Cornerstone Government Affairs 2026 Midterm Election Analysis by Cornerstone Government Affairs

2026 MIDTERM ELECTION ANALYSIS What the results mean and what moves next

ELECTION BRIEFING

NOVEMBER 2026

GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS Control of Congress, the new gavels and who leads

Election Overview — Results

DEMOCRATS TAKE CONTROL OF THE 120TH CONGRESS Note: Results as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 4. Counting continues in 59 House races and two Senate races; final seat counts are TBD.

Senate:

120th Congress — Seat Count

FLIPPED TO DEMOCRATS C a lle d

Se a t C ount: 5 4 D – 4 4 R

Alaska and Mississippi remain uncalled.

D+7 Net Senate seats flipped to Democrats so far Outstanding races: 2 (MS & AK)

Senate

House

237

Democrats pick up 7 seats

House:

FLIPPED TO DEMOCRATS C a lle d

Se a t C ount: 2 3 7 D – 1 3 9 R

Democrats have flipped 29 seats and Republicans have flipped none; 59 races remain uncalled.

D+29

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Net House seats flipped to Democrats so far Outstanding races: 59 Democrats

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139

Republicans

Uncalled

Races That Mattered — Senate

DEMOCRATS WIN THE SENATE Note: Results as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 4. AP called the Senate for Democrats at 11:38 p.m. ET Nov. 3; Alaska and Mississippi remain uncalled. ?

The Math

ME VT

OK HI

Democratic Seats (20)

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Senate split so far (D–R)

Seats flipped to Democrats

Races still uncalled (Alaska, Mississippi)

Republican Seats (13)

54–44

No race in 2026 (15)

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Competitive seat (Cook Toss Up or Lean)

Confirmed flip (7)

? Uncalled race (2)

Races That Mattered

SENATE BATTLEGROUNDS, AT A GLANCE Note: Results as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 4. Senate margins are at least 54–44, while counting continues in Alaska and Mississippi.

ME Maine

JACKSON (D)

TUREK (D)

OH Ohio

BROWN (D)

HAMILTON (D)

Democratic Flip Democrat Troy Jackson defeated fiveterm Sen. Susan Collins (R), the top Republican on the Appropriations Committee.

Democratic Flip Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek (D) defeated three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), in a race defined by high gas and diesel prices in the agriculture powerhouse.

Democratic Flip Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is set to return to the Senate, after losing his seat in 2024. Brown defeated incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R) in a race focused on affordability and energy rates. Due to the special election, Sen. Brown will be up for re-election in 2028.

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Iowa

Kansas

Democratic Flip Kansans elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1932, ending a 94-year drought, with Hamilton upsetting incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R).

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Michigan

EL-SAYED (D)

Open Seat Progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed will become the first Muslim senator in U.S. history after defeating former Rep. Mike Rogers (R).

South Carolina

ANDREWS (D)

Democratic Flip In a stunning victory, Democrat Annie Andrews defeated incumbent Sen. Darline Graham (R), who was appointed to fill the seat held by her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Texas

TALARICO (D)

Democratic Flip Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the most expensive midterm race in U.S. history. Talarico is the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate seat since 1988.

Outstanding Races Alaska

Sullivan (R) v. Peltola (D) Dead heat, with more than a quarter of votes still to count.

Mississippi

Hyde-Smith (R) v. Colom (D) Colom led by 65 votes with 96% counted; no runoff.

Election Overview — Messaging

KEY MESSAGING: WHAT CUT THROUGH Common Denominator: Affordability

Healthcare Remains a Top Issue for Voters

Data Centers Are a Non-Partisan Issue

An estimated $920 million was spent on ads addressing the economy, outpacing any other issue this cycle.

While part of the overall affordability concern, healthcare affordability remained a top focus, just not as dominant as the 2018 midterms.

The message shifted from whether to build to how growth should be handled.

Affordability became the message that broke through this cycle. Cost-of-living concerns, particularly in the context of the Iran War, along with broader concerns on the state of the economy became issues which voters and candidates alike focused on the most.

Democrats attributed rising costs and affordability challenges with Republican-led healthcare reforms, while Republicans defended an anti-fraud agenda, warning Democrats could considerably increase healthcare spending.

Data centers have become a proxy fight for affordability and AI policy, while lawmakers determine how to regulate. The winning message in both parties is to support innovation while ensuring communities have a voice in infrastructure development.

WHAT RESONATED

Cost-of-living and economic security facing Americans in their everyday lives.

Lowering healthcare costs remains priority for Americans.

Community impact and local accountability

Cornerstone Public Affairs View: Affordability, accountability and tangible community impact dominated campaigns. Candidates looked beyond traditional party issues and focused on what policies could improve everyday lives.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Election Overview — Takeaways

KEY CORNERSTONE TAKEAWAYS 1 2 3

Democrats Take Significant Majorities in Congress

In a resounding blue wave, Democrats take full control of the legislative branch with sizable majorities in both chambers. With President Trump in the White House and the legislative filibuster intact, legislative and funding bills will still need bipartisan support. With surprisingly large majorities in the House and the Senate, look for Democrats to wield significantly more influence over policy priorities.

Jeffries Makes History

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is set to make history by becoming the first Black Speaker of the House of Representatives on Jan. 3. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), having overcome significant odds to take the majority despite a challenging Senate map, is certain to maintain leadership of his caucus.

Legislation vs. Oversight

Democratic leaders say they will walk and chew gum at the same time by advancing a legislative agenda focused heavily on affordability and conducting rigorous oversight of the Trump Administration. With ideologically diverse new majorities, leaders are likely to take some time to craft their floor agendas, legislative priorities and political messaging as they seek to create a strong foundation for 2028 and beyond.

Key Pressure Points

With full control of Congress, Democrats will challenge the White House on key policy issues in the 120th Congress, including trade policy, the war in Iran and federal spending levels. While President Trump can certainly wield his veto power, many of the bills that reach his desk will have gained bipartisan support in the Senate, making it a political challenge for him to veto. At minimum, the White House will need to work with Democrats to keep the government open, pass the annual defense bill and deal with the debt limit. Expect the President to lean hard on executive actions, another flashpoint between the branches.

Let's Make a Deal?

President Trump considers himself a Dealmaker-in-Chief, and Democrats are eager to show the country they can govern and get something done, especially on affordability issues. Can the President and congressional Democratic leadership find areas to work together? And how will the politics of the 2028 presidential primary impact bipartisan legislative efforts?

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Election Overview — Notable New Members & Losses

SENATE ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES Note: Counts reflect races called as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 4 and will grow as remaining races are decided. At Least

At Least

New Senators

Outgoing senators not returning

Senate Arrivals

Senate Departures

Dem o c r ats

Annie Andrews (D-SC)

Peggy Flanagan (D-MN)

Juliana Stratton (D-IL)

Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Adam Hamilton (D-KS)

James Talarico (D-TX)

Roy Cooper (D-NC)

Troy Jackson (D-ME)

Josh Turek (D-IA)

Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI)

Chris Pappas (D-NH)

Rep u b lic an s

Kurt Alme (R-MT)

Harriet Hageman (R-WY)

Barry Moore (R-AL)

Andy Barr (R-KY)

Julia Letlow (R-LA)

Kevin Hern (R-OK)

Ou tstan d in g r ac es

Alaska: Sullivan (R) v. Peltola (D)

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Mississippi: Hyde-Smith (R) v. Colom (D)

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Dick Durbin (D-IL) Retiring Gary Peters (D-MI) Retiring

Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) Retiring Tina Smith (D-MN) Retiring

Rep u b lic an s

Bill Cassidy (R-LA) Lost primary Susan Collins (R-ME) Lost to Jackson (D-ME) John Cornyn (R-TX) Lost primary Steve Daines (R-MT) Retiring

Joni Ernst (R-IA) Retiring Darline Graham (R-SC) Lost to Andrews (D-SC) Jon Husted (R-OH) Lost to Brown (D-OH) Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) Retiring

Roger Marshall (R-KS) Lost to Hamilton (D-KS) Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Retiring Thom Tillis (R-NC) Retiring Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) Won Alabama Governor election

Alan Armstrong (R-OK) Appointed; declined to run for a full term

Election Overview — Notable New Members & Losses

HOUSE ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES Note: Counts reflect races called as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 4 and will grow as remaining races are decided. Notable = departing chairs, ranking members and party leaders. Arrivals include Democrats who flipped or won open seats, plus returning former members. Notable House Arrivals

Returning Members

Notable House Departures

Dem o c r ats

Rebecca Bennett (D-NJ)

Rebecca Cooke (D-WI)

Colin Allred (D-TX)

Angie Craig (D-MN)

Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

Jerry Nadler (D-NY)

Daniel Biss (D-IL)

Dan Koh (D-MA)

Melissa Bean (D-IL)

Diana DeGette (D-CO)

Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL)

Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Adrian Boafo (D-MD)

Micah Lasher (D-NY)

Elaine Luria (D-VA)

Jared Golden (D-ME)

Seth Moulton (D-MA)

Nydia Velázquez (D-NY)

Christina Bohannan (D-IA)

JoAnna Mendoza (D-AZ)

Ben McAdams (D-UT)

Rep u b lic an s

Paige Cognetti (D-PA)

Marni von Wilpert (D-CA) Hilda Solis (D-CA)

Jodey Arrington (R-TX)

Sam Graves (R-MO)

Elise Stefanik (R-NY)

Don Bacon (R-NE)

Richard Hudson (R-NC)

Bryan Steil (R-WI)

Andy Barr (R-KY)

Darrell Issa (R-CA)

Byron Donalds (R-FL)

Chip Roy (R-TX)

NJ-07 · vs. Kean (R)

IL-09 · Schakowsky seat MD-05 · Hoyer seat

IA-01 · vs. Miller-Meeks (R) PA-08 · vs. Bresnahan (R)

WI-03 · vs. Van Orden (R) MA-06 · Moulton seat NY-12 · Nadler seat

AZ-06 · vs. Ciscomani (R) CA-48 · Issa seat

Served 2019–25 Served 2005–11 Served 2019–23 Served 2019–21 Served 2001–09

Ran for Senate Lost primary Retiring

Retiring, Budget Chair Retiring

Won Senate election Ran for governor

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Retiring

Ran for Senate Ran for Senate

Retiring, T&I Chair

NRCC Chair, lost reelection

Retiring Retiring Retiring

Retiring

Lost to Berman

Retiring

Ran for Texas AG

Election Overview — Party Leadership

PARTY LEADERSHIP IN EACH CHAMBER Note: Leadership positions are expected, not confirmed; each party elects its leaders after the election, typically in mid-November. Senate — Expected Leadership

House — Expected Leadership

Democratic Leader

Democratic Whip

Speaker

Majority Leader

Majority Whip

Chuck Schumer

Brian Schatz

Hakeem Jeffries

Katherine Clark

Pete Aguilar

(D-NY) Expected; Vote in early December

(D-HI) Expected; Durbin retiring

(D-NY) Expected

(D-MA) Expected

(D-CA) Expected

Who Republicans Are Discussing

Republican Leader

Republican Whip

Minority Leader

Minority Whip

John Thune

John Barrasso

TBD

Republican vote pending

(R-SD) Expected to remain

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(R-WY) Expected to remain

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Republican Minority Leader/Whip Current House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) are both running for Minority Leader. Current Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) is running to remain in the Republican Whip position and is being challenged by Rep. August Pfluger (R-TX).

Election Overview — Senate Committee Leadership

SENATE COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP Note: Expected, not confirmed; each party selects chairs and ranking members after the election. Committee

Chair

Ranking Member

Committee

Chair

Ranking Member

Agriculture, Nutrition & Forestry

Michael Bennet (D-CO)

John Boozman (R-AR)

Foreign Relations

Chris Coons (D-DE)

Jim Risch (R-ID)

Appropriations

Patty Murray (D-WA)

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Health, Education, Labor & Pensions

Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

Rand Paul (R-KY) or Josh Hawley (R-MO)

Armed Services

Jack Reed (D-RI)

Roger Wicker (R-MS)

Homeland Security & Gov’t Affairs

Maggie Hassan (D-NH)

Rand Paul (R-KY) or Ron Johnson (R-WI)

Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs

Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

Tim Scott (R-SC)

Judiciary

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)

Mike Lee (R-UT)

Budget

Tim Kaine (D-VA)

Chuck Grassley (R-IA)

Rules & Administration

Alex Padilla (D-CA)

Deb Fischer (R-NE)

Commerce, Science & Transportation

Maria Cantwell (D-WA)

Ted Cruz (R-TX)

Small Business & Entrepreneurship

Edward Markey (D-MA)

Todd Young (R-IN)

Energy & Natural Resources

Martin Heinrich (D-NM)

Dave McCormick (R-PA)

Veterans’ Affairs

Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)

Jerry Moran (R-KS)

Environment & Public Works

Jeff Merkley (D-OR)

Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)

Indian Affairs

Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)

John Hoeven (R-ND)

Finance

Ron Wyden (D-OR)

Mike Crapo (R-ID)

Intelligence (select)

Mark Warner (D-VA)

Tom Cotton (R-AR)

Committee chairs and ranking members are not decided until after leadership elections.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Election Overview — House Committee Leadership

HOUSE COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP Note: Expected, not confirmed; each party selects chairs and ranking members after the election. Waivers are up to party leaders; this list assumes none are granted. Committee

Chair

Ranking Member

Agriculture

Jim Costa (D-CA)^ Shontel Brown (D-OH)^

Austin Scott (R-GA)

Appropriations

Rosa DeLauro (D-CT)

Tom Cole (R-OK)

Armed Services

Adam Smith (D-WA)

Mike Rogers (R-AL) Trent Kelly (R-MS) Ronny Jackson (R-TX)

Budget

Brendan Boyle (D-PA)

Lloyd Smucker (R-PA) Blake Moore (R-UT)

Education & Workforce

Bobby Scott (D-VA) Jahana Hayes (D-CT)^ Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR)^

Tim Walberg (R-MI)

Energy & Commerce

Frank Pallone (D-NJ)

Brett Guthrie (R-KY)

Ethics**

Mark DeSaulnier (D-CA)

Michael Guest (R-MS)

Financial Services

Maxine Waters (D-CA) Sean Casten (D-IL)^

French Hill (R-AR)

Foreign Affairs

Gregory Meeks (D-NY)

Brian Mast (R-FL)

Homeland Security

Bennie Thompson (D-MS)

Andrew Garbarino (R-NY)

House Administration**

Joe Morelle (D-NY)

TBD

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Committee

Chair

Ranking Member

Judiciary

Jamie Raskin (D-MD)

Laurel Lee (R-FL) Scott Fitzgerald (R-WI) Lance Gooden (R-TX)

Natural Resources

Jared Huffman (D-CA)

Paul Gosar (R-AZ) Pete Stauber (R-MN)

Oversight & Government Reform

Robert Garcia (D-CA)

Pat Fallon (R-TX) Brandon Gill (R-TX)

Rules**

Jim McGovern (D-MA)

TBD

Science, Space & Technology

Zoe Lofgren (D-CA)

Brian Babin (R-TX)

Small Business

Sharice Davids (D-KS)^ Gil Cisneros (D-CA)^

Roger Williams (R-TX)

Transportation & Infrastructure

Rick Larsen (D-WA)

David Rouzer (R-NC)

Veterans’ Affairs

Mark Takano (D-CA)

Jack Bergman (R-MI)

Ways & Means

Richard Neal (D-MA)

Jason Smith (R-MO)

Intelligence (permanent select)

Jim Himes (D-CT)

Rick Crawford (R-AR)

Committee chairs are not decided until after leadership elections. ^Declared challenger candidate **Nominated by the Speaker/Democratic Leader and ratified by the Caucus; not an open election

Election Overview — Policy Agenda

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP PRIORITIES AND WHAT’S AHEAD

House and Senate Democratic Priorities

Looking Ahead

Affordability

Nominations

Lowering everyday costs for families: housing, groceries, gas, energy and goods. Look for quick action on health care, tariffs and the war in Iran.

Health Care Reversing Medicaid cuts and restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies will be top priorities for Democrats in both chambers, expect early action in the 120th Congress.

Senate Democrats control the floor and committees, significantly slowing or blocking President Trump’s executive and judicial nominees.

Debt Ceiling The U.S. hits the debt limit in early 2027; Democrats will have leverage with the Administration and may tie a deal to their spending priorities and ongoing consternation over OMB impoundment efforts.

Accountability and Oversight

National Defense Authorization Act

Hearings, subpoenas, letter inquiries and investigations into the Trump Administration, particularly in areas where there exists a nexus with impacts to affordability, will be a bicameral focus for Democrats. Efforts to pass a ban on congressional stock trading and instituting Supreme Court ethics reform are on the table.

Democrats' strengthened oversight of the Pentagon is sure to be reflected in the annual defense bill process in both chambers, but with Republican votes still needed to reach 60 in the Senate, a number of the Administration's priorities are likely to remain.

Messaging Democratic leaders are focused on developing a unified message to build a contrast with the Trump Administration. Leader Schumer will soon release a messaging frame that focuses on four priorities: relief, repeal, rein in and reimagine the government.

Continued efforts Lame-duck leftovers: AI federal framework proposal, the Ratepayer Protection Act, permitting reform, FISA Section 702, the farm bill and NIL.

Watch for: Democrats will try to notch early policy/political wins, but expect it will take time for Leaders and Committee Chairs to craft policy agendas and consensus legislation with their new and diverse majorities, while trying to avoid internal fissures on issues like Medicare for All and funding for Israel.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

ADMINISTRATION IMPACT How the results change engagement with the White House and agencies

Administration Impact — Relationships

RELATIONSHIP IMPACT ON THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

Pressure Points

What Changes

What It Means

Oversight & Investigations

Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) at Oversight and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) at Judiciary will take the lead on high profile issues but expect every committee to conduct robust oversight.

Companies and organizations should prepare for letters, subpoenas and requests to testify in both chambers.

Power of the Purse

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), incoming chairs of the Appropriations Committees, will attempt to reestablish more parity between defense and non-defense discretionary funding.

Democrats will have more leverage in negotiating topline spending levels and establishing guardrails to combat the Administration's impoundment efforts.

Confirmations Slow

Senate Democrats control the floor and committees, so executive and judicial nominees, including Supreme Court nominees, will need Democratic support once the new Congress is seated on Jan. 3.

Expect more acting officials and longer vacancies at agencies, vacancies in the judicial branch, plus more executive orders and litigation in the courts.

Trade & Emergency Powers

Both chambers can pass legislation to constrain the President's trade and tariff policy, forcing the President to veto them.

Overrides are unlikely, but the votes show where members stand. Expect Democrats and Republicans to see divides within their caucuses.

Bottom line: With Democrats running both chambers, the Administration loses its legislative path and easy confirmations. Expect governing by executive action and veto, while Congress drives oversight, funding terms and nominations.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

POLICY AREAS Focus of the 120th Congress, issue by issue

Policy Area — Appropriations

APPROPRIATIONS: BIPARTISANSHIP WILL REMAIN ESSENTIAL Quick Take

Democrats will control the appropriations process next Congress but they will still need 60 votes to pass bills in the Senate and signoff from the White House, so both parties will have to work together. But first things first: reaching a deal on the fiscal year 2027 spending bills before the end of this year. What It Means

•

• • •

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Appropriations

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) Chair

Appropriators from all four corners of Congress want to “clear the decks” before the next Congress by completing negotiations on the FY27 spending bills during the lame duck session. They must first get the green light from House and Senate leadership, however; some rank-andfile Democrats might want to punt negotiations until the next Congress. With the possible backing of at least some key Republicans, Democrats will also seek to include guardrails that attempt to constrain the executive branch from infringing on Congress’ power of the purse. Looking ahead to FY28, expect Democrats to conduct robust oversight of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and federal agencies with regard to how the executive branch is implementing appropriations bills. House and Senate Democrats will revise guidance and eligibility for Community Project Funding/Congressionally Designated Spending in the next Congress.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) Vice Chair

House Appropriations

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) Chair

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) Ranking Member

Signal to Watch

How quickly both parties can agree on topline FY27 spending levels. Negotiating the split between defense and nondefense funding is the key to unlocking the FY27 appropriations process. The sooner that happens, the more likely it is that appropriators will have time to complete the spending bills during the lame duck session.

Subcommittee chair update: Appropriations subcommittee leadership will be set by each party after the election. Outcomes depend on the election results, member term-limit waivers on the Republican side of the aisle, and the seniority and selection processes in each chamber. It is possible that several subcommittees could change hands. Reach out to the Cornerstone team for a full breakdown of the leading scenarios.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Policy Area — Agriculture

AGRICULTURE: FARM BILL PASSAGE - THERE IS A WILL, BUT IS THERE A WAY? What Happened

The election result encourages farm country members to look for swift passage of the Farm Bill in the lame duck session, but members more focused on nutrition programs contemplate what is possible in 2027. What It Means

• Enactment of a Farm Bill in the remaining weeks of the 119th Congress is possible but unlikely. • Democratic committee staff are still working with Republican counterparts on Farm Bill conference efforts, but the onus will be on the majorities now to reach a deal on contentious items. o Changes to SNAP enacted through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) are unacceptable to Democrats. Senate Democrats seek additional concessions on SNAP and nutrition-related provisions, including error-rate implementation.

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Agriculture

Sen. Michael Bennet* (D-CO) Chair

Sen. John Boozman (R-AR) Ranking Member

House Agriculture

Rep. Shontel Brown** (D-OH) Chair

Rep. Austin Scott*** (R-GA) Ranking Member

• While a path for full Senate acceptance of the bill is possible, member attendance challenges in the House and procedural hurdles in the Rules Committee will make final adoption of a Farm Bill in this Congress challenging. • A Democratic Farm Bill wish list would likely include strengthening food security, codifying climate-focused guardrails, upending the current commodity support structure and expanding support for specialty crops and regional food systems. • In the 120th Congress, Democratic committee leadership will direct oversight toward tariff and trade policy and USDA usage of funds, including agency reorganization, the Commodity Credit Corporation, grant awards, conservation, research priorities, nutrition policy and market fairness.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

*Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) as chair is contingent on how returning Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-OH) seniority is treated. **Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA) is also running for top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee. ***Current Chair G.T. Thompson (R-PA) is term-limited and may request a waiver, but the prospects appear unlikely at this time.

Policy Area — AI & Technology

AI POLICY: DEMOCRATS TAKE THE GAVELS Quick Take

House and Senate Democrats will push for federal action on AI guardrails, frontier-model risks, privacy and oversight of the technology industry. Can they find common ground with President Trump and Republicans?

Senate Commerce Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)

Chair

Ranking Member

Senate Judiciary

What It Means

• After an election fought in part on AI and tech issues, members will be anxious to show their constituents they can legislate on issues related to the emerging technologies that will define the next century. • House Democrats may be emboldened to advance partisan bills quickly through the House in order to set up negotiations with the Senate and White House. Possible areas of focus include guardrails for frontier models, catastrophic risk, national security, algorithmic bias, privacy and workforce issues. • Senators will continue bipartisan discussions on frontier model regulations, including catastrophic risks, child safety and federal preemption, with Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) emerging as the likely Democratic lead on frontier AI issues. • Expect committees without direct tech jurisdiction to advance sector-focused AI proposals as well. For example, the House Financial Services Committee will likely move policies on agentic AI in banking. • Expect dramatically increased oversight of the Trump Administration and tech companies with ties to the Trump Administration. House and Senate committees will compete for the limelight of these major investigations, and every decision by the Trump Administration will face congressional scrutiny.

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Expected Committee Leadership

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)

Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT)

Chair

Ranking Member

Senate Homeland Security Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH)

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)

Chair

Ranking Member

House Oversight Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) Chair

TBD

Ranking Member · Pat Fallon (R-TX) or Brandon Gill (R-TX)

House Energy & Commerce Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ)

Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-KY)

Chair

Ranking Member

House Science, Space & Technology Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA)

Rep. Brian Babin (R-TX)

Chair

Ranking Member

House Judiciary Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) Chair

TBD

Ranking Member · Laurel Lee (R-FL), Scott Fitzgerald (R-WI) or Lance Gooden (R-TX)

Policy Area — Data Centers

DATA CENTERS TAKE CENTER STAGE Quick Take

One of the biggest issues of the 2026 midterm elections was data center development and its impact on local communities and the environment. Utility costs, grid strain, energy and water consumption and noise pollution drew bipartisan concern. Democrats, who are more critical of data center development, are expected to press the issue early in the new Congress. What It Means

• Democrats will schedule more hearings on data center transparency, grid reliability, consumer energy costs and environmental impacts; continuing to message the affordability crisis and associating it with data centers. • Expect Democrats to push federal guardrails on data centers and clean energy integration, which face the Senate's 60-vote threshold and a likely veto from President Trump. However, both chambers may continue to prioritize ratepayer protections, which could receive bipartisan support. • A bipartisan permitting reform bill is queued for a Senate vote in the lame duck with major implications to data center developments. If it does not pass in the lame duck, expect it to be a top priority in the 120th Congress, with impacts to data center development. • Expect House and Senate Democrats to take on aggressive oversight of data centers, considering the concerns over environmental impacts, including natural gas usage, as well as Trump Administration support and funding for data center development. • Democrats may continue advocating for stronger federal restrictions, but state and local governments are likely to remain the primary decision-makers on data center development and leveraging their authority to negotiate community benefit agreements.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Energy & Natural Resources

Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM)

Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA)

Chair

Ranking Member

Senate Environment & Public Works

Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR)

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)

Chair

Ranking Member

House Energy & Commerce

Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ)

Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-KY)

Chair

Ranking Member

House Natural Resources

Rep. Jared Huffman (D-CA) Chair

TBD

Ranking Member · Paul Gosar (R-AZ) or Pete Stauber (R-MN)

Judiciary, Oversight, Governmental Affairs, Science, Commerce and HELP also claim secondary jurisdiction (privacy, antitrust, workforce) but aren’t primary venues for data center legislation.

Policy Area — Defense

DEFENSE: THE NDAA AND THE DOLLARS BEHIND IT Quick Take

Democrats will hold gavels in the Senate Armed Services Committee under Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) and House Armed Services Committee under Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) in the next Congress. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) remains the one must-pass defense policy bill and given longstanding angst by Democrats over Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s handling of the Department and opaque decision-making in foreign conflicts, oversight is expected to be a major focus for Democratic majorities.

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Armed Services

Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI)

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS)

Chair

Ranking Member

House Armed Services

What It Means

• Oversight: With Democrats in charge of both Armed Services Committees, expect Chairs Reed and Smith to prioritize jurisdictional oversight and investigations into, but not exclusively, major defense contractors, programs such as Golden Dome and the renaming of the Department of Defense (DoD), including a potential impeachment push on Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) Chair

TBD

Ranking Member · Mike Rogers (R-AL)* Trent Kelly (R-MS) or Ronny Jackson (R-TX)

• Democratic focus: Expect attention on a smaller and smarter DoD budget, innovation, accountability, guardrails on the domestic use of the military and on war powers, particularly as they pertain to Iran, and additional support for NATO allies and Ukraine. • Bipartisan efforts: Completing the NDAA will remain a top priority for both the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, with bipartisan negotiations over priorities to be agreed upon in the final text. These include servicemember quality of life, civilian pay, industrial base resilience, acquisition reform, a tough line on China and Russia, and guidelines for AI and autonomy use. • HASC and SASC Makeup: Three SASC Members and 11 HASC Members will not be returning in the 120th Congress, opening up leadership positions on multiple subcommittees. • Authorized defense spending is expected to face tighter controls and significantly slower growth compared to defense budget requested by the Trump Administration.

Cornerstone Government Affairs

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

*Would require waiver

Policy Area — Energy

ENERGY: DEMOCRATIC SWEEP SHIFTS FOCUS TO TRANSMISSION, CLEAN ENERGY AND OVERSIGHT Quick Take

With Democrats in charge of both chambers, the energy agenda likely shifts toward transmission expansion, clean energy deployment, ratepayer protections, climate resilience, environmental protections, and oversight of Trump Administration actions.

Senate Energy & Natural Resources

Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM)

Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA)

Chair

What It Means

• Transmission planning, siting, interconnection queues and grid modernization would become central to the response to rising electricity demand and energy affordability concerns. Permitting renewable projects will be prioritized. • Committees are likely to conduct aggressive oversight of Trump executive actions affecting energy supply and prices, Department of Energy (DOE) funding rescissions, energy-related equity deals, collaboration with fossil energy companies, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) staffing and regulatory rollbacks, federal land sales or privatization efforts and the environmental impacts of expanded fossil fuel infrastructure. • If the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA) is not enacted, Democrats could pursue legislation addressing federal transmission oversight, ratepayer protections, renewable energy project certainty and clean energy permitting.

Cornerstone Government Affairs

Expected Committee Leadership

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Ranking Member

Senate Environment & Public Works

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)

Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) Chair

Ranking Member

House Energy & Commerce

Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ)

Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-KY)

Chair

Ranking Member

House Natural Resources

Rep. Jared Huffman (D-CA) Chair

TBD

Ranking Member · Paul Gosar (R-AZ) or Pete Stauber (R-MN)

Policy Area — Financial Services

FINANCIAL SERVICES: WATERS-WARREN LEADERSHIP SIGNALS HEIGHTENED OVERSIGHT Quick Take

Democrats take both the House Financial Services and Banking gavels. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), the House Financial Services Committee Ranking Member, may face a competitive race for chair, but she is likely to prevail. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), the Senate Banking Ranking Member, is likely to become the next Chair.

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Banking

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) Chair

What It Means

• Both committees will pursue aggressive oversight of the Trump Administration’s financial agenda, including the Department of the Treasury, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Finance Agency, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Securities and Exchange Commission and Prudential banking regulators. • Expect investigations of regulatory rollbacks, bank charters for financial technology firms, bank capital and mergers, agency independence and potential conflicts involving the President’s financial and cryptocurrency interests.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) Ranking Member

House Financial Services

Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) Chair

Rep. French Hill (R-AR) Ranking Member

• Affordability, consumer protections, access to credit and housing opportunities will remain a high priority for both chambers, with strong interest particularly in ROAD implementation and developing a ROAD 2.0 agenda. Private equity and private credit industries remain under scrutiny, with a focus on connections to financial stability risks. • Targeted bipartisan crypto measures on tax treatment or foreign investment could attract consideration, though they may serve primarily as messaging bills given the long odds of President Trump signing them into law.

Cornerstone Government Affairs

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Signal to Watch

Early chamber alignment on investigations and the oversight agenda.

Policy Area — Health

HEALTH: AFFORDABILITY, OVERSIGHT AND UNWINDING OBBBA Quick Take

Democrats will now hold all the gavels, giving Sens. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Reps. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) and Richard Neal (D-MA) control over the health policy agenda for the next two years.

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Chair

What It Means

• Democrats will primarily use this power to try and reverse healthcare cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and reinstate the enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits that expired at the end of 2025. • Drug pricing and price transparency will remain forefront issues, with continued debate on Medicare Drug Price Negotiation and greater appetite for negotiations on 340B reform. • With Senate control, Democrats will strongly resist any new Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) nominees, making it difficult for the Trump Administration to fill any vacancies that arise. • Oversight of the Trump Administration, especially OBBBA and industry deals, will be a key focus for House and Senate Democrats. • Expect bigger and more ambitious health policy proposals on both cost and coverage, as Democrats trial run potential 2028 health reform proposals. • Health subcommittee gavels will change: Reps. Kathy Castor (D-FL) or Raul Ruiz (D-CA) will likely lead on the House Energy & Commerce Committee, and Rep. Mike Thompson (D-CA) on the House Ways & Means Committee.

TBD

Ranking Member · Josh Hawley

(R-MO) or Rand Paul (R-KY)

Senate Finance Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) Chair

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) Ranking Member

House Energy & Commerce Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) Chair

Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-KY) Ranking Member

House Ways & Means Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) Chair

Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) Ranking Member

House Education & Labor

TBD

Chair · Bobby Scott (D-VA), Jahana Hayes (D-CT) or Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR)

Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI)

Ranking Member

• Prescription drug and medical device user fees expire on Sept. 30, 2027, presenting a must-pass legislative vehicle.

Cornerstone Government Affairs

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Policy Area — Higher Education

HIGHER EDUCATION: FEDERAL FUNDING, OVERSIGHT AND RESEARCH Quick Take

Education committee leadership is reshuffled on both sides: two Democrats, Reps. Jahana Hayes (DCT) and Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR), are running against House Education & Labor Committee Ranking Member Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA), while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) returns as Chair of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) and Republicans pick a new ranking member after Sen. Bill Cassidy’s (R-LA) primary defeat.

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Chair

What It Means • Appropriations will become the primary tool for reversing Administration policy, with both chambers proposing robust student aid and binding language on grant management and research funding. Final congressional agreement will still need a presidential signature, so outcomes could land closer to current levels than Democratic marks. • Democratic priorities will center on rollback, oversight and affordability: reinstate income-driven repayment flexibility, strengthen borrower protections and shore up Pell’s long-term financing. • Republican priorities shift to defending OBBBA and the Trump Administration’s agenda through the presidential veto and messaging on cost, accountability and institutional conduct. • Bipartisan openings remain on research funding and narrow items like servicing standards and short-term credential quality, where bipartisan bills already exist. Key Markers

~$15B

TBD

Ranking Member · Rand Paul (R-KY) or Josh Hawley (R-MO)

House Education & Labor

TBD

Chair · Bobby Scott (D-VA), Jahana Hayes (D-CT) or Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR)

Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI) Ranking Member

Signal to Watch Projected FY27 Pell Grant shortfall. Both the President’s budget and the House appropriations bill cover it; the fight is over the offset. Senate position is unknown.

enforcement date for Education Department rules on career program accountability, July 1, 2027 OBBBA distance education tracking, and loan rehabilitation; also when the House Labor-HHS bill ends subsidized undergraduate loans.

Cornerstone Government Affairs

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Whether Democratic leadership treats higher education as a lead appropriations fight (willing to risk a CR standoff over Department of Education protections and Pell) or as a secondary priority behind health care and other nondefense spending.

Policy Area — Immigration

IMMIGRATION: FUNDING AND ENFORCEMENT REFORM PRIORITIES Quick Take

President Trump’s campaign promise of aggressive enforcement actions quickly became the most controversial. Voters across the aisle agree on the need to secure the border, but the Trump Administration’s handling of internal enforcement caused one of President Trump’s top issues to turn into a political liability. Among other issues, voters gave Democrats the majorities in both chambers to provide oversight of the Administration’s immigration crackdown. With control of the Senate, Democrats can slow or block the President’s Department of Homeland Security nominees and have considerable leverage in negotiations with the White House over immigration policy. What It Means

• Oversight of Trump Administration immigration enforcement and detention actions, including at agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), will take center stage in both chambers. With the Senate filibuster and a presidential veto still in play, expect comprehensive reforms to remain elusive. • Democrats will write both chambers’ Homeland Security appropriations bills and are likely to seek limits on enforcement and detention funding, making immigration a consistent flashpoint with the White House in annual spending negotiations. • Authorizing committees in both chambers prepare oversight of Trump Administration officials, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Administration’s mass deportation campaign, following a tumultuous last 18 months. Companies engaged with DHS may also come under scrutiny. • Democrats may push to reverse some changes to the visa system and pass legislation to protect vulnerable populations: permanent protections and a pathway to citizenship for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients, increased humanitarian protections, temporary or permanent status for essential workers and earned pathways to citizenship for law-abiding immigrants.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH)

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)

Ranking Member

Chair

Senate Judiciary Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)

Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT)

Ranking Member

Chair

House Homeland Security Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS)

Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-NY)

Chair

Ranking Member

House Judiciary Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) Chair

TBD

Ranking Member · Laurel Lee (RFL), Scott Fitzgerald (R-WI) or Lance Gooden (R-TX)

House Oversight & Government Reform Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) Chair

TBD

Ranking Member · Pat Fallon (RTX) or Brandon Gill (R-TX)

Policy Area — International Affairs

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS: AID, SANCTIONS, ALLIANCES Quick Take

Democrats will take control of both international affairs committees, with Rep. Gregory Meeks (DNY) leading the House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFAC) and Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) leading the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC). Unified Democratic control will allow the chambers to pursue a coordinated foreign policy agenda focused on oversight, congressional war powers, foreign assistance, diplomatic capacity and greater limits on the Administration’s actions, while still relying on bipartisan priorities to overcome presidential vetoes. What It Means • Coordinated Oversight: House and Senate Democrats could investigate overseas mining and energy agreements, International Development Finance Corporation transactions, Venezuela policy, Russian energy deals, Department of State restructuring, USAID’s closure and the Administration’s use of appropriated funds. HFAC will likely make oversight and accountability the connective theme across many of these issues.

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Foreign Relations

Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) Chair

Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) Ranking Member

House Foreign Affairs

Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY) Chair

Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL) Ranking Member

• Iran, Export Controls and Senate Leverage: HFAC and SFRC Democrats could coordinate scrutiny of the Iran war, War Powers compliance, military costs and congressional consultation, while recognizing the jurisdiction of other committees such as Armed Services, Intelligence and Appropriations. Export-control enforcement and the Bureau of Industry and Security would also receive significant attention, particularly if Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) leads the Senate Banking Committee. Senate Democrats would also gain leverage over ambassadorial and senior State Department nominations. • Foreign Assistance and Institutional Rebuilding: Democrats will seek to protect or restore support for Ukraine, diplomacy, development, humanitarian assistance, global health and refugee programs while developing a longer-term replacement for the former USAID structure. Appropriators could tighten limits on rescissions, reprogramming, transfers and withholding of funds. China, Russia, Sudan, critical minerals, sanctions and select national security measures could still attract bipartisan support, although presidential veto power would limit major policy reversals.

Cornerstone Government Affairs

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Signal to Watch Whether House and Senate Democrats align early on a coordinated oversight and appropriations agenda, particularly around Iran, Ukraine, foreign-assistance restructuring, diplomatic capacity and the Administration’s use of congressionally approved funding.

Policy Area — Semiconductors

SEMICONDUCTOR POLICY: EXPORT CONTROLS, TAX AND THE AI BUILDOUT Quick Take

Semiconductor policy should remain an area of bipartisan focus next Congress, with Democrats ready to exert more influence with majorities in both chambers. Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), likely chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), likely chair of the Senate Banking Committee, are expected to push tighter chip export controls on China and scrutinize federal equity stakes in private companies. Negotiations to extend the Section 48D chips investment tax credit likely slip into 2027.

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Banking Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) Chair

Chair

• Extension of the manufacturing tax credit (48D ITC) remains an area of interest, but negotiations are likely to extend into 2027 as Democrats weigh the credit rate and potential labor, stock buyback, and taxpayerreturn conditions. • Senate Banking and House Science Committees are likely to bring greater scrutiny of federal equity stakes, with oversight and appropriations restrictions more likely than efforts to unwind existing investments. • Democrats will likely push tighter restrictions on AI chips and semiconductor equipment; FY2027 NDAA serves as a potential legislative vehicle for the AI OVERWATCH, Chip Security and MATCH Acts in the near term. • Sen. Cantwell is likely to conduct oversight of the Commerce Department’s activities related to the CHIPS program, including R&D funding, and may seek to explore policies aimed at building on the Chips and Science Act. • Section 232 tariffs will face greater scrutiny, but Democrats cannot unwind them; expect additional oversight of foreign investment in the U.S., particularly around the tech industry.

Ranking Member

Senate Finance Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR)

What It Means

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) Ranking Member

Senate Commerce, Science & Transportation Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) Chair

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) Ranking Member

House Foreign Affairs Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY) Chair

Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL)

Ranking Member

House Ways & Means Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) Chair

Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) Ranking Member

House Energy & Commerce Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) Chair

Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-KY) Ranking Member

House Science, Space and Technology Committee and the House China Select Committee also claim secondary jurisdiction over semiconductor chips.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Policy Area — Tax

TAX: DEMOCRATS EYE OBBBA REPEALS THROUGH RECONCILIATION Quick Take

With Democrats back at the helm of the Ways & Means and Senate Finance Committees, expect important groundwork on tax to be laid for post-2028, even if broad structural tax reforms are unlikely during divided government. Important debates on tax, health, and social security are expected and the 2027 debt limit negotiations could lead to bipartisan legislating in the tax space.

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Finance

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) Chair

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) Ranking Member

House Ways & Means

What It Means

• Significant backlog of bipartisan tax policy may drive discussion and negotiation in the lame duck, and consideration of a “3.0” Republican reconciliation bill remains challenging but plausible.

Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) Chair

Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) Ranking Member

• Rep. Neal and Sen. Wyden are expected to review (and potentially repeal) components of the 2025 tax law through reconciliation, and later in the year to advance new proactive tax policy agenda items which may represent groundwork for future legislation. • They may leverage reconciliation to get something through Congress and force a presidential veto. This could include repeals of OBBBA, proactive agenda items, or both. • Debt limit may be a forcing function for bipartisan discussions in 2027.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Key Date

Dec. 31

Additional tax extenders expire

Policy Area — Trade

TRADE: TARIFF AUTHORITY AND THE CHINA POSTURE Quick Take

Democrats will conduct significant oversight of and potentially legislate on the President's trade authority, particularly focused on the use of tariffs. Broad structural trade reforms are unlikely in divided government, but bipartisan votes on trade items could serve as a pressure release on the President's trade agenda. What It Means

Senate Finance

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) Chair

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) Ranking Member

Senate Banking

• Rep. Neal and Sen. Wyden are expected to review (and potentially modify or repeal) components of the President’s trade authorities. • While unlikely, Congress could also legislate on tariffs themselves. They may leverage reconciliation to get something through Congress and force a presidential veto. • Oversight of the use of the President’s trade authorities, executive-level trade agreements and the inclusions/exclusions process is also likely to take a front seat. • House Democrats will need to make an early decision regarding whether or not to continue the China Select Committee. Some argue the work of the select committee is best handled by HFAC, while others highlight the importance of a dedicated select committee.

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Expected Committee Leadership

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) Chair

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) Ranking Member

House Ways & Means

Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) Chair

Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) Ranking Member

House Financial Services

Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) Chair

Rep. French Hill (R-AR) Ranking Member

Policy Area — Transportation

TRANSPORTATION: DEMOCRATS CONTROL THE AGENDA Quick Take Anticipated Chairs include: Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA) for the House Transportation and Infrastructure (T&I) Committee; Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) for the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee; Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) for the Senate Environment and Public Works (EPW) Committee; and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) for the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. House chair positions will be selected in December, with Senate following in January. Subcommittee Chairs will follow Chair positions in January.

Expected Committee Leadership Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation

Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) Chair

What It Means • A short-term extension of surface transportation programs will be necessary, allowing Rep. Larsen to rewrite the bill with some adjustments for caucus priorities while maintaining a bipartisan product in the tradition of the House T&I Committee. Senate leadership will have to corral its four committees of jurisdiction to move their components of a bill as well. o Highway Trust Fund revenues will run low as early as July 2027, adding pressure to move quickly without relief in the lame duck. • FAA priorities will be addressed separately as the current authorization expires at the end of fiscal year 2028. o If the ALERT/ROTOR legislation to address NTSB recommendations from the 2025 Washington, D.C., crash continues without resolution during the lame duck, we can expect early action next session in both chambers. • Oversight: Expect scrutiny of Department of Transportation grant cancellations and delays; stronger oversight on the use of funds, spending delays and demands for more transparency over contracts; stronger support for the Jones Act and tougher Jones Act waiver oversight. • Other priorities: o Consumer Costs: Part of the affordability agenda from gas price manipulation to ticket junk fees o Infrastructure Spending: Pressure to preserve Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) funding levels with potential adjustments for aviation modernization o Maritime: SHIPS proposals will keep bipartisan backing with increased likelihood of moving components under Cantwell and Larsen leadership o Rail: The Railway Safety Act will have an increased chance of moving and has the support from VP Vance o Water: A bipartisan Water Resources Development Act o AI: Regulation will take substantial committee bandwidth in both chambers

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)

Ranking Member

Senate Environment and Public Works

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) Chair

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) Ranking Member

House Transportation and Infrastructure

Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA) Chair

Rep. David Rouzer (R-NC) Ranking Member

Signal to Watch

Rep. Larsen’s first reauthorization hearing will serve as a key early indicator of how Democrats will focus their efforts in the 120th Congress. Battles over the power of the purse and execution of the laws passed by Congress will intensify.

CORNERSTONE’S PERSPECTIVE FROM THE STATES Notable gubernatorial and state legislature results

State-Level Races — The Map

DEMOCRATS GAIN GOVERNORSHIPS Note: Counts reflect races called as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 4. Kansas and Alaska remain uncalled, with the Democratic candidate currently in the lead in both. AK

The Math

ME VT

Incoming Democrats (22)

Cornerstone Government Affairs

No race in 2026 (14)

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Governorships on the ballot

28 D – 20 R

Split of governors nationwide after the election (2 remain uncalled)

5 FL

Incoming Republicans (12)

Governorships that changed parties so far (GA, IA, TX, OH, NV)

Shading shows the party of the incoming governor based on election results. Not yet called (2)

Cornerstone office location

State-Level Races — Governors

SIX GOVERNORS’ RACES THAT SET THE TONE Note: Results as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 4. Margins are subject to change.

GA Georgia

NV Nevada

BOTTOMS (D)

FORD (D)

SAND (D)

Bottoms (D) vs. Jackson (R). First Democratic governor since the 1990s and first Black female governor in history; priorities will include data centers, health care expansion, and education.

Ford (D) vs. Lombardo (R). A regained trifecta and veto power shapes gaming, tax, housing and energy bills; data centers are a dominant campaign issue.

Sand (D) vs. Lahn (R). First Democratic governor elected in Iowa since 2006; open seat after Gov. Reynolds; farm economy, biofuels and water quality shape the race.

OH Ohio

ACTON (D)

HINOJOSA (D)

BENSON (D)

Acton (D) vs. Ramaswamy (R). First Democratic governor since 2006 and first female governor in state history; affordability and access to health care are top priorities.

Hinojosa (D) vs. Abbott (R). The first Democratic governor elected in Texas in 35 years; a new dynamic in the Legislature without a trifecta.

Benson (D) vs. James (R). Open seat after Gov. Whitmer; auto, EV and manufacturing policy reset with the next governor.

Democratic Flip

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Texas

Democratic Flip

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Iowa

Democratic Flip

Michigan

Democratic Hold

State-Level Races — Legislatures

STATE LEGISLATURES: FLIPS AND SUPERMAJORITIES Note: Results as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 4. Statuses are expected to shift as counting and recounts finish. The states and results highlighted here are likely to change.

TBD

Chambers flipped to Democrats

Chambers flipped to Republicans

Supermajorities gained or lost

Chambers to Watch: Highlights

Supermajorities Gained or Lost: Highlights

State

Chamber (held by)

Flipped to

State

Change

Arizona

House and Senate (R)

TBD

Florida

House Republicans lost supermajority

Michigan

House (R)

House (D)

Kansas

House Republicans lost supermajority

Minnesota

House (Split)

House (D)

North Carolina

House (R)

House (D)

Nevada

Democrats won a supermajority in the Assembly; Senate TBD

Texas

House (R)

House (D)

Vermont

Democrats won supermajorities in House and Senate

Wisconsin

Assembly and Senate (R)

Assembly and Senate (D)

Colorado

Democrats won supermajorities in House and Senate

What It Means

A supermajority means enough seats to override a governor’s veto (often two-thirds, but thresholds vary by state). In addition to states where party control flipped entirely, many states – such as Tennessee – saw majorities narrow significantly. Even when a party retains control, a smaller majority can complicate efforts to advance legislation, increase the influence of individual lawmakers and moderate factions, and create greater opportunities for bipartisan negotiation and compromise.

Cornerstone Government Affairs

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

State-Level Races — Trifectas

STATE TRIFECTAS: ONE-PARTY CONTROL Note: Results as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 4. A trifecta means one party holds the governorship and both legislative chambers.

Republican trifectas (23 entering Election Day)

Democratic trifectas (16 entering Election Day)

Divided governments (11 entering Election Day)

Trifectas at Risk of Breaking

Possible New Trifectas

Held by

States

Result

Republican

Georgia, Iowa, Montana, New Hampshire, Ohio, Texas

Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas lost trifectas

Democratic

Maine, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington

New Mexico held, other states still counting

Could go to

States

Result

Either party

Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Wisconsin

Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin gain trifectas

Democrats

Kentucky, North Carolina

No change

Republicans

Alaska, Kansas

No trifecta in Alaska, Kansas looking unlikely

Source: Ballotpedia, 2026 trifecta exposure ratings; trifecta counts as of Oct. 2026. What It Means

A “trifecta” happens when one political party holds control of the governorship and both chambers of a state legislature. Gaining a trifecta can significantly increase a party’s ability to advance its policy priorities, pass legislation, and implement its agenda with fewer political obstacles. Conversely, losing a trifecta introduces additional checks on policymaking, often requiring greater bipartisan negotiation and compromise while increasing the potential for legislative gridlock.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

LAME DUCK AND BEYOND What the outgoing Congress is expected to take up and what comes next in the 120th Congress

Lame Duck — Agenda

LAME DUCK: WHAT’S COVERED AND THE FOCUS Note: Agenda items are expected, not confirmed; leadership sets the lame-duck schedule after the election. What We Expect on the Table

Government Funding The stopgap expires Dec. 11: a full-year deal, another CR or a shutdown. Defense spending will be priority for Administration, expect some to call for use of reconciliation.

Defense Authorization (NDAA) Stalled in the Senate in July; leaders expect a deal after the election.

Expiring Authorities Surface transportation and flood insurance lapse Dec. 11; health extenders Dec. 31.

Focus of the Lame Duck

• The outgoing majority controls the floor until the new Congress is sworn in; we expect leaders in both parties to focus on locking in policy wins and trying to clear the decks before the new Congress. • Retiring and defeated members are unconstrained, so watch for interesting vote coalitions, bipartisan deals and potential impact of attendance issues given narrow majorities in both chambers.

Farm Bill Expired Sept. 30; without action, programs revert to permanent law at year-end.

Nominations and Permitting Confirmations continue; a bipartisan permitting bill is queued for an early vote.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Reconvenes: Nov. 9

What to Watch

KEY DATES AHEAD Note: Dates reflect enacted law and published calendars as of Nov. 4, 2026 and may change.

Nov 9

Nov 10

Nov 18–19

Dec 11

Dec 31

Jan 3

Feb 2027

Congress returns for the lame duck. The session is expected to run until December 18, with a Thanksgiving break, though the chambers could be forced to remain in Washington into the Christmas break to finish the lame duck.

Senate Republicans, Senate Democrats and House Republicans hold leadership elections.

House Democrats elect their leaders, spilling into Nov. 20 if needed. Contested chair and ranking member races likely follow in December.

Stopgap funding expires. The flood insurance program, surface transportation programs and VA authorities lapse the same day; a funding gap would begin Dec. 12.

About 20 health extenders expire, including the Medicare physician payment bump and community health center funding. Farm bill programs revert to permanent law without action.

The 120th Congress is sworn in and the House elects its Speaker. New majorities and committee gavels take effect. Committees should be set by the third or fourth week of January (Jan. 18–29).

The President’s budget request is due Feb. 1. The debt limit could be reached as soon as February (estimate).

Navy cards mark hard deadlines.

Cornerstone Government Affairs

2026 Midterm Election Analysis

KEY TAKEAWAYS — THE 2028 CAMPAIGN

HOW THE 2028 CAMPAIGN SHAPES THE LEGISLATIVE CALENDAR Nov–Dec 2026

Democratic candidates announce right after the midterms; Republicans signal their early plans.

Early 2027

Candidates release their policy platforms over the first months of 2027.

2027

Members of Congress backing each candidate introduce bills in 2027 that mirror that candidate’s platform.

2028

Congressional leaders use the floor agenda to support their nominees.

Now–2028

Candidates travel to the early primary states: SC, NV, NH, NM, MI and VA for Democrats; IA, NH, SC and NV for Republicans.

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2026 Midterm Election Analysis

CORNERSTONE ON THE GROUND

State offices in four early states

FIND MORE INSIGHTS AND ANALYSES IN CORNERSTONE'S ELECTION RESOURCE CENTER

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