ELECTION NIGHT VIEWING GUID E — HOUSE EDITION This memorandum provides readers with a guide to Election Night and identifies some of the races we will be keeping an eye on as returns come in. All poll closures are listed in EST. Races are ordered by likeliness to flip and are shaded blue or red to denote the party that currently holds the seat. 6 pm: polls begin to close in Indiana and Kentucky We’ll be watching: KY-6 and IN-5, two conservative districts that were considered Safe GOP at the outset of the cycle but are now in play. Republicans have spent more than $8 million in KY-6 in an effort to keep this 57% Trump seat in GOP hands, while Democrats have spent $4.2 million against Rep. Victoria Spartz in IN-5. Spartz’s district includes Hamilton County, a suburban area northeast of Indianapolis that was considered an election bellwether in 2024. When Harris failed to build on Biden’s 2020 numbers here it was one of the initial signs that Trump would outperform the polling. Democrats do not need to carry either of these seats, but a win in one of these could portend a big night. District KY-6 (Open) IN-5 (Spartz)
Cook Tossup Likely R
IE Tossup Likely R
Sabato Lean R Likely R
Trump 24 56.6% 57.2%
7 pm: polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia, polls begin to close in Florida and New Hampshire We’ll be watching: Florida, where Republicans drew an aggressive congressional map earlier this year in the hope of flipping four Democratic-held seats. Democrats are confident they’ll be able to hold on to at least two of the GOP’s targets (FL-14 and FL-25) and could retain all four if a wave environment emerges. Democrats want to flip two or more seats in Virginia and have spent $14.1 million against incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman in VA-1. District FL-9 (Soto) VA-2 (Kiggans) VA-1 (Wittman) FL-22 (Open) FL-14 (Castor) FL-25 (Moskowitz) VA-5 (McGuire) SC-1 (Open) FL-13 (Luna)
Cook Lean R Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean R Tossup Lean R
IE Likely R Tilt D Tilt R Tossup Tilt D Tilt D Lean R Tilt R Lean R
Sabato Lean R Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean R Lean R
Trump 24 58.4% 49.5% 51.8% 54.7% 54.7% 54.2% 55.4% 55.7% 56.2%
FL-27 (Salazar) FL-7 (Open) NH-1 (Open) IN-1 (Mrvan) FL-16 (Open) FL-4 (Bean) NH-2 (Goodlander) VA-7 (Vindman)
Lean R Lean R Likely D Likely D Likely R Likely R Safe D Likely D
Lean R Likely R Lean D Likely D Likely R Safe R Safe D Safe D
Lean R Lean R Likely D Likely D Safe R Safe R Likely D Safe D
56.9% 55.7% 49% 49.4% 56.2% 55.2% 48.2% 47.7%
7:30 pm: polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia We’ll be watching: North Carolina and Ohio, two more midcycle redraws that may not net the seats Republicans thought they would—in fact, Democrats may pick up seats in both. Democrats are favored to hold on to NC-1 and flip NC-11, and the races in NC-3 and NC-9 are closer than expected. In Ohio, Republicans hoped to endanger Rep. Marcy Kaptur by placing her in a district Trump won by 10.6 points, but she seems likely to win another term. GOP Rep. Max Miller is in a tough race in OH-7 and may be a slight underdog heading into Election Day. District NC-11 (Open) OH-7 (Miller) NC-1 (Davis) OH-9 (Kaptur) OH-10 (Turner) OH-15 (Carey) OH-1 (Landsman) NC-3 (Murphy) NC-9 (Hudson) NC-13 (Knott) OH-13 (Sykes) NC-7 (Rouzer) NC-14 (Moore) NC-5 (Foxx)
Cook Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean R Lean R Likely D Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely D Likely R Likely R Likely R
IE Tilt D Tilt D Tilt D Tilt D Lean R Lean R Lean D Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe D Safe R Safe R Safe R
Sabato Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean R Lean R Likely D Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely D Safe R Safe R Safe R
Trump 24 54.2% 55.1% 55.3% 54.8% 53.4% 54.5% 50.8% 56.3% 57.3% 57.5% 47.9% 56.3% 56.8% 58.2%
8 pm: polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee; polls begin to close in Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas We’ll be watching: Texas and Pennsylvania, which should provide a good sense of the kind of night it will be for both parties. Republicans redrew the Texas map last year in the hope of flipping as many as five Democratic seats. Of those five, however, only one is a sure Republican win (TX-32), and the three redrawn south Texas seats are favored to stay in Democratic hands. If Democrats are able to hold GOP gains in Texas to a net of 1-2 seats, and flip at least six of the competitive seats in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Michigan they will be well on their way to securing a majority. Beyond Texas, Republicans will look to pick up seats in Tennessee (the redrawn 9th), Alabama (the redrawn 2nd), and Maine (the rural WWW.CGAGROUP.COM |
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2nd, where Trump won by 9). District TX-32 (Open) TN-9 (Open) TX-9 (Open) NJ-7 (Kean) ME-2 (Open) PA-7 (Mackenzie) AL-2 (Figures) PA-8 (Bresnahan) PA-10 (Perry) TX-15 (De La Cruz) MI-7 (Barrett) MI-4 (Huizenga) MI-10 (Open) TX-35 (Open) PA-1 (Fitzpatrick) TX-34 (Gonzalez) MO-2 (Wagner) TX-28 (Cuellar) NJ-2 (Van Drew) NH-1 (Open) KS-2 (Schmidt) MD-1 (Harris) TN-5 (Open) OK-5 (Bice) NJ-9 (Pou) MI-8 (McDonald Rivet) MI-3 (Scholten) MI-1 (Bergman) NH-2 (Goodlander)
Cook Safe R Likely R Likely R Lean D Lean R Lean D Lean R Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Likely R Likely D Likely R Likely D Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe R Safe D
IE Safe R Likely R Lean R Tilt D Lean R Tilt D Tilt R Tilt D Tilt D Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup Tossup Safe R Lean D Likely R Lean D Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe R Safe D
Sabato Safe R Likely R Likely R Lean D Lean R Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean R Lean D Lean R Likely D Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely R Likely D
Trump 24 58% 59.9% 59.5% 49.6% 53.5% 51.1% 56.8% 53.9% 52% 58.5% 49.9% 52% 52.2% 54.7% 49.4% 54.7% 53.1% 54.8% 55.4% 49% 58.6% 57% 60.9% 57.7% 49.2% 50.3% 45.3% 59.8% 48.2%
8:30 pm: polls close in Arkansas We’ll be watching: Rep. French Hill’s AR-2, which should stay in Republican hands but attracted $4 million in GOP outside spending in the waning months of the cycle. District AR-2 (Hill)
Cook Likely R
IE Likely R
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Sabato Likely R
@CGAGROUP
Trump 24 56.6%
9 pm: polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming We’ll be watching: To see if Republicans are able to limit losses, especially in Arizona, Iowa, and Colorado. At this hour polls will close in 13 Republican-held districts where Trump took less than 54.5%, and eight of these districts are in those states. Election raters see Democrats as favored to flip nine seats out of this window. District LA-6 (Open) NE-2 (Open) IA-1 (Miller-Meeks) AZ-6 (Ciscomani) CO-8 (Evans) WI-3 (Van Orden) AZ-1 (Open) IA-3 (Nunn) CO-5 (Crank) IA-2 (Open) NY-17 (Lawler) WI-1 (Steil) MN-1 (Finstad) AZ-2 (Crane) NY-21 (Open) TX-23 (Open) NM-2 (Vazquez) CO-3 (Hurd) NY-3 (Suozzi) CO-4 (Boebert) NY-4 (Gillen) NE-1 (Flood) MN-2 (Open) NY-1 (LaLota) NY-19 (Riley) WY-AL (Open)
Cook Safe R Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean D Likely R Likely D Lean R Likely D Likely R Likely D Safe R Likely D Safe R
IE Safe R Lean D Tilt D Tilt D Tilt D Tilt D Tilt D Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Tilt D Likely R Lean D Likely R Tilt D Likely R Likely D Safe R Safe D Likely R
Sabato Safe R Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean D Lean R Lean D Lean R Likely D Likely R Likely D Likely R Likely D Safe R
Trump 24 64.2% 47% 53.5% 49.8% 49.6% 52.9% 51.1% 51.6% 53.2% 54.3% 49.3% 51.5% 55.1% 56.9% 60% 56.9% 49.9% 53.6% 51.4% 57.9% 48.8% 55.5% 46.1% 54.3% 48.7% 71.6%
10 pm: polls close in Montana, Nevada, and Utah; polls begin to close in Idaho and Oregon We’ll be watching: NV-2, a rural district that has never elected a Democrat—candidates usually struggle to break 40 percent here—but is competitive this cycle. Outgoing Rep. Mark Amodei won each of his elections by more than 15 points, and Trump carried the 2nd by 14 points. Amodei refused to endorse his GOP successor, David Flippo, however, and Democrats landed a quality
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candidate in former Assembly Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson. Incredibly, this district has attracted twice as much outside money as the 3rd district, a crossover seat represented by Democratic Rep. Susie Lee. MT-1 is another open seat worth watching—Trump won here by double digits but Sam Fortag, a smokejumper, has a real chance to flip the seat being vacated by Rep. Ryan Zinke. District UT-1 (Open) MT-1 (Open) NV-2 (Open) NV-3 (Lee) NV-1 (Titus) NV-4 (Horsford)
Cook Safe D Tossup Lean R Likely D Likely D Likely D
IE Safe D Tossup Tilt R Lean D Lean D Likely D
Sabato Safe D Lean D Lean R Likely D Likely D Likely D
Trump 24 36.7% 54.2% 55.8% 49.5% 48% 50.2%
11 pm: polls close in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington We’ll be watching: The Democratic gerrymander in California, which should net Democrats at least four seats and possibly five. GOP Rep. David Valadao has a history of overperforming his district fundamentals, but Democrats have a $6 million spending advantage here and Valadao may not be able to escape the drag of an unpopular President. District CA-1 (Open) CA-41 (Open) CA-6 (Kiley) CA-48 (Open) CA-22 (Valadao) WA-3 (Gluesenkamp Perez) CA-13 (Gray) WA-5 (Baumgartner) CA-45 (Tran) CA-21 (Costa) CA-3 (Bera)
Cook Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Tossup Likely D Likely D Likely R Likely D Safe D Safe D
IE Safe D Safe D Likely D Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tilt D Likely R Safe D Safe D Safe D
Sabato Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely R Likely D Likely D Likely D
Trump 24 42.3% 41.4% 44.2% 47% 49.6% 50.3% 48.4% 53.6% 46.6% 45.7% 43.2%
12 am: polls close in Alaska and Hawaii We’ll be watching: Alaska’s At-Large seat, where freshman Rep. Nick Begich faces a challenge from Independent Bill Hill. If no one breaks 50 percent the race will go to a ranked-choice runoff and a winner won’t be known for weeks. District AK-AL (Begich)
Cook Lean R
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IE Likely R
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Sabato Lean R
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Trump 24 54.5%