – and thus bred a mixture of sombre pride and gratitude for sacrifice alongside an aversion to interstate conflict. “Never again”.

But neither those memories, nor the conclusions that those memories fostered, were strong enough to prevent a repetition on an even grander scale.

Twenty years after the first Armistice Day Remembrance was observed, Britain, and the world, was back at war. And it was not until November 1939, just over two months after Britain had declared war on Germany again, that the notion of a ‘Remembrance Sunday’ was introduced. This change was made for purely pragmatic reasons – remembrance of the First War was not to be allowed to interfere with the productivity that would be required during the Second War, so the formal

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1 // IN-DEPTH BRIEFING // CHACR

CHACRDIGEST

DECEMBER 4th, 2023

#26

The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk

FIRST ARROW 3 OPERATIONAL USE The Israel-Hamas war is not just reshaping the Middle East, it is also a moment for some of Israel’s latest defence systems to be deployed for the first time. As Yehoshua Kalisky writes for the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, in early November Israel used its Arrow 3 system to intercept a ballistic missile in space. The missile had been fired by the Houthis in Yemen, but the Arrow 3 interceptor destroyed it long before it could reach its likely intended target, Eilat. Kalisky provides a useful overview of Israel’s multi-layered integrated air defence framework that comprises Patriot missiles, the Iron Dome [pictured above], the David’s Sling system and the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 [pictured right] systems.

U.S. Missile Defense Agency/ CC BY 2.0

AUTHOR

Picture: UK MOD © Crown copyright 2023

LEST WE FORGET

IS ISRAEL TOO RELIANT ON HIGH-TECH? Debates about how Hamas was able to conduct the devastating attack of 7th October are continuing. In a very useful piece for Foreign Policy, Franz-Sefan Gady argues that Israel’s fixation with technology may have contributed to its vulnerability, and could also negatively affect its performance in the ongoing war and thinking about post-war security arrangements in Gaza. While noting that hubris and a failed political strategy by Israel’s leadership clearly must be taken into account, Gady suggests that the high-tech surveillance systems put in place along the Gaza-Israel border may have contributed to a false sense of security, while missing signs that only human intelligence can effectively pick up on. He also warns that an ongoing doctrinal shift within the Israel Defence Forces – towards more reliance on technology and smaller boots-on-ground footprints – could create yet further, and potentially costly, single points of failure.

THE RISE OF ISRAEL’S VOLUNTEER ARMY Israel’s population has been highly mobilised since the 7th October attack, filling in roles largely vacated by the state as it shifts responsibilities to focus almost entirely on the conflict in Gaza. This article explains in detail the extent to which Israeli civil society has stepped in to create parallel institutions to allow the country to continue functioning; civic centres, relocation and rehousing offices, ad-hoc security organisations, and agricultural centres have all sprung up in order to replace the state, which has struggled to allocate resources adequately to respond to the level of displacement and societal dislocation placed upon Israel’s southern populations. As the war continues, Israeli societal resilience appears to be the glue holding life together.

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PLEASE GIVE YOUR FEEDBACK:

occasion – by then grown large – was to be observed on a Sunday, when all were resting from the labours of wartime effort. After that second global war, the scale, reach, destructiveness and suffering of which had dwarfed even the horrors of the first, experience of suffering in Britain was universal. In the late 40s and 50s, still eating rationed food, still recovering from a shattered economy, facing up to a huge change in national and international standing and influence, this new postwar generation had plenty to remember. The experience of hardship was now nationally universal: everyone had fought, suffered, lost lives, lost loved ones, seen horror and hardship and loss. For many of the older combatants, and their relatives, they had been through it twice.

‘Remembrance’ now came with the same sombre pride and sense of sacrifice and with a reinforced revulsion for the malevolence of

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